The situation is beyond dire, and much worse than what happened in the US both in numbers and scope. I expect the law to be applied in the most strongest terms. Violence must be employed....
The situation is beyond dire, and much worse than what happened in the US both in numbers and scope. I expect the law to be applied in the most strongest terms. Violence must be employed. Unfortunately, police is largely Bolsonarist and is unlikely to do so.
Security forces are just now reacting hours after the invasion took place. There are images of police officers taking pictures while doing nothing. Politicians and security officers are already blaming each other. This is a historical collective failure on multiple levels.
Given that it's Sunday, there was no congressman or ministers at the site. But their quarters were fully invaded and destroyed. Some lower employees are surrounded and awaiting rescue.
I will try to provide some assorted information on the things that seem particularly important and worrisome, with links to sources in Portuguese, since there's lots that foreign news...
I will try to provide some assorted information on the things that seem particularly important and worrisome, with links to sources in Portuguese, since there's lots that foreign news organizations are not picking up.
It would be tough for me to summarize everything that took place in the last 2 days, but my perception is that Brazilian democracy is stronger today than it has ever been. Justice, Congress, Senate, and the Presidency are incredibly united.
I feel overwhelmed myself. I will update this comment if I find English-speaking sources, or if there is something I missed. In any case, feel free to AMA. I've been following this non-stop so I can probably answer some questions.
I was going to propose a mega thread for this topic but maybe this thread under the Reuters story will have to do. Thanks for compiling these links and summarizing the situation. I’ll be watching...
I was going to propose a mega thread for this topic but maybe this thread under the Reuters story will have to do. Thanks for compiling these links and summarizing the situation. I’ll be watching for your updates. It is great to hear your optimism about the outcomes so far!
I could write a lot about that, but I have some emotions to process before being able to do so. But there's one thing that is extremely relevant in Brazil: we actually know what dictatorship looks...
I could write a lot about that, but I have some emotions to process before being able to do so.
But there's one thing that is extremely relevant in Brazil: we actually know what dictatorship looks like. A lot of the older members of the press, lawmakers, judges, etc, remember that period very well. On some level, this shared trauma unites them, regardless of political tendencies. Former president Dilma Roussef (on the left) was tortured by the military back then, and another president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (on the economic right) self-exiled to Chile. Even beloved popular artists had to escape. And people actually died.
I think one of the real elements of danger here in the US is that a lot of people don't have tangible experience with dictatorship or authoritarianism and, more importantly, they're not willing to...
one thing that is extremely relevant in Brazil: we actually know what dictatorship looks like
I think one of the real elements of danger here in the US is that a lot of people don't have tangible experience with dictatorship or authoritarianism and, more importantly, they're not willing to learn from history or recent events in other countries. They fail to see how fragile democracy is and how bad the outcome can be if they break it. I'm rooting for you in Brazil, and I only wish it would be a bigger story here that people would learn from.
By 6:30 p.m. local time (2130 GMT), some three hours after initial reports of the invasion, security forces had managed to retake the capital's most iconic three buildings.
Brasilia Governor Ibaneis Rocha, a longtime Bolsonaro ally facing tough questions after Sunday's security lapses, said on Twitter more than 400 people had been arrested and authorities were working to identify more.
The Supreme Court just removed the recently elected governor of Brasília from office for the next 90 days due to his gross incompetence and possible collaboration. Edit: according to jurists, the...
The Supreme Court just removed the recently elected governor of Brasília from office for the next 90 days due to his gross incompetence and possible collaboration. Edit: according to jurists, the Supreme Court acted out of its prerogative to respond to attacks directed at the Court itself.
That kind of decision is not at all common and historical in itself.
The court also ordered numerous measures to suppress terrorist cells all over the country, along with express orders to identify, restrict, and punish the terrorists.
The Supreme Court is at the moment being way more aggressive than the president, and, in my view, they are entirely reasonable in doing so.
They also prohibited protests of any kind in Brasilia, but I don't recall for how long.
It's important to notice that the Supreme Court's building was basically destroyed from to to bottom, including the office of Alexandre de Moraes, currently serving as chief of the Supreme Court (actually Rosa Weber), who was responsible for that swift response.
The consensus among specialists is that Brazil will never be the same, and it's unfortunate that our political class will have to deal with terrorism when our economy needs attention.
Like in the US, many terrorists justify their actions with delirious conspiracy theories.
The silver lining is that the country is very much united against domestic terrorism right now and support for the insurrection among the public is virtually non existent. The media, including those on the right, universally condemned the insurrection and rightfully labeled them as the criminals and terrorists that they are. In this sad day, I can feel proud of my fellow Brazilians.
Our democracy will prevail.
Edit: forgot to mention that during the attack Brasília's now former Secretary of Security was in Florida, the same place Jair Bolsonaro chose to evade justice.
Brazil’s army chief fired in aftermath of capital uprising - Associated Press, article in English. More information - article in Portuguese. In the weeks before and after the attack of January...
In the weeks before and after the attack of January 8th, many terrorist cells occupied areas right in front of Army bases around the country. Army Officials either tolerated or supported the "terrorist shanty towns", in some cases preventing the Police from dismantling them. The firing of the Army's top commanders is a consequence of their incompetence and collaboration with the terrorists.
Coups happen when the army supports them - it's a requirement, but not a given. Firing the army chief makes a lot of sense. Good job defending this one.
Coups happen when the army supports them - it's a requirement, but not a given.
It's not just leadership either. Radicals are being identified and quietly (and legally...) removed from all levels of police, military, and intelligence. In a sense, the terrorists gave a present...
It's not just leadership either. Radicals are being identified and quietly (and legally...) removed from all levels of police, military, and intelligence. In a sense, the terrorists gave a present to the left, because, otherwise, we would have to coexist with far-right radicals in the government during Lula's entire term. Now the president needs absolutely no excuse to remove them, and no one in their right mind will question it.
Brazil police find draft decree in ex-minister's house to illegally revert election (article in English). Summary: Brazilian FBI found a handwritten document at Anderson Torres's[1] home that...
Summary: Brazilian FBI found a handwritten document at Anderson Torres's[1] home that greatly strengthens the accusation that he colluded with Bolsonaro for the terrorist attacks. Anderson Torres left Brasília shortly before the attacks to meet Bolsonaro in Florida.
[1] The now fired Brasília Security Chief that is currently in the US, and whose prison was already ordered by the Supreme Court.
The news cycle slowed down a lot. Some specialists are criticizing the Supreme Court for overreaching beyond its role and legal prerogatives. Constitutional Law is way beyond my knowledge and understanding, so I asked my friend who is a good lawyer (and one of the most measured and fair people I know...). According to him, Alexandre de Moraes did go beyond what is allowed for him or the Supreme Court to do. He added that that is not a new thing and has been going on since long before the attacks -- like months or years. As I said, I approve of everything the Supreme Court did as a response to the attack, and I generally agree or at least respect pretty much everything they do. Someone had to take those measures, but maybe I'm only okay with that because, both now and historically, their decisions tend to agree with my own views. So take that as you will.
Before Sunday, the military had twice blocked authorities from clearing the bolsonarista camp, according to statements by Col. Fábio Augusto Vieira, the former commander of the military police of the Federal District of Brasília, that were provided to The Washington Post. Vieira has been detained in connection with security lapses during the riots.
[...]
On the night of the riot, Lula administration officials say, the president’s chief of staff, his justice and defense ministers, and the new security chief for the capital named to replace Torres arrived at the Space Age-style army headquarters at about 10:20 p.m. to negotiate the detention of insurrectionists and others in the protest camp. Military commanders agreed to allow security officials under Lula’s control to raid the camp, but not until 6 a.m. Monday. Administration officials say they believe that gave the military time to warn relatives and friends there to leave.
[...]
Authorities have said they are investigating financial links to Brazil’s agribusiness interests, whom Bolsonaro championed while in office and who they say helped pay for the buses. Investigators say they are operating under the premise that Brazil’s large agricultural exporters are unlikely suspects, and are instead focusing on smaller companies tied to the illegal deforestation that flourished under Bolsonaro’s permissive approach to the environment. They note that a man arrested on Christmas Eve in connection to a bombing attempt in the capital came from Pará state in the Amazon region — a part of the country where illegal agribusiness thrives.
“Those who were involved in the coup d’etat were especially those involved in agribusiness outside the law,” Dino, the justice minister, told The Post. “The ones who occupy indigenous lands, public land, smuggle pesticides, fertilizers. People who operate in illegal mining. That’s the segment that’s going to appear.”
All I have are guesses, but I can share those with you. According to the leading conspiracy theory at the root of all this, someone called "General Heleno" was acting in the shadows to reinstate...
All I have are guesses, but I can share those with you.
According to the leading conspiracy theory at the root of all this, someone called "General Heleno" was acting in the shadows to reinstate Bolsonaro as a dictator. The actions against all Branches of Government were supposed to force President Lula to call the Military to intervene to maintain order. Once in control of the situation, the military would them remain in power and take charge of the country in a military coup.
That is a deliriant scenario.
First, it looks like nobody told General Heleno of the plan. All indications are that he was in no way involved with the attacks.
Second, while there are numerous sympathizers in the Army, the National Force, and the Military Police (which in Brazil is the larger ostensive police and not circumscribed to military bases), it doesn't seem that they were coordinated in any significant way. They answer to different commanders, and not all of them are Bolsonarists. Also, there is little indication that either the Polícia Federal (Brazil's FBI) or ABIN (Brazil's CIA) were compromised to a significant extent.
My theory is that a lot of people were willing to throw some gasoline in the fire, but no one really wanted to risk publicly taking charge of the coup. Bolsonaro was in Florida eating KFC, and his ex-vice-president Mourão (a way more competent and dangerous man) kept a safe distance from the events. The coup lacked a charismatic figure to coordinate their efforts and for people to rally around.
Up until now, Brazilian institutions are showing a remarkable ability to react appropriately to the challenge and I applaud them for that. However, once more, I am forced to recognize that the sheer incompetence of the far-right was what ultimately saved us.
EDIT: (I really hope this doesn't bite me in the ass, but...) I would also like to add that Brazil is a country of 214.3 million people with an area of 8.516 million km². Taking over a country like Brazil would require massive resources, masterful logistics, immense popular support, and the ability to deal with multiple pro-democracy insurrections. The far-right doesn't have any of that. When you think about coups in Latin American countries, those countries are all orders of magnitude smaller than Brazil. For example, Peru has 33.72 million, and Venezuela has 28.2 million. Brazil is simply more difficult to control. To take over Brazil in 2022 would require a long-term strategy of erosion of democratic institutions, which might resemble more the ascension of Vladimir Putin than, say, Hugo Chávez or Nicolás Maduro.
The situation is beyond dire, and much worse than what happened in the US both in numbers and scope. I expect the law to be applied in the most strongest terms. Violence must be employed. Unfortunately, police is largely Bolsonarist and is unlikely to do so.
Security forces are just now reacting hours after the invasion took place. There are images of police officers taking pictures while doing nothing. Politicians and security officers are already blaming each other. This is a historical collective failure on multiple levels.
Given that it's Sunday, there was no congressman or ministers at the site. But their quarters were fully invaded and destroyed. Some lower employees are surrounded and awaiting rescue.
The situation is developing.
I will try to provide some assorted information on the things that seem particularly important and worrisome, with links to sources in Portuguese, since there's lots that foreign news organizations are not picking up.
It would be tough for me to summarize everything that took place in the last 2 days, but my perception is that Brazilian democracy is stronger today than it has ever been. Justice, Congress, Senate, and the Presidency are incredibly united.
I feel overwhelmed myself. I will update this comment if I find English-speaking sources, or if there is something I missed. In any case, feel free to AMA. I've been following this non-stop so I can probably answer some questions.
I was going to propose a mega thread for this topic but maybe this thread under the Reuters story will have to do. Thanks for compiling these links and summarizing the situation. I’ll be watching for your updates. It is great to hear your optimism about the outcomes so far!
I could write a lot about that, but I have some emotions to process before being able to do so.
But there's one thing that is extremely relevant in Brazil: we actually know what dictatorship looks like. A lot of the older members of the press, lawmakers, judges, etc, remember that period very well. On some level, this shared trauma unites them, regardless of political tendencies. Former president Dilma Roussef (on the left) was tortured by the military back then, and another president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (on the economic right) self-exiled to Chile. Even beloved popular artists had to escape. And people actually died.
I think one of the real elements of danger here in the US is that a lot of people don't have tangible experience with dictatorship or authoritarianism and, more importantly, they're not willing to learn from history or recent events in other countries. They fail to see how fragile democracy is and how bad the outcome can be if they break it. I'm rooting for you in Brazil, and I only wish it would be a bigger story here that people would learn from.
From the (updated, presumably) article:
The Supreme Court just removed the recently elected governor of Brasília from office for the next 90 days due to his gross incompetence and possible collaboration. Edit: according to jurists, the Supreme Court acted out of its prerogative to respond to attacks directed at the Court itself.
That kind of decision is not at all common and historical in itself.
The court also ordered numerous measures to suppress terrorist cells all over the country, along with express orders to identify, restrict, and punish the terrorists.
The Supreme Court is at the moment being way more aggressive than the president, and, in my view, they are entirely reasonable in doing so.
They also prohibited protests of any kind in Brasilia, but I don't recall for how long.
It's important to notice that the Supreme Court's building was basically destroyed from to to bottom, including the office of Alexandre de Moraes,
currently serving as chief of the Supreme Court(actually Rosa Weber), who was responsible for that swift response.The consensus among specialists is that Brazil will never be the same, and it's unfortunate that our political class will have to deal with terrorism when our economy needs attention.
Like in the US, many terrorists justify their actions with delirious conspiracy theories.
The silver lining is that the country is very much united against domestic terrorism right now and support for the insurrection among the public is virtually non existent. The media, including those on the right, universally condemned the insurrection and rightfully labeled them as the criminals and terrorists that they are. In this sad day, I can feel proud of my fellow Brazilians.
Our democracy will prevail.
Edit: forgot to mention that during the attack Brasília's now former Secretary of Security was in Florida, the same place Jair Bolsonaro chose to evade justice.
That is indeed a silver lining, and I'm envious of it. I hope it all works out for the better in the long run!
How Trump's allies stoked Brazil Congress attack
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64206484
Not surprisingly, this event in Brazil is being ignored by right-leaning US news media.
https://useclarity.com/weekly/bolsonaro-brazil
Brazil’s army chief fired in aftermath of capital uprising - Associated Press, article in English.
More information - article in Portuguese.
In the weeks before and after the attack of January 8th, many terrorist cells occupied areas right in front of Army bases around the country. Army Officials either tolerated or supported the "terrorist shanty towns", in some cases preventing the Police from dismantling them. The firing of the Army's top commanders is a consequence of their incompetence and collaboration with the terrorists.
Due to suspicions after January 8th, Lula changes leaderships in police and intelligence agencies throughout the country - article in Portuguese
Coups happen when the army supports them - it's a requirement, but not a given.
Firing the army chief makes a lot of sense.
Good job defending this one.
It's not just leadership either. Radicals are being identified and quietly (and legally...) removed from all levels of police, military, and intelligence. In a sense, the terrorists gave a present to the left, because, otherwise, we would have to coexist with far-right radicals in the government during Lula's entire term. Now the president needs absolutely no excuse to remove them, and no one in their right mind will question it.
Brazil police find draft decree in ex-minister's house to illegally revert election (article in English).
Summary: Brazilian FBI found a handwritten document at Anderson Torres's[1] home that greatly strengthens the accusation that he colluded with Bolsonaro for the terrorist attacks. Anderson Torres left Brasília shortly before the attacks to meet Bolsonaro in Florida.
[1] The now fired Brasília Security Chief that is currently in the US, and whose prison was already ordered by the Supreme Court.
The news cycle slowed down a lot. Some specialists are criticizing the Supreme Court for overreaching beyond its role and legal prerogatives. Constitutional Law is way beyond my knowledge and understanding, so I asked my friend who is a good lawyer (and one of the most measured and fair people I know...). According to him, Alexandre de Moraes did go beyond what is allowed for him or the Supreme Court to do. He added that that is not a new thing and has been going on since long before the attacks -- like months or years. As I said, I approve of everything the Supreme Court did as a response to the attack, and I generally agree or at least respect pretty much everything they do. Someone had to take those measures, but maybe I'm only okay with that because, both now and historically, their decisions tend to agree with my own views. So take that as you will.
Brazil’s military blocked arrests of Bolsonaro rioters, officials say (Washington Post)
[...]
[...]
There's evidence of infiltration in pretty much every security force. That's gonna be a hell of a cleanup.
I wonder why none of them made a move? (Assuming they didn’t.) Seems like avoiding a military-led coup counts for something?
All I have are guesses, but I can share those with you.
According to the leading conspiracy theory at the root of all this, someone called "General Heleno" was acting in the shadows to reinstate Bolsonaro as a dictator. The actions against all Branches of Government were supposed to force President Lula to call the Military to intervene to maintain order. Once in control of the situation, the military would them remain in power and take charge of the country in a military coup.
That is a deliriant scenario.
First, it looks like nobody told General Heleno of the plan. All indications are that he was in no way involved with the attacks.
Second, while there are numerous sympathizers in the Army, the National Force, and the Military Police (which in Brazil is the larger ostensive police and not circumscribed to military bases), it doesn't seem that they were coordinated in any significant way. They answer to different commanders, and not all of them are Bolsonarists. Also, there is little indication that either the Polícia Federal (Brazil's FBI) or ABIN (Brazil's CIA) were compromised to a significant extent.
My theory is that a lot of people were willing to throw some gasoline in the fire, but no one really wanted to risk publicly taking charge of the coup. Bolsonaro was in Florida eating KFC, and his ex-vice-president Mourão (a way more competent and dangerous man) kept a safe distance from the events. The coup lacked a charismatic figure to coordinate their efforts and for people to rally around.
Up until now, Brazilian institutions are showing a remarkable ability to react appropriately to the challenge and I applaud them for that. However, once more, I am forced to recognize that the sheer incompetence of the far-right was what ultimately saved us.
EDIT: (I really hope this doesn't bite me in the ass, but...) I would also like to add that Brazil is a country of 214.3 million people with an area of 8.516 million km². Taking over a country like Brazil would require massive resources, masterful logistics, immense popular support, and the ability to deal with multiple pro-democracy insurrections. The far-right doesn't have any of that. When you think about coups in Latin American countries, those countries are all orders of magnitude smaller than Brazil. For example, Peru has 33.72 million, and Venezuela has 28.2 million. Brazil is simply more difficult to control. To take over Brazil in 2022 would require a long-term strategy of erosion of democratic institutions, which might resemble more the ascension of Vladimir Putin than, say, Hugo Chávez or Nicolás Maduro.
Brazil riots: Brasília's ex-security chief arrested on return to city (BBC - article in English).
I can't wait for this to happen in Mexico when Morena loses the presidency next year. Or maybe the opposition will do it if Morena wins. Who knows? 😬