9 votes

2020 US presidential election simulator

11 comments

  1. [8]
    Kuromantis
    (edited )
    Link
    While this is pretty simplistic and the margins are pretty odd (after 100/500 predictions, the average electoral map given is a 351-187 Biden win (includes MI, WI, PA, AZ and one of GA or OH all...

    While this is pretty simplistic and the margins are pretty odd (after 100/500 predictions, the average electoral map given is a 351-187 Biden win (includes MI, WI, PA, AZ and one of GA or OH all going for Biden) and the site says Georgia and Ohio are the true tossups, which is pretty absurd), it does help you visualize what "safe", "likely", "lean" and "tossup" looks like, as well as flukes/really unlikely outcomes and sometimes the plain randomness of elections in general.

    After that you can just keep resetting and get the <1% absurd results (Trump wins 53% of the popular vote and 350 EC seats w/3rd parties and Colorado is competitive, Biden wins by 20 points and Trump has under 100 EC votes) for fun.

    4 votes
    1. [3]
      TheRtRevKaiser
      Link Parent
      FiveThirtyEight has Georgia as +1.7 for Biden right now. I would tend to be skeptical of that as well, but GA is one of the southern states that has been "turning purple" for a while now and the...

      FiveThirtyEight has Georgia as +1.7 for Biden right now. I would tend to be skeptical of that as well, but GA is one of the southern states that has been "turning purple" for a while now and the polls have been increasingly bad for Trump lately. I wouldn't put up the "Mission Accomplished" banner yet, but the way things are looking right now, some "lean R" states could possibly be in play.

      3 votes
      1. [2]
        Loire
        Link Parent
        Georgia is well known for playing dirty with democracy.
        4 votes
        1. TheRtRevKaiser
          Link Parent
          Yeah I originally had something about that in my comment, but I didn't have any sources for it at the time and I was feeling too lazy to go get them.

          Yeah I originally had something about that in my comment, but I didn't have any sources for it at the time and I was feeling too lazy to go get them.

          1 vote
    2. [3]
      Nook
      Link Parent
      Funny how US presidential elections are also exciting and fascinating for foreigners too, at least that's the case for me.

      Funny how US presidential elections are also exciting and fascinating for foreigners too, at least that's the case for me.

      1 vote
      1. patience_limited
        Link Parent
        The U.S. model of "democracy" has at least as much potential for arcane fascination as the ruleset for any game system, events are published in one of the most prevalent global languages, our...

        The U.S. model of "democracy" has at least as much potential for arcane fascination as the ruleset for any game system, events are published in one of the most prevalent global languages, our cultural exports feature political drama heavily... There's plenty of material for a global fan base, regardless of how directly the results impact them. And that whole nuclear Armageddon thing.

        8 votes
      2. Kuromantis
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Well, the electoral system is super weird and fits better in a video game than the modern world and the primaries last 18 months so...

        Well, the electoral system is super weird and fits better in a video game than the modern world and the primaries last 18 months so...

        3 votes
    3. EscReality
      Link Parent
      It actually really bugs me that in the 20 or so times I did it Colorado stayed bright blue. We are a very purple/centric state that should be switching between blue and red.

      Colorado is competitive

      It actually really bugs me that in the 20 or so times I did it Colorado stayed bright blue. We are a very purple/centric state that should be switching between blue and red.

  2. thistle
    Link
    Wait, I think it's broken, Kanye doesn't ever win...

    Wait, I think it's broken, Kanye doesn't ever win...

    6 votes
  3. [2]
    wakamex
    Link
    anyone else notice "National Uncertaintity" o_O

    anyone else notice "National Uncertaintity" o_O

    1 vote
    1. Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      Yeah, although I'm not exactly sure if the site has any explanation for us when it comes to the meaning of that. Given the state uncertainty thing below, I assume it's a bell curve thing.

      Yeah, although I'm not exactly sure if the site has any explanation for us when it comes to the meaning of that. Given the state uncertainty thing below, I assume it's a bell curve thing.

      1 vote