New York City’s coronavirus outbreak grew so large by early March that the city became the primary source of new infections in the United States, new research reveals, as thousands of infected people traveled from the city and seeded outbreaks around the country.
The research indicates that a wave of infections swept from New York City through much of the country before the city began setting social distancing limits to stop the growth. That helped to fuel outbreaks in Louisiana, Texas, Arizona and as far away as the West Coast.
The findings are drawn from geneticists’ tracking signature mutations of the virus, travel histories of infected people and models of the outbreak by infectious disease experts.
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“Through Feb. 27, this country only had 14 cases,” he said during a briefing. “We did that isolation and that contact tracing, and it was very successful. But then, when the virus more exploded, it got beyond the public health capacity.”
But the new estimates of coronavirus infections are vastly higher than those official counts.
By late February, as the world’s attention shifted to a dire outbreak in Italy, those 14 known American cases were a tiny fraction of the thousands of undetected infections that the researchers estimated were spreading from person to person across this country.
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There are other signs that the outbreak was worse at an earlier point than previously known. This week, health officials in Santa Clara County, Calif., announced a newly discovered coronavirus-linked death on Feb. 6, weeks earlier than what had been previously thought to be the first death caused by the virus in the United States.
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Dr. Vespignani said he and his research team warned officials of the silent spread, posting some of their early projections in mid-February. “We were talking to officials here, and it was the same reaction we got in Italy, in the U.K., in Spain,” Dr. Vespignani said. “They told me, ‘OK, that’s happening on your computer, not in reality.’ Look,” he added, “No one’s going to shut down a country based on a model.”
The virus moved under the radar swiftly in February and March, doctors and researchers said, because few cities or states had adequate surveillance systems in place. And testing, if it was being done at all, was haphazard. Emergency rooms were busy preparing for the predicted onslaught and likely missed some early virus-related deaths, and did not have the time or tools to verify infections on the fly, experts said.
Yup. Unfortunately, also true. Especially here in the US, as seen from the way some states are STILL resisting enforcing policies that would slow the virus down. It bothered me in February and it...
By late February, as the world’s attention shifted to a dire outbreak in Italy, those 14 known American cases were a tiny fraction of the thousands of undetected infections that the researchers estimated were spreading from person to person across this country.
Yup.
he added, “No one’s going to shut down a country based on a model.”
Unfortunately, also true. Especially here in the US, as seen from the way some states are STILL resisting enforcing policies that would slow the virus down.
It bothered me in February and it will probably never stop upsetting me, the lack of testing in the US. I'm happy to debate the necessity and ramifications of various policies with someone, but without widespread systematic testing at a national level there is no data just anecdotes, and we're just farting into the wind.
On March 2nd, with two hours until my plane was going to take off, I called off a trip to NYC. At the time I felt a bit foolish, a little overly cautious... but in hindsight it was such a good...
On March 2nd, with two hours until my plane was going to take off, I called off a trip to NYC. At the time I felt a bit foolish, a little overly cautious... but in hindsight it was such a good move.
That days-long incubation period - where you're spreading the disease but it's not obvious you have it - is brutal.
From the article:
[...]
[...]
[...]
Yup.
Unfortunately, also true. Especially here in the US, as seen from the way some states are STILL resisting enforcing policies that would slow the virus down.
It bothered me in February and it will probably never stop upsetting me, the lack of testing in the US. I'm happy to debate the necessity and ramifications of various policies with someone, but without widespread systematic testing at a national level there is no data just anecdotes, and we're just farting into the wind.
On March 2nd, with two hours until my plane was going to take off, I called off a trip to NYC. At the time I felt a bit foolish, a little overly cautious... but in hindsight it was such a good move.
That days-long incubation period - where you're spreading the disease but it's not obvious you have it - is brutal.