Since he's making videos that are basically powerpoint slides, it really matters what he's actually saying. To that point, Perun has been consistently striking in his observations and analysis....
Since he's making videos that are basically powerpoint slides, it really matters what he's actually saying. To that point, Perun has been consistently striking in his observations and analysis. Whenever something large happens in the war I try to listen to his take because he delineates clearly between known fact and speculation, allowing for a more honest discussion around the topic at hand.
This is another good one. He waited a week to see how the situation developed and to make sure he didn't rush out a script full of speculative nonsense, making his videos one of the better ones to listen to by default. It's levelheaded, well structured, and informative.
Agreed. This is a major reason I appreciate him and his content - high objectivity and high quality while being clearly distinct about the degree of certainty (or lack thereof) on each piece of data.
He waited a week to see how the situation developed and to make sure he didn't rush out a script full of speculative nonsense
Agreed. This is a major reason I appreciate him and his content - high objectivity and high quality while being clearly distinct about the degree of certainty (or lack thereof) on each piece of data.
Description copied from Perun's summary: For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian...
Description copied from Perun's summary:
For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.
On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.
Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to us being "more than two and a half years in" to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say "almost two and a half years in"
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (To be completed 19/08 due to late release):
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:45 — The War In August 2024
00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning?
00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia
00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine
00:17:17 — Defence Lines
00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent
00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations
00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions
00:44:30 — The Russian Response
00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic?
00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives
01:00:12 — What Comes Next?
01:03:29 — Conclusions
01:04:42 — Channel Update
William Spaniel has been covering similar things, but I think the most interesting takeaway of this video is that it undercuts the Russian threats of escalation that they've been using to stall...
William Spaniel has been covering similar things, but I think the most interesting takeaway of this video is that it undercuts the Russian threats of escalation that they've been using to stall more powerful western aid to Ukraine.
I hadn't heard of Spaniel, thank you for giving me another channel to look into. Agreed on demonstrating the lack of teeth behind Putin's constant nuclear sabre rattling. It seems like threatening...
I hadn't heard of Spaniel, thank you for giving me another channel to look into.
Agreed on demonstrating the lack of teeth behind Putin's constant nuclear sabre rattling. It seems like threatening nuclear war over the slightest thing is a national pastime for him.
@ 28:40-ish, worth noting that there have been more bridge strikes down that very river by now. Further strangling the Russian logistics in the area he marks with Paint. The Guardian, obviously a...
@ 28:40-ish, worth noting that there have been more bridge strikes down that very river by now. Further strangling the Russian logistics in the area he marks with Paint. The Guardian, obviously a western source but usually reliable for things like this. Regardless of whether Ukraine will get that territory or not, it will most certainly strain what's strained Russia's entire military invasion - logistics.
All in all, damn that was a good video, neutral and 'looking from above' too.
I've been waiting for Perun's take on this as he does a very good job of consolidating the know/proposed information and displaying it in a reasonable fashion (you know, real reporting). I've...
I've been waiting for Perun's take on this as he does a very good job of consolidating the know/proposed information and displaying it in a reasonable fashion (you know, real reporting).
I've found this entire offensive fascinating, and I'm really curious how this affects the scope of the war. As always, the answer seems to be , "well it depends" mixed with "we'll have to see", but it's certainly actually a thing and not just some doomed incursion.
In my view, at the minimum it means Russia/Putin doesn't get to relax and strip border security to push all their military resources into Ukrainian territory - they've now been shown definitively...
I've found this entire offensive fascinating, and I'm really curious how this affects the scope of the war.
In my view, at the minimum it means Russia/Putin doesn't get to relax and strip border security to push all their military resources into Ukrainian territory - they've now been shown definitively that they can, and will get butt-bleeped by leaving themselves vulnerable like that and will almost certainly be forced to allocate more of their resources and manpower to hold their own borders, thus (hopefully / in theory) reducing the pressure in actively contested Ukrainian territory, at least when taken as a whole.
In the long term it certainly appears to be that way. The fact that Ukraine will, most likely, also get their own soldiers back with POW exchanges is something Perun's touched more upon than...
In the long term it certainly appears to be that way. The fact that Ukraine will, most likely, also get their own soldiers back with POW exchanges is something Perun's touched more upon than others when really, this is pretty major.
Given the 4:1 causality ratio, and the fact that Russia will on average need more manpower/km after this is actually really bad for them from a pure mathematical perspective. Yet, Perun also notes that this + POW exchanges is difficult to directly translate to the war effort because modern war is so complex, and that the current Russian offensives in other fronts may not be directly affected.
Not too mention that there have been places where Ukraine has had a high causality rate in this operation. It's too early to tell whether that in particular will have been worth it. Perun did not hesitate to mention this, despite it often being less reported in western media.
The best part of the video though in my opinion? Him reversing the political analysis, looking at the immediate political and diplomatic consequences and thereby looking what the reasoning may have been for Ukraine. Given how hectic it has been he's touched on some really hot spots more easily when I've seen other analysis being 'well, maybe this, maybe that'.
For example, the caution the west had for using their weapons on Russian soil? Well, Ukraine has called the bluff instead of the west and boy have they succeeded. We're most likely going to see Ukraine being more loose with their weaponry. Given how the west is tired of Russia, and also dealing with other conflicts, while still really wanting Ukraine to win, well, this at least is a big boon for Ukraine.
Since he's making videos that are basically powerpoint slides, it really matters what he's actually saying. To that point, Perun has been consistently striking in his observations and analysis. Whenever something large happens in the war I try to listen to his take because he delineates clearly between known fact and speculation, allowing for a more honest discussion around the topic at hand.
This is another good one. He waited a week to see how the situation developed and to make sure he didn't rush out a script full of speculative nonsense, making his videos one of the better ones to listen to by default. It's levelheaded, well structured, and informative.
Agreed. This is a major reason I appreciate him and his content - high objectivity and high quality while being clearly distinct about the degree of certainty (or lack thereof) on each piece of data.
Description copied from Perun's summary:
For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.
On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.
Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to us being "more than two and a half years in" to the Russian full-scale invasion. I meant to say "almost two and a half years in"
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading (To be completed 19/08 due to late release):
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:42 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:45 — The War In August 2024
00:05:49 — Preparation & Forewarning?
00:12:41 — Force Composition: Russia
00:14:03 — Force Composition: Ukraine
00:17:17 — Defence Lines
00:28:21 — A Statement Of Potential Intent
00:31:48 — (Tentative) Observations
00:42:03 — Politics & Perceptions
00:44:30 — The Russian Response
00:51:21 — The Military Dynamic?
00:56:28 — Assessing Objectives
01:00:12 — What Comes Next?
01:03:29 — Conclusions
01:04:42 — Channel Update
William Spaniel has been covering similar things, but I think the most interesting takeaway of this video is that it undercuts the Russian threats of escalation that they've been using to stall more powerful western aid to Ukraine.
I hadn't heard of Spaniel, thank you for giving me another channel to look into.
Agreed on demonstrating the lack of teeth behind Putin's constant nuclear sabre rattling. It seems like threatening nuclear war over the slightest thing is a national pastime for him.
@ 28:40-ish, worth noting that there have been more bridge strikes down that very river by now. Further strangling the Russian logistics in the area he marks with Paint. The Guardian, obviously a western source but usually reliable for things like this. Regardless of whether Ukraine will get that territory or not, it will most certainly strain what's strained Russia's entire military invasion - logistics.
All in all, damn that was a good video, neutral and 'looking from above' too.
I've been waiting for Perun's take on this as he does a very good job of consolidating the know/proposed information and displaying it in a reasonable fashion (you know, real reporting).
I've found this entire offensive fascinating, and I'm really curious how this affects the scope of the war. As always, the answer seems to be , "well it depends" mixed with "we'll have to see", but it's certainly actually a thing and not just some doomed incursion.
In my view, at the minimum it means Russia/Putin doesn't get to relax and strip border security to push all their military resources into Ukrainian territory - they've now been shown definitively that they can, and will get butt-bleeped by leaving themselves vulnerable like that and will almost certainly be forced to allocate more of their resources and manpower to hold their own borders, thus (hopefully / in theory) reducing the pressure in actively contested Ukrainian territory, at least when taken as a whole.
In the long term it certainly appears to be that way. The fact that Ukraine will, most likely, also get their own soldiers back with POW exchanges is something Perun's touched more upon than others when really, this is pretty major.
Given the 4:1 causality ratio, and the fact that Russia will on average need more manpower/km after this is actually really bad for them from a pure mathematical perspective. Yet, Perun also notes that this + POW exchanges is difficult to directly translate to the war effort because modern war is so complex, and that the current Russian offensives in other fronts may not be directly affected.
Not too mention that there have been places where Ukraine has had a high causality rate in this operation. It's too early to tell whether that in particular will have been worth it. Perun did not hesitate to mention this, despite it often being less reported in western media.
The best part of the video though in my opinion? Him reversing the political analysis, looking at the immediate political and diplomatic consequences and thereby looking what the reasoning may have been for Ukraine. Given how hectic it has been he's touched on some really hot spots more easily when I've seen other analysis being 'well, maybe this, maybe that'.
For example, the caution the west had for using their weapons on Russian soil? Well, Ukraine has called the bluff instead of the west and boy have they succeeded. We're most likely going to see Ukraine being more loose with their weaponry. Given how the west is tired of Russia, and also dealing with other conflicts, while still really wanting Ukraine to win, well, this at least is a big boon for Ukraine.