stu2b50's recent activity
-
Comment on Looking for advice: How do I find out what stocks to invest into? in ~finance
-
Comment on Advice on new PC build in ~comp
stu2b50 Link ParentDoesn't seem to be that big of a deal. Would having 16 vs 32 gb of ram make a big difference for gamers? Probably not? I'm sure it may matter for some benchmark, but in practice just lower some...imagine if I could have doubled my memory by waiting 6 months.
Doesn't seem to be that big of a deal. Would having 16 vs 32 gb of ram make a big difference for gamers? Probably not? I'm sure it may matter for some benchmark, but in practice just lower some texture settings and move on.
And moreover, how do you weigh saving some $200 against not having a computer for 6 months? A gaming computer is something you buy to enjoy, not enjoying it is a price in it and of itself.
Just buy what you can at the current time, play your games and don't worry about it. It's not worth playing stock simulator for your entertainment device.
-
Comment on Looking for advice: How do I find out what stocks to invest into? in ~finance
stu2b50 Link ParentThe thing is that everyone else in the market also knows this. It’s not exactly hidden knowledge. And so this factor is already built into the price of large blue chips in the US, in particular...My reasoning is that these companies are treated as "too big to fail" and will be bailed out by the government if things get too bad.
The thing is that everyone else in the market also knows this. It’s not exactly hidden knowledge. And so this factor is already built into the price of large blue chips in the US, in particular ones related to critical infrastructure.
The benchmark isn’t if it will go up at some point. It’s, will it beat the SP500? Because if not, that difference is the amount of money you lost in opportunity cost. It’s not enough for an investment to make money - if it can’t beat an index fund’s own gains, it’s not worth it.
-
Comment on Looking for advice: How do I find out what stocks to invest into? in ~finance
stu2b50 LinkYou don’t. Pick large market ETFs. There’s no point in picking individual winners or losers as a retail investor. Instead, invest in every company at once. If you want to stick to European...You don’t. Pick large market ETFs. There’s no point in picking individual winners or losers as a retail investor. Instead, invest in every company at once.
If you want to stick to European markets, VGK is fine. Although I know most Europeans own US ETFs like VOO and VTI as well.
-
Comment on Advice on new PC build in ~comp
stu2b50 Link ParentI don’t think 2k vs 4k makes a difference for gaming, but it is very noticeable when using the same monitor for productivity. Text is noticeably sharper and better on a 4k monitor. Tbh I prefer 5k...I don’t think 2k vs 4k makes a difference for gaming, but it is very noticeable when using the same monitor for productivity. Text is noticeably sharper and better on a 4k monitor. Tbh I prefer 5k monitors, as even 4k when stretched to a screen over 27 inches becomes fairly low dpi. In that respect, Apple’s retina DPI requirement is a useful benchmark.
It feels bad when your phone has a sharper and higher DPI screen than your primary monitor.
-
Comment on Advice on new PC build in ~comp
stu2b50 Link ParentThe issue is less of the sticks and more of supported CPUs/mobos. They would have to use a previous gen CPU, and not only are those rare now, but IMO it's not worth saving the money for a worse...You could probably get away comfortably with 32gb of ddr4 instead of ddr5. If you can find available sticks.
The issue is less of the sticks and more of supported CPUs/mobos. They would have to use a previous gen CPU, and not only are those rare now, but IMO it's not worth saving the money for a worse processor.
-
Comment on What can be done about Linux being slopified? in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentThere’s a tendency for people to have their cake and eat it when describing threatening things they don’t like. AI is both a grievous threat to human employment and is also useless slop...There’s a tendency for people to have their cake and eat it when describing threatening things they don’t like. AI is both a grievous threat to human employment and is also useless slop generators. XYZ politician will both destroy everything if elected and also super stupid.
It’s causes some logical contradictions but I think people just prefer when someone or something bad is just bad in every way.
-
Comment on Advice on new PC build in ~comp
stu2b50 LinkSeems fine. Honestly just buy the best computer you can get for your budget and leave it at that. Some people get really neurotic about specs but it just doesn’t really matter. Same on prices: who...Seems fine. Honestly just buy the best computer you can get for your budget and leave it at that. Some people get really neurotic about specs but it just doesn’t really matter. Same on prices: who knows if it’ll go up or down, and it doesn’t really matter that much anyway.
-
Comment on How A24 spurred a meme craze and got the many to watch ‘You Can See Everything’: documentary opens to $15m milestone in ~movies
stu2b50 LinkA24's been on a good run this year. They've always had a hit a year or so, with Hereditary and EEAAO being the standouts, but they really have had 3 movies this year that have hit mainstream, with...A24's been on a good run this year. They've always had a hit a year or so, with Hereditary and EEAAO being the standouts, but they really have had 3 movies this year that have hit mainstream, with backrooms, primetime, and this.
-
Comment on Grand Theft Auto VI | Launch trailer in ~games
stu2b50 Link ParentThe pricing of everything is determined by the 2nd derivative of revenue and cost, which are themselves determined by supply and demand. The relation to craftmanship and quality exists insofar as...Pricing, in most industries, is (usually**) determined by some tangible metrics such as quality, craftsmanship, material cost, innovation, use, etc.
The pricing of everything is determined by the 2nd derivative of revenue and cost, which are themselves determined by supply and demand.
The relation to craftmanship and quality exists insofar as those things can heighten demand, but said relation is not guaranteed by any means.
Based on apparent demand I have no doubts that GTA 6's pricing is fine, but EA too can price their games however they wish, and if they are wrong on their estimates of demand, then they are "punished" by making less money than they otherwise would have. There's no problems.
-
Comment on iPhone Duo sells out immediately, now backordered until next year in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentI mean that’s a full cycle, so 12 months. 8 million in 2 months ain’t bad.I mean that’s a full cycle, so 12 months. 8 million in 2 months ain’t bad.
-
Comment on Anthropic says revenue jumped 45% to $16.8 billion in third quarter in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentIt doesn’t sound like it. ChatGPT launched in the end of 2022 and really the nvidia valuation skyrocketed occurred more towards the end of 2023. So it’s been a little over 2 years. If you’ve been...it's now 2016 and I can finally start contributing more than the bare minimum to get match. So yes, almost all of my significant contributions have been during the rise of the NVIDIA bubble fueled by crypto and AI.
It doesn’t sound like it. ChatGPT launched in the end of 2022 and really the nvidia valuation skyrocketed occurred more towards the end of 2023. So it’s been a little over 2 years.
If you’ve been investing since 2016 then you’ve been investing in a “normal” market for 7-8 years and a bubble for 2 years.
-
Comment on Anthropic says revenue jumped 45% to $16.8 billion in third quarter in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentYou've only been contributing in the last 2-3 years? I mean, that's the importance of long time horizons. A hypothetical 401k that has been dollar-cost average invested into over 20 years has...The problem being, that the vast majority of my contributions come during bubble rises.
You've only been contributing in the last 2-3 years? I mean, that's the importance of long time horizons. A hypothetical 401k that has been dollar-cost average invested into over 20 years has ridden its ups and its downs and is in a very good state averageout.
It's not a pitfall, it's just part of life. Trying to predict the bubble on your own is just a recipe for disaster. Just DCA, and let time do its thing.
-
Comment on Anthropic says revenue jumped 45% to $16.8 billion in third quarter in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentThat's kind of the point, though. The market has gained TREMENDOUSLY from the AI bubble. The average American 401k has went up significantly because they had exposure to companies like Nvidia...Because I think we're very close to peak NVIDIA, and the collateral damage, even though I do genuinely doubt 90% of full market, is likely to be at least 30% overall, and much higher in tech
That's kind of the point, though. The market has gained TREMENDOUSLY from the AI bubble. The average American 401k has went up significantly because they had exposure to companies like Nvidia 5x-ing their valuations.
So it will go down when the bubble pops. But you can't measure the loss from the top down. You have to measure it from the start of the bubble to the end of the bubble.
Bubbles happen, they happen all the time in the end. For something like retirement investments, just don't think about it that much. Keep investing into diversified assets, and trust the average.
-
Comment on Anthropic says revenue jumped 45% to $16.8 billion in third quarter in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentNo, you actually can’t buy stocks from an IPO. Only institutional investors are allowed to buy IPO stocks. Some brokerages let you “buy” IPOs but what’s actually happening is that the brokerage is...No, you actually can’t buy stocks from an IPO. Only institutional investors are allowed to buy IPO stocks. Some brokerages let you “buy” IPOs but what’s actually happening is that the brokerage is buying the stock as an institutional investor and then you buy an IOU from them.
Either way your average 401k will have no direct exposure to either company at IPO, and would only get exposure more than a year later if they sustain their market caps. But even then, the only way your 401k goes down by 90% would be if your 401k is entirely OpenAI equity. Which would be on you tbh. Index funds operate on weights, the proportion of an SP500 ETF that would own either company, assuming they even make it to the SP500, would be very small.
Also you’re definitely not getting in at the top. Remember that the reason why the stock market has been doing well is because of the (alleged) AI bubble. You have indirect exposure to the benefits of AI valuations through the Mag7.
-
Comment on Anthropic says revenue jumped 45% to $16.8 billion in third quarter in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentThat’s the wrong way to look at it. Your 401k would inflate by $3,700 billion and then deflate by $3,700 billion. If you look at the SP500 over the dot com bubble, it more or less was on the...and when the bubble pops and the actual valuation of $300 billion between the both of them, wiping out $3,700 billion of our 401ks.
That’s the wrong way to look at it. Your 401k would inflate by $3,700 billion and then deflate by $3,700 billion.
If you look at the SP500 over the dot com bubble, it more or less was on the trajectory it was on before the bubble by 2004. Things go up, things go down.
-
Comment on iPhone Duo sells out immediately, now backordered until next year in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentThat actually reminds me, since there were some Z fold numbers there, with Apple reportedly having 8 million units ready for 2026 (link, that would be in the span of less than an hour they've...That actually reminds me, since there were some Z fold numbers there, with Apple reportedly having 8 million units ready for 2026 (link, that would be in the span of less than an hour they've already outsold the entire Galaxy Z Fold 8 line.
It's also a minimum floor of $16 billion in sales (in practice, it will be higher, since some of the iphone sold will have memory upgrades pushing the price over $2k).
-
iPhone Duo sells out immediately, now backordered until next year
37 votes -
Comment on The state of AI video in ~tech
stu2b50 LinkVideo will be perfectly admissable in court. Court isn't some robotic affair, it's human driven, in the end. It's not like a Phoenix Wright game where evidence is evidence, and it's definitely...How can we admit video evidence into a court of law, perhaps unless it's played directly off a recording device that's technologically incapable of having video uploaded to it?
Video will be perfectly admissable in court. Court isn't some robotic affair, it's human driven, in the end. It's not like a Phoenix Wright game where evidence is evidence, and it's definitely true.
The defense will be able to throw doubt on any evidence the prosecution brings up. They can bring in expert witnesses who can identify AI-like artifacts. They can simply appeal to the fact that AI video is possible. They can make their own AI video to prove that it's possible to fabricate such evidence. Remember, the onus is on the prosecution to prove their case, the defense just needs to cast doubt.
Nor do cases rest on single points of evidence. It's often said that circumstantial evidence isn't evidence, but it is. Often cases are built on many intersecting pieces of circumstantial evidence. Rarely do you have direct evidence of anything.
Nor is evidence isolated. If there's other people in the video, you can bring them in as witnesses. Together, a video and a witness testimony is stronger than either alone, since human memory is famously fallible.
-
Comment on I deliberately bet like a problem gambler. DraftKings made me a VIP. in ~tech
stu2b50 Link ParentThe mafia is as black as it gets. Don't mistake the Godfather for reality. It's like saying that pirates or vikings were greyer-than-black lol. Thiefs, robbers, rapists in the end, even if Depp...Agreed, but I feel like the underlying catalyst for the mafia's greyer-than-black nature was necessity.
The mafia is as black as it gets. Don't mistake the Godfather for reality. It's like saying that pirates or vikings were greyer-than-black lol. Thiefs, robbers, rapists in the end, even if Depp made a fun Jack Sparrow.
Ok, I feel like people are maybe catastrophizing it a bit too much. One of the reasons the stock market is not a casino is that it's actually not zero sum, it's positive sum. And as a result, people can buy individual stocks and make money - it's like a game of roulettes where on average everyone makes money.
The reason that ETFs are recommended is less extreme than "you'll lose all your money to jane street". The benchmark is a whole market ETF. If you can't exceed the gains of the whole market ETF, then what's even the point? You could have made more money with less time.
But the average edge ETFs have over someone that invests in blue chip stocks is not so high as for it to be impossible just based on luck. OP made some money, mostly by luck. It's like blackjack, if we use "beating the ETF" as the baseline (since blackjack is a zero sum game, and as we've established, the stock market is a positive sum game) - the edge the house has on is between 3-5%, so you can win plenty of times in blackjack, it's just on a long time horizon you lose.
You should still get ETFs, but it's not like you're guaranteed to lose all your money if you don't. In fact, it's very possible someone beats the SP500 in their entire lifetime just by happenchance. The edge is small enough that this is possible.
Compare that with a commodities market like forex or oil futures or something. Now THAT is a zero sum game. Do not enter, this is not a place of honor. In forex, you're competing against the central banks of entire nation states - that's not a battle you're going to win.