25 votes

‘The Guest’: The Palestinian mastermind behind deadly Israel incursion

16 comments

  1. [7]
    nukeman
    Link
    It will be interesting to see if this holds in light of the attack. Anecdotal, but I have seen large numbers of comments from people stating that they either no longer support the free Palestine...

    (especially given that for example support for Israel is already seriously low among young Americans).

    It will be interesting to see if this holds in light of the attack. Anecdotal, but I have seen large numbers of comments from people stating that they either no longer support the free Palestine movement, or are at best indifferent to it.

    17 votes
    1. boxer_dogs_dance
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I have seen the same thing. I think a lot of commenters can see themselves in the people targeted, whether at the rave/music festival or other ways. If they had had the discipline to distinguish...

      I have seen the same thing. I think a lot of commenters can see themselves in the people targeted, whether at the rave/music festival or other ways.

      If they had had the discipline to distinguish between foreign tourists and Israelis and release the foreigners for example, attitudes might be different, or might not.

      What went down is very ugly, cruel, malicious, sexist toward the women victims, indifferent and brutal to the elderly. We are most of us observers typically shielded from war, whether regular or partisan/irregular. But also these Hamas fighters don't have the restraint of soldiers in a standing army (and war crimes exist and have always existed) It is one thing to say free Palestine. It is another to recognize that a successful revolt would also involve the massacre and abuse of Israelis.

      17 votes
    2. [4]
      updawg
      Link Parent
      I don't see how anyone can really support either side. I support the idea of Israel. I support the Palestinian people who really have been living in an apartheid state. I do not see how anyone...

      I don't see how anyone can really support either side. I support the idea of Israel. I support the Palestinian people who really have been living in an apartheid state. I do not see how anyone could actually support either entity though. Both just seem evil.

      15 votes
      1. [3]
        CannibalisticApple
        Link Parent
        I don't support either side at this point in time, as I'm aware I lack nearly enough information to make that sort of call or opinion. However, I deeply loathe Hamas after the music festival...

        I don't support either side at this point in time, as I'm aware I lack nearly enough information to make that sort of call or opinion. However, I deeply loathe Hamas after the music festival massacre. That's just plain terrorism and deeply disgusting.

        16 votes
        1. [2]
          3rdcupcoffee
          Link Parent
          Hamas does not represent most Palestinians. They’re terrorists by most definitions. However i think the formation of such a group was inevitable given the actions of the Israeli state and its...

          Hamas does not represent most Palestinians. They’re terrorists by most definitions. However i think the formation of such a group was inevitable given the actions of the Israeli state and its military.

          4 votes
          1. CannibalisticApple
            Link Parent
            Agreed, hence why I specifically mentioned Hamas. I loathe them both for the harm to Israeli civilians and Palestinian civilians, as the actions of Hamas have guaranteed an aggressive response...

            Agreed, hence why I specifically mentioned Hamas. I loathe them both for the harm to Israeli civilians and Palestinian civilians, as the actions of Hamas have guaranteed an aggressive response against Palestine as a whole. Not just from Israel, but from the rest of the world.

    3. ignorabimus
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Firstly research seems to show that moderate levels of violence (i.e. not this case) actually increases Israeli support for concessions towards the Palestinians (see e.g. this paper). Of course...

      Firstly research seems to show that moderate levels of violence (i.e. not this case) actually increases Israeli support for concessions towards the Palestinians (see e.g. this paper).

      Of course 1,000 civilian deaths is not a "moderate" level of violence. I think that western public opinion will really depend on the Israeli response – if Israel cuts the water supply for weeks we will see so many deaths that I imagine it will look really bad for Israel. Of course Hamas want to provoke Israel into essentially an ethnic cleansing of the Gaza strip – whether or not the self-declared "facist homophobes" in government will do so remains to be seen.

      The other (tangential) thing is that Hamas' intended audience is probably conservative Muslims in the Arab world – e.g. Saudi deal with Israel is less likely to happen now – whose states have gradually been moving away from solidarity with the Palestinian cause.

      3 votes
  2. [3]
    ignorabimus
    (edited )
    Link
    My guess is that Hamas realise that Israel is most vulnerable internally, and that through this attack they can essentially enact a "9/11 for Israel" whereby Netenyahu will be able to use this to...

    My guess is that Hamas realise that Israel is most vulnerable internally, and that through this attack they can essentially enact a "9/11 for Israel" whereby Netenyahu will be able to use this to justify annexing the West Bank (which will really cause problems) and also will use this to collapse Israeli democracy from within. If Israel moves in the direction of autocratic theocracy (as the right would like) this will seriously erode international support in the long term (especially given that for example support for Israel is already seriously low among young Americans).

    Excerpts:

    For Deif, whose nom de guerre meaning “Guest” is taken as a reference to the practice of Palestinian fighters spending each night at the home of a different sympathiser in order to evade Israeli intelligence, the assault was his most audacious, and deadly, yet.

    Hunted by Israel for decades, and almost killed in an air strike 20 years ago that reportedly left him in a wheelchair after losing an arm and a leg, Deif’s ability to outwit Israel’s military while killing soldiers and civilians alike has earned him the reverence of Palestinian militants.

    “Even before this, Deif was like a sacred personality and very much respected both within Hamas and by the Palestinians,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of politics at Al-Azhar University in Gaza. His biggest operation against Israel will have now turned him into a figure “like a god to the young”, he added.

    The most significant factor for Hamas is the sheer number of hostages hauled back to Gaza. Israel handed over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to free a single soldier, Gilad Shalit, after five years of captivity by Hamas in 2011.

    “Hamas understands very well that, when it comes to holding Israeli prisoners, patience is all they need,” said a regional diplomat who helped negotiate Shalit’s release. “Over time, the Israeli public will create the pressure. All Hamas has to do is wait.”

    “You should fight the Israelis inside Israel, and demolish their fantasy that they can be safe in occupied land,” said a Palestinian fighter turned mid-level politician who met Deif in the early 2000s.

    Within Hamas, the official said, Deif was an opponent of the complicated dance whereby Hamas would agree to halt fighting that sporadically flared in exchange for Israel allowing additional funds into the blockaded strip or more work permits for Gazans.

    While this arrangement helped to manage cycles of violence, it has also led to four wars in 2009, 2011, 2014, 2021 and then this one, all of which the militants portrayed as a victory.

    “This terrorist action has finished this practice forever,” said the Israeli official of Saturday’s assault. “Now there will be no truce, only retaliation.”

    Which is exactly, it seems, what Deif had always wanted.

    14 votes
    1. [2]
      gf0
      Link Parent
      I don’t know - they would like ‘have to exist’ in the first place, for that to matter. Also, so far the only international backlash is immediate revocation of any money going to Palestine.

      I don’t know - they would like ‘have to exist’ in the first place, for that to matter.

      Also, so far the only international backlash is immediate revocation of any money going to Palestine.

      2 votes
      1. ignorabimus
        Link Parent
        Sorry, who would have to exist?

        Sorry, who would have to exist?

        2 votes
  3. [6]
    unkz
    Link
    A lot of reporting has focused on the prisoner exchange idea. My feeling here is that this, if it is actually part of their motivations, will be a massive backfire. There was already a lot of...

    The most significant factor for Hamas is the sheer number of hostages hauled back to Gaza. Israel handed over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to free a single soldier, Gilad Shalit, after five years of captivity by Hamas in 2011.

    “Hamas understands very well that, when it comes to holding Israeli prisoners, patience is all they need,” said a regional diplomat who helped negotiate Shalit’s release. “Over time, the Israeli public will create the pressure. All Hamas has to do is wait.”

    A lot of reporting has focused on the prisoner exchange idea. My feeling here is that this, if it is actually part of their motivations, will be a massive backfire. There was already a lot of unrest about the Gilad Shalit trade and I suspect this will be taken as a lesson that negotiating with terrorists is a bad plan. All that trade did was motivate Hamas to take hostages. There may be some direct negotiating between Hamas and the countries of the foreign hostages, but I am doubtful that Israel will repeat their error.

    7 votes
    1. [5]
      ignorabimus
      Link Parent
      I think the real reason is to prevent Israeli reprisals against Gaza. In the event of a ground invasion videos of IDF soldiers shooting white, westernised citizens would be propaganda gold for...

      I think the real reason is to prevent Israeli reprisals against Gaza. In the event of a ground invasion videos of IDF soldiers shooting white, westernised citizens would be propaganda gold for Hamas. Of course the Israelis are unlikely to botch hostage rescue efforts to the same extent as e.g. Germany in 1972, but the psychological effects are quite severe – Israeli soldiers will be worried that a civilian of the kind they care about not killing could be in any building they strike, etc.

      4 votes
      1. [4]
        unkz
        Link Parent
        Yeah, I don't think that's going to be how this ends up working. I think most of those hostages are going to end up dead, and the same goes for most of the currently living Hamas fighters, along...

        Yeah, I don't think that's going to be how this ends up working. I think most of those hostages are going to end up dead, and the same goes for most of the currently living Hamas fighters, along with many, many, many thousands of Palestinian civilians.

        9 votes
        1. [3]
          ignorabimus
          Link Parent
          I agree that a lot of Palestinians are going to end up dead (possibly crime against humanity levels of dead) but I do think that the Israelis will try very hard to get the hostages back and almost...

          I agree that a lot of Palestinians are going to end up dead (possibly crime against humanity levels of dead) but I do think that the Israelis will try very hard to get the hostages back and almost certainly will take extreme measures to avoid a situation where IDF soldiers kill Israeli citizens taken hostage.

          3 votes
          1. [2]
            unkz
            Link Parent
            I think we will see the results very soon. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/09/middleeast/israel-gaza-hamas-fighting-monday-intl-hnk/index.html And It’s evident that this retaliation will be of a...

            I think we will see the results very soon.

            https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/09/middleeast/israel-gaza-hamas-fighting-monday-intl-hnk/index.html

            “We declare that we will respond to any targeting of our people who are safe in their homes without warning, with the execution of our civilian hostages, and we will broadcast it with audio and video,” Abu Obaida said in a statement on the Al-Qassam Brigades’ Telegram channel.

            And

            Earlier, IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht was asked whether it had stopped the “knock on the roof,” which is the Israeli military’s warning for civilians before it bombs a building. Hecht responded that Hamas did not “knock on the roof.”

            It’s evident that this retaliation will be of a different, more brutal nature, with the sole objective of ensuring Hamas militants are killed with no regard for collateral damage.

            2 votes
            1. ignorabimus
              Link Parent
              Hamas probably wants the Israelis to respond brutally against civilians in the Gaza strip, because it legitimises their strategy. Placing the hostages in buildings, using them as human shields...

              Hamas probably wants the Israelis to respond brutally against civilians in the Gaza strip, because it legitimises their strategy. Placing the hostages in buildings, using them as human shields against IDF soldiers, etc helps them in a psychological war against the IDF. They don't exactly have a lot of moral qualms.

              3 votes