It would be darkly hysterical if Prigozhin tries to hire Wagner Group out to Ukraine (again), no doubt in fear of polonium in his tea or Novichok in his underwear. It was only a matter of time...
It was only a matter of time before his upstart relationship with Putin became too much of a threat to other established centers of political power (e.g. the conventional Russian military). Wagner Group has been a valuable thinly disguised expeditionary force for Russia's hard power foreign policy for many years, destabilizing African nations that otherwise could keep mineral wealth to themselves and soften commodity prices. Wagner's help in circumventing sanctions isn't enough for Putin to ignore a large, battle-hardened military force with little or no allegiance to the existing hierarchy.
Update: Prigozhin claimed to be acting on intelligence that the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of general military staff, Gen. Gennady Gerasimov, had a private meeting on Monday in which they agreed to destroy Wagner Group. Wagner Group has now invaded Russian territory, taking the city of Rostov.
I am hesitant to wish the collapse of a nuclear armed state. This instability is concerning; perhaps Ukraine can make the most of the situation, but a PMC-controlled Russian government (unlikely...
I am hesitant to wish the collapse of a nuclear armed state. This instability is concerning; perhaps Ukraine can make the most of the situation, but a PMC-controlled Russian government (unlikely as it is) seems possibly worse than the current regime.
I would imagine there are contingency plans in place between other nuclear powers that game out collapses like that, in which they likely move to secure nuclear controls. having said that, i think...
I would imagine there are contingency plans in place between other nuclear powers that game out collapses like that, in which they likely move to secure nuclear controls.
having said that, i think there are tiers of collapse of a state, and i doubt we're going to see 0 to 60 tom clancy overnight.
Prigozhin served his purpose in taking Bakhmut, but now he's probably become too much of a liability and the Russian Army is following his example and just grabbing convicts from prisons to fight....
Prigozhin served his purpose in taking Bakhmut, but now he's probably become too much of a liability and the Russian Army is following his example and just grabbing convicts from prisons to fight. Prigozhin may have been angling for the Defense ministry position, but it's pretty clear that Putin has come out against him and that he needs to "bend the knee" or he's done. From what I've read, it sounds like Wagner group is more or less just a front for the Russian GRU (military intelligence, Russia's equivalent to the CIA). Most of their stuff is provided for by the GRU, with Prigozhin acting as a business administrator, I don't think Wagner mercenaries have any particular loyalty to him, he can just be replaced with somebody else. Everything he's been doing/saying has probably been allowed by Putin, he probably doesn't care about in-fighting amongst his generals.
I've only been following the war on and off. This is a big deal right? My understanding is Wagner is a significant % of the forces doing the fighting and so not only is this not just a small...
I've only been following the war on and off. This is a big deal right? My understanding is Wagner is a significant % of the forces doing the fighting and so not only is this not just a small group, but that will have potentially significant effects on the morale and ideas of the rest of the military?
If he, in fact, has all of Wagner mobilized behind him it’s a huge deal. If he just has a rogue faction within it then it may fizzle out. We won’t know the actual outcomes for sure until tomorrow...
If he, in fact, has all of Wagner mobilized behind him it’s a huge deal. If he just has a rogue faction within it then it may fizzle out. We won’t know the actual outcomes for sure until tomorrow (for Americans) at least. The fog of war is too thick right now.
It would be darkly hysterical if Prigozhin tries to hire Wagner Group out to Ukraine (again), no doubt in fear of polonium in his tea or Novichok in his underwear.
It was only a matter of time before his upstart relationship with Putin became too much of a threat to other established centers of political power (e.g. the conventional Russian military). Wagner Group has been a valuable thinly disguised expeditionary force for Russia's hard power foreign policy for many years, destabilizing African nations that otherwise could keep mineral wealth to themselves and soften commodity prices. Wagner's help in circumventing sanctions isn't enough for Putin to ignore a large, battle-hardened military force with little or no allegiance to the existing hierarchy.
Update: Prigozhin claimed to be acting on intelligence that the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of general military staff, Gen. Gennady Gerasimov, had a private meeting on Monday in which they agreed to destroy Wagner Group. Wagner Group has now invaded Russian territory, taking the city of Rostov.
Interesting times, folks.
Hope it will be Russia's implosion, and finally the end of this stupid war and Putin.
I am hesitant to wish the collapse of a nuclear armed state. This instability is concerning; perhaps Ukraine can make the most of the situation, but a PMC-controlled Russian government (unlikely as it is) seems possibly worse than the current regime.
I would imagine there are contingency plans in place between other nuclear powers that game out collapses like that, in which they likely move to secure nuclear controls.
having said that, i think there are tiers of collapse of a state, and i doubt we're going to see 0 to 60 tom clancy overnight.
Prigozhin served his purpose in taking Bakhmut, but now he's probably become too much of a liability and the Russian Army is following his example and just grabbing convicts from prisons to fight. Prigozhin may have been angling for the Defense ministry position, but it's pretty clear that Putin has come out against him and that he needs to "bend the knee" or he's done. From what I've read, it sounds like Wagner group is more or less just a front for the Russian GRU (military intelligence, Russia's equivalent to the CIA). Most of their stuff is provided for by the GRU, with Prigozhin acting as a business administrator, I don't think Wagner mercenaries have any particular loyalty to him, he can just be replaced with somebody else. Everything he's been doing/saying has probably been allowed by Putin, he probably doesn't care about in-fighting amongst his generals.
I've only been following the war on and off. This is a big deal right? My understanding is Wagner is a significant % of the forces doing the fighting and so not only is this not just a small group, but that will have potentially significant effects on the morale and ideas of the rest of the military?
Am I off on this?
If he, in fact, has all of Wagner mobilized behind him it’s a huge deal. If he just has a rogue faction within it then it may fizzle out. We won’t know the actual outcomes for sure until tomorrow (for Americans) at least. The fog of war is too thick right now.
yeah this a serious blow to the russian war effort, nothing good can come out of this for them.
The ouroboros begins/continues.
This war is just getting weirder and weirder the longer its active