Researchers at the respected Sharif University of Technology in Tehran have created a computer simulator to test different scenarios for the further spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, across Iran. They concluded that in a best-case scenario — in which the government quarantines all high-risk areas, people strictly obey quarantine rules, and access to sufficient medical supplies is guaranteed — the country would reach the peak of the epidemic in roughly one week, and the death toll would exceed 12,000.
Yet that scenario is unrealistic in all three instances: The government can't impose quarantine, people will not obey quarantine rules, and the medical supply situation is catastrophic thanks to US sanctions and chronic mismanagement.
Accounting for those realities, the researchers estimate Iran will not reach the peak of the epidemic until late May, and they estimate as many as 3.5 million people could die as a result.
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"We have neither the capacity nor the ability to put Tehran under quarantine," Tehran's mayor, Pirouz Hanachi, was forced to admit. "We can't take care of quarantined people. That is in part because of the sanctions."
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Last Thursday, Iran's government applied for a $5 billion (€4.6 billion) loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to fight the epidemic — the first time it has asked the IMF for assistance in over 50 years. Yet, even if it gets the loan, the administration won't be able to shop for much-needed medical supplies: US sanctions make the banking transactions required to secure even medical supplies and humanitarian goods virtually impossible.
It makes me really sad that the places people congregate, and the rituals they desperately cling to for hope in such times of crises may directly lead to their demise. Here's hoping the US loosens...
The city is also a gathering place for extreme religious devotees who refuse to acknowledge the severity of the situation. After weeks of hesitation, authorities in Qom finally decided to close a shrine devoted to Fatima Masumeh, the great-granddaughter of the prophet Mohammed. But on Monday evening worshippers broke through the barricades of the Shiite pilgrimage site to congregate and pray. It was religious opposition that prevented the national government from putting Qom, just 130 kilometers (81 miles) south of the capital, under quarantine.
It makes me really sad that the places people congregate, and the rituals they desperately cling to for hope in such times of crises may directly lead to their demise. Here's hoping the US loosens the sanctions enough that they can at least buy the medical supplies they need to save as many people as possible, because that 3.5M estimate is terrifying to think about. :(
Edit: Well, fuck.
On Monday, sources familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue said the United States was unlikely to ease sanctions on Iran despite an appeal from China that it do so because of the pandemic
I guess that only leaves us with hoping the US reconsiders, or that the International community completely ignores the US sanctions and ships medical supplies to Iran anyways.
[...]
[...]
It makes me really sad that the places people congregate, and the rituals they desperately cling to for hope in such times of crises may directly lead to their demise. Here's hoping the US loosens the sanctions enough that they can at least buy the medical supplies they need to save as many people as possible, because that 3.5M estimate is terrifying to think about. :(
Edit: Well, fuck.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-iran-usa/us-sanctions-iran-seeks-release-of-americans-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKBN2143EN
I guess that only leaves us with hoping the US reconsiders, or that the International community completely ignores the US sanctions and ships medical supplies to Iran anyways.