vektor's recent activity

  1. Comment on The Dunning-Kruger effect is autocorrelation in ~science

    vektor
    Link Parent
    No, that's what the Fig 9 in the blog post shows. In the paper, it's noticably not straight, but contains a small amount of signal. They have some amount of a clue, but not a lot. If I had to...

    That's what the y vs x graph shows in the paper. A pretty much straight line. And of course the x vs x graph is linear, because it's literally y = x.

    No, that's what the Fig 9 in the blog post shows. In the paper, it's noticably not straight, but contains a small amount of signal. They have some amount of a clue, but not a lot. If I had to extract self-assessment scores for the quartiles from the figure, I'm getting 58, 62, 72 and 76. Now unless the number of participants is just dogshit here, that's certainly a correlation in my book. It's not nearly as great as their actual score differences, but crucially, the first quartile is more overconfident than the 4th is underconfident, on account of a average self-assessment way in excess of 50.

    The DK plot is not plotting nothing but noise. One need only compare the DK plot to Fig 9 and spot the differences. The differences can not be tortured out of random data. What this blog is showing is how one can present data to make it seem less random. But it's not quite reaching all the way to "all of this DK figure is noise".

    I'd also contend that asking people to self-assess as a quantile is bound to give regression-to-the-mean results, thus artificially compressing scores, leading to a overconfident first quartile and an underconfident 4th quartile. But that's mostly besides my original point.

    3 votes
  2. Comment on The Dunning-Kruger effect is autocorrelation in ~science

    vektor
    Link Parent
    My comment regarding fig 9 is that it does lack several important features of the data as presented by DK originally. It's similar, but once you get into the way this is presented, Fig 9 is...

    My comment regarding fig 9 is that it does lack several important features of the data as presented by DK originally. It's similar, but once you get into the way this is presented, Fig 9 is clearly just noise, while DK's figure has some signal - namely, systematic overconfidence, and a weak but noticable correlation between self-assessment and external assessment.

    1 vote
  3. Comment on The Dunning-Kruger effect is autocorrelation in ~science

    vektor
    Link Parent
    This actually reads like torture to me. Like, yes, it's painfully obvious that they did torture their data to comfess to some correlation that wasn't there to begin with. But that isn't nearly a...

    This actually reads like torture to me. Like, yes, it's painfully obvious that they did torture their data to comfess to some correlation that wasn't there to begin with. But that isn't nearly a debunking of the original DK research. No amount of data torture can explain that the participants in the original DK study were systematically overconfident. These participants on average self-assessed as better than they actually were, and those self-assessments were correlated (though weakly) with external assessments. Both of those effects aren't present, and (outside of freak random events) can not be present in the tortured replication (See fig 9, lacking both those effects).

    That said, dunning-kruger is frequently misreported. AFAIK, it is in fact merely that people are overconfident, and not too great at self-assessment. What I'm however not entirely convinced by is that people systematically self-assess closer to the mean than they should. That is an artifact that you can torture out of data, particularly if you include study design. It is an effect that I wouldn't be surprised if it's there, but it's also easy to make it appear out of thin air, e.g. by asking people to rank their performance as a percentile of the general population. But there's probably less-known and better-conducted and better-documented follow-up research on that topic anyway.

    7 votes
  4. Comment on Donald Trump's lawyers say it is impossible for him to post bond covering $454 million US civil fraud judgment in ~news

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Doesn't the old adage "don't commit two crimes at once, that's how you get caught" apply here? His various kinds of illegal behaviors during and around the presidency drew additional scrutiny to...

    However, whether charges would have been brought were he not a politician, well maybe imho

    Doesn't the old adage "don't commit two crimes at once, that's how you get caught" apply here? His various kinds of illegal behaviors during and around the presidency drew additional scrutiny to his other activities. Nothing unjust there I'd say, that kinda stuff happens to everyone.

    26 votes
  5. Comment on Industrial-scale thermal storage unit in Pornainen, southern Finland, will be the world's biggest sand battery when it comes online within a couple of years in ~enviro

    vektor
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I appreciate the simplicity of the whole stirbar-in-a-tank system, but I think the flexibility afforded by electricity - and the scaling you unlock too - are worth the added complexity. Like, you...

    I appreciate the simplicity of the whole stirbar-in-a-tank system, but I think the flexibility afforded by electricity - and the scaling you unlock too - are worth the added complexity. Like, you can have the turbine located a fair way away from the battery. You can plug it into the grid and thus use the battery to load-balance not just this one turbine, but the entire renewable supply. You can sell excess electricity. You can reach much higher temperatures if the only hot components are sand and a resistive heating coil. So many nice things about it, plus the scaling laws unlocked by just building stupidly big wind turbines means the stirbar thing is not looking too great. If you want to attach this to a big turbine, it's going to be trouble finding heat customers that want to live that close to a big turbine and need that much heat.

    That said, absolutely appreciate the stupefying simplicity of it. KISS at its best. Simple yet effective solutions like that always have a special place in my heart.

    Oh, and as for your engineer friend: I don't doubt his story, but I think enough people have looked into VAWT by now that this idea would've had its breakthrough by now, surely. Maybe there's more disadvantages your friend doesn't know about or something, but I can't really believe that the entire industry, after having gone through countless retoolings to scale up the turbines again and again, and with multiple manufacturers being on the market, is collectively blind to the advantages of a design that a few blokes in a shed can prototype.

    3 votes
  6. Comment on Industrial-scale thermal storage unit in Pornainen, southern Finland, will be the world's biggest sand battery when it comes online within a couple of years in ~enviro

    vektor
    Link Parent
    I'm not sure if this is practical or if this would rely on a magical heat pipe that transports the heat from the turbine to the battery. You certainly wouldn't want to have the battery of 100s of...

    I'm not sure if this is practical or if this would rely on a magical heat pipe that transports the heat from the turbine to the battery. You certainly wouldn't want to have the battery of 100s of tons of glowing hot sand on top of a 100m tower. Ooooor you go for silly-geometry wind turbines - there's a reason these were never meaningfully adopted, and I'm not sure those disadvantages are outweighed by the allure of just continuing their shaft into a comically large brake in a comically large bed of glowing sand.

    (Great, now I'm wondering about the potential of using a giant stirbar in a bed of sand as a means of (1) braking the shaft while (2) effectively distributing the heat in the sand.)

    4 votes
  7. Comment on Are Swedish dishcloths more environment-friendly than paper towels? We investigate. in ~enviro

    vektor
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    As a point of reference, afaik most municipal waste services in my country (Germany) specifically exclude compostable plastics from compost. And that's big operations that compost all the food...

    As a point of reference, afaik most municipal waste services in my country (Germany) specifically exclude compostable plastics from compost. And that's big operations that compost all the food waste and plant trimmings from 100k+ people. Apparently these things are a royal pain in the ass.

    (Just looking into it, and picking a random big city in Germany: Frankfurt, a city of 700k people, does not allow compostable plastics in their compost waste. They process 118000t of material per year.)

    5 votes
  8. Comment on Research paper compares LLM responses based on politeness of requests and finds quality difference in ~tech

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Right, the crucial part isn't the intelligence. There are plenty of ways to make non-sentient intelligence, some of which will pretend to be sentient (e.g. if we train them on human data)....

    Right, the crucial part isn't the intelligence. There are plenty of ways to make non-sentient intelligence, some of which will pretend to be sentient (e.g. if we train them on human data). Intelligence and sentience are different things. Your ginger cat is dumb as shit, but that doesn't mean you'd abuse it like you would an industrial robot manipulator, right?

    1 vote
  9. Comment on This comment has been removed and is not visible to other users..? in ~tildes

    vektor
    Link Parent
    I keep thinking I want tildes to show whether the person being replied to voted on a comment. I'm not sure it'd actually be a net benefit, but sometimes you want the really low-noise way to...

    especially if the result is just "it worked", since that's really what a vote is for.

    I keep thinking I want tildes to show whether the person being replied to voted on a comment. I'm not sure it'd actually be a net benefit, but sometimes you want the really low-noise way to acknowledge someone's reply.

    13 votes
  10. Comment on Opinion - Israel must decide where it’s going—and who should lead it there: the case for early elections in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Honestly, I don't know how controversial your opinion will actually be on here. I have yet to see anyone here who really thinks highly of Netanyahu, even among those who are on the "pro-israeli"...

    Honestly, I don't know how controversial your opinion will actually be on here. I have yet to see anyone here who really thinks highly of Netanyahu, even among those who are on the "pro-israeli" side of the issue.

    8 votes
  11. Comment on Opinion - Israel must decide where it’s going—and who should lead it there: the case for early elections in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Agreed. I think it's a lot more doable to convince a current Netanyahu supporter that Netanyahu is actually screwing the security of Israel up due to incompetence. Try convincing that person...

    Agreed. I think it's a lot more doable to convince a current Netanyahu supporter that Netanyahu is actually screwing the security of Israel up due to incompetence. Try convincing that person instead that Israel's ideology on the whole conflict is screwed up, see how that goes. I'll wait. Considering Israel's recent history, I doubt that'll go well.

    3 votes
  12. Comment on Nvidia CEO says kids shouldn't learn to code in ~comp

    vektor
    Link Parent
    That, and a lot of the double-checking can also be done by AI I presume. No reason an AI can't take requirements, convert them to tests, write code that solves the problem, run the tests to ensure...

    That, and a lot of the double-checking can also be done by AI I presume. No reason an AI can't take requirements, convert them to tests, write code that solves the problem, run the tests to ensure the code satisfies them and then validate it all against the original requirements, producing a report that highlights potential issues. Only slightly optimistically, that's just scaling what's already there - building models with better reasoning capabilities, gathering more data and some integration work to put it all together into a usable product. It's IMO entirely feasible within the time frame that's relevant for what kids should learn today. If you're going to use your coding skills in 15-20 years, my guess for their marketability is quite grim, considering the hordes of coders we have educated the last 10 years, a lot of which will probably be made redundant if my crystal ball isn't wrong.

    2 votes
  13. Comment on Shaun on Palestine in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Given this conflict is as polarizing as it is, I think this is super important. I see so many conflicting statements of fact about this conflict online, a lot of outright disinfo, and a staggering...

    Given this conflict is as polarizing as it is, I think this is super important. I see so many conflicting statements of fact about this conflict online, a lot of outright disinfo, and a staggering amount of toxicity to anyone who dares have a differing opinion. This conflict desperately needs in-depth accurate information. Not people ingesting more of opinions they already agree with, that's what got us into this polarized mess to begin with.

    6 votes
  14. Comment on Shaun on Palestine in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    I don't begrudge him having an opinion or stating it, obviously not. But establishing legitimacy on one issue and then spouting (unmarked) opinions on other issues is exactly how we got faux...

    I don't begrudge him having an opinion or stating it, obviously not. But establishing legitimacy on one issue and then spouting (unmarked) opinions on other issues is exactly how we got faux intellectuals like Jordan Peterson. My patience for such nonsense is limited. It is of course entirely appropriate to talk about your opinions as long as you ensure they are understood as such. But I think Shaun hasn't made that distinction clear to an extent that I'm happy with. Of course reasonable people can disagree about where the line is; mine is informed by a minefield of opinion-and-legitimacy-havers both good and bad and a lot of people in the general public who are misled by them.

    5 votes
  15. Comment on Shaun on Palestine in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    His video on the nuclear bombings has a bibliography and he often refers to sources. I don't think it's a stretch to apply a bit more academic rigor here, both because Shaun himself does it, but...

    His video on the nuclear bombings has a bibliography and he often refers to sources. I don't think it's a stretch to apply a bit more academic rigor here, both because Shaun himself does it, but also because -due to him applying at the very least a veneer of academia- people will take what he says for fact; it's all written down in historical literature after all. Except where it isn't written down, and he's just making it up. Crossing that line is never a good thing and always deserves criticism, if only to keep viewers alert and their critical thinking engaged.

    The other direction is less problematic. If I make an opinion piece that is clearly perceived as such, and I make a well-sourced statement of facts, the worst thing that's going to happen is that people think it's opinion when it's fact. That's quite ok. But that's not what this is, or at least, that's not how Shaun's nukes video presents itself.

    Interestingly, and IMO fittingly, the Palestine video has no listed sources, instead just listing charities.

    9 votes
  16. Comment on Shaun on Palestine in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Haven't watched it yet, but yeah, TimeGhost is IMO much better about such things. Have yet to see them embroiled in any notable drama around how they present history, and they've been doing it for...

    Haven't watched it yet, but yeah, TimeGhost is IMO much better about such things. Have yet to see them embroiled in any notable drama around how they present history, and they've been doing it for a while.

    I will watch this.

    3 votes
  17. Comment on Shaun on Palestine in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Honestly, I'm disappointed in this video/Shaun. I only watched about 10 minutes of it, but in those 10 minutes it was already made clear that this was not going to be fair, nor trying to convince...

    Honestly, I'm disappointed in this video/Shaun. I only watched about 10 minutes of it, but in those 10 minutes it was already made clear that this was not going to be fair, nor trying to convince people on the fence. It's not going after a reasonably strong version of the pro-israel arguments, because I don't think that's what Shaun is going for. Shaun starts from a position of "Israel is the baddie here" and goes from there. I didn't bother with that, and reading your comment sorta confirms to me that that's what the video mostly is.

    I'm entirely on board with a 2h deep dive into this conflict, working up the history and probably also a fair amount of assigning blame to various parties. I don't expect Israel to walk away clean from that, not at all. But I think a fair trial will achieve painting Israel in a light thoroughly deserving of criticism all the same.

    24 votes
  18. Comment on I’m worried that the Israel-Palestine conflict is tearing Tildes apart in ~tildes

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Oh, sure. Making it possible to leave is nice and helps a bit. But the only way it's ever going to be a 'clean' fight is if all the civilians leave. Who makes them leave and how doesn't really...

    Oh, sure. Making it possible to leave is nice and helps a bit. But the only way it's ever going to be a 'clean' fight is if all the civilians leave. Who makes them leave and how doesn't really matter, that always has the optics of displacement.

    4 votes
  19. Comment on I’m worried that the Israel-Palestine conflict is tearing Tildes apart in ~tildes

    vektor
    Link Parent
    Correct. Urban combat will result in either civilian casualties, or in displacement of civilians. "Clean" fighting in populated urban environments just isn't. Certainly hasn't been since the...

    Correct. Urban combat will result in either civilian casualties, or in displacement of civilians. "Clean" fighting in populated urban environments just isn't. Certainly hasn't been since the advent of artillery, probably even since the development of siege tactics.

    12 votes
  20. Comment on The real danger to civilisation isn't runaway AI it's runaway capitalism (2017) in ~misc

    vektor
    Link Parent
    ... and shitty reward functions are the underlying justification for any and all AI apocalypse. A subservient AI with a well-aligned reward function might do things that seem to humans to be...

    ... and shitty reward functions are the underlying justification for any and all AI apocalypse. A subservient AI with a well-aligned reward function might do things that seem to humans to be "coldly rational" (what I mean is actions that are cruel and uncaring, but ultimately correct and serving a good goal) or completely incomprehensible (when us meatsacks just can't keep up mentally), but shouldn't ever lead to an apocalypse.

    3 votes