To be honest, I tend to dismiss most "China is going to have major issues in the next X years because of Y" arguments as Westerner cope. We've been anticipating collapse for basically my entire...
To be honest, I tend to dismiss most "China is going to have major issues in the next X years because of Y" arguments as Westerner cope. We've been anticipating collapse for basically my entire adulthood and it never seems to happen in spite of everything I take for granted about political science and sociology.
But on this front I think there is something to the argument. I struggle to see how you can have an LLM as good as what we have in the US based on heavily censored training data.
On the other hand, I also wonder how much it matters. Most of what ChatGPT is replacing is the cheap, service labor that America already can't outsource. So China was never going to have that be a growth engine for them. And I don't know how much it will really hobble productivity to not have Notion automatically create template for you. Like yes it's less good for research in specifically politically contentious topics. But how much do those actually matter from a geopolitics standpoint? Will it prevent you from being able to look up how to build an engine or operate a lathe? I don't know if anyone cares about censoring that sort of thing.
I think I meant more that it's not replacing a lot of value additive stuff, more like spamming at scale which isn't something any economy needs to care about cultivating. It might make some office...
I think I meant more that it's not replacing a lot of value additive stuff, more like spamming at scale which isn't something any economy needs to care about cultivating. It might make some office workers more efficient and bring back some of the quality of life that has been lost now that personal secretaries and assistants are rarer. But I'm of the "Bullshit Jobs" school of thought where I think most of that office work is value neutral or even value destroying in aggregate.
To be honest, I tend to dismiss most "China is going to have major issues in the next X years because of Y" arguments as Westerner cope. We've been anticipating collapse for basically my entire adulthood and it never seems to happen in spite of everything I take for granted about political science and sociology.
But on this front I think there is something to the argument. I struggle to see how you can have an LLM as good as what we have in the US based on heavily censored training data.
On the other hand, I also wonder how much it matters. Most of what ChatGPT is replacing is the cheap, service labor that America already can't outsource. So China was never going to have that be a growth engine for them. And I don't know how much it will really hobble productivity to not have Notion automatically create template for you. Like yes it's less good for research in specifically politically contentious topics. But how much do those actually matter from a geopolitics standpoint? Will it prevent you from being able to look up how to build an engine or operate a lathe? I don't know if anyone cares about censoring that sort of thing.
I don't understand what you mean, can you elaborate please? ChatGPT does replace a lot of outsourced labor.
I think I meant more that it's not replacing a lot of value additive stuff, more like spamming at scale which isn't something any economy needs to care about cultivating. It might make some office workers more efficient and bring back some of the quality of life that has been lost now that personal secretaries and assistants are rarer. But I'm of the "Bullshit Jobs" school of thought where I think most of that office work is value neutral or even value destroying in aggregate.