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Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of September 2
This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant Israel-Hamas war content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.
Please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.
Israelis stage mass protests, general strike as hostages laid to rest (Washington Post)
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U.S. charges Hamas leaders with terrorism, citing Oct. 7 attack (Washington Post)
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I’m wondering how many other Americans have died in this conflict. According to this article from February, at least 23 Americans were killed while serving in the Israeli military or police.
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Yemen’s Houthi rebels target oil tanker in the Red Sea. US says rebels also hit Saudi-flagged tanker
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Is it unusual that direct hits from missiles would do little damage to an oil tanker?
Depends on where they hit and the kind of missile. Some tankers have definitely taken more damage from similar strikes, but there's a lot of ship there.
Does anyone else think/fear that there will be another October Surprise this year in the form of a military event in the Middle East?
I think things could escalate at any time. Why would one time be more likely than another?
Proximity to the U.S. election, hence the term "October Surprise". Usually an event engineered by Republicans to embarrass Democrats and cause them to lose votes.
Okay, thanks for clarifying. I have a general assumption that the world doesn’t revolve around the US, that local issues are more important. So based on that, I suspect that if there were an escalation, it would be in response to other events in the Middle East and influencing US elections would be way down the list of motivations.
For what it's worth: The party most likely to escalate is Iran, and they would prefer Harris over Trump. Hezbollah in particular is an Iranian proxy, as is Hamas to a lesser extent.
Israel attempting to escalate in a way to hurt Harris risks backfiring if they fail, since they depend on US support.
I'm curious what's leading you to think this. From even the last few months, it feels like Israel has been escalating tensions with both Lebanon and Iran, and opened an invasion of the West Bank
Nobody can tell the future, so I'll admit all of this is just my opinionated guess.
Israel knows it can only bite the hand that feeds it so much - - historically, and to a extent still, they've benefitted from bipartisan support . Every escalation they've made so far so far has had a pretext. The Israeli government knows that the conflict isn't going to disappear in 4 or 8 years, and so they can't afford to completely piss off either American party in an unforgivable way.
Iran on the other hand can escalate about as much as it wants, so long as they don't go something bad enough that the US is willing to send in soldiers.
What is the pretext for the invasion/destruction of infrastructure in Jenin, if you know?? It seems like it's not being reported on much at all.
Oh, wow, that's a reminder of my personal echo chamber. The first thing I saw about it was the justification. Though that's mostly because I limit how and where I check news on the conflict for my sanity.
Jenin has for many years been a stronghold for Hamas and PIJ in the west bank.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-longest-west-bank-raid-in-20-years-idf-aims-to-set-stage-for-future-smaller-ops/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/soldier-killed-16-injured-by-roadside-bombs-during-operation-in-west-banks-jenin/
Thanks for the links.
Allegedly, according to the IDF, it was to stop an impending wave of terror attacks from the west bank. We've had a few car bombs come through and a bunch of close calls, and allegedly heads of the Palestinian authority are concerned over a Hamas takeover of the territories (not that I think their preferred course of action was the IDF coming in and destroying more than 80% of Jenin's infrastructure...)
I believe the pretext they are using is that there is Hamas and PIJ Presence within the West Bank, and that they are fully invading to 'deal with it'. The context is that there is rampant settler violence which is supported by the IDF where settlers attack Palestinian villages, there are dozens of videos online showing settlers harassing men, women, and children but I am not in the mood to show them. I believe B'tselem probably has material covering it. On the other hand, there are terror attacks (some foiled, others not) within Israel done by Hamas, the most notable being a failed (?) suicide bombing in Tel Aviv a week or so ago. I say notable because it's the first time in 20 years they've done it, and I don't remember seeing any similar incidents in Gaza.
I'm not too sure about what exactly Israel wants to do in the long run. Many of these things are going to be harder to report on as time passes, given how hard it is to report within Gaza.
I had the same thought.
Her policies, so far, seem to be the same as Biden's and they had no trouble helping the October 7th invasion of Israel.
Trump is more likely to unquestionably support Netanyahu's Israel. He offered U.S. support for annexing the West Bank to Adelson's widow in exchange for campaign funds.
My comment was in particular to an "October surprise" escalation intended to change the course of the US election. Iran has no incentive to hurt Harris in particular over Trump. Some of Israel's right parties do, but there is a high level of risk to them if they do and fail (and even if they succeed, if the Democratic party holds a grudge)