Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - August 11

Russia struggles to replenish its troops in Ukraine

As Russia continues to suffer losses in its invasion of Ukraine, now nearing its sixth month, the Kremlin has refused to announce a full-blown mobilization — a move that could be very unpopular for President Vladimir Putin. That has led instead to a covert recruitment effort that includes using prisoners to make up the manpower shortage.

This also is happening amid reports that hundreds of Russian soldiers are refusing to fight and trying to quit the military.

I never would have predicted this.

Kissinger has changed his mind on Ukraine. After seeing what this war has been like, he no longer thinks the problem was Ukrainian alignment with the West. He now thinks it’s the solution.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1558534988144017410

The tweet points to this WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/henry-kissinger-is-worried-about-disequilibrium-11660325251

From the Washington Post:

Russian forces in the Kherson area are retreating to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River after Ukrainian forces destroyed the bridge over Nova Kakhovka Dam, according to the Mykolayiv regional governor, Vitaliy Kim. The bridge was the last one Russians could use to transport supplies to several thousand troops on the Dnipro’s western bank, and the damage comes just weeks after Ukrainian forces destroyed the Antonovsky Bridge.

There's been talk about an attack near Kherson for weeks. Kherson is itself on the west bank. Seems like it's cut off, and it's all set up?

But just yesterday, the Washington Post had a story about how it seems unlikely:

On the Kherson front lines, little sign of a Ukrainian offensive

Ukrainian military officials are tight-lipped on any timeline for a wider push, but say they need more supplies of Western weapons before one can happen. Ukraine lacks the capacity to launch a full-scale offensive anywhere along the 1,200-mile front line, one security official conceded.

“We have to be honest — for now, Ukraine doesn’t have a sufficient number of weapons systems for a counteroffensive,” said a defense and intelligence adviser to the Ukrainian government who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

“It’s still possible to get a result, but if so it will be the result of smart Ukraine strategy more than of countering Russia with equal power,” the adviser said. “It’s very difficult to match them.”

In an interview this week, Ukrainian army commander Major General Dmytro Marchenko also said “small batches” of Western military aid means carrying out offensive actions is “very difficult” but expressed optimism that the dynamic would change soon.

“I think once we get the full package of this aid, our counteroffensive will be very quick,” he told RBC newspaper, urging people of Kherson to be “a little patient.”

“It will not be as long as everyone expects,” Marchenko added.

So who knows.

If they do attack, destroying the bridges would make the river the most likely stopping point?

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 16 (Institute for the Study of War)

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in Crimea on August 16. Local reports and videos show a series of explosions at a Russian ammunition depot and a transformer substation in Dzhankoiskyi District and an airfield near Hvardiiske, Crimea. These explosions both caused significant damage to Russian resources and seriously disrupted Russian logistics. Russian forces have used Dzhankoi as a railway hub for transporting troops and equipment to occupied settlements in southern Zaporizhia Oblast, including Melitopol. Russian authorities temporarily suspended passenger rail service from Russia into Crimea following the attack.

An /r/dataisbeautiful post about Ukrainian Control over Territory + Military Deaths

Estonia and Finland have agreed to unite their coastal defense which would close access to the Baltic Sea for Russian warships.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1558715351298449408