Summary: You can predict accurately the bell weather states, and currently those are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Separately, the polls this far out are...
Summary: You can predict accurately the bell weather states, and currently those are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Separately, the polls this far out are much less reliable, but they are definitely trending blue...
Added the actually to the title because, given how swing states are often decided long before the election, I was pretty surprised this was a serious question. The answer is not really, but we can...
Added the actually to the title because, given how swing states are often decided long before the election, I was pretty surprised this was a serious question.
The answer is not really, but we can figure out which states will be bellwether states (states whose results are similar to the national result).
Summary: You can predict accurately the bell weather states, and currently those are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Separately, the polls this far out are much less reliable, but they are definitely trending blue...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
(Still gotta get out and vote)
Added the actually to the title because, given how swing states are often decided long before the election, I was pretty surprised this was a serious question.
The answer is not really, but we can figure out which states will be bellwether states (states whose results are similar to the national result).