This was a really great read. It, surprisingly enough, reminded me of ContraPoints, in that it had chunks of thoughtful and meaningful synthesis put forth in a compelling and easy to understand...
This was a really great read. It, surprisingly enough, reminded me of ContraPoints, in that it had chunks of thoughtful and meaningful synthesis put forth in a compelling and easy to understand way. I really appreciate not only what the author brought to the table but how he was able to articulate it as well.
I remember, around the time of Trump's election, discussing the FiveThirtyEight numbers with a lot of people. Nearly everyone I talked to interpreted Nate Silver's forecast not as a forecast, but as a score. Hillary's number was higher, therefore Hillary was going to win. They took comfort in how "low" Trump's number was compared to Clinton's.
I had to do a lot of explaining that I found the ~30% number to be uncomfortably high. I did a lot of verbal modeling with people I knew: "If you rolled a die to determine the presidency, Clinton would get 1 through 4, and Trump would get 5 and 6. Do you have confidence in those odds?" When I explained it to people as a "one in three chance" of him becoming president, their tune changed. That was far more concerning! But, he still wasn't going to actually win, right? Their understanding or misunderstanding of any numerical aspect was tempered by a deep, abiding belief in something more intangible and unquantifiable: the seeming unelectability of him as a candidate. I was someone who was outright scared by that 30% number, but I still had that belief all the same.
If I could add anything to this article, it would be that lived experience lends a lot of weight to the Goofuses out there. I understood the numeric probability of Trump's chances at winning in 2016, but I also have lived my entire life in a world where presidents and candidates have acted presidential. I've lived my entire life in a world where past experience and conduct meant something. That lived truth of mine overrode probabilistic projection; I was genuinely convinced he couldn't win -- numbers be damned. I was convinced of it.
I think a lot of people looked at the coronavirus outbreak the same way. They'd lived their entire lives without experiencing an outbreak of anything. They've always been able to go to the grocery store and get what they want, whenever they want. They always half-ass washed their hands. They've never had their movement restricted. They've never not been able to go where they want, when they want.
My husband is a Gallant and started prepping early, in February. His actions, and postings here on Tildes, caused me to take it seriously in advance too. I remember being at the grocery store, well before any of the panic buying, picking up items "just in case" all while thinking that I wouldn't actually need them. There's no way I'll actually cook these dried beans! I'll forget about them and they'll sit, unused, in my pantry for months!How wrong I was. The reality for me was that, despite being ahead of the curve on things and understanding that there was a very real possibility that this could be a new, unprecedented, and devastating outbreak, it still didn't feel real to me -- even as I was actively taking precautions!
The status quo has a weight and an inertia to it. We often hear about how big, life-altering events don't seem real "until they happen to you". I think a lot of people, even though they knew something might happen, moved forward with the assumption that it still wouldn't happen to them, and that decision had, for many, a full, lived lifetime of reassurance behind it.
I blame lack of leadership not a lack of math. There were plenty of people doing the math. There was no leader who was leading. I posted this link on March 11th The author, did the math and...
I blame lack of leadership not a lack of math. There were plenty of people doing the math. There was no leader who was leading.
about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on
The author wrote the following the day after, on facebook:
I feel the need to be completely candid here. The last five days, and especially the last 24 hours, have absolutely terrified me. After publishing my Twitter thread in STAT News yesterday and getting it in front of tens of thousands of medical professionals, I was desperately hoping that I’d start receiving emails from highly-qualified people explaining why I’m dead wrong.
Instead, the opposite has happened. My email inbox and Twitter messages are a steady stream of notes like this from physicians, infectious disease specialists, hospital administrators, even regional EMS directors:
“I’m an emergency physician at an academic teaching center. Your analysis is 100% correct. Our healthcare system is about to be overwhelmed. We need to act like China has been acting in recent weeks, and we are collectively failing miserably to do so. It is a true national and world emergency and we are responding with a combination of fear, drama, denial, inertia, and managerial incompetence. No doctor practicing today has ever experienced anything like what is about to happen to us.”
A lot of doctors knew something bad was coming. Leadership ignored them.
If exponential growth continues as is, USA will run out of hospital beds in 1-2 months. The only thing that will slow exponential growth is drastic action e.g. closing schools, restricting travel etc...
This will effectively slow both the virus and the economy, as seen in China & Italy, so these actions are only being reluctantly considered.
This was just before the bay area locked down.
In between March 11th and March 15th, I observed panic buying like I have never seen. April 11th, people were buying toilet paper and bottled water (not sure why the bottled water.) April 15th, the shelves were practically bare.
Individuals were slowly doing the math, but there were no leaders taking charge.
When I asked my manager, and a fellow manager if they were prepared, they were both nonplussed. Why wouldn't they be? No one in leadership had warned them to be prepared.
The Bay Area was locked down March 16th. California was locked down March 19th. Sara Cody was incredibly brave to order the shelter in place for the Bay Area when the President had only just stopped calling coronavirus a haox, and when no other leader had taken action outside of China & Italy.
This was a really great read. It, surprisingly enough, reminded me of ContraPoints, in that it had chunks of thoughtful and meaningful synthesis put forth in a compelling and easy to understand way. I really appreciate not only what the author brought to the table but how he was able to articulate it as well.
I remember, around the time of Trump's election, discussing the FiveThirtyEight numbers with a lot of people. Nearly everyone I talked to interpreted Nate Silver's forecast not as a forecast, but as a score. Hillary's number was higher, therefore Hillary was going to win. They took comfort in how "low" Trump's number was compared to Clinton's.
I had to do a lot of explaining that I found the ~30% number to be uncomfortably high. I did a lot of verbal modeling with people I knew: "If you rolled a die to determine the presidency, Clinton would get 1 through 4, and Trump would get 5 and 6. Do you have confidence in those odds?" When I explained it to people as a "one in three chance" of him becoming president, their tune changed. That was far more concerning! But, he still wasn't going to actually win, right? Their understanding or misunderstanding of any numerical aspect was tempered by a deep, abiding belief in something more intangible and unquantifiable: the seeming unelectability of him as a candidate. I was someone who was outright scared by that 30% number, but I still had that belief all the same.
If I could add anything to this article, it would be that lived experience lends a lot of weight to the Goofuses out there. I understood the numeric probability of Trump's chances at winning in 2016, but I also have lived my entire life in a world where presidents and candidates have acted presidential. I've lived my entire life in a world where past experience and conduct meant something. That lived truth of mine overrode probabilistic projection; I was genuinely convinced he couldn't win -- numbers be damned. I was convinced of it.
I think a lot of people looked at the coronavirus outbreak the same way. They'd lived their entire lives without experiencing an outbreak of anything. They've always been able to go to the grocery store and get what they want, whenever they want. They always half-ass washed their hands. They've never had their movement restricted. They've never not been able to go where they want, when they want.
My husband is a Gallant and started prepping early, in February. His actions, and postings here on Tildes, caused me to take it seriously in advance too. I remember being at the grocery store, well before any of the panic buying, picking up items "just in case" all while thinking that I wouldn't actually need them. There's no way I'll actually cook these dried beans! I'll forget about them and they'll sit, unused, in my pantry for months! How wrong I was. The reality for me was that, despite being ahead of the curve on things and understanding that there was a very real possibility that this could be a new, unprecedented, and devastating outbreak, it still didn't feel real to me -- even as I was actively taking precautions!
The status quo has a weight and an inertia to it. We often hear about how big, life-altering events don't seem real "until they happen to you". I think a lot of people, even though they knew something might happen, moved forward with the assumption that it still wouldn't happen to them, and that decision had, for many, a full, lived lifetime of reassurance behind it.
Rounding off uncertainty to a binary value can be dangerous. And yet, apparently irresistible.
I blame lack of leadership not a lack of math. There were plenty of people doing the math. There was no leader who was leading.
I posted this link on March 11th
The author, did the math and claimed we would see
The author wrote the following the day after, on facebook:
A lot of doctors knew something bad was coming. Leadership ignored them.
I posted the following comment on March 15th
This was just before the bay area locked down.
In between March 11th and March 15th, I observed panic buying like I have never seen. April 11th, people were buying toilet paper and bottled water (not sure why the bottled water.) April 15th, the shelves were practically bare.
Individuals were slowly doing the math, but there were no leaders taking charge.
When I asked my manager, and a fellow manager if they were prepared, they were both nonplussed. Why wouldn't they be? No one in leadership had warned them to be prepared.
The Bay Area was locked down March 16th. California was locked down March 19th. Sara Cody was incredibly brave to order the shelter in place for the Bay Area when the President had only just stopped calling coronavirus a haox, and when no other leader had taken action outside of China & Italy.