13 votes

Has international travel to the US really collapsed? (No, except Canada).

6 comments

  1. [5]
    Markpelly
    Link
    If the article asks a specific question, usually the answer is no.

    If the article asks a specific question, usually the answer is no.

    8 votes
    1. [3]
      redwall_hp
      Link Parent
      "Except Canada" can be read as "if you ignore the largest portion." I suspect the article's other call out is also very relevant: international trips from overseas are costly and are often booked...

      The decline in Canadian travelers, who make up roughly a quarter of all foreign visitors, is enough by itself to threaten tourism-oriented businesses in Florida, New York, Maine and other popular destinations.

      "Except Canada" can be read as "if you ignore the largest portion."

      I suspect the article's other call out is also very relevant: international trips from overseas are costly and are often booked months in advance. The costs are also typically not refundable, so there's a good chance the effects will be seen over a longer term than a quarter of a year. Hell, businesses don't even lay plans on shorter timetables than that.

      If I were planning, say, a trip to Japan...I'd be booking planes and hotels about a half a year in advance. Prices go up as you get closer to the time, and you have a higher risk of accommodations or flights being sold out. Ticket sales for events I might want to go to are also around that far in advance, usually. And at $1200+/ticket for airfare alone, it's not something you cancel and take the hit lightly, unless you're sure there's a strong risk of safety.

      23 votes
      1. RoyalHenOil
        Link Parent
        I also suspect this timeline is too short to evaluate major overseas trips. My partner (Australian citizen) and I (American-Australian dual citizen) were roughing out plans to visit the US in 2–3...

        I also suspect this timeline is too short to evaluate major overseas trips.

        My partner (Australian citizen) and I (American-Australian dual citizen) were roughing out plans to visit the US in 2–3 years to visit my family. We have shelved those plans indefinitely, and my family is instead organizing a trip to Australia.

        13 votes
      2. Markpelly
        Link Parent
        Thanks for sharing. I just have missed that part

        Thanks for sharing. I just have missed that part

        2 votes
    2. raze2012
      Link Parent
      Betteridge's Law of Headlines.

      Betteridge's Law of Headlines.

      4 votes
  2. skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/KjneI From the article: … … …

    https://archive.is/KjneI

    From the article:

    Many news outlets have reported extraordinary declines in international visitors during the new Trump administration, especially from Europe.

    But despite some ominous signs, a close look at the data shows that travel to the United States is largely holding up — at least so far.

    International arrivals did drop more than 10 percent in March compared with last year, but this was largely because Easter fell unusually late this year, pushing back a popular travel window for European tourists. More recent figures from April show that travel over the holiday looked similar to previous years.

    Canadians, angered by U.S. tariffs and Trump administration talk of turning their country into a 51st state, really do appear to be boycotting the United States. Ticket sales for travel in summer, a crucial season for the industry, are down 21 percent compared with last year.

    The decline in Canadian travelers, who make up roughly a quarter of all foreign visitors, is enough by itself to threaten tourism-oriented businesses in Florida, New York, Maine and other popular destinations.

    But sales of tickets for summer travel from the rest of the world are down only 2 percent compared with the same period last year, according to data on the 25 most popular routes from the Airlines Reporting Corporation, whose data covers about two-thirds of global airline ticket sales.

    Part of the explanation for the relatively unchanged arrival figures so far may lie in the nature of the travel business. Many international trips are booked months in advance, and can be hard to cancel, and so even a traveller who feels antagonized by U.S. policies may in the end get on a plane anyway.

    The outlook for summer travel into the U.S., however, remains remarkably fluid, and it depends on where you look, Airlines Reporting Corporation data suggests. Summer ticket sales from some countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, are down significantly from last year, but they have remained flat on other major routes. Elsewhere, including Japan and Ireland, sales are up.

    6 votes