streblo's recent activity
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Comment on Non-parents give crappy parenting advice in ~life
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Comment on Slugs - how are you coping? in ~life.home_improvement
streblo Link ParentWow, that sounds like a lot of slugs. Maybe a raised bed fortress and a salt moat are in order? At least you can fight slugs though. My garden isn’t doing much because we had a very cold June and...Wow, that sounds like a lot of slugs. Maybe a raised bed fortress and a salt moat are in order?
At least you can fight slugs though. My garden isn’t doing much because we had a very cold June and now a bonkers hot July, I think the plants are just confused. The only thing thriving is our kale and our garlic, everything else has barely grown. And for us, the heat brings the arrival of white moths who basically end our ability to eat the kale because they lay thousands of eggs in the leaves and the larva basically devour the plant in a few weeks.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo LinkDemocrats Donate More Than $50 Million Online After Biden’s ExitDemocrats Donate More Than $50 Million Online After Biden’s Exit
Democrats greeted President Biden’s departure from the presidential race with an avalanche of cash, donating more than $50 million online on Sunday and making it the single biggest day for online Democratic contributions since the 2020 election — with hours to go.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
streblo Link ParentI mean, whoever it ends up being is 100% going to be a checkbox candidate in the same way Kamala was, i.e. a white guy. I'm hoping for Shapiro as well, he's the smart pick imo especially given the...I mean, whoever it ends up being is 100% going to be a checkbox candidate in the same way Kamala was, i.e. a white guy.
I'm hoping for Shapiro as well, he's the smart pick imo especially given the state of PA polling.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden announces that he will not run for re-election in ~news
streblo Link ParentThe polling has been all over the map on Harris relative to Biden, so I'm not sure singling out an individual poll is useful. Here's an article with a bunch of recent ones listed. Also, regardless...The polling has been all over the map on Harris relative to Biden, so I'm not sure singling out an individual poll is useful. Here's an article with a bunch of recent ones listed.
Also, regardless of what the polls were or were not saying, Harris has been relatively behind the curtain for a VP. She has all the opportunity to make up ground whereas it was hard to see a path forward for Biden.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
streblo Link ParentPolling for hypothetical candidates is kind of terrible for a lot of very obvious reasons — the reality is that no one knows how Harris or whoever would poll against Trump but we do know how Biden...Polling for hypothetical candidates is kind of terrible for a lot of very obvious reasons — the reality is that no one knows how Harris or whoever would poll against Trump but we do know how Biden is polling and it’s really bad relative to how he should be doing.
The idea that all of this is just smoke seems like a pretty wild assertion. Something is convincing a significant fraction of the Democrats that this slightly hostile takeover is their best option. I don’t believe that’s just because of media induced panic but even if you do — that panic is not going anywhere. If Biden stays, every slip up, every gaffe is going to be firehosed at people for the rest of the election campaign. You can think that’s wrong or whatever, but that is the reality.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
streblo Link ParentThe idea that a large portion of the Democrats, including their leadership, are trying to remove their candidate because of what the media or people on Twitter are saying is ridiculous. This isn’t...The idea that a large portion of the Democrats, including their leadership, are trying to remove their candidate because of what the media or people on Twitter are saying is ridiculous.
This isn’t just some people being anxious — this is a lot of people who do this for a living deciding this is the best path forwards to winning an election.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
streblo Link ParentThis is an argument for replacing Biden. In an environment where every other D is doing well, Biden is behind, sometimes by 7+ points compared to down ballot candidates. Relying on a rate cut that...The down ballot senate races are strongly D leaning and there remain lots of undecideds so there is a strong argument to be made that as economic outlooks improve and rates cut the undecideds will drift back and commit.
This is an argument for replacing Biden. In an environment where every other D is doing well, Biden is behind, sometimes by 7+ points compared to down ballot candidates. Relying on a rate cut that may or may not come or an economy that, despite being alright, has horrendous 'vibes' is not a great plan.
Ultimately for me, where there's smoke, there is fire. We wouldn't be at a spot where pretty much every major D is working behind the scenes to convince Biden to step down otherwise. I find it hilarious that on Twitter the most recent (astroturfed?) campaign is to paint this as some sort of conspiracy orchestrated by Rs. People have eyes, you guys.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
streblo Link ParentThis is such a completely wrong read of the situation you seem to be using as a soap box. The ‘DNC elite’ in this case are seemingly split between open convention and a Harris nom.The objection, and the position the Democrat elite take, is an open convention would be uncontrolled. Unpredictable. Rather than being something they (the core strategists of the DNC) had planned and prepared and managed and handled. Something that was fully in their grasp at every single moment and step along the way.
This is such a completely wrong read of the situation you seem to be using as a soap box.
The ‘DNC elite’ in this case are seemingly split between open convention and a Harris nom.
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Comment on CrowdStrike code update bricking Windows machines around the world in ~tech
streblo LinkSo glad my company doesn't have any Windows boxes...So glad my company doesn't have any Windows boxes...
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo (edited )LinkNYT: People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race More rumored info here (newsmax):NYT: People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race
More rumored info here (newsmax):
BREAKING NEWS: Multiples sources outline the apparent state of play on Biden at this time:
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plans to announce withdrawal from nomination as early as this weekend, with Sunday most likely
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Jon Meacham polishing up remarks
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Biden with NOT resign the presidency
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Biden will NOT endorse Harris
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open convention with Harris and about 3 others
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super delegates will not be allowed to vote on 1st ballot
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Harris is vetting at least four possible running mates, including Andy Beshear and possibly Shapiro
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Comment on What games have you been playing, and what's your opinion on them? in ~games
streblo LinkI've been playing SOVL. It's a completely free as in beer game that's essentially a rougelike implementation of a fantasy battles tabletop game. There are various factions with different units you...I've been playing SOVL.
It's a completely free as in beer game that's essentially a rougelike implementation of a fantasy battles tabletop game. There are various factions with different units you can recruit and as your progress through the map you fight battles to upgrade your army and units. It's a great, simple game that you should definitely check out. There are no micro-transactions or anything, just optional paid DLC to unlock extra factions but there are already quite a few in the free game so there is no need to buy them unless you like the game and want to support the developer.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo Link ParentHere is some good reporting on Vance: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/18/jd-vance-world-view-sources-00168984... -
Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo (edited )Link ParentJD Vance is whatever Peter Thiel and company want him to be. Just a short tour of his history exposes him as a power-seeking chameleon without any underlying principles. I have no doubt he'll be...JD Vance is whatever Peter Thiel and company want him to be. Just a short tour of his history exposes him as a power-seeking chameleon without any underlying principles.
I have no doubt he'll be heavily featured in the Republican future but let's not hold him up as some authentic champion of middle america.
Edit: worth pointing out that Thiel and Musk reportedly pushed heavily for the pick to be Vance, with Musk's reported $45 million per month contributions being a carrot for said pick.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo Link ParentThey will continue to escalate if Biden doesn't step down. There is just far too much at stake to lose this election without ever having a fighting chance....They will continue to escalate if Biden doesn't step down. There is just far too much at stake to lose this election without ever having a fighting chance.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/politics/schiff-biden-democrats.html
(https://archive.ph/wkaVq)“I think if he is our nominee, I think we lose,” Mr. Schiff said during the meeting, according to a person with access to a transcription of a recording of the event. “And we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House.”
At least one donor who attended the event and listened to Mr. Schiff’s remarks said he left dejected, believing that Mr. Biden’s chances of winning were now slim and that they should concentrate giving their time and money to downballot candidates in the hopes of salvaging something for the party.
The thing is, Biden is way down in pretty much every battleground state right now despite outspending Trump. And that dynamic is going to flip soon, because Trump has a lot of money to spend and Biden donors are going to start jumping ship to try and save the Senate and take the House.
An underfunded Biden who is trailing in the polls (by 5-6 points in some needed states) and who 73% of voters think is too old to be president is just not going to win this race -- it's ludicrous to think otherwise.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo LinkPrivate efforts to nudge Biden to step aside continuePrivate efforts to nudge Biden to step aside continue
The public calls from Democrats asking President Joe Biden to bow out of the presidential race have quieted in recent days, but private efforts to nudge the president and his top aides continue, several Democratic sources told CNN.
These sources said Greenberg has sent several memos over the past two weeks since the president’s devastating debate performance, analyzing internal polling he asserts shows the president’s position continues to deteriorate because Americans overwhelmingly do not see him as up to serving four more years.
Greenberg has been a leading Democratic pollster for decades and his work includes advising Bill Clinton’s two winning presidential campaigns. He declined to comment when contacted Monday evening.
One Democratic lawmaker told CNN some top Biden aides get “the depth of this” but believe it can be turned around and in any event describe the president as adamant in the belief he can win. In his NBC News interview Monday, for example, the president again made clear he has no intention of stepping aside.
The lawmaker’s view was that it was counterproductive to make additional public calls for Biden to step aside right now, because of the imperative of a unified party response to this week’s Republican convention and because of the president’s repeated public statements about staying in the race.
But this Democrat predicted that approach would change if the polling and other data after the GOP convention showed the president’s standing deteriorating more.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 15 in ~news
streblo Link ParentThere's no electoral strategy here. Trump thinks he is decently far ahead at this point, he can prioritize what he wants for after the election And what Trump doesn't want to is to end up with...There's no electoral strategy here.
Trump thinks he is decently far ahead at this point, he can prioritize what he wants for after the election And what Trump doesn't want to is to end up with another Pence who might let pesky things like the law or the constitution get in the way of what he wants.
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Comment on What games have you been playing, and what's your opinion on them? in ~games
streblo Link ParentFYI both perfect dark and goldeneye are pretty playable with modern control schemes via the 'solitaire' control schemes and remapping the C buttons with RetroArch or whatever emulator you're...FYI both perfect dark and goldeneye are pretty playable with modern control schemes via the 'solitaire' control schemes and remapping the C buttons with RetroArch or whatever emulator you're using:
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Comment on Joe Biden's path to US re-election has all but vanished (gifted link) in ~misc
streblo Link ParentThat was before a polarized America, the 24 hour news cycles and the Internet. Apart from a Trump implosion, it's just not feasible for Biden to make those kinds of inroads in the time he has...It’s July. Dukakis was 12 points up at this point.
That was before a polarized America, the 24 hour news cycles and the Internet. Apart from a Trump implosion, it's just not feasible for Biden to make those kinds of inroads in the time he has left. And that was before Saturday.
Biden probably does not have 4 months here. He realistically has more like 1.5 (provided he doesn't slip further) because at some point Democratic money will shift away from the Presidency and towards salvaging the house and senate.
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Comment on Bernie Sanders: Joe Biden for US President (gifted link) in ~misc
streblo Link ParentThis is a bad analogy. People* who are saying Biden can’t win largely agree with his agenda and politics. This isn’t sour grapes or political angle shooting. This is people who are concerned at...This is a bad analogy.
People* who are saying Biden can’t win largely agree with his agenda and politics. This isn’t sour grapes or political angle shooting. This is people who are concerned at the prospect of an election loss in this environment.
*At least the people you’re talking about. Plenty of progressives also taking the opportunity to take shots at Biden as well right now.
Yea it doesn’t match my experiences either.
One of the most common grievances among parents I know are grandparents using some sort of variation “well when we did it we just did X, can’t you just do X”.
In fact it’s so common that there are entirely TikTok/Instagram people whose entire schtick is based on making light of that.