vektor's recent activity
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Comment on Is ‘birdnesting’ the answer for divorcing parents? The arrangement in which children of separated couples stay in the family home with one parent, before the other swaps in, is taking off. in ~life
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Comment on IVF alone can’t save us from a looming fertility crisis in ~health
vektor Link ParentHow about both? "Underpopulation" / Population growth below replacement levels in the developed world. Overpopulation globally. As in, we consume more resources than earth can sustainably provide....How about both? "Underpopulation" / Population growth below replacement levels in the developed world. Overpopulation globally. As in, we consume more resources than earth can sustainably provide. Irrespective of where those resources are and where the people consuming them are. And yes, the synthesis of those two means that developed countries continue to decline in population while developing countries explode in population. Perfect feed stock for "great replacement" type conspiracy theories, but I think it's too simplistic to simply write off overpopulation concerns as an ethnonationalist narrative.
Both are a concern. You can't sustain 30 billion on this planet. Even 10 billion will make some of our problems worse, and that seems to be where we're headed. To a first degree approximation, 4 billion now would be better than the 8 billion we're at. (*)
Meanwhile, population decline will invariably lead to issues, irrespective of the economic system in place. Too many old people that can't meaningfully contribute to society. There's ways of addressing this and softening the hit - raising the retirement age, shifting medical KPIs from "years lived" to "healthy years lived", involving the elderly better in child rearing. But you're still going to have to somehow deal with that 65 year old electrician whos knees are so fucked he can't even stand up straight anymore and who smoked enough in his days to pave a road with his lungs. Perhaps for 40 more years. And you're either going to have to tell his family you're letting him die, or you somehow pay his medical bills.
And migration is also not really a sustainable solution. Either wealthy countries pick out the best workers to prop up their economies, thus depriving those countries of the valuable human capital that could drive their development forward. Or wealthy countries are less selective about who they allow in, which does little to address the demographic challenges and can easily lead to xenophobic sentiments boiling over.
Personally, I think some unpleasant choices will have to be made on all fronts here. We're probably best on track wrt. the overpopulation thing: No one talks about 30 billion, and the projected peak of 10 billion will be a bit tighter than now but probably doable.
(*) massive asterisk on that one, because the second degree approximation curves in the other direction. More people means more people doing innovation, and bigger markets to fund those innovations. Hell, some products (e.g. electronics) we're relying on today are so capital intensive, I doubt if they could exist in smaller markets. To illustrate that this isn't just electronic toys like iPhones: Look at the "learning curve" of solar power, how it got cheaper with increased adoption. Achieving the necessary scale for that is more difficult with a smaller population.
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Comment on Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd in ~news
vektor Link ParentThat is true, at least for Trump's core voters. However, that works less well for those not already in Trump's corner, and those are the people the fight for public opinion is really about. A...That is true, at least for Trump's core voters. However, that works less well for those not already in Trump's corner, and those are the people the fight for public opinion is really about. A fence-sitter with pro-trump tendencies who at least somewhat listens to centrist news outlets will be much less swayed if Trump's narrative has obvious holes that are being pointed out.
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Comment on Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd in ~news
vektor Link ParentTo share a tiny bit of optimism: It looks like the shooter was a registered republican - source e.g. CNN. I'll not link it as it shares the name of the shooter as well (Is that even relevant in...To share a tiny bit of optimism: It looks like the shooter was a registered republican - source e.g. CNN. I'll not link it as it shares the name of the shooter as well (Is that even relevant in cases of political violence re: copycats?) but it should be easy enough to find.
Why is that good news? Because hopefully this means the assassination attempt is harder to weaponize against Biden, and it's more difficult to use it as a vehicle to pass authoritarian legislation.
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Comment on Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd in ~news
vektor (edited )Link ParentIf you want to fix the timeline you better start in 1991 and put the 90s to good use.If you want to fix the timeline you better start in 1991 and put the 90s to good use.
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Comment on James Carville: Joe Biden won’t win. Democrats need a plan. Here’s one. (gifted link) in ~misc
vektor Link ParentSounds like his proposal here will pan out like all his others. Seriously though. I'm with him. The Jig is up. Except: It's Biden. Anyone else would probably simply hand the election to Trump. I...What does Carville know about winning exactly? [..]
Sounds like his proposal here will pan out like all his others.
Seriously though. I'm with him. The Jig is up. Except: It's Biden. Anyone else would probably simply hand the election to Trump. I think his proposal is generally a good one: More democratic, more visible, better primaries are arguably as important to US democracy as fair presidential elections, seeing as how the election process is quite undemocratic, so more democratically legitimate candidates improve legitimacy. But that needs to be the process from the start, not the ad-hoc response to a perceived crisis. Next time the Dems need a candidate, take a page out of this playbook, pehaps vesting a bit less actual power in the ex presidents.
A transparent process of building consensus within the democratic party will probably help engage politically interested but disillusioned voters. Show them how the sausage is made, and that they can shape both candidate and policy selection. Even if their candidate didn't end up on the ballot, if their policies made it onto the eventual candidate's policy platform in a dilute, but visible way, they'll be more likely to show up to vote.
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Comment on Climate disinformation researcher Geoffrey Supran's presentation to the European Parliament about Exxon's propaganda campaign in ~enviro
vektor Link Parent"To those that can hear me, I say, do not despair. The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed" Charlie Chaplin, The Great Dictator I like that perspective of yours."To those that can hear me, I say, do not despair. The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed"
Charlie Chaplin, The Great Dictator
I like that perspective of yours.
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Comment on Algorithms are deciding who gets organ transplants [in the UK's NHS]. Are their decisions fair? in ~health
vektor Link ParentI don't think it's difficult to argue that from a health perspective, you're enjoying higher QoL in your 20s than your 50s. Perhaps not by a huge margin, the actual dropoff happens past the 50s...I don't think it's difficult to argue that from a health perspective, you're enjoying higher QoL in your 20s than your 50s. Perhaps not by a huge margin, the actual dropoff happens past the 50s I'd say. But your average 50yo has some acquired disabilities like chronic pain, worn out joints, declining fitness.
That point completely aside, I doubt QALY is sufficiently clear as to make a discussion of what ought or ought not be included or considered a moot point. QALY (as a concept, not as a currently implemented metric) is presumably extremely difficult to quantify, and approximations must be made. Where and how we approximate matters and is up for debate.
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Comment on Algorithms are deciding who gets organ transplants [in the UK's NHS]. Are their decisions fair? in ~health
vektor (edited )Link ParentFor the most part, complete agreement. However, at this point, that colloquialism has crept in so much that it wouldn't surprise me. Nevermind that there's some ML practitioners out there with a...For the most part, complete agreement.
However, at this point, that colloquialism has crept in so much that it wouldn't surprise me. Nevermind that there's some ML practitioners out there with a poor grasp of ML fundamentals and a poorer grasp of general CS fundamentals. So if I met a ML professional tomorrow who insisted that this or that AI/ML system was an algorithm, but couldn't actually define algorithm, I wouldn't be surprised, just disappointed.
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Comment on Algorithms are deciding who gets organ transplants [in the UK's NHS]. Are their decisions fair? in ~health
vektor Link Parent... and to preemptively defend that choice of metric against plain 'life years': if you have a treatment that cures a debilitating, but non-deadly disease - coma, lock-in-syndrome, pick your...... and to preemptively defend that choice of metric against plain 'life years': if you have a treatment that cures a debilitating, but non-deadly disease - coma, lock-in-syndrome, pick your poison really - but there's a small chance of death, 'ly' prescribes never to treat, as it could end the life with no measurable upside, while 'qaly' prescribes that if the risk is sufficiently small, we treat, because it can measure the upside.
'ly' wants us to all be nonperishable vegetables with a heartbeat and at least some brain activity. 'qaly' wants us to actually live and be able to do something with it.
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Comment on Algorithms are deciding who gets organ transplants [in the UK's NHS]. Are their decisions fair? in ~health
vektor Link ParentAlso, more often than not, the ML "algorithms" have enough approximation and heuristics in them to kill a horse. They are only algorithms if you stretch the definition of that term to its breaking...This is the correct definition of an algorithm. I have to point this out, because I have a computer science background and the about of eye-rolling I do when I hear the term "algorithm" used to mean "some kind of magic" probably isn't good for my migraines.
Also, more often than not, the ML "algorithms" have enough approximation and heuristics in them to kill a horse. They are only algorithms if you stretch the definition of that term to its breaking point. How parameters and hyperparameters are chosen is often completely undefined, nevermind that it's also nondeterministic.
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Comment on After a shaky debate performance top US Democrats talk about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket in ~misc
vektor Link ParentOh, there's a bajillion other issues a trump presidency would turn into disasters. Climate policy for one is internationally crucially important. The US is a big country with a big footprint, if...Oh, there's a bajillion other issues a trump presidency would turn into disasters. Climate policy for one is internationally crucially important. The US is a big country with a big footprint, if they're doing the right thing that is both a large slice of the cake already taken care of and a massive incentive for other countries to follow suit.
The prospect of a authoritarian US is also decidedly dicey for the rest of the free world. Sure, right now our position globally is solid: Europe, the US, various east asian democracies and decent swaths of the old commonwealth, plus a few more all share broadly similar values, supporting each other and trading. Take the US away and that loose alliance looks a lot more shaky.
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Comment on Denver gave people experiencing homelessness $1,000 a month. A year later, nearly half of participants had housing. in ~life
vektor Link ParentRight. A UBI type scheme would give employees the means to say no to exploitative-but-legal employment. Which means employers have to pay more or decrease how much their jobs suck (e.g. by...Right. A UBI type scheme would give employees the means to say no to exploitative-but-legal employment. Which means employers have to pay more or decrease how much their jobs suck (e.g. by providing reasonable schedules).
Plus, I see another tool in the toolbox that studies can't touch, but governments (at a certain level anyway) could: Payroll tax curves. Plot Take-home pay as a function of gross wages. A UBI like this means f(0) = 12000. What's the take-home-pay supposed to be if you're working a 12k/a job? f(12000) = ???.. Well, it definitely has to be more than 12000 if we want people to show up. 18000 perhaps? Where's the government's breakeven point, where they stop subsidising people's lives? How much does the government extract from people earning 100k? So many useful tools for making sure that people are incentivized to work, and that performance is rewarded are in that curve. Plus, there's a few simple common-sense constraints you can throw at it to ensure the curve ends up with a reasonable shape: f'(x) > 0 to make sure more wages means at least some extra take-home pay. f''(x) < 0 to make sure higher incomes are taxed more than low incomes.
Any policy discussion about UBI or similar constructs needs to in some way adjust the tax curve to keep things balanced.
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Comment on Adobe TOS: I'm an artist. I have never used Adobe Cloud software. What happens if someone else uploads my content? in ~tech
vektor Link ParentFunny how that section starts explicitly distinguishing "do not have the right" and "will not". And then they state that they "will not" use your shit as training data. Cynical read: we have the...Funny how that section starts explicitly distinguishing "do not have the right" and "will not". And then they state that they "will not" use your shit as training data. Cynical read: we have the right, but we won't use it..... yet.
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Comment on What slow-burn game is worth the time? in ~games
vektor Link ParentEhh, except you don't, because you're only really supposed to get exploring after completing a few more quests, some of which seem like you should earn some experience in the open world before...then suddenly, you have this entire world to explore.
Ehh, except you don't, because you're only really supposed to get exploring after completing a few more quests, some of which seem like you should earn some experience in the open world before attempting them. But no, actually, the real progression is in beating up the captain of the guard in practice sessions. And you're locked out of that for at least part of the extended tutorial. After Sassau, I think, is when you can actually reasonably explore the world, IMO. Before then, a crucial element is missing and the player doesn't really know it.
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Comment on What slow-burn game is worth the time? in ~games
vektor Link ParentI think what that fight with the village drunk is missing - desperately - is a way to retry without savescumming. He beat you up? Alright, run back to daddy. Mommy patches you up, daddy tells you...I know it's got an avid cult following so I try to refrain from getting hyperbolic, but truly, the combat is so user hostile–at least in the beginning–that I'm completely unwilling to be charitable toward the rest of the experience.
I think what that fight with the village drunk is missing - desperately - is a way to retry without savescumming. He beat you up? Alright, run back to daddy. Mommy patches you up, daddy tells you to figure something out. Quest log entry to -secretly- meet the swordsman for a practice session. Then unlimited practice sessions until you can beat the drunk.
It's got a very very good combat system, but it takes a bit of getting into, and the game isn't making that easy for the player.
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Comment on What slow-burn game is worth the time? in ~games
vektor Link ParentOne thing I disliked when I originally played it (and I got to that fight in the ruined village in the woods) was the balancing. Either I happened to get stuck in ever bigger trouble when...One thing I disliked when I originally played it (and I got to that fight in the ruined village in the woods) was the balancing. Either I happened to get stuck in ever bigger trouble when exploring the farther I got, but with enemies scaling with you, and quite agressively so, I never had the feeling of getting stronger. I'd practice some to improve skills (both character and player skills) and go back into the woods to find a bandit or two to bonk. Maybe invest some of my hard-earned cash into better armor. And whoops, that rag-tag group of bandits is wearing full plate armor and hits like a truck.
Has that changes since? It's been a few years. I've gone back a month or two back, but for reasons that have little or nothing to do with KC:D, I haven't stayed with the game long enough to find out.
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Comment on Former US President Donald Trump has been found guilty of thirty-four counts of falsifying business records to influence the outcome of the 2016 election in ~news
vektor Link ParentI think part of that is down to that the candidate has to mobilize/convince centrists. Sanders e.g. would've failed at that spectacularly. There's (presumably) a good amount of voters who value...I think part of that is down to that the candidate has to mobilize/convince centrists. Sanders e.g. would've failed at that spectacularly. There's (presumably) a good amount of voters who value stability and continuity over radical, even if positive, change. Those aren't going to show up for a progressive candidate, because to them it's the choice of blue-flavor radicalism vs red-flavor radicalism. Trump changes that calculus up a bit, because he should be unelectable to those stability centrists. That doesn't mean they would necessarily show up for progressive candidate, because that's exactly the "shit or worse shit" election that motivates no one to get out there and vote. But they will show up for Biden, who is delivering a healthy dose of stability while delivering at least some decent policy results.
Me stating this doesn't mean I like this status quo, but it's my best guess for why things are the way they are in the US.
This calculus could change with more young progressive voters showing up. Of course the elections themselves aren't the place to push for progressive concessions; I'd hazard the guess that has to happen before: In party bodies and/or in primary elections. The more progressives show up there or get votes into those bodies, the more the party sees that they are a part of their potential base. But don't think for a second that comes without compromises. You can't have 10% dictate the platform of a 50% party, but compromises are an essential component of any democracy.
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Comment on Celebrities like Elon Musk and Taylor Swift might soon be able to hide their private jet flights from online sleuths in ~transport
vektor Link ParentI think this is (IMO) completely addressed by Make them pay. Once they pay enough that from the tax revenue their actions generate, we can clean up behind them, I don't give a shit who you are or...I think this is (IMO) completely addressed by
If you want to discourage private jet travel, tax the hell out of it.
Make them pay. Once they pay enough that from the tax revenue their actions generate, we can clean up behind them, I don't give a shit who you are or where you fly to. Have them pay for their emissions and for any other externalities like the infrastructure we subsidized that they're now using. You think that if their tax revenue pays for cleanup and nothing more, then they're not actually paying their fair share? Cool, I actually agree with you. You don't want ADS-B data though, you want a billionaire tax.
Violating their privacy doesn't get me my money back. Doesn't fix the planet. Doesn't fix income inequality. Them paying a stupid amount of money, if used properly, does though.
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Comment on Celebrities like Elon Musk and Taylor Swift might soon be able to hide their private jet flights from online sleuths in ~transport
vektor Link ParentBy a week later, additional data will probably make depseudonymizing the IDs simple enough. The guy who tracked Musk seems confident enough.By a week later, additional data will probably make depseudonymizing the IDs simple enough. The guy who tracked Musk seems confident enough.
It's not the same though, is it? Kids don't have to feel like strangers in their own home, it's perfectly doable to make them feel at home in two different places. There's no "negative presence" at dad's or anything.
But sharing a home with someone you're on poor terms with? Sounds like a great recipe for making those terms poorer and introducing a lot of negativity, which the kids will notice. You'd have to have the kind of relationship where the parents could just continue cohabiting anyway.