9 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - April 20

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Tags: russia, ukraine, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

11 comments

  1. riQQ
    Link
    Top Kremlin critic convicted of treason, gets 25 years

    Top Kremlin critic convicted of treason, gets 25 years

    A Russian court on Monday convicted top opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr. of treason for publicly denouncing Moscow’s war in Ukraine and sentenced him to 25 years in prison as part of the Kremlin’s relentless crackdown on critics of the invasion.

    The political activist and journalist, who twice survived poisonings he blamed on Russian authorities, has rejected the charges against him as punishment for standing up to President Vladimir Putin and likened the proceedings to the show trials under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

    7 votes
  2. cmccabe
    Link
    All Nato members have agreed Ukraine will eventually join, says Stoltenberg https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/21/all-nato-members-have-agreed-ukraine-will-eventually-join-says-stoltenberg

    All Nato members have agreed Ukraine will eventually join, says Stoltenberg
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/21/all-nato-members-have-agreed-ukraine-will-eventually-join-says-stoltenberg

    The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said all member countries have agreed that Ukraine will eventually join the transatlantic military alliance once the war is over, ahead of a meeting of western defence ministers discussing further military aid for Kyiv.

    “All Nato allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member,” he said. “President Zelenskiy has a very clear expectation, we discussed this.

    “Both the issue of membership but also security guarantees, and of course Ukraine needs security. Because no one can tell when and how this war ends. But what we do know is that when the war ends, we need to ensure that history doesn’t repeat itself.”

    7 votes
  3. mycketforvirrad
    Link
    Denmark and Netherlands join forces to send more Leopard tanks to Ukraine Euronews – David Mac Dougall – 20th April 2023

    Denmark and Netherlands join forces to send more Leopard tanks to Ukraine

    Denmark and the Netherlands are joining forces to buy Leopard main battle tanks for Ukraine.

    The 14 Leopard 2 battle tanks will be delivered at the beginning of 2024 in a deal worth an estimated €134 million.

    In March, Denmark already announced it would team up with Germany and the Netherlands to donate at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks, which should be ready for Ukrainian forces to begin training in the coming weeks.

    Euronews – David Mac Dougall – 20th April 2023

    5 votes
  4. cmccabe
    (edited )
    Link
    More on the really big geopolitical maneuvering related to the Russia invasion of Ukraine: Anger in Europe After Chinese Diplomat Says Ex-Soviet States Not Sovereign...

    More on the really big geopolitical maneuvering related to the Russia invasion of Ukraine:

    Anger in Europe After Chinese Diplomat Says Ex-Soviet States Not Sovereign
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-23/fury-in-europe-after-china-s-france-diplomat-says-ex-soviet-states-not-sovereign Archived

    European states reacted with fury to a Chinese envoy questioning the independence of ex-Soviet states, tainting China’s push to court leaders in the region and burnish its credentials to broker peace after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Some “ex-Soviet Union countries” don’t have effective status under international law, Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye said in an interview aired Friday on French network LCI.

    “There is no international agreement to realize their status as a sovereign nation,” he said, after being questioned if he considers Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, part of Ukraine.

    After the comments, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia announced plans to summon the top Chinese diplomats in their nations to explain the comments. All three are former members of the Soviet bloc, which collapsed in 1991.

    EDIT: Despite some wishywashy language, and without explaining the remarks by Ambassador Lu Shaye, China has walked back the statements about lack of sovereignty among former Soviet republics:
    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-respects-ex-soviet-states-sovereign-nations-foreign-ministry-2023-04-24/ Archived

    4 votes
  5. [5]
    babypuncher
    Link
    Is there any indication of how or when this might end? Or can we just expect this to be the status quo for the remainder of the decade?

    Is there any indication of how or when this might end? Or can we just expect this to be the status quo for the remainder of the decade?

    2 votes
    1. [3]
      MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      With each passing month the equipment disparity increases, as modern equipment slowly reaches Ukraine and Russia digs deeper into its boneyards for older equipment. Russia has changed its...

      With each passing month the equipment disparity increases, as modern equipment slowly reaches Ukraine and Russia digs deeper into its boneyards for older equipment. Russia has changed its conscription law to make it easier and faster to conscript people, and has started conscription in places like St. Petersburg, where it's not just disfavored minorities being called up. Putin does seem dedicated to keeping this going, but nothing about how they're running this war indicates that they'll have any success moving the front lines.

      As such, the question is really on Putin to decide when he's had enough of throwing Russian lives and resources into the grinder, and/or on the Russian people to decide they've had enough of being ground up. Which one seems to be an open question, but Putin doesn't seem to get tired of other people dying for him.

      8 votes
      1. [2]
        stu2b50
        Link Parent
        I think that's overly rosey for Ukraine, unfortunately. Ukraine is quickly running out of materials, hence their increased calls for more ammunition from America and Western Europe. But it's going...

        I think that's overly rosey for Ukraine, unfortunately. Ukraine is quickly running out of materials, hence their increased calls for more ammunition from America and Western Europe. But it's going to get harder to get those supplies in, as America has already depleted much of its military armament stockpiles. Of course, it's also taking a brutal toll on the human populace of Ukraine.

        While equally if not significantly more tolling on the Russian side, they have the benefits of just having more people and resources. The world hasn't uniformly turned their heads away from Russia; Russia's energy exports recently were back at their pre-war levels. India, China, and other countries are buying Russian oil, replacing the lost demand from Western Europe.

        It's very much not a forgone conclusion that Ukraine has won or will win on a tactical or strategic level. There is no clear conclusion to the war currently.

        2 votes
        1. MimicSquid
          Link Parent
          Ukraine is using up their stocks of older materiel, yes. The world has run through a significant part of their supply of ammunition that's compatible with that older equipment. But that's not...

          Ukraine is using up their stocks of older materiel, yes. The world has run through a significant part of their supply of ammunition that's compatible with that older equipment. But that's not talking about all the equipment that exists, nor the ammunition for those newer systems. The real bottleneck is training Ukrainian personnel on the newer systems that exist and for which ammunition stockpiles are deeper. But unless Russia does something different, their current rate of advancement will threaten Kiev sometime in the early 2100's. I won't discount the losses suffered by the Ukrainian people, but in terms of manpower they aren't scraping the bottom of the barrel. Also, as they're defending their homeland, Ukraine can call on far more of its population to engage in self defense than Russia can easily call up its people to attack someone else, even under the pretense of protecting them.

          With regards to the oil sales: Russia's energy exports were back at their pre-war levels in terms of volume. The price is about 60% of what it was, leaving what's projected to be a $29 Billion budgetary shortfall, or more than a 3% loss of GDP.

          Note that I didn't say that Ukraine was going to win this war, though given the promise by the EU to incorporate them as soon as the war is over, they've scored significant geopolitical victories even if they end up conceding all of the territory Russia currently holds. But Russia has definitely already lost. The perception of Russian strength on the international stage has been fundamentally damaged, they failed to capture the majority of Ukraine, their economy is damaged, their demographic woes significantly exacerbated by the loss of a third of a million people of fighting/reproductive age, which is equal to all other sources of death in the past year in Russia. Let that sink in. They've doubled the rate at which Russians die in order to get some pretty war-torn dirt, if they even keep it at the end of all this.

          So no, I don't know if Ukraine will win, but Russia has already lost. The question is how much more they'll lose before the end.

          3 votes
    2. NoblePath
      Link Parent
      Based on @skybrian 's report below, not until sometime after 2028. Maybe longer. Some folks are making some good money here, now . . .

      Based on @skybrian 's report below, not until sometime after 2028. Maybe longer. Some folks are making some good money here, now . . .

      1 vote
  6. skybrian
    Link
    Unprepared for long war, US Army under gun to make more ammo (AP) [...] [...] [...] [...]

    Unprepared for long war, US Army under gun to make more ammo (AP)

    The invasion of Ukraine revealed that the U.S. stockpile of 155 mm shells and those of European allies were unprepared to support a major and ongoing conventional land war, sending them scrambling to bolster production. The dwindling supply has alarmed U.S. military planners, and the Army now plans to spend billions on munitions plants around the country in what it calls its most significant transformation in 40 years.

    [...]

    The Army is spending about $1.5 billion to ramp up production of 155 mm rounds from 14,000 a month before Russia invaded Ukraine to over 85,000 a month by 2028, U.S. Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo told a symposium last month.

    Already, the U.S. military has given Ukraine more than 1.5 million rounds of 155 mm ammunition, according to Army figures.

    But even with higher near-term production rates, the U.S. cannot replenish its stockpile or catch up to the usage pace in Ukraine, where officials estimate that the Ukrainian military is firing 6,000 to 8,000 shells per day. In other words, two days’ worth of shells fired by Ukraine equates to the United States’ monthly pre-war production figure.

    [...]

    Currently, the metal bodies for the 155 mm shells are made at the Army’s Scranton plant, operated by General Dynamics, and at a General Dynamics-owned plant in nearby Wilkes-Barre, officials say.

    Together, the plants are under contract for 24,000 shells per month, with an additional $217 million Army task order to further boost production, although officials won’t say how many more 155 mm shells are sought by the task order.

    [...]

    The factory — built for the Delaware, Lackawanna and Western Railroad just after 1900, when the city was a rising coal and railroad powerhouse — has produced large-caliber ammunition for the military going back to the Korean War.

    But the buildings are on the National Historic Registry of Historic Places, limiting how the Army can alter the structures.

    Inside, the floor is crowded with piles of shells, defunct equipment and production lines where robotic arms, saws, presses and other machines cut, heat, forge, temper, pressure test, wash and paint the shells.

    The plant is in the midst of $120 million in modernization plans and the Army hopes to open a new production line there by 2025.

    Still, clearing space for it has been a complicated task while the military adds newer machinery to make existing lines more efficient.

    [...]

    The Army has new contracts with plants in Texas and Canada to make 155 mm shells, said Douglas Bush, an assistant Army secretary and its chief weapons buyer. The U.S. is also looking overseas to allies to expand production, Bush said.

    Once the shells are finished in Scranton, they are shipped to the Iowa Army Ammunition Plant, where they are packed with explosives, fitted with fuses and packaged for final delivery.

    2 votes
  7. cmccabe
    Link
    China doesn’t want peace in Ukraine, Czech president Peter Pavl warns https://www.politico.eu/article/trust-china-ukraine-czech-republic-petr-pavel-nato-defense/ Pavel Is a former NATO general....

    China doesn’t want peace in Ukraine, Czech president Peter Pavl warns
    https://www.politico.eu/article/trust-china-ukraine-czech-republic-petr-pavel-nato-defense/

    “I believe that it is in China’s interest to prolong the status quo,” Pavel said, “because it can push Russia to a number of concessions.”

    Beijing, he said in an interview late last week, can get cheap oil, gas and other resources from Moscow — in exchange for its “no limits” partnership with the Kremlin. “It is also good for China that the West is probably becoming a little bit weaker by supporting Ukraine,” he added.

    Pavel’s remarks seemed prescient when, only hours after he spoke, China’s ambassador to France provoked indignation by proclaiming that former Soviet countries have “no effective status” in international law — a comment that came in response to a question about whether Crimea belongs to Ukraine.

    Pavel, who took office as president last month, said Beijing is [also] using the war to learn.

    “China is taking lessons out of the conflict every day,” Pavel said. “They closely follow what Russia is doing, how the West is reacting.”

    Pavel Is a former NATO general. His comments seem almost obvious now but are (to me) surprisingly unspoken by other leaders or analysts.

    1 vote