Russia’s summer offensive is turning into an escalating crisis for Ukraine

https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1950998968416215459

An update on the war following a recent trip. As Russian offensive presume mounts, the front is not at risk of collapse, though salients have formed. More concerning is that Russian improvements in drone employment have reduced Ukraine’s advantages. Long thread. 1/

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Since then, the Russian military began deploying its own offensive ‘line of drones,’ and improving how it employs drone units. Russian Rubicon drone units have spread to every Russian grouping of troops, and are the most spoken of challenge across the front. 5/

Rubicon formations focus on severing logistics with fiber-optic drones operating 20-25km behind the front line, destroying drone positions, and intercepting Ukrainian drones (winged ISR/heavy multirotor). In general, Russian drone units have become better organized. 6/

This does not mean that Ukraine has lost its qualitative edge in drone employment, but that the advantage has narrowed, Russian forces continue to adapt, and Ukraine must find ways to stay ahead. 7/

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The current dynamic is one of lines held by what are often 3-man positions with large gaps in between. These are neither firing positions, or observation points. They form a porous line in which infantry are often told to not to expose themselves unless absolutely necessary. 11/

Russian attacks are sometimes in 4-6 man groups, but in many cases have decreased to numerous 2-3 man sections trying to penetrate in between Ukrainian positions. Russian infantry seeks to advance as far as possible past Ukraine’s initial line and entrench there. 12/

Although many may be lost, some get through, and entrench awaiting reinforcements. Much the same can be said of motorcycle and buggy assaults, trying to bypass initial 'lines' and enter the rear. Most fail, but not all, leading to small tactical advances. 13/

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Although there is great work done detailing Ukrainian fortifications, most of the observed positions are constructed in the open and will never be occupied by units. They are easily targeted and destroyed. Ukraine lacks infantry to man most of them in the first place. 16/

This is not a war of trenches. It is a war of individual fighting positions, fortified and well masked units in tree lines, buildings, basements, or in dense forests. Occupying fortifications in the open is usually considered suicidal by troops. 17/

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There has been an exponential increase in Russian drone & missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. However, Ukraine is rapidly scaling up use of drone-based interceptors, paired with light radars. 25/

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Bottom line: Despite the challenges, Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces to incremental gains, extracting a steep price for territorial gains. Drone units are a key part of the solution, but by themselves may not be sufficient to stabilize the front. 34/

From the article:

Across eastern Ukraine, Russia’s tiny gains are adding up. It is capitalizing on a series of small advances and throwing significant resources into an emerging summer offensive, one that risks reshaping control over the front lines.

Over four days reporting in the villages behind Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk – two of the most embattled Ukrainian towns in Donetsk region – CNN witnessed the swift change in control of territory. Russian drones were able to penetrate deep into areas Kyiv’s forces once relied upon as oases of calm, and troops struggled to find the personnel and resources to halt a persistent enemy advance.

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The sense of an evolving crisis was most acute around the town of Pokrovsk, unsuccessfully assaulted by Moscow for months at great cost in Russian life. One Ukrainian commander serving near the town described “a very bad scenario,” in which troops in the adjoining town to Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, risked “being surrounded.” The officer added Russians had already moved into the nearby village of Rodynske, and were on the edges of Biletske, endangering the supply line for Ukrainian troops inside Pokrovsk – assessments confirmed by a Ukrainian police officer and another Ukrainian soldier to CNN Tuesday.

Drone from Rubizh Brigade Airlifts E-Bike to Evacuate Wounded Soldier