Jordan117's recent activity
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Comment on So what do political parties spend all that fundraised money on? in ~talk
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
Jordan117 Link ParentIt's how the DNC has worked since 2016. First ballot, only the regular delegates vote. If they can't reach a majority for one candidate, superdelegates come into play for subsequent ballots.It's how the DNC has worked since 2016. First ballot, only the regular delegates vote. If they can't reach a majority for one candidate, superdelegates come into play for subsequent ballots.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
Jordan117 Link ParentAny open convention would be voted by the regular delegates from around the country first, who are primarily loyal to Biden and would likely give it to Harris on the first ballot. Superdelegates...Any open convention would be voted by the regular delegates from around the country first, who are primarily loyal to Biden and would likely give it to Harris on the first ballot. Superdelegates only come into play on later ballots if there's no majority.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
Jordan117 Link ParentHe's down by maybe 2 points at best nationally, but thanks to the structure of the electoral college he needs to be ahead by around 2-3 points to have even odds of winning. Clinton won by 2% but...He's down by maybe 2 points at best nationally, but thanks to the structure of the electoral college he needs to be ahead by around 2-3 points to have even odds of winning. Clinton won by 2% but lost the EC decisively, while Biden won by 4.5% and only barely won the EC by a few tens of thousands of votes in the swing states. So if he's behind a few points in the popular vote nationally, or even tied, that leads to an easy Trump win, which is born out by all the state polling showing him 5+ points behind in every battleground.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
Jordan117 Link ParentA significant number of his voters were more anti-Clinton than pro-Sanders, and Clinton avoided playing dirty with him to avoid alienating his base. If he'd gotten the nomination, the GOP in...A significant number of his voters were more anti-Clinton than pro-Sanders, and Clinton avoided playing dirty with him to avoid alienating his base. If he'd gotten the nomination, the GOP in partnership with the corporate media would have launched a withering assault on all his untested vulnerabilities -- the "rape essay", his honeymoon in the USSR, the "deadbeat dad that never worked a real job" narrative, his wife's college financial affairs, video of him saying M4A would raise taxes, his self-identified socialism, etc., etc., etc. He would have been the American version of Jeremy Corbyn. And the failure of his "political revolution" to manifest in the primaries in 2016 and 2020 suggest there would not have been any real groundswell of support had he been the nominee.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden reportedly more open to calls for him to step aside as candidate in ~news
Jordan117 Link ParentBiden might "only" be 2-5 points behind (a sizeable gap in this polarized era), but he's been down that much consistently, for a year, and even the most seismic events have barely moved the...Biden might "only" be 2-5 points behind (a sizeable gap in this polarized era), but he's been down that much consistently, for a year, and even the most seismic events have barely moved the needle. Polling is clear that both candidates are deeply unpopular, in Biden's case primarily because of his age and acuity concerns. You can't fix that, and it speaks directly to his ability to campaign and do the job. And there's zero indication Biden or his team have what it takes to turn that around.
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Comment on US appeals court blocks all of Joe Biden's SAVE student debt relief plan in ~finance
Jordan117 Link ParentRepublican-appointed judges, to be precise. The 8th Circuit has six Bush Sr./Jr. judges, four Trump judges, and just one Obama judge.Republican-appointed judges, to be precise. The 8th Circuit has six Bush Sr./Jr. judges, four Trump judges, and just one Obama judge.
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Comment on After Joe Biden's debate performance, the US presidential race is unchanged in ~misc
Jordan117 Link ParentHarris would have access to the Biden war chest, has already been elected nationally on the same ticket as Biden by 80 million voters, and as the VP is the naturally legitimate successor if Biden...Harris would have access to the Biden war chest, has already been elected nationally on the same ticket as Biden by 80 million voters, and as the VP is the naturally legitimate successor if Biden drops out. She'd also eliminate the largest weakness with Biden (age) and turn that criticism squarely back on Trump.
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Comment on Joe Biden's path to US re-election has all but vanished (gifted link) in ~misc
Jordan117 Link ParentThe current structure of the electoral college means Biden must win the popular vote by several points to have better than even odds of winning. Clinton, for example, won 48%-46% but Trump still...The current structure of the electoral college means Biden must win the popular vote by several points to have better than even odds of winning. Clinton, for example, won 48%-46% but Trump still got over 300 EVs.
If Trump is winning the popular vote at all, or even tied, he's winning the election easily.
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Comment on The most profound cosmic horror or weird lit stories you've read that are not Lovecraft or Ligotti in ~books
Jordan117 LinkHouse of Leaves by Mark Z. Danielewski really nails the whole "physically impossible abstract horror dropped into mundane suburban life and explored as if it were a documentary" thing. My one...House of Leaves by Mark Z. Danielewski really nails the whole "physically impossible abstract horror dropped into mundane suburban life and explored as if it were a documentary" thing. My one caveat is that the book is a multilayered blend of different stories, and the core narrative about the Navidson Record is the only part that really scratches that itch for me. There are other plotlines, about the young punk that finds and tries to piece together the book, the mysterious man who wrote it, plus copious meandering footnotes, but when rereading I tend to skip those sections.
As for cosmic horror, Peter Watts' Blindsight is perfect for your first passage. It's a very hard SF novel by a marine biologist about first contact with an alien species, who are not only radically different biologically but also cognitively. I won't spill the details but it definitely makes some unsettling arguments about the nature of consciousness and life itself, especially disturbing since so much of it is based on real neuroscience about the weirdness of the human mind. You can read it free on his website -- it's easily my favorite SF novel.
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Comment on After a shaky debate performance top US Democrats talk about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket in ~misc
Jordan117 Link ParentShe definitely had the best odds of bridging the gap between centrist and progressive Democrats. Personally, I blame Sanders for her fall -- she hit her peak in polling and tied with Biden after...She definitely had the best odds of bridging the gap between centrist and progressive Democrats. Personally, I blame Sanders for her fall -- she hit her peak in polling and tied with Biden after he had his heart attack, which would have been a logical moment for him to gracefully withdraw for a face-saving reason and vocally back her in order to unite the left while the moderates were still divided. Instead he stayed in, which gave tacit permission to his angrier supporters to turn on her (supercharged by the "women can't win" thing, which was a complete mess for both of them). I say all this as somebody who supported Sanders in 2016 (and in hindsight, I think Trump would have beaten both of them).
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Comment on After a shaky debate performance top US Democrats talk about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket in ~misc
Jordan117 Link ParentKlein was a vocal supporter of replacing Biden months ago (though he did walk it back after the State of the Union). Not a huge surprise there.Klein was a vocal supporter of replacing Biden months ago (though he did walk it back after the State of the Union). Not a huge surprise there.
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Comment on The US Supreme Court weakens federal regulators, overturning decades-old Chevron decision in ~misc
Jordan117 LinkThis is one of those rulings that sounds boring and arcane and will be overlooked by 95% of voters, but will have enormous and far-reaching effects on basically every aspect of American life...This is one of those rulings that sounds boring and arcane and will be overlooked by 95% of voters, but will have enormous and far-reaching effects on basically every aspect of American life long-term. Not immediately, as Roberts took the fig-leaf step of nominally shielding existing Chevron-based decisions from being overturned at once. But all federal agencies are now essentially hamstrung from fully enforcing health and safety regulations, and writing any effective new ones will be basically impossible, even if Congress weren't terminally gridlocked. Meanwhile, existing standards will be vulnerable to whatever right-wing jurists wish to overturn precedent (so, all of them).
This is an unmitigated disaster.
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Comment on After a shaky debate performance top US Democrats talk about replacing Joe Biden on the ticket in ~misc
Jordan117 LinkI'd almost forgotten about it, but in retrospect this reminded me a lot of the 2022 Oz-Fetterman debate for the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race. It was a similar dynamic: on one side you had Dr....I'd almost forgotten about it, but in retrospect this reminded me a lot of the 2022 Oz-Fetterman debate for the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race. It was a similar dynamic: on one side you had Dr. Oz, a glib, smooth-talking reality TV bullshitter, and on the other you had Fetterman, an experienced, populist reformer hobbled by serious health concerns (a stroke and attendant brain damage, in his case). For months leading up to the debate Fetterman's team kept him largely out of the spotlight and put on a brave face about how well he was recovering, but when the time came his performance was absolutely abysmal -- he was slurring words, speaking incoherently, and generally sounding like a person with brain damage. He knew his stuff and was clearly the better candidate on paper, but the optics were cringeworthily terrible.
Flash forward to election day, and Fetterman won by nearly 5%.
It's not entirely a 1:1 comparison, given the difference between midterm and general electorates, Trump's cultlike base, and the dynamics of a presidential vs. senatorial contest. But it does show that even an awful debate performance that magnifies a candidate's most glaring flaw does not guarantee a loss.
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Comment on Voters trust Donald Trump over Joe Biden to defend against threats to US democracy despite not thinking Trump will accept the results of the election if he loses in ~misc
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Comment on Voters trust Donald Trump over Joe Biden to defend against threats to US democracy despite not thinking Trump will accept the results of the election if he loses in ~misc
Jordan117 Link ParentThe voters in that sample are definitely beyond saving though. You can't really square a double-digit plurality saying they trust Trump more to protect democracy while 75%+ of that same sample...The voters in that sample are definitely beyond saving though. You can't really square a double-digit plurality saying they trust Trump more to protect democracy while 75%+ of that same sample says he won't accept the results of the election if he loses. (And it's not just a "he didn't lose, it's rigged!" thing when nearly half also say he'd try to be a dictator on day one).
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Comment on How do you feel about it/its pronouns? in ~lgbt
Jordan117 Link ParentTo be clear, I'm not policing or judging people who prefer it, just saying that I'd feel viscerally uncomfortable using it myself.To be clear, I'm not policing or judging people who prefer it, just saying that I'd feel viscerally uncomfortable using it myself.
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Comment on Squabblr is now a free speech platform in ~tech
Jordan117 Link ParentThey're kind of bound up together -- the API changes also impacted mod tooling and third-party services, and Reddit Inc. retaliated against protesting mods in an unprecedentedly disrespectful way....They're kind of bound up together -- the API changes also impacted mod tooling and third-party services, and Reddit Inc. retaliated against protesting mods in an unprecedentedly disrespectful way.
Not everybody left for these reasons, but on the whole the type of person offended by the API fiasco would likely not be the type to appreciate a service abandoning moderation and giving free reign to Nazis and transphobes.
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Comment on How do you feel about it/its pronouns? in ~lgbt
Jordan117 (edited )Link ParentIt's not exactly the same as slurs, obvs, but "it" as a pronoun for people has a very strong history of being used to say incredibly awful things -- "you're less than human, you're a thing not a...It's not exactly the same as slurs, obvs, but "it" as a pronoun for people has a very strong history of being used to say incredibly awful things -- "you're less than human, you're a thing not a person," etc. Kind of like how "boy" can be familial or used as a term of endearment, but it turns condescending and racist when used by a white man to refer to a black man. Context matters, and using "it" for people echoes a whole lot of ugly, dehumanizing hate, even if it's a perfectly normal word most of the time.
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Comment on Squabblr is now a free speech platform in ~tech
Jordan117 Link ParentMore to the point, you don't build up a userbase of people who were so disgusted by a previous platform's disregard for moderation that they left it.... only to tell those people that your new...More to the point, you don't build up a userbase of people who were so disgusted by a previous platform's disregard for moderation that they left it.... only to tell those people that your new platform will have minimal moderation and that protecting LGBT rights is an unwanted "wedge issue."
Advertising, field offices, staff on the ground, pollsters, lawyers, merchandise, flyers, mailers, web hosting, security...
It's basically a regional or nationwide advertising campaign with concert tour logistics and a network of offices and staff to make it all go.