15 votes

The risk of war in the Taiwan Strait is high - and getting higher

2 comments

  1. CannibalisticApple
    Link
    An important note: Taiwan is the leading producer of semiconductors and computer chips. This article from Wired last year mentions some specific figures. Emphasis mine. You don't need to read that...

    An important note: Taiwan is the leading producer of semiconductors and computer chips. This article from Wired last year mentions some specific figures.

    One of them, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), produces at least 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips. Collectively, Taiwan’s companies hold a 68 percent market share of all global chip production.

    Emphasis mine. You don't need to read that article, I just quoted it for the numbers. This article from 2021 about the 2020 chip shortage further breaks down just how dependent the world is on Taiwan, and shows how much the simple bottleneck slowed multiple industries all over the world.

    I'm pretty sure part of the reason Taiwan pushes this industry so much is to act as a shield if China ever invades or attacks. Taiwan has made itself basically invaluable to any industry which uses computer chips—which at this point, is almost all of them. This is an industry that can't easily be rebuilt in a new place. It would take years to set up new plants and factories, let alone reach similar production levels.

    If these Taiwanese companies stop or slow production due to China attacking them, the whole world will feel the pain.

    15 votes
  2. Fal
    Link
    Archived Link

    Archived Link

    Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are growing. Even before Taiwan elected William Lai as its president, in January 2024, China voiced strong opposition to him, calling him a “separatist” and an “instigator of war.” In recent months, Beijing has ramped up its broadsides: in mid-March, the spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office labeled Lai a “destroyer of cross-Straits peace” and accused him of pushing Taiwan toward “the perilous brink of war.” Two weeks later, as Beijing launched a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) circulated cartoon images that portrayed Lai as an insect.

    This effort to dehumanize Lai reflects Beijing’s deep anxiety about the trajectory of cross-strait relations, particularly what China views as Lai’s desire to push Taiwan toward independence. Compared with his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, Lai has taken a stronger and more defiant stance in the face of growing Chinese threats to the island, as evident in his rhetoric and new policy measures. This March, Lai characterized Beijing as a “hostile foreign force” and announced a plan to implement 17 wide-ranging strategies to defend the island from Chinese infiltration.


    Beijing’s attitude now should very much concern Washington. China does not view Lai’s rule as merely a continuation of that of Tsai. Instead, Beijing sees Lai as a disruptor like Chen and is treating him much in the same way. Since Lai became president, Beijing has demonstrated growing willingness to use military might to intimidate and punish the island. And it is far more prepared to use force against Taiwan today than it was 20 years ago.

    Apparent divisions within U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration about how to approach Taiwan compound these risks. If Beijing doubts U.S. commitments to the island, that could encourage China to engage in more coercive actions against Taiwan. All these factors dramatically increase the chances that Beijing will miscalculate—and that it could very well use force against the island around 2027, as China approaches critical military modernization milestones and Taiwan gears up for its next presidential election.

    6 votes