7 votes

On the path to delivering next generation UK weather forecasts

2 comments

  1. Tardigrade
    Link
    An interesting look into the next generation of machine learning models used in UK weather forecasting. I like the pun name of FastNet (also a forecast zone on the shopping forecast). Meta: unsure...

    An interesting look into the next generation of machine learning models used in UK weather forecasting. I like the pun name of FastNet (also a forecast zone on the shopping forecast).

    Meta: unsure if this is tech or science

    4 votes
  2. tauon
    Link
    Interesting read. (emphasis mine) I do wonder if recalibrating data points etc. will be enough for the models to “pick up” on climate change fully. Can that possibly capture irregularities, new...

    Interesting read.

    Looking to the future, we do not anticipate the need for well-established physics-based simulation approaches to end any time soon.

    […]

    For example, physics-based models provide the critical physical-process based insight needed to understand performance and build trust in weather prediction. They are also important when considering events that are outside the data that has been used to train AI models, and they provide the training data used to create AI models (new, recalibrated datasets will be needed as our climate changes).

    (emphasis mine)

    I do wonder if recalibrating data points etc. will be enough for the models to “pick up” on climate change fully. Can that possibly capture irregularities, new extremes in all directions of hot, cold, and stormy, or even something huge like the potential collapse of transatlantic warm water transport (key word is the AMOC – see [1], [2])? Maybe that is yet to be found out… But as long as there’s still the effort made of keeping physics-based models around that work, it should probably be an achievable feat – and will help us in our actual physical understanding of the weather process!

    2 votes