37 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - June 15

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Tags: russia, ukraine, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

17 comments

  1. [2]
    smoontjes
    Link
    I highly recommend following this guy who is a military analyst and former lieutenant commander in the Danish navy. He follows the war quite closely but his uploads are kind of irregular - once or...

    I highly recommend following this guy who is a military analyst and former lieutenant commander in the Danish navy. He follows the war quite closely but his uploads are kind of irregular - once or twice a month or so. He also sometimes appears on Danish TV but his Youtube channel is better than anything on TV in my opinion.

    Perun is also good, he upload a 1-hour video every week. Sometimes his points run a little bit long and his analogies are kind of excessive - I'm also not sure about his background, I believe he's studying logistics and economics so some of his analysis might need to be taken with a grain of salt. But it's always worth a watch/listen when he uploads stuff! His topics are always very well researched and he goes in more depth with things than anything else I've seen.

    9 votes
    1. MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      Perun's background is in Australian military logistics and supply. He's explicitly said that he can/will not ever make a video about Australia, Australian defense, etc. It seems likely, though not...

      Perun's background is in Australian military logistics and supply. He's explicitly said that he can/will not ever make a video about Australia, Australian defense, etc. It seems likely, though not certain, that he has security clearance and they have cleared his channel to talk about some topics but not others. This is all supposition, though.

      8 votes
  2. unkz
    Link
    Special operation in the Kherson region: SSO fighters rescued the occupiers who were drowning after the hydroelectric power station was blown up After the dam blew, Ukrainians went to...

    Special operation in the Kherson region: SSO fighters rescued the occupiers who were drowning after the hydroelectric power station was blown up

    After the dam blew, Ukrainians went to rescue/capture some stranded Russians. Then other Russian troops fired on the Ukrainians and the rescued Russians.

    9 votes
  3. unkz
    Link
    Russians Furious After Ukraine HIMARS Strike ‘Kills 100 Troops Waiting for Commander’s Speech’ Ukraine has not officially confirmed the strike, but one official told Kyiv Post they ‘stood in the...

    Russians Furious After Ukraine HIMARS Strike ‘Kills 100 Troops Waiting for Commander’s Speech’

    Ukraine has not officially confirmed the strike, but one official told Kyiv Post they ‘stood in the open air for two hours’, long enough to 'transport the HIMARS, enter the coordinates and hit them.'

    6 votes
  5. [6]
    streblo
    Link
    Ukraine’s Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem ... ... ... ...

    Ukraine’s Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem

    The Ka-52 has two main anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) options. The 9M120-1 Ataka-1 has a maximum range of 3.7 miles, while the 9A4172K Vikhr-1 can reach targets at 5-6 miles. Both missiles use laser beam-riding guidance, although 9M120 missiles with radio-command guidance can also be used.

    "The Ka-52 is the only Russian attack helicopter fielded in large numbers that is able to employ the 9A4172K Vikhr-1, which has a substantial range advantage over older Russian helicopter-launched ATGMs," Plopsky observes.

    ...

    However, Plopsky also notes that there are also some disadvantages to these Ka-52 tactics.

    “When launched from low levels and slant ranges of 8 kilometers or so, the Vikhr-1 requires some 23-25 seconds to reach its target, during which time the Ka-52 must remain relatively still in order to guide the laser beam-riding missile to its target. This leaves the Ka-52 potentially vulnerable to longer-range air defenses, such as Ukrainian radar-guided SAM systems. That said, the Russians have been able to mitigate this threat — they have gotten much better at conducting suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) at the tactical depth, which has made it much more dangerous for Ukrainian radar-guided SAM systems to operate closer to the front line, especially for longer periods of time.”

    ...

    While the limited availability of mobile SHORAD systems to support Ukrainian armor and other forces at the front may be a growing concern, there is also anecdotal evidence that Ukraine is increasingly being forced to deploy other ground-based air defense systems, including medium- and long-range ones, in these high-threat areas.

    ...

    As it stands, Ukraine’s maneuver SHORAD capabilities comprise a mix of surviving Soviet-era systems and newly received Western equipment. However, much of the air defense aid for Ukraine so far has been focused on the medium and long-range systems.

    ...

    The SHORAD problem is exacerbated by the very real lack of systems in this class in the U.S. inventory and in the inventories of its many allies. Post-Cold War, the United States and much of NATO neglected SHORAD capabilities, confident in the likelihood of air superiority in most likely combat zones. While Ukraine shows that the tactical realities of the modern battlefield have changed dramatically, backfilling the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ inventory with suitable systems is not an easy task.

    4 votes
    1. [5]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      A year ago I would have called you crazy for suggesting that tactical aviation could be relevant at the front line. There seems to be a need for a missile system with more range than a...

      A year ago I would have called you crazy for suggesting that tactical aviation could be relevant at the front line. There seems to be a need for a missile system with more range than a particularly long toothpick, that is passive until launch (i.e. no radar). You'd think IRIS-T might help, if you left out the part where the ground based system needs a radar for acquisition. Still befuddles me why they don't use the missile's sensor even a little bit for acquisition. Maybe it needs limited coolant to keep the tip cool?

      2 votes
      1. [4]
        streblo
        Link Parent
        I guess the question is, how do you do acquisition at all then? Most of these units probably have no idea they are being engaged at all. Someone in the comments speculated about a loitering manpad...

        I guess the question is, how do you do acquisition at all then? Most of these units probably have no idea they are being engaged at all. Someone in the comments speculated about a loitering manpad munition, which is an interesting idea but I'm not sure if it's feasible.

        1 vote
        1. [3]
          vektor
          Link Parent
          Well, my idea is kind of to have the missile tip continuously search the sky everywhere. The IRIS-T supposedly can look 90° off boresight. Means if you erect one vertically, the missile can see...

          Well, my idea is kind of to have the missile tip continuously search the sky everywhere. The IRIS-T supposedly can look 90° off boresight. Means if you erect one vertically, the missile can see the entire sky. Have it act as it's own IRST system. You're reliant on line-of-sight, but so is the Ka-52. I'm not sure though how capable the IRIS-T tip would be at actually finding targets at range.

          1. [2]
            streblo
            Link Parent
            I'm just an amateur but it's my understanding that the IRIS-T is multi-stage and the first section delivers the missile to the area of intercept via radio communication with a radar. Then the...

            I'm just an amateur but it's my understanding that the IRIS-T is multi-stage and the first section delivers the missile to the area of intercept via radio communication with a radar. Then the final section uses infrared seeking to intercept the target. I don't know what the range of the IR seeker is, but I would guess a few km at best, particularly if we're talking about a Ka-52 barely cresting ~3 miles away?

            1. vektor
              Link Parent
              You're talking about the way the IRIS-T-SL(S/M) works. The OG Iris-T, which only relies on the IR seeker, has a listed range of 25km. That could be merely the kinetic range, not the sensor range,...

              You're talking about the way the IRIS-T-SL(S/M) works.

              The OG Iris-T, which only relies on the IR seeker, has a listed range of 25km. That could be merely the kinetic range, not the sensor range, but regardless, the missile is listed as a medium-range IR AAM, so I expect the sensor to have a decent bit of range.

              Granted, starting from dense air, kinetics are always inferior, and a radar will outperform the IR seeker almost certainly. But the point here isn't to compete with IRIS-T-SLM or IRIS-T-SLS. The point is to put a small missile on a small vehicle and put it in a possibly camouflaged position, or moving with armored assault formations. Alligator shows up, radar warning receiver tells the pilot there's no radar out there, so he starts engaging. Out of nowhere, missile launch warning, 10 seconds warning time, and nothing much you can do.

              It's a Stinger, just 2-3 times the range. I'm thinking using IRIS-T in a minimalist launcher, utilizing the missile's seeker, it should basically end up being a slightly larger Stinger. Granted, too large to be man-portable. But the missile's already got everything it needs.

              I really wonder why that's not a thing. It seems like such a no-brainer to use IR much more for SHORAD, especially considering Radar is such a dead giveaway. I'm either a genius, or I'm missing something, and I bet I'm missing something. Maybe the thing is that NATO planners weren't really worried about enemy anti-radar capabilities, so were never too worried about having their radars emitting, and the bigger threat radius was worth it?

              1 vote
  6. unkz
    Link
    Spain to hand over 20 APCs and 4 Leopards to Ukraine Spain will send 20 armoured vehicles and 4 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, as well as provide a military hospital. … The Spanish Minister of...

    Spain to hand over 20 APCs and 4 Leopards to Ukraine

    Spain will send 20 armoured vehicles and 4 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, as well as provide a military hospital.

    …

    The Spanish Minister of Defence also announced the transfer of a Role 2 plus field hospital to Ukraine. The 12 containers of the hospital will meet the needs of the brigade in surgical, stabilisation and other medical measures.

    3 votes
  7. unkz
    Link
    Russian forces face shortage of tanks as counteroffensive creeps forward Russia’s forces are suffering a shortage of tanks, the country’s defence minister has admitted, as Ukraine’s offensive in...

    Russian forces face shortage of tanks as counteroffensive creeps forward

    Russia’s forces are suffering a shortage of tanks, the country’s defence minister has admitted, as Ukraine’s offensive in the south and east continued to push back the frontline with the help of western hardware.

    Sergei Shoigu, on a visit to a military factory in western Siberia, said that production of armoured vehicles needed to be increased as Kyiv talked up the heavy losses being inflicted on the occupying enemy.

    3 votes
  9. unkz
    Link
    Ukraine recaptures southeastern village as long-awaited counteroffensive rumbles on

    Ukraine recaptures southeastern village as long-awaited counteroffensive rumbles on

    Ukrainian forces have recaptured a village in the country’s southern Zapororizhzhia region, a Russian installed official said Sunday, in one of Ukraine's first gains since it launched a counteroffensive earlier this month.

    Vladimir Rogov, a member of the military-civilian administration for the Russian-occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia, said in a Telegram post that the settlement of Piatykhatky was under Ukrainian operational control after a series of “wave attacks” by the Ukrainian military, which, “despite the colossal losses, yielded a result.”

    2 votes
  10. streblo
    Link
    Russian plot to kill defector began with a false story of his death …

    Russian plot to kill defector began with a false story of his death

    In the summer of 2016, a Russian news agency published a story about the death of a high-level defector who had been living in hiding in the United States. But the defector, Col. Alexander Poteyev, was, and is, alive; the CIA’s former station chief in Moscow believes the phony story was likely part of a plot to smoke him out and target him for assassination in the U.S.

    …

    Poteyev was exfiltrated from Russia by the CIA and has been living under U.S. government protection ever since. But in July 2016, the Russian news agency Interfax published a story that said Poteyev was dead. It wasn’t true, but the purpose of the story, according to Urban — and a view backed by Hoffman — was to generate “chatter” by Poteyev’s family and friends back in Russia that might allow the country’s intelligence agencies to pinpoint his whereabouts in the U.S. In law enforcement and intelligence circles, it’s a practice known as “tickling the wire.”

    2 votes
  11. cmccabe
    Link
    Pentagon says Ukraine accounting error revealed last month is much bigger than previously stated https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/20/politics/pentagon-ukraine-accounting-error/index.html

    Pentagon says Ukraine accounting error revealed last month is much bigger than previously stated
    https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/20/politics/pentagon-ukraine-accounting-error/index.html

    The Pentagon announced Tuesday that the accounting error revealed last month was significantly more than previously stated and aid provided to Ukraine was overvalued by $6.2 billion rather than $3 billion.

    The accounting error includes fiscal years 2022 and 2023 and occurred because “in a significant number of cases,” when the US transferred weaponry, military officials counted the value of replacing the weapon instead of the value of the actual weapon

    1 vote