nukeman's recent activity
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Comment on US Senate suddenly passes the Jeffrey Epstein bill just hours after it cleared the House in ~society
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Comment on A Cloudflare outage is taking down large parts of the internet - X, ChatGPT and more affected in ~tech
nukeman Link ParentCompared to the gold standard five nines reliability of ye olde telephone system? Absolutely.Compared to the gold standard five nines reliability of ye olde telephone system? Absolutely.
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Comment on New York City Council pushes to legalize bodega cats, giving them ‘purr-fect’ legal status in ~life.pets
nukeman Link ParentCats are for mice, dogs are for rats. Hence the proliferation of small terriers that can squeeze into small spaces and kill rats with ferocity.Cats are for mice, dogs are for rats. Hence the proliferation of small terriers that can squeeze into small spaces and kill rats with ferocity.
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Comment on Longest government shutdown in US history ends after Donald Trump signs funding bill in ~society
nukeman Link ParentThe filibuster is a Senate rule. There is a lot of flexibility in what the Senate sets as their rules.The filibuster is a Senate rule. There is a lot of flexibility in what the Senate sets as their rules.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of November 3 in ~society
nukeman Link ParentFor the folks still on Reddit, you should see r/neoliberal on this one. They are PISSED.For the folks still on Reddit, you should see r/neoliberal on this one. They are PISSED.
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Comment on Libertarianism is dead in ~humanities
nukeman Link ParentThe Libertarian Party had a power struggle that resulted in the Mises Caucus taking over and endorsing Trump over the actual LP candidate. Beyond that however, there’s the deeper issue that LP...The Libertarian Party had a power struggle that resulted in the Mises Caucus taking over and endorsing Trump over the actual LP candidate.
Beyond that however, there’s the deeper issue that LP attracted a lot of people who were deeply cynical about politics, hated the system, or were wildly contrarian. All these demos have tended to support Trump.
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Comment on US teacher shot by six-year-old student awarded $10m by jury in ~news
nukeman Link ParentIn Virginia, there is no age of criminal responsibility. You could hypothetically charge a newborn with a crime.In Virginia, there is no age of criminal responsibility. You could hypothetically charge a newborn with a crime.
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Comment on Donald Trump says nuclear weapons testing to resume in US after more than thirty years in ~society
nukeman (edited )Link ParentWith Trump, I’m pretty sure his motivations are “I like big booms,” wanting to show off to other countries, and the right folks having talked to him before his meeting with Xi. If there were...- With Trump, I’m pretty sure his motivations are “I like big booms,” wanting to show off to other countries, and the right folks having talked to him before his meeting with Xi.
- If there were issues with the stockpile, it would likely be handled without testing to the greatest extent possible.
- A few years ago, there was some discussion as to whether Russia or China were performing very low-yield (think under 100 lbs) tests. Both of them and the U.S. have signed (but not ratified) the comprehensive test ban treaty (which has a zero yield threshold). There were a couple of brief stinks made about it, but no formal or diplomatic protests were made. This leads me to think either nothing was happening or there’s another reason to not pursue it through official channels.
- As far as stockpile reliability, the computer modeling, component surveillances, and subcritical testing done all give high confidence. Explosive yield testing would increase this (I suspect in the realm of 95% vs 99% confidence, or 99% vs 99.999%), but not necessarily enough to justify the repercussions of doing so. In fairness though, sometimes old school testing just works. Imagine buying a new VW Golf in 1992, never driving it, but needing to be able to start it at a moments notice and drive 200 km on the Autobahn. Component testing and replacement would certainly help, but even being able to drive it around the block would be nice.
- The real places full-yield testing is useful is in new weapon development, weapon upgrades, and some safety testing. The weapons labs would love to be able to design new weapons and test them, rather than just having it be a theoretical exercise. New or upgraded weapons can be built for higher levels of surety, with it more closely integrated to the weapon. You could also improve the design from an EHS perspective. More interesting would be DHS building a couple of terrorist INDs and having DOE test them to look at feasibility, yield, and possible containment options.
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Comment on US Federal Aviation Administration reducing air traffic by 10% across forty ‘high-volume’ markets during government shutdown in ~transport
nukeman Link ParentNominally yes, but I’ve lived in smaller cities the last few years where I can show up an hour before if I don’t have checked baggage, 90 minutes if I do. It’s great!Nominally yes, but I’ve lived in smaller cities the last few years where I can show up an hour before if I don’t have checked baggage, 90 minutes if I do. It’s great!
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Comment on Donald Trump says nuclear weapons testing to resume in US after more than thirty years in ~society
nukeman LinkFor those who want to understand how we currently handle “testing” the nuclear weapons stockpile, see the 2025 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan. I’m also happy to try and answer some...For those who want to understand how we currently handle “testing” the nuclear weapons stockpile, see the 2025 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan.
I’m also happy to try and answer some questions (after work today).
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Comment on 'Intentional' explosion at Harvard medical campus under investigation in ~news
nukeman Link ParentIf it’s for controlled substances, the DEA standard is apparently TL-30, meaning it must withstand 30 minutes of being attacked by tools. Explosives are a separate rating (TXTL), and I suspect a...If it’s for controlled substances, the DEA standard is apparently TL-30, meaning it must withstand 30 minutes of being attacked by tools. Explosives are a separate rating (TXTL), and I suspect a relatively small amount of explosives could get you in.
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Comment on New research shows attention lapses due to sleep deprivation coincide with a flushing of fluid from the brain in ~science
nukeman LinkSo how long until we see some sort of CSF “doping” to allow people to stay awake longer with less side effects?So how long until we see some sort of CSF “doping” to allow people to stay awake longer with less side effects?
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Comment on Cyclist falls down 130-foot ravine in France, survives three days by drinking wine he had in shopping bag in ~life
nukeman Link ParentOnly way it could be better is if he had a baguette and cheese as well.Only way it could be better is if he had a baguette and cheese as well.
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Comment on Grieving family uses AI chatbot to cut hospital bill from $195,000 to $33,000 — US family says Claude highlighted duplicative charges, improper coding, and other violations in ~tech
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Comment on Topic marked for review by admin in ~test
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Comment on A Nazi tattoo exposes US Democrats’ greatest weakness in ~society
nukeman (edited )LinkSome not-super-organized thoughts: The question that isn’t often answered is what moderate/centrist voter actually means. They are not 50% or halfway there on each issue or split down the middle....- Exemplary
Some not-super-organized thoughts:
- The question that isn’t often answered is what moderate/centrist voter actually means. They are not 50% or halfway there on each issue or split down the middle. Instead, they have highly syncretic (often contradictory) views, are apathetic on many issues, but are firm believers on a couple of pet issues. In my experience, it’s broadly correct they are socially moderate (often with a live-and-let-live or “leave me alone” streak) and fiscally moderate to liberal (frequently with idiosyncratic tendencies, like low taxes but universal Medicare). They don’t like politicians, are skeptical of “the system,” can be persuaded or dissuaded by a highly charismatic candidate, may not vote in every election, and like authenticity; they can sniff out a lab-grown candidate (even if they can’t pick one with genuine beliefs). These factors all make it hard to attract them, but they form a decent portion of the electorate.
- Overlapping with (1), white working-class men are a tantalizing electoral demographic for a couple of reasons; (a) they previously formed a major backbone of the Democratic Party, (b) they represent 7-10% of the population, and (c) they are spread out more uniformly than other demos, offering the possibility of winning swing and lean-R states. White working-class voters have a white working-class culture. They aren’t reading Voltaire or Kendi in their spare time.
- Polling and messaging are two ends of the same coin. I agree that you can message to swing an issue (cf going from overturning the NC bathroom ban in 2017 to trans issue today for a GOP angle), and the poll chasing isn’t going to magically get you voters back. But issues can be stickier, and more people now are aware of trans issues today versus eight years ago. I think we can partially message our way out on a lot (including on trans issues), but it may only work on certain topics, and when the tone of said messaging is tweaked for “average” middle class sensibilities.
- Building off of (3), issue moderation is one that needs be worked carefully. I’ve said before that I don’t think you need to compromise much on trans issues (with the right messaging, I think you could get a median voter to agree to bathroom access and youth transitioning with parental consent. I agree it sucks for kids with non-supportive family, but better than the states with a flat out ban. I think sports might be a bit harder, but in some swing states you could get to a league by league basis). On abortion, safe, legal and rare is a good message that I think still has value, especially if you are running pro-life candidates in the South (and given the size of the old Dems for Life caucus, there’s at least a few seats there at the federal level). On guns, let’s just say I vote for Dems in spite of their positions on guns. This one would need a longer payoff (gun owners really don’t trust Dems on the issue at all), but current gun control proposals seem like old ones with new stuff tackled on, not understanding where the gun community has moved in the last 30 years (many hunters and target shooters have AR-15s now. It isn’t just tacticool weirdos) and not taking the chance to truly modernize things (I also think guns are a gateway issue to the GOP, but I can elaborate on that separately).
- Related to (4), you’ll need different candidates for different states. @georgeboff made a good point about Maine and Maine political culture. The increased nationalization of politics makes this harder. If the six-figure consultants can’t figure out a way around that (in terms of emphasizing candidate independence from the party), then fire them. But ultimately, if you want control of the Senate, the House, governorships, and state legislatures, you need to run candidates in every state, at every level, for every position.
- Continued from (5), the dearth of political talent and the seniority system Democrats employ has led to stagnation and to a hole that’s very deep. The GOP winner-take-all approach, for all its flaws, allows for younger talent to rise to the top.
Whew that was a lot. Sorry it turned into a wall.
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Comment on California Forever clears first hurdle in Suisun City annexation in ~society
nukeman Link ParentTheir view on “why” is that it’s almost impossible to get anything done in terms of improving/building LA or SF (cf the million dollar bathroom), so it makes more sense to build a new city where...Their view on “why” is that it’s almost impossible to get anything done in terms of improving/building LA or SF (cf the million dollar bathroom), so it makes more sense to build a new city where you have pre-reformed zoning and better urban design baked in from the start.
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Comment on Flights to Los Angeles International Airport halted due to air traffic controller shortage in ~society
nukeman (edited )Link ParentMy hunch is that a combination of ATC sick-outs (right in time for Thanksgiving!) and folks having no SNAP benefits (again, just in time for Thanksgiving) would end the shutdown. Who caves first...My hunch is that a combination of ATC sick-outs (right in time for Thanksgiving!) and folks having no SNAP benefits (again, just in time for Thanksgiving) would end the shutdown. Who caves first is the important question.
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Comment on What are creepy, spooky or scary places you've been? in ~talk
nukeman Link ParentNope, didn’t change it. Glad it was able to load properly. Here’s an archive link for those who can’t see the original.Nope, didn’t change it. Glad it was able to load properly.
Here’s an archive link for those who can’t see the original.
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Comment on In the early 1990s, Sweden faced one of the worst economic crises in its modern history – the lessons for other countries, especially France, deep in its own budget crisis, are simple, if not easy in ~finance
nukeman Link ParentI agree that pension reform in France is unpopular. My point was more focused on welfare reform =/= poor people become poorer. For France, I think the only way to get pension reform is either for...I agree that pension reform in France is unpopular. My point was more focused on welfare reform =/= poor people become poorer. For France, I think the only way to get pension reform is either for it to be rammed through, or for the Fifth Republic to collapse and be replaced by a Sixth Republic. Both of those have their own issues though.
They aren’t a single set of documents neatly bound in one binder. They are different files, spread out in offices throughout the country and in different formats (paper and electronic). Thorough redactions alone are difficult. Actually forging them (or even just striking pages) would be almost impossible to pull off successfully.