TonesTones's recent activity
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Comment on Why people embrace conspiracy theories: It's about community, not gullibility in ~life
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Comment on iOS 26 is here in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI’m not planning to upgrade. Apple’s in a weird spot because their stuff… works? I’m pretty happy with my iPhone, iPad, and MacBook. I don’t need them to change. There are some things that would...I’m not planning to upgrade. Apple’s in a weird spot because their stuff… works? I’m pretty happy with my iPhone, iPad, and MacBook. I don’t need them to change. There are some things that would be nice, like exposing some more settings programatically or making the OS a bit faster. Maybe some better organization options or third-party syncing for Messages.app?
However, there’s no glaring things that need upgrading. I don’t want change. Still, no company can rest on their laurels. Apple needs to show big, meaningful change. I’m just not sure that exists for them in the OS space anymore.
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Comment on Your phone already has social credit. We just lie about it. in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentThis seems like the best we can do? I don’t see a reasonable alternative. (A) You are entitled to use Uber no matter what — not great for people who regularly harass drivers (B) You are entitled...This seems like the best we can do? I don’t see a reasonable alternative.
(A) You are entitled to use Uber no matter what — not great for people who regularly harass drivers
(B) You are entitled to use Uber unless some third-party deems it inappropriate — now they can just do the same denylisting with no oversight
(C) You are entitled to use Uber unless Uber doesn’t let you — very similar to B, except that Uber’s decisions are kept in check by Lyft, taxis, and other ridesharing services who want their business.It’d be nice if you could just say “You are allowed to use a service if and only if your use of that service will not be harmful” but in reality, someone somewhere will need to make that call.
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Comment on Your phone already has social credit. We just lie about it. in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentAfter reading the article, I came here to post until I found that my perspective had already been said! I’d argue that reputation is one of the fundamental values of the human economy; it’s built...After reading the article, I came here to post until I found that my perspective had already been said! I’d argue that reputation is one of the fundamental values of the human economy; it’s built into every exchange. We pay brand premiums because of reputation. We hire and admit based on reputation.
Ironically, the author’s insight is precisely what they overlook. The fact that reputation is privatized is a good thing. It means that companies and people can go to a different party to regain reputation if they have lost it with one party.
The issue with social credit as a centralized measure is that can be used for consolidation of power. The government is not subject to the same market checks and balances. At the end of the day, humans can choose to do things or not do things. It’s better for that power to be in the hands of companies and individuals than with the government, who already has a monopoly on violence.
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Comment on Can AI rescue us from the mess of prior auth? in ~health
TonesTones Link ParentI wasn’t aware! That actually changes the article quite a bit. Because that implies if their insurance plan receives more funding, their profit maximum goes up. So the theoretical incentive is...Obamacare requires the "loss ratio" (the amount of premiums spent on medical care) for Medicare Advantage and larger insurance plans to be at least 85%. If they pay out less than that, the profits go to the government. So I imagine they'd try to get it to exactly 85%?
I wasn’t aware! That actually changes the article quite a bit. Because that implies if their insurance plan receives more funding, their profit maximum goes up. So the theoretical incentive is actually the opposite of what the article’s author claims: a fixed cap on benefits is also a fixed cap on profits for each plan. They would prefer to convince the government for more general funding.
I still believe that private health insurance should be strictly a non-profit endeavor. Although society could probably do just fine with a strong board enforcing antitrust measures on profit-based companies.
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Comment on Slay the Spire 2 Early Access delayed til March 2026 in ~games
TonesTones LinkHaha I feel very similar to StS2 as I do Monster Train 2. So much content in the original that I have yet to explore. Perhaps this is just an artifact of me having very little time to play games now.Haha I feel very similar to StS2 as I do Monster Train 2. So much content in the original that I have yet to explore. Perhaps this is just an artifact of me having very little time to play games now.
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Comment on Photo digitizing in ~tech
TonesTones LinkDepends if you have access to a scanning machine like a ScanSnap. It would not be worth buying one for this project (unless I’m dramatically underestimating the cost of the scanning service), but...Depends if you have access to a scanning machine like a ScanSnap. It would not be worth buying one for this project (unless I’m dramatically underestimating the cost of the scanning service), but if you don’t have a ScanSnap, I imagine scanning all those photos individually with a printer will take an eternity. If you do have access to a ScanSnap or similar, you could probably scan them all in a day.
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Comment on Sweden's employment agency has been tracking the online locations of thousands of citizens claiming unemployment benefits in an effort to crack down on welfare fraud in ~tech
TonesTones LinkWhat a strange way to do enforcement. I don’t know anything about Sweden’s laws, but shouldn’t the banks that receive the deposited funds (either via paper check or direct deposit) be able to say...What a strange way to do enforcement. I don’t know anything about Sweden’s laws, but shouldn’t the banks that receive the deposited funds (either via paper check or direct deposit) be able to say where their customers live? KYC and all that. Place of residence is pretty important in many countries, even just for tax reasons.
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Comment on Can AI rescue us from the mess of prior auth? in ~health
TonesTones LinkI love posts like this where they are a deep dive into a topic from an expert; I get to learn so much about the intricacies of a system that I don’t normally get exposure to. Every time I learn...I love posts like this where they are a deep dive into a topic from an expert; I get to learn so much about the intricacies of a system that I don’t normally get exposure to.
Medicare Advantage (MA), the federal program in which patients’ Medicare benefits are turned over to a health plan, creating an arrangement known as capitation in which the health plan receives a fixed sum (adjusted for patient age and preexisting illnesses) to care for a patient, usually over a full year. Such arrangements give health plans a powerful incentive to minimize their expenditures.
Every time I learn more about the health care system in the U.S., the more I think there’s no reasonable way to structure fully private for-profit health insurance companies without creating perverse incentives.
I’m still open to private health insurance but I just think they should be non-profits with executive pay limit and legal requirements to put any extra money towards medical R&D, premium discounts, additional care, etc. The profit incentive just breaks everything.
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Comment on Why language models hallucinate in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI want to preface by hedging that it’s been quite some time since I’ve engaged in math research, and some of the concepts fly over my head. I think the authors’ hypothesis is a reasonable one, so...- Exemplary
I want to preface by hedging that it’s been quite some time since I’ve engaged in math research, and some of the concepts fly over my head.
I think the authors’ hypothesis is a reasonable one, so I wanted to skim through the paper to see what new evidence they had to arrive at this conclusion. I was very disappointed by the actual text of the paper, since it seems like nothing more than a well-defined hypothesis.
Mathematically, it seemed like the paper made a lot of assumptions about how LLMs and the training process worked in order to arrive at its conclusion, without a whole lot of evidence or citations showing why those assumptions were valid. I won’t get into the weeds since I’m probably wrong about the details and I think I can make my argument without those details.
See, modern ML research is a lot more like science than math. Making unjustified assumptions about underlying functions and distributions is how most research is done; then, you design and perform experiments to try and develop something meaningful regardless of your assumptions. The most surprising thing about this paper was the lack of any meaningful experiments or data to justify its conclusions. Especially surprising considering that OpenAI definitely has the resources to run experiments on models.
That brings me to the kicker: if OpenAI had actually figured out methodology to reduce hallucinations, it would be a trade secret and would never have been published. It’s possible that’s what happened. Perhaps this paper originally had made progress on hallucinations, but was censored for business reasons. It could have been published anyway for internal political reasons, as signals to investors, or for public attention.
It’s also possible that they know their hypothesis is wrong from experiments, and they are publishing anyway to throw competing model developers off their scent and give them a red herring. This is the problem with profit-driven businesses being responsible for research. There are already so many perverse incentives about reputation in academia, and if you introduce the monetary and political incentives of business, it becomes so hard to tell if anything published is legitimate.
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Comment on What art means to me in this era of AI tools in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI spend some time writing online. It’s a pretty different style than the comments I write here but, who knows, maybe someday someone will find it and it will end up posted here. I indulge in that...- Exemplary
I spend some time writing online. It’s a pretty different style than the comments I write here but, who knows, maybe someday someone will find it and it will end up posted here.
I indulge in that writing, which I consider art, not for the final product. I write because of the way that the process of writing transforms the person that I am. I think many of us get distracted by the commercialization, attention-seeking, and productivity-optimizing of the modern era. AI might prevent most artists from commercializing their work and from getting a wide audience, but those things were always modern privileges. Historically, artists and their art were lost to the sands of time, and today they will be lost to feeds of AI slop.
The pieces that I work on will never be remembered, cannot be sold, and will likely only be appreciated by a handful of folks, probably personal friends. Yet, my engagement with art yields a deeper reward about my human condition. AI can’t take that away, and it doesn’t even feel like a threat.
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Comment on The evidence that AI is destroying jobs for young people just got stronger in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentI don’t think it totally does, but the distinction is pedantic; I wasn’t being formal. I said “stop hiring new grads” when the data shows that new grads are getting hired at a lower rate, not that...- Exemplary
Doesn't this logic predicate that all students use AI?
I don’t think it totally does, but the distinction is pedantic; I wasn’t being formal. I said “stop hiring new grads” when the data shows that new grads are getting hired at a lower rate, not that none of them are finding jobs.
I think the realistic proportions of students (especially at large universities that have trouble enforcing policy) who are wholly dependent on AI for their coursework would shock most people that don’t work in a university setting, and potentially a lot that do. I believe the percentage is large enough to make a statistically significant impact on the larger trend for entire cohorts.
My larger point was more that there are a lot of factors when it comes to entry-level hiring shrinking. I started from assumptions of “AI bad” and “AI good” but there are similar arguments for the timing of COVID on development (virtual classrooms, poor social skills, etc.), the rise of short-form content and its impact on attention, and broader economic forces. I just think the “entry-level jobs in specific industries is down” doesn’t support “AI is effective” well at all.
People in their earlier 20s today got screwed for a lot of reasons, and I think you can point to any of them as valid explanations for reasons companies don’t hire them as much.
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Comment on The evidence that AI is destroying jobs for young people just got stronger in ~tech
TonesTones LinkThis is tricky. It’s very difficult to distinguish between different causes when analysing trends in employment. Suppose your company believes in the capabilities of AI. You conclude that the use...This is tricky. It’s very difficult to distinguish between different causes when analysing trends in employment.
Suppose your company believes in the capabilities of AI. You conclude that the use of AI makes workers more efficient, and so in the short term, you see if your company can get by with fewer workers using AI. Then you can increase hiring when you scale. So for now, stop hiring new grads.
Suppose your compant believes the opposite and believes that AI is not effective. You conclude that the use of AI is a sign of being unable to distinguish quality work, and that it’s generally a bad thing to hire someone who uses AI for everything.
Unfortunately, students use AI for everything. So, the natural thing is to take the data of student dependence on AI and stop hiring new grads.The only companies who should be hiring new grads right now are those who believe their workers should be frequently using AI but that it also won’t be a meaningful productivity change. That sure isn’t a popular opinion right now.
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Comment on Why do you like your job? in ~life
TonesTones LinkMy job is essential. It’s potentially personally identifiable info so I won’t elaborate too much, but my job feels like a small but critical piece of human society. If I don’t do my job, someone...My job is essential.
It’s potentially personally identifiable info so I won’t elaborate too much, but my job feels like a small but critical piece of human society. If I don’t do my job, someone else will have to. If everyone involved refused enough times, society will legitimately collapse.
It’s not glorious work, and oftentimes it isn’t interesting. Yet it’s hugely motivating to know that every day I get up, I’ll be helping to prevent some cog in our societal machine from rusting up and breaking.
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Comment on Therapists are secretly using ChatGPT in ~health.mental
TonesTones Link ParentI think this is a bit more nuanced. In my experience as a patient, once I became willing to change, I could easily evaluate a therapist’s work based on personal progress that I was making. The...- Exemplary
It's really hard for a patient to be able to objectively evaluate a therapist's work in a way that is unlike, say, a doctor.
I think this is a bit more nuanced. In my experience as a patient, once I became willing to change, I could easily evaluate a therapist’s work based on personal progress that I was making. The objectivity of that evaluation depends on your definition; I wasn’t using external measurables, but I was able to report either clear decreases in symptoms or stagnation over time in a way that is similar to a doctor.
I think many people are fairly resistant to meaningful change; ego gets in the way. Even if you were able to provide a perfect metric on how “good” a therapist was, patients would go to the “best” therapist and complain your metric is bad because of their own mental blocks.
I think many people lean on a “current emotional state” metric to decide if they are happy with their therapist, which rarely translates cleanly to “quality of life improving”.
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Comment on Six months into tariffs, US businesses have no idea how to price anything in ~finance
TonesTones LinkThe biggest pain point with this administration’s economic policy isn’t the tarriffs, it’s the uncertainty. The last thing Lowe’s wants to do is agree to buy sinks for a higher price to absorb...Lowe’s, which declined to comment, last week finally agreed to a 4% to 5% increase on some sinks, but not all, DeVillers said. He hasn’t gone back to ask for more in the wake of the increased tariff, in part because he is not sure that 15% is the final levy. Thompson Traders may “have to eat it,” he said. “I’m not sure.”
The biggest pain point with this administration’s economic policy isn’t the tarriffs, it’s the uncertainty. The last thing Lowe’s wants to do is agree to buy sinks for a higher price to absorb tarriff fees just before the White House announces more delays or reductions next week.
Any competitors which have not signed agreements can now get cheaper sinks and undercut the competition.
The tarriffs won’t hit all at once, but will be reflected in month-over-month price increases that are slightly higher than before. Businesses are playing a game of increasing prices, but not so quickly that it scares their customers away; having shortages, but not so bad that the customers can’t buy anything.
The actual price increases for these products will reflect companies’ internal analysis of the demand, but especially in highly competitive environments like retail, there will also be a period where the consumer-facing companies try their best to keep prices low despite increasing costs. They know their competitors are under pressure too and it’s a great opportunity to get more customers if they can stay affordable.
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Comment on Presenting... PrizeForge: a novel crowdfunding model for sustainable open-source and fighting enshittification in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentThe explanation here didn’t do the idea justice, the video is more true to actual implementation. How they intend for it to work is that if there are two donation tiers, $1 and $100, you require...The explanation here didn’t do the idea justice, the video is more true to actual implementation.
In practice, with such a system the amount everyone is going to pay is just going to be the minimum possible payment, turning a project with 20k contributors - which would be a lot of money on patreon or kickstarter - into at most $20k/yr, which is not even minimum wage in the US.
How they intend for it to work is that if there are two donation tiers, $1 and $100, you require 100 $1 donators for every 1 $100 donator.
I couldn’t explain why this meaningfully changes the power dynamic at all. If I’m an $100 donator not seeing my money go through, I’m just choosing a different platform.
It more begs the question of why randomly introduce a point of corruption when you can... just give the creators the money?
I think their vision is that these delegates are more representative of the interests of the donators than the creators. I just have no idea why that would be true.
This feels like a solution in search of a problem.
100% agreed.
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Comment on Presenting... PrizeForge: a novel crowdfunding model for sustainable open-source and fighting enshittification in ~tech
TonesTones LinkConsider how democratic governments work. People pay their taxes, and representatives decide how those dollars are spent, ultimately hiring people directly or contracting companies to accomplish a...Consider how democratic governments work. People pay their taxes, and representatives decide how those dollars are spent, ultimately hiring people directly or contracting companies to accomplish a goal.
The equivalent to representatives in this case is the “delegate”. This illuminates where the actual power lies; you are not funding the creator, you are funding the delegate.
Consider how much power Google has over Firefox, as Google is their “firehose of money”. The delegate would have the same power as Google in this potential idea. Again, you are not funding the creator, you are funding the delegate.
It’s worth noting that sometimes a similar setup is very useful. Consider a non-profit like FUTO, who primarily just funds other projects and does very little directly. This allows them to coordinate projects with a common goal and increase collaboration in the space. Once more, the delegate is the one being funded.
I think precisely when you want one person or a group of people to have control over a large sum of money, they eventually delegate and become a natural “middleman”, kind of like how politicians don’t implement changes directly. I’m simply pointing out that the delegate isn’t someone who is holding the creator accountable, they are the ones who need to be held accountable (in multiple senses of the word!).
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Comment on Should C be mandatory learning for career developers? in ~comp
TonesTones (edited )LinkI think learning C has a fairly high payoff in terms of developer learning outcomes even if you never use the language. Sure, C has some idiosyncracies that are products of its time, and another...I think learning C has a fairly high payoff in terms of developer learning outcomes even if you never use the language. Sure, C has some idiosyncracies that are products of its time, and another language might be able to teach similar lessons while not being as tedious, but C has the nice benefit of being instructive while also enabling developers to read lots of historic code.
I wouldn’t be surprised if pioneering schools start teaching their systems classes with a language like Go or Rust in the next 10 years with an elective for C.
Ninja Edit: Disclaimer that I’ve not actually used Go or Rust much and I don’t know if they would serve as teaching equivalents in practice.
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Comment on Chinese property giant Evergrande delisted after spectacular fall in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentI probably should have quoted the piece I was responding to. I was confused because my view was that the “responsible” decision would have been never to lend Ted and Tina the money to buy a home....I probably should have quoted the piece I was responding to.
Ted & Tina still lost their home so Goldman Sachs could do it all over again with other subprime loans.
I was confused because my view was that the “responsible” decision would have been never to lend Ted and Tina the money to buy a home. Seems like your argument that it’s better for them never to have owned a home than to have been loaned it and then lose it? I think I see that logic: moving homes is stressful, the mortgage gives the family a false sense of hope, etc.
I’m not sure the critique of subprime BNPL holds the same weight for me. I don’t mind if someone is able to BNPL a bunch of meals and then declare bankruptcy instead of needing to go on food stamps. They’ll be stressed over bills either way.
It shouldn't have happened because they knew it was irresponsible, and the bailout confirmed you get bailed out if that ship ever sinks.
The point is that the financial losers were still the ones who got bailed out. They sold their assets for way less than they bought them for.
I suppose I don’t have sympathy for the shareholders of these companies looking to get an ROI; the losers will always be the lienholders and investors. Recessions do cause pain for everyone involved, but isn’t that just life?
When I was younger, I had an opportunity where I went to a new community where I knew nobody and had zero connection to my previous life. After a few months, I got to return back and restore those old connections, mostly leaving that new community behind.
When I returned, I was immediately and profoundly shocked that my time in the community had altered my behavior, my expectations of others, my attitude, and even my personality. In hindsight, that new community was pretty small, so it was likely hard to find people that “fit” with my previous behavior.
So, without my own awareness, I had adapted and altered pieces of myself to fit my new community for the sake of finding connection. This process was so subconscious that I think this adaptation to new communities is evolutionarily built into human beings.
It’s crazy to me how much we can change if it allows us to find a community. My own experience made me much more understanding of cults, religions, and political movements. I’m not surprised that people are willing to believe in conspiracy theories, sometimes outright rejecting their own sensory evidence, in order to preserve their sense of belonging.