Bah. Green calls it for Coalition, and I'm out. You can swap out your leader, deliver zero policies of substance good or bad, fill your ranks with corrupt people, and all it takes to continue...
Bah. Green calls it for Coalition, and I'm out. You can swap out your leader, deliver zero policies of substance good or bad, fill your ranks with corrupt people, and all it takes to continue government in this country is make deals with racists and whatever the hell Palmer is.
Education and research cuts will continue, funding will continue to shift from public to private schooling, public money and funding will continue to tip from the lower classes of society to the top, and with One Nation and UAP knowing they pushed the government to victory they can hold the axe over their head from now to the next election and push their racists and backwards policies.
There is one plus for those of us who enjoy a bit of schadenfreude. The Coalition have been running their usual campaign on them being better economic managers than those Labor people who...
There is one plus for those of us who enjoy a bit of schadenfreude.
The Coalition have been running their usual campaign on them being better economic managers than those Labor people who supposedly keep stuffing up the economy. I read an opinion piece today which pointed out that Australians keep voting Labor into government either just before or just after problems start, so most of Labor's supposed economic stuff-ups are not of their own making. And there's another economic problem coming soon. In fact, we're already seeing some of the early warning signs.
In that case, we can finally watch the Coalition preside over a weakening economy, and watch them undermine their own commentary that they're better economic managers than Labor. Maybe we can finally see that changing the state of the economy is outside of the Australian government's power, and Liberal has only appeared to be better economic managers because Labor has been unlucky enough to be in power during the bad times.
I had a reddit thread where I discussed this happening - I also think the recession will be a global economic meltdown of kinds. I'm really quite pessimistic about the 2020s. I've noticed that in...
I had a reddit thread where I discussed this happening - I also think the recession will be a global economic meltdown of kinds. I'm really quite pessimistic about the 2020s.
I've noticed that in many countries, this is one of the first times where typically fiscally conservative governments will be in power during a slump. Austerity measures during a recession (which will inevitably happen in many of these countries) will NOT be popular, to say the least.
I'm Canadian, and I expect the CPC, our Conservative party, to win the federal election, and be completely unprepared for the economic mess they will have no choice but to catch halfway through their term. Back in the Harper days during the 2008 global recession, the Keynesians in the party probably saved their skin big time - but Canada suffered a lot, even if not as bad as the U.S. thanks to laws put in place well before Harper.
I think it will be fascinating to see how these governments maneuver a large fiscal crisis, and it could decide how politics shifts for a long time.
It's widely remarked that the Australian government's Keynesian tendencies during the GFC (Global Financial Crisis, as we call it) were what stopped us going into recession when just about...
Back in the Harper days during the 2008 global recession, the Keynesians in the party probably saved their skin big time
It's widely remarked that the Australian government's Keynesian tendencies during the GFC (Global Financial Crisis, as we call it) were what stopped us going into recession when just about everyone else around us went into one. Our Labor government of the time literally just handed free money to people to spend as they wished. They also invested in some infrastructure programs (which had the unwanted side effect of causing dodgy operators to enter those sectors, which led to some tradespeople's deaths - which the Coalition has never let anyone forget). We spent our way out of recession.
We don't have the money to do so now.
The Coalition are fond of reminding everyone that the only reason Labor was able to prevent recession here in Australia was by spending budget surpluses that they inherited from the previous Coalition government (the party in government changed only months before the GFC hit). But they still claim that Labor did the wrong thing.
However, the Coalition has now had nearly 6 continuous years back in government, and have not yet managed to get the budget back to surplus (although they're now saying it'll happen next year). They keep blaming Labor's spend-a-thon of a decade ago. But now they have no excuses. If we have another recession coming, and they can't prevent it, it's entirely on them: they've been in government for the past 6 years, and they'll be in government for the next 3 years. Anything that happens in the next 12 months is entirely on their watch, and they have nowhere to hide.
As you say, it will be fascinating to watch them deal with the forthcoming financial crisis.
I'll give credit to Harper where it's due. He allowed it to happen - he didn't capitulate to the fiscal conservative side of himself, and knew when to use Keynesian economics when he needed to. I...
I'll give credit to Harper where it's due. He allowed it to happen - he didn't capitulate to the fiscal conservative side of himself, and knew when to use Keynesian economics when he needed to. I don't agree with all of his policies, though some admittedly had some effect (I would question if there were better areas).
Certainly though, it's not solely thanks to the Liberals or anyone. It's in huge part thanks to Senators of all kinds, MP's of all kinds, etc.
There's a great quote of Harper even admitting to using Keynesian economic theory. It's one of my favourite clips.
Edit:
I really don't want to downplay Harper's role, but at the end of the day he's just the PM and head of party. He did have a top down approach to managing the party, but I think a lot of his fiscal wing acted appropriately. When I say Harper "allowed" this, I really do mean huge props for it. That's not something a lot of leaders would do - look at Trudeau and his staff with the SNC affair, for instance. I doubt there was much drama when push came to shove with the economic specialists from Harper's team telling him now was the time. Harper listened, and he did what was best for Canada - that's very big.
I'm no economist, but you could start by reading anything about the current and growing China-US trade war. That's already having economic repercussions around the world, and it has barely started.
Do you have any resources to read up on re: the things that make you wary about the 2020s?
I'm no economist, but you could start by reading anything about the current and growing China-US trade war. That's already having economic repercussions around the world, and it has barely started.
I have a list, but I'm not sure you'd have access to them. A lot of them are through my University's portal, and I wouldn't know where to find accessible stuff. I think I'm certainly overly...
I have a list, but I'm not sure you'd have access to them. A lot of them are through my University's portal, and I wouldn't know where to find accessible stuff.
I think I'm certainly overly pessimistic, and that you ought not listen to some crazy laywoman on the internet.
That being said -- I'm not the only one saying this. Most speakers I see talking about the next financial crisis will be telling you to watch China (which is exactly what I think, as well) and how their asset bubbles are forming, as well as watching student loan debt (ballooning like crazy, we all know that), and, of course, watch the regulations on banks.
Canada has extremely tough rules on banks thanks to the intelligence of our former governments (collectively). I think we will weather the storm fairly well. Depending on who is in power at the time, I think that will strongly affect who gets hit the hardest.
Prepare to tighten your belt -- if you don't have huge capital, you don't stand to lose much. If you have cash, hold on to it, wait FOR the crash, and then buy good stocks when they're low so you can make a profit off everyone else's misery. Saving, preparing to ride the stocks after the recession, may just get you into a better position afterwards than you were before.
Also: PROPERTY PROPERTY PROPERTY
I can PM you the reddit post I made, once reddit is back up and I'm awake, if you like.
While I'm a little worried about the influence of UAP (Australia's version of tea party, UKIP, trumpettes) in propping up the Libs via preferences, the fact Antony Green just called Tony as being...
While I'm a little worried about the influence of UAP (Australia's version of tea party, UKIP, trumpettes) in propping up the Libs via preferences, the fact Antony Green just called Tony as being out of a seat and effectively no longer a political character at any level has left me a bit giddy with joy.
If you aren't watching ABC's stream as an Aussie you should be. On the one hand it has Antony Green, on the other hand Penny Wong absolutely kills it as a political commentator even as a partisan.
Gotta love Penny! She's great value anywhere. Her performances in Senate committees is something to behold. She gives great "Are you fucking kidding me?" face.
Gotta love Penny! She's great value anywhere. Her performances in Senate committees is something to behold. She gives great "Are you fucking kidding me?" face.
Antony Green has called Warringah for the independent, Zali Steggall. That would mean Tony Abbott is out. If this is true, it's not a moment too soon. Abbott has been a disruptive and negative...
Antony Green has called Warringah for the independent, Zali Steggall. That would mean Tony Abbott is out.
If this is true, it's not a moment too soon. Abbott has been a disruptive and negative influence in Australian politics for over a decade and, like any cancerous tumour, he needed to be cut out. As even some Liberal figures have said behind the scenes, their best outcome from today would be for the Coalition to win the election, and for Tony Abbott to lose his seat.
Abbott just gave his concession speech - and it was a lot more gracious than I would ever have expected. I did think it was a bit much of him to frame it as a victory speech for the Coalition,...
Abbott just gave his concession speech - and it was a lot more gracious than I would ever have expected.
I did think it was a bit much of him to frame it as a victory speech for the Coalition, when it's far too early to call.
I believe for his legacy and for his continuation as a public figure he is looking for a key golden parachute role in a Morrison government in a role where he needs to represent things with a...
I believe for his legacy and for his continuation as a public figure he is looking for a key golden parachute role in a Morrison government in a role where he needs to represent things with a little less partisanship like an ambassadorial or similar role.
Off topic... I considered doing this myself, but I'm not sure there are many people who are on Tildes and Australian and are politics nerds (I honestly thought I was the only one), so I assumed...
Figured tildes could use a discussion thread on this topic.
Off topic... I considered doing this myself, but I'm not sure there are many people who are on Tildes and Australian and are politics nerds (I honestly thought I was the only one), so I assumed there might not be enough traffic to justify a thread. I'd be happy to be proven wrong! Anyway, thanks for doing it.
I'm a fellow Aussie and try to follow politics as much as I can, I am glad this thread was made as I read far more than I comment on mostly because others have said what I would just far better...
I'm a fellow Aussie and try to follow politics as much as I can, I am glad this thread was made as I read far more than I comment on mostly because others have said what I would just far better than I could.
The early numbers are showing a possible Coalition victory. However, the AEC and Antony Green have made the point that about 4.7 million people voted in pre-polling and those pre-poll votes will...
The early numbers are showing a possible Coalition victory. However, the AEC and Antony Green have made the point that about 4.7 million people voted in pre-polling and those pre-poll votes will take longer to count.
It's quite possible that a lot of those people who voted early had already made up their minds, and weren't bothered to wait to see what was said in the campaign. That might indicate that those early voters are anti-Coalition. It's also possible that the people who voted today, and whose votes we've seen so far, are the more traditional voters - which is code for older, and therefore pro-Coalition (as polls repeatedly show the Coalition's support is stronger with older people and weaker with younger people).
Absolutely, with the polling trending towards a 50:50 split, earlier would have to have some weight to a labor boost. Though I am so biased on that I could just be grasping at straws.
Absolutely, with the polling trending towards a 50:50 split, earlier would have to have some weight to a labor boost.
Though I am so biased on that I could just be grasping at straws.
Look at the difference in the crowd reaction between Tony and Zali mentioning their opponent. Boos and hate from the right, 'hear hear' to respect from the moderates.
Look at the difference in the crowd reaction between Tony and Zali mentioning their opponent. Boos and hate from the right, 'hear hear' to respect from the moderates.
I noticed that myself. I thought it reflected very badly on Abbott's supporters. Abbott himself was trying to do the right thing and graciously congratulate his opponent, and his supporters showed...
I noticed that myself. I thought it reflected very badly on Abbott's supporters. Abbott himself was trying to do the right thing and graciously congratulate his opponent, and his supporters showed a very bad side to their characters.
Antony Green is now predicting a Coalition victory, after 50.5% of the votes have been counted. He says the only thing in doubt is whether they'll be a majority government or a minority...
Antony Green is now predicting a Coalition victory, after 50.5% of the votes have been counted. He says the only thing in doubt is whether they'll be a majority government or a minority government.
And now Barrie Cassidy is pouring water on the prediction, saying that negotiations with the crossbench to form government might not be easy for the Coalition.
Bah. Green calls it for Coalition, and I'm out. You can swap out your leader, deliver zero policies of substance good or bad, fill your ranks with corrupt people, and all it takes to continue government in this country is make deals with racists and whatever the hell Palmer is.
Education and research cuts will continue, funding will continue to shift from public to private schooling, public money and funding will continue to tip from the lower classes of society to the top, and with One Nation and UAP knowing they pushed the government to victory they can hold the axe over their head from now to the next election and push their racists and backwards policies.
There is one plus for those of us who enjoy a bit of schadenfreude.
The Coalition have been running their usual campaign on them being better economic managers than those Labor people who supposedly keep stuffing up the economy. I read an opinion piece today which pointed out that Australians keep voting Labor into government either just before or just after problems start, so most of Labor's supposed economic stuff-ups are not of their own making. And there's another economic problem coming soon. In fact, we're already seeing some of the early warning signs.
In that case, we can finally watch the Coalition preside over a weakening economy, and watch them undermine their own commentary that they're better economic managers than Labor. Maybe we can finally see that changing the state of the economy is outside of the Australian government's power, and Liberal has only appeared to be better economic managers because Labor has been unlucky enough to be in power during the bad times.
I had a reddit thread where I discussed this happening - I also think the recession will be a global economic meltdown of kinds. I'm really quite pessimistic about the 2020s.
I've noticed that in many countries, this is one of the first times where typically fiscally conservative governments will be in power during a slump. Austerity measures during a recession (which will inevitably happen in many of these countries) will NOT be popular, to say the least.
I'm Canadian, and I expect the CPC, our Conservative party, to win the federal election, and be completely unprepared for the economic mess they will have no choice but to catch halfway through their term. Back in the Harper days during the 2008 global recession, the Keynesians in the party probably saved their skin big time - but Canada suffered a lot, even if not as bad as the U.S. thanks to laws put in place well before Harper.
I think it will be fascinating to see how these governments maneuver a large fiscal crisis, and it could decide how politics shifts for a long time.
It's widely remarked that the Australian government's Keynesian tendencies during the GFC (Global Financial Crisis, as we call it) were what stopped us going into recession when just about everyone else around us went into one. Our Labor government of the time literally just handed free money to people to spend as they wished. They also invested in some infrastructure programs (which had the unwanted side effect of causing dodgy operators to enter those sectors, which led to some tradespeople's deaths - which the Coalition has never let anyone forget). We spent our way out of recession.
We don't have the money to do so now.
The Coalition are fond of reminding everyone that the only reason Labor was able to prevent recession here in Australia was by spending budget surpluses that they inherited from the previous Coalition government (the party in government changed only months before the GFC hit). But they still claim that Labor did the wrong thing.
However, the Coalition has now had nearly 6 continuous years back in government, and have not yet managed to get the budget back to surplus (although they're now saying it'll happen next year). They keep blaming Labor's spend-a-thon of a decade ago. But now they have no excuses. If we have another recession coming, and they can't prevent it, it's entirely on them: they've been in government for the past 6 years, and they'll be in government for the next 3 years. Anything that happens in the next 12 months is entirely on their watch, and they have nowhere to hide.
As you say, it will be fascinating to watch them deal with the forthcoming financial crisis.
I'll give credit to Harper where it's due. He allowed it to happen - he didn't capitulate to the fiscal conservative side of himself, and knew when to use Keynesian economics when he needed to. I don't agree with all of his policies, though some admittedly had some effect (I would question if there were better areas).
Certainly though, it's not solely thanks to the Liberals or anyone. It's in huge part thanks to Senators of all kinds, MP's of all kinds, etc.
There's a great quote of Harper even admitting to using Keynesian economic theory. It's one of my favourite clips.
Edit:
I really don't want to downplay Harper's role, but at the end of the day he's just the PM and head of party. He did have a top down approach to managing the party, but I think a lot of his fiscal wing acted appropriately. When I say Harper "allowed" this, I really do mean huge props for it. That's not something a lot of leaders would do - look at Trudeau and his staff with the SNC affair, for instance. I doubt there was much drama when push came to shove with the economic specialists from Harper's team telling him now was the time. Harper listened, and he did what was best for Canada - that's very big.
I'm no economist, but you could start by reading anything about the current and growing China-US trade war. That's already having economic repercussions around the world, and it has barely started.
I have a list, but I'm not sure you'd have access to them. A lot of them are through my University's portal, and I wouldn't know where to find accessible stuff.
I think I'm certainly overly pessimistic, and that you ought not listen to some crazy laywoman on the internet.
That being said -- I'm not the only one saying this. Most speakers I see talking about the next financial crisis will be telling you to watch China (which is exactly what I think, as well) and how their asset bubbles are forming, as well as watching student loan debt (ballooning like crazy, we all know that), and, of course, watch the regulations on banks.
Canada has extremely tough rules on banks thanks to the intelligence of our former governments (collectively). I think we will weather the storm fairly well. Depending on who is in power at the time, I think that will strongly affect who gets hit the hardest.
Prepare to tighten your belt -- if you don't have huge capital, you don't stand to lose much. If you have cash, hold on to it, wait FOR the crash, and then buy good stocks when they're low so you can make a profit off everyone else's misery. Saving, preparing to ride the stocks after the recession, may just get you into a better position afterwards than you were before.
Also: PROPERTY PROPERTY PROPERTY
I can PM you the reddit post I made, once reddit is back up and I'm awake, if you like.
While I'm a little worried about the influence of UAP (Australia's version of tea party, UKIP, trumpettes) in propping up the Libs via preferences, the fact Antony Green just called Tony as being out of a seat and effectively no longer a political character at any level has left me a bit giddy with joy.
If you aren't watching ABC's stream as an Aussie you should be. On the one hand it has Antony Green, on the other hand Penny Wong absolutely kills it as a political commentator even as a partisan.
Gotta love Penny! She's great value anywhere. Her performances in Senate committees is something to behold. She gives great "Are you fucking kidding me?" face.
Antony Green has called Warringah for the independent, Zali Steggall. That would mean Tony Abbott is out.
If this is true, it's not a moment too soon. Abbott has been a disruptive and negative influence in Australian politics for over a decade and, like any cancerous tumour, he needed to be cut out. As even some Liberal figures have said behind the scenes, their best outcome from today would be for the Coalition to win the election, and for Tony Abbott to lose his seat.
Abbott just gave his concession speech - and it was a lot more gracious than I would ever have expected.
I did think it was a bit much of him to frame it as a victory speech for the Coalition, when it's far too early to call.
I believe for his legacy and for his continuation as a public figure he is looking for a key golden parachute role in a Morrison government in a role where he needs to represent things with a little less partisanship like an ambassadorial or similar role.
Ambassador Abbott? God help us!
Could we send him to an Asian or Middle Eastern country? I'm sure he'd love that! ;)
Off topic... I considered doing this myself, but I'm not sure there are many people who are on Tildes and Australian and are politics nerds (I honestly thought I was the only one), so I assumed there might not be enough traffic to justify a thread. I'd be happy to be proven wrong! Anyway, thanks for doing it.
I'm a fellow Aussie and try to follow politics as much as I can, I am glad this thread was made as I read far more than I comment on mostly because others have said what I would just far better than I could.
I wonder if this means the end of Bill Shorten. At least the good news is Tony Abbot is finally gone.
He stepped down as Labor leader in his concession speech, just before you posted this comment.
The early numbers are showing a possible Coalition victory. However, the AEC and Antony Green have made the point that about 4.7 million people voted in pre-polling and those pre-poll votes will take longer to count.
It's quite possible that a lot of those people who voted early had already made up their minds, and weren't bothered to wait to see what was said in the campaign. That might indicate that those early voters are anti-Coalition. It's also possible that the people who voted today, and whose votes we've seen so far, are the more traditional voters - which is code for older, and therefore pro-Coalition (as polls repeatedly show the Coalition's support is stronger with older people and weaker with younger people).
So it's far too early to call a result yet.
Absolutely, with the polling trending towards a 50:50 split, earlier would have to have some weight to a labor boost.
Though I am so biased on that I could just be grasping at straws.
Look at the difference in the crowd reaction between Tony and Zali mentioning their opponent. Boos and hate from the right, 'hear hear' to respect from the moderates.
I noticed that myself. I thought it reflected very badly on Abbott's supporters. Abbott himself was trying to do the right thing and graciously congratulate his opponent, and his supporters showed a very bad side to their characters.
Antony Green is now predicting a Coalition victory, after 50.5% of the votes have been counted. He says the only thing in doubt is whether they'll be a majority government or a minority government.
And now Barrie Cassidy is pouring water on the prediction, saying that negotiations with the crossbench to form government might not be easy for the Coalition.