Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of April 18

I haven't done a US update in a while. I'm going to cross-check against the CDC website and state websites since I have doubts about the Washington Post / John Hopkins numbers. (In particular how they handle backlogs.)

Cases in the US are up 20% in the last week to 11 per 100k. This puts things about where they were March 10. The low was March 29th.

The Washington Post has the District of Columbia highest in the country at 44/100k, up 204%. But the data is spotty so don't trust the percentages. It seems from the CDC data that they only report data 1-3 days a week, inconsistently, which is going to move a seven-day average up and down a lot. Meanwhile D.C. website reports cases weekly, and the last week they have is April 3. It seems up, though.

East Coast states are higher generally. New York State is at 30/100k, up 26%. California is at 9.6/100k, up 34% according to the Washington Post, but the state website has it at 6.5 per 100k, no increase, when using episode date instead of reported date.

Hospitalizations are flat nationally at 4.3 per 100k. This is the lowest since the pandemic began, slightly below what it was last June.

Deaths are down 17% to 476 per day (7 day average), about where they were last August.

Trump-Appointed Judge Deemed ‘Not Qualified’ by Bar Association Voids Mask Mandate on Planes, Other Travel

A Trump-appointed Federal judge in Florida has voided a national mask mandate for airplanes and other transportation. “Wearing a mask cleans nothing,” U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle wrote in her decision on Monday. “At most, it traps virus droplets. But it neither ‘sanitizes’ the person wearing the mask nor ‘sanitizes’ the conveyance.”

Mizelle, 35, was only eight years out of law school at University of Florida when Trump appointed her to the lifetime position in 2020. The Daily Beast noted at the time that her only trial experience was as an intern, and that she held four clerkships, including one for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Mizelle was rated “not qualified” by the American Bar Association prior to her appointment, citing her lack of experience.

The transportation mandate case on which Mizelle ruled was filed on behalf of a group known as Health Freedom Defense Fund, as well as airline passengers. Mizelle said that the Centers for Disease Control had exceeded its legal authority, that it had failed to justify its decision and follow comment protocols, and that the mandate was “arbitrary and capricious,” according to The Washington Post. The CDC had announced earlier this month that it extended its mask mandate to May 3.

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said it will no longer enforce the mask mandate in light of Mizelle’s decision, according to CNN.

Trevor Bedford writes about a new subvariant that may account for the increase in cases in New York and Massachusetts, and a similar situation in South Africa:

The primary geographic focus for [BA.2.12.1] is New York state, which was up to ~18% frequency as of April 1 from ~1% at the beginning of March. Similarly, Massachusetts has increased to 7% frequency as of April 1 from below 1% frequency at the beginning of March. 7/17

We observe a logistic growth rate of 0.06 per day in NY and 0.11 per day in MA. This is similar in magnitude to the observed advantage of BA.2 over BA.1. 8/17

Atul Gawande on Twitter

On board JetBlue. Attendant just announced that the courts struck down CDC’s 2 week extension of the mask mandate today and JetBlue now dropped its mask requirement. The attendant added he is taking his off.