TMarkos's recent activity
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Comment on What games have you been playing, and what's your opinion on them? in ~games
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Comment on Technicolor's last frame: the collapse and liquidation of a Hollywood legend in ~movies
TMarkos Link ParentThe relevant bit seems to be: Technicolor's strategy did not account for the possibility of the global movie industry taking the hits it did with COVID, and it did not account for the overall...The relevant bit seems to be:
During the 2000s and 2010s, under the ownership of French conglomerate Thomson Multimedia SA, the company had a growth strategy that hinged on big acquisitions, including the 2004 purchase of MPC—a visual effects company in London—for about $100 million and a 2015 deal for the Mill, a VFX studio in London mainly serving the advertising industry, valued at nearly $300 million. (In 2010, parent company Thomson changed its name to Technicolor SA to match that of its big subsidiary.) As the company grew, its debt load ballooned, but for a long time its revenue grew faster. “There was a virtuous circle to being bigger,” Jurow says, “until it reached an upper bound.”
Technicolor's strategy did not account for the possibility of the global movie industry taking the hits it did with COVID, and it did not account for the overall financial shock that occurred simultaneously. This strikes me as a pretty reasonable blindside by an outside context problem. There is an opportunity cost in business if you bother to hedge against a dinosaur-killer event, since 1) that may never happen and 2) if it does, the "necessary" amount of prep is arbitrary and potentially impossible. In this case it's quite possible that "merely reasonable" preparation for lean times would not have changed the outcome much, since many other movie-adjacent entities did the same and went under anyway.
I think it's hard to fault them for never addressing the question of what to do if the entire distribution market changed drastically and profits dropped industry-wide. If I'm seeking an analogy it might be the megafauna of the late Pleistocene; despite being well-adapted and dominant in their niche, they were unable to account for the factor of some upstart ape creatures thinking they looked tasty, and vanished despite all the advantages they had accrued. Sometimes one wildcard is all it takes.
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Comment on Six months into tariffs, US businesses have no idea how to price anything in ~finance
TMarkos LinkThere's a lot of friction between suppliers and buyers because they're resisting pricing in the tariffs in bidding - they don't want to be the first to acknowledge the cost because it would make...There's a lot of friction between suppliers and buyers because they're resisting pricing in the tariffs in bidding - they don't want to be the first to acknowledge the cost because it would make them uncompetitive if the others in a bid did not do the same. Then they try to sneak language into contracts that allows them to pass on whatever the tariff price is to the buyer, although I've seen companies fudge that. One supplier just started tacking on a rather steep flat fee to every single order, others wait until they actually incur the tariff. The end result is the same, though - a purchase order is issued that does not match the invoiced price. It's a fairly brazen technique but I imagine the sellers are feeling a bit trapped by circumstance.
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Comment on What are your favorite and least favorite airports? in ~transport
TMarkos Link ParentHah, I was flying American so I think I had a better experience. Always nicer to fly the hub airline!Hah, I was flying American so I think I had a better experience. Always nicer to fly the hub airline!
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Comment on What are your favorite and least favorite airports? in ~transport
TMarkos Link ParentYou can't see my complaint because you live in the area, lol. The problem is not getting in and out of DCA if you are already right next to it, the problem is in getting anywhere near DCA....You can't see my complaint because you live in the area, lol. The problem is not getting in and out of DCA if you are already right next to it, the problem is in getting anywhere near DCA. Washington DC traffic is some of the worst in the country, and it can take literal hours of extra time to exit the morass if you time it wrong. If I was able to hop the metro in or whatever I'd probably love it too.
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Comment on What are your favorite and least favorite airports? in ~transport
TMarkos LinkThey fixed this in 2023, apparently, but Kansas City Missouri had the worst airport I've ever had the displeasure of flying through. They had it set up so there were multiple secured areas that...They fixed this in 2023, apparently, but Kansas City Missouri had the worst airport I've ever had the displeasure of flying through. They had it set up so there were multiple secured areas that only had a handful of gates in each, and so once you went through you were stuck in a relatively small area with no services aside from maybe a food cart. It felt like they designed it pre-9/11 when you could just waltz in and out of security as you pleased, and then never revised it. Haven't visited the new terminal but it cannot be worse than the old setup.
I flew out of DCA (Reagan) recently and the airport itself is quite nice but getting there is horrible.
I know a lot of people have bad experiences with Denver but I've never found the airport to be anything but pleasant. Good food options, spacious, relatively efficient train service between the concourses. Giant blue demon horse guarding the entry. Pretty much perfect.
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Comment on How many remakes have ever actually lived up to or surpassed the original? in ~movies
TMarkos LinkThey didn't hold much to the original but technically The Mummy (1999) is a remake. That one is undeniably better than the OG.They didn't hold much to the original but technically The Mummy (1999) is a remake. That one is undeniably better than the OG.
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Comment on What games have you been playing, and what's your opinion on them? in ~games
TMarkos LinkI've been thoroughly enjoying Vintage Story. I had written this off a few times as a minecraft clone or whatever, and admittedly it kind of is that, but it is an extremely well-engineered and...I've been thoroughly enjoying Vintage Story. I had written this off a few times as a minecraft clone or whatever, and admittedly it kind of is that, but it is an extremely well-engineered and immersive survival simulator with its own unique vision for what the world is and what the role of the player should be in that world. Highly recommend it to anyone that is into the FtB minecraft modpacks or who enjoys games that model effort in crafting.
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Comment on The state of American men is — not so good in ~life.men
TMarkos Link ParentThe metric of men who "get to be the fathers they want to be" is just a proxy for financial security, so I'm not surprised everyone is happier when Dad has options vs having to pick up two shifts.The metric of men who "get to be the fathers they want to be" is just a proxy for financial security, so I'm not surprised everyone is happier when Dad has options vs having to pick up two shifts.
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Comment on Fist of the North Star | Teaser trailer in ~anime
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Comment on What's the most feasible way to exit modern society? in ~talk
TMarkos LinkI think @Well_known_bear has said a lot of what I would have said very well. In particular I think you should focus on the second bullet under the first item, the "harm from the second arrow." By...I think @Well_known_bear has said a lot of what I would have said very well. In particular I think you should focus on the second bullet under the first item, the "harm from the second arrow." By fixating on harms that have not yet materialized and may not ever happen in the way that you fear, you are experiencing distress that is not necessary for you to experience in the moment.
I would encourage you to remove your focus from AI, inasmuch as it is possible, and consider the general questions of:
- If I find myself unable to work in my chosen field, what do I want to do?
- What makes me happy?
To the extent that you must experience stress related to harms that may appear but are not yet present (which I'm sure has its own word in German to describe such a phenomenon) you should focus on the practical consideration of what an alternate career path might look like if you are unhappy in your field. This might be for a variety of reasons, only some of which relate to AI, and is something that anyone should consider while still working towards their degree. If you were to shed all your current expectations and plans for yourself, what could you see yourself doing that would let you support yourself sustainably in both a financial and mental sense? Focus on specific, positive things that would define a fulfilling career for you and try to keep an eye out for opportunities that match. We often build an image of our future in our head that we are unwilling to discard, and you are at a perfect point in your life to make changes.
And, in a parallel track, consider the sorts of things that make you happy. It is easy to identify stressors because they tend to make themselves prominent in our lives, but we often fail to give due consideration to things that give us enjoyment. This may be art, socialization, reading, physical activity, etc. As a graduate student you may be forced to neglect some of this as a matter of time management, but it's worth identifying the things that give you peace and enjoyment so that you can maximize their presence in your life. Having a positive focus on including happiness in your life is a much more sustainable mindset than a negative focus on excluding stress; if you fill enough of your day with positive activities and situations then there will simply be less time for the remainder to trouble you.
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Comment on Satisfactory | 1.1 launch trailer in ~games
TMarkos LinkThe building improvements look fantastic. Not sure I have time in my day for a new run, but someday...The building improvements look fantastic. Not sure I have time in my day for a new run, but someday...
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Comment on ‘Nosferatu’ director Robert Eggers sets ‘A Christmas Carol’ remake at Warner Bros., Willem Dafoe eyed for Scrooge in ~movies
TMarkos LinkWhile I'm skeptical that any adaptation can dethrone the Muppet version, this looks promising. I can easily see Dafoe as Scrooge.While I'm skeptical that any adaptation can dethrone the Muppet version, this looks promising. I can easily see Dafoe as Scrooge.
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Comment on Atomic Heart II | Announcement in ~games
TMarkos LinkIt looks interesting, as the first game did. A pity that their studio helps to fund the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, so I will never give them a cent.It looks interesting, as the first game did. A pity that their studio helps to fund the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, so I will never give them a cent.
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Comment on GenAI is our polyester in ~tech
TMarkos LinkI feel like this article's intended point ignores the fact that a majority of fiber production is still polyester. It's not that people swung back to cotton, but more that the industry took some...I feel like this article's intended point ignores the fact that a majority of fiber production is still polyester. It's not that people swung back to cotton, but more that the industry took some time to figure out the cheapest configuration that was still acceptable to consumers. That configuration is still mostly polyester.
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Comment on The impossible predicament of the death newts in ~enviro
TMarkos Linkhttps://archive.is/hJHNM Archive link, since the site is not loading for me.Archive link, since the site is not loading for me.
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Comment on How the little-known ‘dark roof’ lobby may be making US cities hotter in ~enviro
TMarkos Link ParentMimicSquid has it correct, but I will add that in economics buggy whips are used as a model or shorthand for industries that lose relevance rapidly due to technological advances. They went from...MimicSquid has it correct, but I will add that in economics buggy whips are used as a model or shorthand for industries that lose relevance rapidly due to technological advances. They went from being an essential component of transportation to almost complete irrelevance within an extremely short span of years
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Comment on How the little-known ‘dark roof’ lobby may be making US cities hotter in ~enviro
TMarkos LinkYet another buggy whip lobby trying to mandate its existence even when its enabling market conditions disappear. The sheer entitlement on display is infuriating. Allowing regulatory capture of...Yet another buggy whip lobby trying to mandate its existence even when its enabling market conditions disappear. The sheer entitlement on display is infuriating. Allowing regulatory capture of legislatures and regulatory bodies is a primary force in the degradation of America as a nation, enabling large-scale theft of money from consumers and the public in the name of consistent growth for business.
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Comment on Behind the curtain: A white-collar bloodbath in ~tech
TMarkos Link ParentI think that's close to what I'm describing but I'm specifically talking about something that has several differently-instructed agents working in parallel to self-monitor and bias subsequent...I think that's close to what I'm describing but I'm specifically talking about something that has several differently-instructed agents working in parallel to self-monitor and bias subsequent attempts against the output of past tests in order to break looping behavior and improve future outputs. It's all about the amount of context you can jam in to the machine.
Also very possible that AI performance just isn't where it needs to be yet. My own tests with OpenAI's products have been pretty disappointing in terms of complex problem-solving, but there was a big leap in performance when 4.1 came out, and before that the transition from 3 to 4 was similarly large. It's possible that they won't be able to improve performance at all from here, but I think that's less likely than the case where it continues to get marginally better every iteration, at least for the near future.
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Comment on Behind the curtain: A white-collar bloodbath in ~tech
TMarkos Link ParentWhen using them for coding tasks I get the impression that we're missing a layer of complexity. The problem is that nobody has put together an AI suite that can test the output for functionality...When using them for coding tasks I get the impression that we're missing a layer of complexity. The problem is that nobody has put together an AI suite that can test the output for functionality in the target environment. It's well within the abilities of current AI to put out an initial sample of code, evaluate the results, and continually revise it until it works (for some things, at least) but right now the human has to do all the run/evaluate QA stuff and provide feedback to the AI. It's easy to see how you could plumb AI into a full requirements-driven coding process and have it autogenerate tests and fixes.
That's the real threat, I think, and the missing piece is not AI performance but instead the infrastructure to allow the AI to act in a multi-step iterative process in a sandbox to create the desired product.
I do think the AI CEOs are selling a product that won't be on the market for five, maybe ten years, because I'm realistic about the amount of work and config that will have to go into making a toolkit like that, to say nothing of getting businesses to actually install and use it. I don't think they're being hyperbolic about the eventual impact of AI on jobs, though. Again, five to ten years plus time for adoption. As the sector grows more robust and has more mature product offerings, it will absolutely decimate a lot of entry-level positions.
Given the speed of public policy, it isn't absurd to start the conversation now.
I addressed an item in my backlog and have been playing Dungeons of Hinterberg. I'm very impressed so far, the concept is clever and the gameplay loop is a nice mix of stardew-style community interaction, zelda-style puzzling and various other exploration tasks in the mix. It manages to be both relaxing and engaging in turns. There's a lot of content in it and apparently a NG+ if you really want to grapple further.