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  • Showing only topics in ~talk with the tag "economy". Back to normal view / Search all groups
    1. Do you think a recession is likely within the next 15 years? If so, what/who will cause it and why?

      I am not even remotely knowledgeable about economics and stocks so if any logic in this is flawed, please tell me why. If it happens (which seems likely but not a given) I think the most likely...

      I am not even remotely knowledgeable about economics and stocks so if any logic in this is flawed, please tell me why.

      If it happens (which seems likely but not a given) I think the most likely offenders would probably be companies like Uber and WeWork because they kept going with their current practices (mainly unsustainable and sometimes still unprofitable) to the point where venture capitalists decide it's too risky an investment to make and the stocks eventually crash in these companies and the whole market soon follows.

      20 votes
    2. Not many people seem concerned with a probable recession, how come?

      We are due for one anyway (11 years since the last one) yet I feel like the general sentiment is that the recent market drops are simply a temporary dip despite huge economic, political and...

      We are due for one anyway (11 years since the last one) yet I feel like the general sentiment is that the recent market drops are simply a temporary dip despite huge economic, political and geopolitical risks. What am I missing? Why isn't there more coverage about this? Am I looking in the wrong places?

      21 votes
    3. US jobs report - The numbers we do NOT talk about

      I almost posted this in ~news but wasn't really sure so feel free to move the post if I got it wrong. The new jobs report is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm I consistently...

      I almost posted this in ~news but wasn't really sure so feel free to move the post if I got it wrong.

      The new jobs report is out:
      https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

      I consistently feel like the media just runs with the unemployment rate and ignores the other very important numbers. I think that the economy isn't really "booming" for ordinary Americans and I think that the numbers in the job report that aren't widely talked about are eye-opening.

      These numbers used to be talked about a LOT more immediately after the 2008 recessions and during the OWS protests.

      To be clear, I'm happy the stock market is up but I don't think it's "trickling" down all that much.

      Some examples:

      Long-term unemployed are not finding work:

      The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.4 million over the month; these individuals accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

      There are ~4.5 million people who are working part-time who want to work full time, and that number is rapidly growing with ~250,000 added since last quarter:

      The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 263,000 to 4.6 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

      More than 1.5 million American's gave up looking for work:

      In September, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

      19 votes