A segue from @llb's post earlier, which you can read here. Johnson earlier received a copy of the privileges committee's report in advance of its publication. I suppose it mustn't have read very...
A segue from @llb's post earlier, which you can read here. Johnson earlier received a copy of the privileges committee's report in advance of its publication.
I suppose it mustn't have read very well.
In any case, this will be a tough by-election for the government, particularly if Johnson chooses to not stand again as he's locally popular.
There's some chance. A recent poll in Johnson's constituency puts the Conservatives at 50% to Labour's 33%, but specifically with the proviso that Johnson is the Conservative candidate. Electoral...
There's some chance. A recent poll in Johnson's constituency puts the Conservatives at 50% to Labour's 33%, but specifically with the proviso that Johnson is the Conservative candidate. Electoral Calculus' model suggests that the seat would flip to the Labour party at a general election, however.
If the by-election campaign turned into a referendum on national issues, then Labour can reasonably be expected to perform well.
However, if it became a platform for local issues, then the Conservatives could outperform expectations. This is because London Labour have faced stiff opposition to environmental measures such as the extended London ultra-low emissions zone, which levies polluting cars heavily. Outer Londoners, who are more likely to drive cars, broadly resent this measure. Generally speaking, in contemporary London the Conservatives do better in local elections than in general elections.
So, being from across the pond, Johnson has not really been on my radar all that much since he stepped down from the premiership last year. How is this news being reacted to over there? Is this...
So, being from across the pond, Johnson has not really been on my radar all that much since he stepped down from the premiership last year. How is this news being reacted to over there? Is this functionally, finally the end of his political career?
In his resignation statement, Johnson said that he is sad to be leaving parliament 'for now'. Coupled with spending much more time in Oxfordshire recently, methinks he is on manoeuvres!
In his resignation statement, Johnson said that he is sad to be leaving parliament 'for now'. Coupled with spending much more time in Oxfordshire recently, methinks he is on manoeuvres!
I'd wager on him getting a peerage and moving into the house of lords. I have no idea what damage he could do there, but I suspect it will hasten the idea of an elected house of lords into the...
I'd wager on him getting a peerage and moving into the house of lords. I have no idea what damage he could do there, but I suspect it will hasten the idea of an elected house of lords into the public conscience.
I don't think Sunak would elevate him to the Lords and a Labour government certainly wouldn't either - the faction of the Conservative party which would happily elevate Johnson is very much...
I don't think Sunak would elevate him to the Lords and a Labour government certainly wouldn't either - the faction of the Conservative party which would happily elevate Johnson is very much declining at the moment
I think it's still a possibility. It's true that since John major, no PM has had a peerage, but for three of them it's because they refused an offered peerage, David Cameron chose to just retire...
I think it's still a possibility. It's true that since John major, no PM has had a peerage, but for three of them it's because they refused an offered peerage, David Cameron chose to just retire and the rest are all still MPs or (in Boris's case) resigned extremely recently.
I don't think Boris would decline a peerage if he is offered one. Alternatively I may be mistaken and the idea of automatically offering a peerage to former PMs fell out of fashion after 3 of them declined in a row.
I was under the impression that this convention was stopped because Tony Blair wasn't given a peerage, and to offer them to the 3 conservative PMs would have required offering Blair one as well? I...
the idea of automatically offering a peerage to former PMs fell out of fashion after 3 of them declined in a row.
I was under the impression that this convention was stopped because Tony Blair wasn't given a peerage, and to offer them to the 3 conservative PMs would have required offering Blair one as well? I could be completely, wildly mistaken on this though.
Honestly, I'm going based off Wikipedia, which does say two different things about whether Cameron was offered a peerage. See Life peerages See Prime ministers never raised to peerage The first...
Honestly, I'm going based off Wikipedia, which does say two different things about whether Cameron was offered a peerage. See Life peerages See Prime ministers never raised to peerage
The first link does mention that Prime Ministers get offered a peerage when they retire but doesn't provide a source. So I tried digging a little bit and this page just says that some MPs are offered peerages when they step down which obviously doesn't confirm that they do but given that it is extremely traditional for them to receive one I would say that it's likely that PMs are still offered a peerage when they leave the commons. Although in opposition to that it does state plainly that speakers of the house are usually offered peerages so perhaps not.
Boris Johnson has been described as the sort of person who follows you into a revolving door and comes out first. This is the end of his time as an elected politician, but he has sufficient...
Boris Johnson has been described as the sort of person who follows you into a revolving door and comes out first. This is the end of his time as an elected politician, but he has sufficient recognition and connections to wangle any number of important positions for himself. He thrives on attention more than actual power, so he'll probably go back to journalism, rather than taking on substantial business roles or lobbying. It's unlikely that he'll get himself elevated to the House of Lords.
It's basically just the current crop of Tories. They've been doing fraud and corruption for the past 13 years and it's finally caught up with them, so the country and government are in a perpetual...
It's basically just the current crop of Tories. They've been doing fraud and corruption for the past 13 years and it's finally caught up with them, so the country and government are in a perpetual state of collapse and rather than calling a general election and letting the opposition take power (which is fairly certain at this point) they keep changing their leader every year.
Sorry for taking a while to get to this - it's been a busy couple of days for me. The UK has a parliamentary system of government, meaning that the executive and legislative branches are tied...
Sorry for taking a while to get to this - it's been a busy couple of days for me. The UK has a parliamentary system of government, meaning that the executive and legislative branches are tied together. Government ministers must either be members of the House of Commons or House of Lords (in practice, all the senior positions are MPs, not peers). This means that the shelf life of ministers can be pretty vicious. Even if you're not subject to political drama, you can be reshuffled out of the ministerial team by the prime minister if you're not perceived to be performing well enough. In the cases of Johnson and Cameron, now that they've ceased to be prime ministers they don't like the idea of being a backbench MP without ministerial responsibilities, so resigned from their seats.
A segue from @llb's post earlier, which you can read here. Johnson earlier received a copy of the privileges committee's report in advance of its publication.
I suppose it mustn't have read very well.
In any case, this will be a tough by-election for the government, particularly if Johnson chooses to not stand again as he's locally popular.
do you think Labour has a chance of seat pick-up?
There's some chance. A recent poll in Johnson's constituency puts the Conservatives at 50% to Labour's 33%, but specifically with the proviso that Johnson is the Conservative candidate. Electoral Calculus' model suggests that the seat would flip to the Labour party at a general election, however.
If the by-election campaign turned into a referendum on national issues, then Labour can reasonably be expected to perform well.
However, if it became a platform for local issues, then the Conservatives could outperform expectations. This is because London Labour have faced stiff opposition to environmental measures such as the extended London ultra-low emissions zone, which levies polluting cars heavily. Outer Londoners, who are more likely to drive cars, broadly resent this measure. Generally speaking, in contemporary London the Conservatives do better in local elections than in general elections.
Thank you for the thorough response, I'll be keeping my eyes out for this race.
So, being from across the pond, Johnson has not really been on my radar all that much since he stepped down from the premiership last year. How is this news being reacted to over there? Is this functionally, finally the end of his political career?
In his resignation statement, Johnson said that he is sad to be leaving parliament 'for now'. Coupled with spending much more time in Oxfordshire recently, methinks he is on manoeuvres!
Not sure if that was unintentional, but pretty funny!
I'd wager on him getting a peerage and moving into the house of lords. I have no idea what damage he could do there, but I suspect it will hasten the idea of an elected house of lords into the public conscience.
I don't think Sunak would elevate him to the Lords and a Labour government certainly wouldn't either - the faction of the Conservative party which would happily elevate Johnson is very much declining at the moment
I think it's still a possibility. It's true that since John major, no PM has had a peerage, but for three of them it's because they refused an offered peerage, David Cameron chose to just retire and the rest are all still MPs or (in Boris's case) resigned extremely recently.
I don't think Boris would decline a peerage if he is offered one. Alternatively I may be mistaken and the idea of automatically offering a peerage to former PMs fell out of fashion after 3 of them declined in a row.
I was under the impression that this convention was stopped because Tony Blair wasn't given a peerage, and to offer them to the 3 conservative PMs would have required offering Blair one as well? I could be completely, wildly mistaken on this though.
Honestly, I'm going based off Wikipedia, which does say two different things about whether Cameron was offered a peerage.
See Life peerages
See Prime ministers never raised to peerage
The first link does mention that Prime Ministers get offered a peerage when they retire but doesn't provide a source. So I tried digging a little bit and this page just says that some MPs are offered peerages when they step down which obviously doesn't confirm that they do but given that it is extremely traditional for them to receive one I would say that it's likely that PMs are still offered a peerage when they leave the commons. Although in opposition to that it does state plainly that speakers of the house are usually offered peerages so perhaps not.
Boris Johnson has been described as the sort of person who follows you into a revolving door and comes out first. This is the end of his time as an elected politician, but he has sufficient recognition and connections to wangle any number of important positions for himself. He thrives on attention more than actual power, so he'll probably go back to journalism, rather than taking on substantial business roles or lobbying. It's unlikely that he'll get himself elevated to the House of Lords.
Laughs in Brazilian...
British politicians sure resign a lot. Could anyone give an explanation on the reason why?
It's basically just the current crop of Tories. They've been doing fraud and corruption for the past 13 years and it's finally caught up with them, so the country and government are in a perpetual state of collapse and rather than calling a general election and letting the opposition take power (which is fairly certain at this point) they keep changing their leader every year.
Sorry for taking a while to get to this - it's been a busy couple of days for me. The UK has a parliamentary system of government, meaning that the executive and legislative branches are tied together. Government ministers must either be members of the House of Commons or House of Lords (in practice, all the senior positions are MPs, not peers). This means that the shelf life of ministers can be pretty vicious. Even if you're not subject to political drama, you can be reshuffled out of the ministerial team by the prime minister if you're not perceived to be performing well enough. In the cases of Johnson and Cameron, now that they've ceased to be prime ministers they don't like the idea of being a backbench MP without ministerial responsibilities, so resigned from their seats.
Is there a comparable fall in British politics? From a record majority to resigning as an MP, without even facing another general election?
Britain Trump indeed.