vektor's recent activity
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Comment on New evidence found for Planet 9 in ~space
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Comment on New evidence found for Planet 9 in ~space
vektor Link ParentI'm not saying this Planet 9 is just 5 earth masses of asteroids in a trench coat. If the paper is accurate, it's likely one big "dwarf planet". Question is, considering we know so little about...I'm not saying this Planet 9 is just 5 earth masses of asteroids in a trench coat. If the paper is accurate, it's likely one big "dwarf planet". Question is, considering we know so little about this region: Is there likely to be little enough other crap (beyond the 5 earth masses that the research identified) in its general vicinity to suggest it's actually a planet, and not just a "improper" planet like pluto? Like, orbital periods out there are so freakishly long, the law of "if something intersected the orbit of this planet, it was probably yeeted or collided with at some point in the past" doesn't really apply. So there could be a lot of other stuff out there intersecting its orbit, meaning it's not a planet.
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Comment on New evidence found for Planet 9 in ~space
vektor Link ParentBut is there any evidence that this is actually a honest-to-god planet? If it's that far out, my guess is that there's so much crap floating about out there that calling this one a planet is about...But is there any evidence that this is actually a honest-to-god planet? If it's that far out, my guess is that there's so much crap floating about out there that calling this one a planet is about as loose of a decision as calling pluto one. Or is it that Planet 9 is hypothesized to exist in a part of space that is otherwise mostly empty? Some cursory reading suggests there's a noisy band (Kuiper belt) 30-50 AU out (which is pretty much Plutos orbital parameters) and the oort cloud (also only hypothesized) is supposed to be 2000 AU out. That'd suggest that the 50-2000 band is... almost empty? Though I guess once we start looking with adequate tools, we'll probably find a lot of stuff there? I'd certainly call it a stretch to call P9 a planet, when we don't know yet whether its orbital track is at all cleared out.
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Comment on Russia's meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead in ~news
vektor Link ParentAs an upper bound of just how far the casualty estimates go: Ukraine's official MoD estimate for the number of Russian casualties, so including wounded and missing, is currently sitting at 460000....As an upper bound of just how far the casualty estimates go: Ukraine's official MoD estimate for the number of Russian casualties, so including wounded and missing, is currently sitting at 460000. The usual heuristic is 2 wounded per dead, but there's credible estimates that Russia has at least at times fared worse than that due to nonexistant medevac. We'll go with 2:1 anyway, giving about 150000 dead. Again, that's something of an upper bound because Ukraine is likely to overcount by some unknown amount. Though Ukrainian MoD figures aren't the hopeless propaganda numbers as those by the Russian MoD are.
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Comment on Ukrainians contemplate the once unthinkable: Losing the war with Russia in ~misc
vektor (edited )Link ParentNow I don't mean to be too high on hopium here, but both revolutions and collapses of war economies seem impossible until they happen, then they appear inevitable. I don't think hope of a regime...The effect of sanctions was weaker than hoped, but it's still important. Russians rising up against Putin was naive nonsense from the beginning (plus the alternatives to Putin are hardly better)
Now I don't mean to be too high on hopium here, but both revolutions and collapses of war economies seem impossible until they happen, then they appear inevitable. I don't think hope of a regime change in Russia in 2022 was unfounded, it just didn't happen. And the fact that it seems like it wasn't even close doesn't (IMO) mean anything: History is full of "successful"* revolutions, it's full of "nahh, that's never going to amount to a revolution", but there's precious few situations where it looked genuinely close. Which IMO means that there must've been close calls that we can't readily identify as such. Mostly because a revolution's fate is kinda mostly decided before it's even really visible. A coup that doesn't capture the presidential palace isn't much of a coup, a popular revolution that doesn't mobilize millions in protests isn't much of a popular revolution.
As for the war economy, I'm not saying Russia's is close to collapse, though certainly closer than it was in 2022-01-01. But that it trucks along as if nothing happened is to do with massive government intervention to force it to do so. If that government loses its leverage, my guess is the Russian economy will be gone in no time flat.
* successful refering to achieving regime change, not necessarily improving the overall situation
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor Link ParentOh no doubt. A little bit more significant than DC relatively speaking. I was more comparing DC and how it came to be to Canberra. In both cases, putting the capital there was basically a decision...Oh no doubt. A little bit more significant than DC relatively speaking. I was more comparing DC and how it came to be to Canberra. In both cases, putting the capital there was basically a decision of "let's put it in the boonies, so the second largest city can't get mad if we make the largest city capital". I think that's a mostly accurate description of both capitals, and probably a few more around the world. Berlin on the other hand is kind of the obvious choice, being the biggest city, and otherwise being somewhat significant. It's just that it's quite unremarkable by many metrics. I'm sure if you asked around what Germany's culturally most important city is, the answers will be split many different ways. Or similarly, if you checked which cities get what level of traffic from international tours, I wouldn't expect Berlin to lead that chart.
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor Link ParentI've heard that before and I'm not quite buying it. Lobbyists probably aren't scared off by having to travel 2-3h from their company's HQ to the capital. And if it's that politicians will treat......in fact, that's often promulgated as a virtuous arrangement to avoid conflicts of interest in governance...
I've heard that before and I'm not quite buying it. Lobbyists probably aren't scared off by having to travel 2-3h from their company's HQ to the capital. And if it's that politicians will treat favorably wherever their workplace happens to be, that bias probably still exists, it just benefits a different interest group. If Sacramento, CA gets preferential treatment over SF and LA, that makes about as much sense to me as Wyoming having equal power in the senate as CA. It's about shifting political capital (heh) around, but I don't see a good argument for where it ought to be except "everyone gets equal say".
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor Link ParentI recall reading about "digga" being basically a sterilized appropriation of the n-word, originating in German hip hop. Not sure if it was academically sound to a linguist's standards though.I recall reading about "digga" being basically a sterilized appropriation of the n-word, originating in German hip hop. Not sure if it was academically sound to a linguist's standards though.
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor Link ParentI think it deserves mentioning that all that baggage doesn't really make it out of the US, beyond social media outrage if someone did say it. Like, if I wasn't so online and only slightly more...but on the flip side they go around saying the N-word with no consideration to the weight it carries for people from the US despite how glaringly obvious from American media (outside of hip-hop/rap culture) how negative that word is.
I think it deserves mentioning that all that baggage doesn't really make it out of the US, beyond social media outrage if someone did say it. Like, if I wasn't so online and only slightly more naive, all I would know is that it's used in a positive way in rap culture. And sure, there's more-or-less equivalent words in German - we have "Neger" which is so old fashioned it's more a curiosity if someone actually still uses it. "Negro" even more so, makes you sound like you're born in 1880, with monocle, pipe and top hat. The btter point of comparison though are slurs that carry similar amount of punch that upstanding Germans avoid like the plague, mostly for groups which have suffered discrimination more consistently and at greater scale - Turks, Roma, Jews.
What I find the most interesting aspect of this all though is that there seems to be a better understanding of use-mention-distinction in Germany. I feel like I could quote bad words here if I needed to. There's no "K-Wort" for referring to a slur about Turkish people. You either use the word, in which case you're probably an asshole. Or you mention the word, in which case you're not using it, and that's generally an understood distinction; perhaps you do it because it's important to convey exactly what is said. Or if you want to keep it really proper, you just report that "X called Y by a racist slur" and that might also be all the information you need. There's no dancing around it, you either mention the word, or you don't. In that way, it isn't that "we don't know any better", it's just that some things that count as dropping an n-bomb in the US are here simply considered quoting someone who did.
how Germans view Americans as boorish for our tendency to make jokes about WW2/Nazis/Hitler.
On that I'd just like to add that there's quite a whole host of jokes you can make here that are entirely acceptable. I feel like the line of what is too much is a bit different between the US and Germany. For example, mockery of a certain failed Austrian artist and his drug habits is fully accepted. I imagine there's less room for tongue-in-cheek glorification, as Germans don't do tongue-in-cheek, ever. (/s) There's also certain topics around the victims of the regime that are, after 80 years, still a bit of a case of "too soon". And while I'm sure Americans would agree that it's no good to make light of victims, who is or isn't a victim is a matter of historical debate. I'm sure jokes to the effect of "all nazi soldiers were nazis" go over real well with grandkids of drafted soldiers, and there certainly is some heightened sensitivity around who's to blame for the horrors of that time. I do wonder what jokes you think are considered on different sides of the red line in the US vs in Germany.
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor Link ParentNever been to australia, so I can't comment. I'm seeing some parallels though, in that Canberra was a compromise capital, and basically decentralized the country more. The historical reason for...Never been to australia, so I can't comment. I'm seeing some parallels though, in that Canberra was a compromise capital, and basically decentralized the country more. The historical reason for that being much different, but the outcome is similar in that the capital just isn't that important outside politics.
Also, obligatory mention of the US too here I suppose. DC is a hamlet.
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Comment on Iran launches dozens of drones toward Israel in ~news
vektor Link ParentThat, and a nuclear capability that you've never tested isn't a very credible deterrence. Israel is pretty damn alone in that regard - they're the only nuclear power I can think of that has not...That, and a nuclear capability that you've never tested isn't a very credible deterrence.
Israel is pretty damn alone in that regard - they're the only nuclear power I can think of that has not done any testing according to public records, though there are 2 events that were possibly(probably?) Israeli nuclear tests. They're also the only country that is suspected of having nukes but doesn't actually admit to them. That for example NK has conducted tests is well known. It's a very unmistakable way of saying "would everybody please stop messing with me!", and that in itself is probably seen as a decent reason to test the thing.
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Comment on Iran launches dozens of drones toward Israel in ~news
vektor Link ParentI think right now Israel wants to, at least on the international stage, talk up the damage and their willingness to respond. This gives Iran the opportunity to declare "victory" without actually...I think right now Israel wants to, at least on the international stage, talk up the damage and their willingness to respond. This gives Iran the opportunity to declare "victory" without actually having achieved anything. So I expect Israel to act very concerned and serious. Lots of "we can't give any details because of OpSec", "we're weighing our options", "Iran's attack on military and civilian targets was oh so bad", and once Iran has declared victory, they just don't do anything.
Maybe it's confirmation bias, but I'm reading the whole "Israel will coordinate its actions with its allies" as a silent admission of "yeah, the US doesn't want an escalation and we don't either, so if this was the entire retaliatory strike, we can leave it at this." but I admit that's possibly more fortune-telling than news-reading.
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor Link ParentI see certain parallels between the way Romania and Germany feel about their capitals. Now I'm wondering whether other European countries are decentralized to the same degree as Germany. Because...I see certain parallels between the way Romania and Germany feel about their capitals. Now I'm wondering whether other European countries are decentralized to the same degree as Germany. Because if you look at England, and even more so France, you'll notice that their economic, political, probably even cultural center of gravity is undoubtedly London respectively Paris. Sure, stuff also happens elsewhere in the country, but most of the important stuff happens there, most of the big companies are there.
Germany on the other hand.... not one German car manufacturer has their main base in Berlin, some of them are in towns that are otherwise completely unremarkable. Steel industry (or what's left of it and/or has replaced it) is in the Ruhr area. Logistics and Finance are centered around Frankfurt (air, rail, banks), Hamburg (port) and Munich (insurance). Berlin has respectable universities, but again, most of it is distributed across big towns and small cities all over. In fact, while in most countries I expect governmental redistribution flows from the economically highly productive capital to the disadvantaged but crucial countryside, in Germany it's the other way around. Beyond being the political center of Germany, Berlin is really not that important to the country overall, even considering its quite substantial population.
I do wonder what it's like in other European countries.
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Comment on In Berlin, I experience icks I never thought possible in ~travel
vektor LinkIn the interest of cultural exchange, I'll leave this well-known german copy-pasta here. In the interest of providing an authentic german copy-pasta experience, I'll leave the machine translation...In the interest of cultural exchange, I'll leave this well-known german copy-pasta here. In the interest of providing an authentic german copy-pasta experience, I'll leave the machine translation completely intact:
Oh Berlin. What is Berlin? Berlin is the city that Germans should be ashamed of on the international stage. If you compare Berlin with other European capitals such as London, Paris, Madrid and Amsterdam, it makes any decent person's face turn red with shame. Even small countries such as Austria, Belgium or Switzerland have internationally presentable cities with a high quality of life in Vienna, Brussels and Zurich. Germany is punished with Berlin, the capital of failure. Berlin is home to by far the most assholes in the entire country. Deutsche Bahn, the Bundestag, Air Berlin and the Axel Springer publishing house are just a few examples of the incompetent scum that are housed here.
Glorious times are long gone, this city is on its knees. The Berliner is a lazy bastard through and through. Character traits that would be considered pure laziness, unfriendliness, incompetence, dissocial personality disorder and stupidity in any civilized culture are declared by Berliners to be Berlin characteristics without further ado. Another central characteristic is the all-dominant inferiority complex. This is why Berliners project massive feelings of hatred onto anyone who is better than them in any way. The southern Germans in particular, who are vastly superior to him in all respects, are a thorn in his side. He envies their success and Munich is at the top of his hate list. This city is everything and has everything the Berliner would like to be and have. The fact that Munich finances the Berliner's lottery life is of no interest to the Berliner, he even secretly believes he deserves it. Instead of freeing himself from his lethargy caused by envy and resentment and turning his city around, he indulges in asocial parasitism and still thinks highly of his supposed cosmopolitan city.
Culturally, Berlin is rather weak, with great works dating back a long time. Even pronouncing the letter "g" as a "j" is considered a great cultural achievement here. Advanced learners can even add a "wa?" to the end of every sentence. The level of performance in the kitchen is at a manageable level. A sausage made from ground seperator meat with ketchup and curry spice is sold here as a currywurst and a stroke of culinary genius. Any sensible person would hardly consider a sausage with ketchup to be the holy grail of culinary art and probably not even a recipe. The rest of the republic generously allows Berliners to believe this so that their inferiority complexes don't get the better of them
Economically, Berlin is a disaster, even the late GDR was more solid. Apart from that, Berlin's economy is based on alternative blogs, something to do with media and gender studies, if the universities are to be believed.Despite the economic bankruptcy, Berliners still afford prestige projects such as the City Palace and an airport that is supposed to be an art project due to its lack of functionality.This city is also home to all the headquarters of the people's parties, which for marketing reasons do without the "traitor" in their names.For a long time, the mayor of this city was the jolly Wowibär, whose prestige and prosecco politics dragged everything that was still halfway presentable into the abyss.
In short: Berlin is Germany's tile table.It is to Germany what Greece is to the European Union and if Berlin had an open sewer, it would be Germany's Romania.
Berlin is an eyesore, the pimple on Germany's ass. Berlin is the guy who comes to your party without an invitation, doesn't even bring alcohol and doesn't understand that he's not wanted when you knock a few teeth out of his face and throw him down the stairs. Berlin is the Detroit of Germany and should be sold to Poland for 200 złoty.
Commentary: I think this needs about as much introduction as OP's post. In that spirit: I've been to Berlin too once. This is how the rest of the Federal Republic thinks about Berlin. Well, as long as we're ranting about Berlin anyway.
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Comment on What cooking techniques need more evidence? in ~food
vektor Link ParentRight. Baker's percentages are isolation of variables type stuff and super duper useful. The core idea is basically that you scale your ingredients primarily with the amount of flour you're using,...Right. Baker's percentages are isolation of variables type stuff and super duper useful. The core idea is basically that you scale your ingredients primarily with the amount of flour you're using, rather than the amount of dough you're making. If your recipe is 66% flour, 33% water, 1% salt, that's a pain to mess around with. I want the same amount, but mess with the water amount, how does that work? If the recipe is 100% flour, 2% salt, 50% water, then scaling water up and down is trivial, even if it slightly throws off how much dough you're making. Arguably, the amount of bread you receive is a function of flour use anyway.
But beyond that, a lot of the terminology and methodology around baking, bread baking in particular, is frustrating for evidence-based people. For example, the entire protein matrix, gluten development, stretching-folding-kneading part is super opaque and while there's some evidence out there, because of the complexity of the topic the readily available evidence doesn't nearly cover everything you might want to know. Similar things for anything microbe related. Yeast or sourdough development? Outcomes depend on a lot of factors and you're lucky if the evidence isolated even a handful of them at a time.
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Comment on Texas is replacing thousands of human exam graders with AI in ~tech
vektor Link ParentI for one welcome our robot overlords I agree though. I see a similar future, even in the somewhat medium term, much before your presumed retirement. An intermediate state where AI figures out for...I for one welcome our robot overlords
I agree though. I see a similar future, even in the somewhat medium term, much before your presumed retirement. An intermediate state where AI figures out for each student individually what they should be learning and how. E.g. the AI might figure out that you're ready for calculus, and that you profit most from a certain teaching style, so it directs you towards a specific lecture recording. There'd be no more reason for most teachers to actually lecture or grade things - the former is done by the few teachers who are outstanding at doing that, the latter is done by AI. A teacher's primary job would then be to lead things that require in-person interaction - think science experiments for example - or that are inherently social. You'd not be teaching them math; you'd take them on field trips where they learn to apply it; you'd do science experiments with them; and most importantly you'd be responsible for social skills, a skillset that school as it exists currently hardly even acknowledges as a valuable skillset.
I hope when we reach that point, we make use of the potential: Keep those teachers employed, but focus their efforts on newfound opportunities. Instead of firing as many as we can get away with, and keep education stagnant.
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Comment on A brief rundown of some of the flaws of the Cass review in ~lgbt
vektor Link ParentDeimos is the only admin who actually does the kind of "hard" housekeeping like bans and deletions. Considering he's busy with life currently, it's become a bit of a habit of his to delete topics...Deimos is the only admin who actually does the kind of "hard" housekeeping like bans and deletions. Considering he's busy with life currently, it's become a bit of a habit of his to delete topics before they turn into dumpster fires, because by the time they do, Deimos might be at work or asleep for another 8 hours, leading to much more substantial fallout. It's certainly not perfect, but it's better than leaving a dumpster fire to burn for extended periods of time, which would lead to a more hostile atmosphere.
I can certainly imagine that there was a bunch of Malice tags being thrown OP's way in that thread, and the atmosphere was already starting to show signs of a bit of flaming. Leave it up another 8 hours, and you've got a dumpster fire. It's not an effort to baby sensitive trans snowflakes; it's an effort to keep people from starting a flame war that affects the entire site. You can talk about difficult topics, but there's an implied responsibility to do so in a way that does not start a flame war. Any topics where that is not actually possible, yes, that conversation can indeed not currently happen on tildes for practical reasons.
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Comment on Hilary Cass: Weak evidence letting down children over gender care in ~lgbt
vektor LinkMETA/OT: Is it just me who finds this topic - and the group it's posted in - a bit off-color? I thought we had established a while ago that ~lgbt was "for and by" lgbt people, rather than "about"...META/OT: Is it just me who finds this topic - and the group it's posted in - a bit off-color? I thought we had established a while ago that ~lgbt was "for and by" lgbt people, rather than "about" lgbt people. I don't think this article fits that, and it feels a bit ...intrusive. And I'm not even lgbt.
If this topic hadn't been talked about to death in lgbt spaces, and there wasn't a broad consensus about it, it might be a relevant discussion to have, but I think both those ships have sailed quite conclusively.
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Comment on Botswana threatens to send 20,000 elephants to Germany in ~enviro
vektor Link ParentWe've got about 40 african elephants in zoos across the country. Let's say as an olive branch to Botswana we double that capacity.... I don't think we're making a dent in their excess population.We've got about 40 african elephants in zoos across the country. Let's say as an olive branch to Botswana we double that capacity.... I don't think we're making a dent in their excess population.
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Comment on Discord to start showing ads for gamers to boost revenue in ~tech
Best shot at using telescopes here is probably synthetic apertures. Build a large amount of mediocre telescopes, spread them as far apart as you can and use beamforming math to correlate their measurements. The number-crunching is probably a pain, but it's easier than building an asteroid-sized telescope.