TonesTones's recent activity
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Comment on OpenAI and Anthropic endorse call for US government to "pace" AI progress in ~comp
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Comment on US Federal Communications Commission bans foreign-produced solar inverters in ~enviro
TonesTones LinkThank you for posting. Is this blanket ban just an attack on renewable energy? I need someone with more technical expertise to weigh in, but my intuition says there should have been less...Thank you for posting.
Is this blanket ban just an attack on renewable energy? I need someone with more technical expertise to weigh in, but my intuition says there should have been less disruptive ways to achieve the same result.
The concern, as written, is about widespread malicious firmware updates. Would there be large obstacles (e.g., IP boundaries) to having foreign hardware run U.S. firmware maintained by U.S. software companies? Could you block network access to the inverters and still rely on them to work properly?
I’m used to assuming the worst combination of malice, corruption, and incompetence from this administration. I would still like to make sure my total lack of experience with this kind of hardware isn’t leading me to make bad assumptions.
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Comment on Unreleased OpenAI model escapes containment and hacks into Hugging Face in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentThis is exactly what I believe happened. Models appear have the capability to do what’s being described, at least based on what cybersecurity researchers claim (I am not one). The sandbox was...This is exactly what I believe happened. Models appear have the capability to do what’s being described, at least based on what cybersecurity researchers claim (I am not one).
The sandbox was Internet-connected and the models were convinced they needed to escape containment and the models proceeded to send a malicious attack. That all feels like it’s by design rather than an “oops” accident.
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Comment on You can vote on the design of the next Euro banknotes! in ~design
TonesTones LinkDesign G looks straight out of a video game in my opinion. Not necessarily a bad thing, though. Very modern. My favorite is Design I. I like the vertical note with the birds, plus the subtle...Design G looks straight out of a video game in my opinion. Not necessarily a bad thing, though. Very modern.
My favorite is Design I. I like the vertical note with the birds, plus the subtle additions like the space-related inventions at the top of the note.
Though, as an American, I do not get a vote. I wish we did something similar here every once in a while, although the American bill feels very traditional.
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Comment on America’s enterprising spirit is booming after decades-long slump in ~finance
TonesTones LinkI think this is a key line from the article that unfortunately suggests this is not as positive as one would hope. This suggests that these are businesses applying for local applications rather...Census data shows that the rise in business applications has been driven by start-ups that are not likely to hire workers rather than by those that are.
I think this is a key line from the article that unfortunately suggests this is not as positive as one would hope.
This suggests that these are businesses applying for local applications rather than to the IRS for an EIN, making it more likely that these are sole proprietorships or single-member LLCs.
I would hazard that this is more consistent with gig workers (rideshare drivers, AI training contractors, and dropshippers, etc.) applying for businesses to separate their business finances from their personal finances for tax purposes. I wouldn’t characterize that kind of startup as entrepreneurship; it’s more in line with people not finding consistent employment elsewhere.
That’s also consistent with the post-pandemic timing and the rise of the gig economy. I do believe that, over a long time horizon, AI will make entrepreneurship eaiser, but I doubt that’s what this data is reflecting.
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Comment on AI mania is eviscerating global decisionmaking in ~tech
TonesTones LinkIt’s a great essay, though I wonder if the author has a slightly biased sample because they are a consultant. In my experience, there’s a decent number of successful companies that just take the...It’s a great essay, though I wonder if the author has a slightly biased sample because they are a consultant. In my experience, there’s a decent number of successful companies that just take the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. Those companies are slow to adopt AI, cautious in their approach, and also much less likely to hire external consultants to fix internal problems. I think companies meaningfully spending on consultants have the same culture of aggressive change that would lead to the described approach to AI.
People have a hard time changing, and I think that’s the undercurrent in this entire piece.
But the broader reality is so much worse: people who have no background in the technology at all actually believe what they are saying.
Consider the perspective of someone with no technical background in AI. For nearly thirty years, their exposure to production-ready software is as follows. When it works, it works in extremely predictable ways, and when it doesn’t, it usually breaks in incredibly obvious ways. That’s the condition, after testing and QA and all the normal software best practicies.
“Prouduction-ready” LLMs and generative AI will never, ever meet that bar. You can tell that to a non-technical person, but those years of prior experience will make real persuasion difficult, even if they accept that these are random technologies at face value. That prior of consistent, predictable tech leads to these rollout strategies.
This was a terrible mistake. It backfired in the most predictable way imaginable – every lukewarm client that saw the chatbot in action, even with us telling them that it was not going to accomplish what they wanted, wanted to buy it immediately.
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
TonesTones LinkDue to an extremely busy time at work, I really need something to detach my brain when I get home. I’m re-reading The Fellowship of the Ring, and I’ll see if I finish a re-read of the full series....Due to an extremely busy time at work, I really need something to detach my brain when I get home.
I’m re-reading The Fellowship of the Ring, and I’ll see if I finish a re-read of the full series. This is my third time with The Lord of the Rings, and it’s great because it’s simultaneously so familiar and yet the writing is still brilliant.
I typically remember the series for its major plot points and story beats, but the writing comes together because of the piece-by-piece worldbuilding, which makes rereads very satisfying. I can pay more attention to the subtle details: the songs, the descriptions of each event, etc., which Tolkein handles excellently. I’m looking forward to it every day!
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Comment on $22,000 per hour: assistants use a legislative loophole to outearn US surgeons in ~health
TonesTones Link ParentFittingly, this is the best argument I’ve heard for single-payer healthcare. With one insurance company (typically a national government program), they get monopoly power over healthcare pricing....everyone blames insurance companies but they are the ones with leverage to be on the other side of cost pressures
Fittingly, this is the best argument I’ve heard for single-payer healthcare. With one insurance company (typically a national government program), they get monopoly power over healthcare pricing. This lets them maximally drive healthcare costs down to provide the most accessible programs.
There’s certainly many free-market arguments to oppose this kind of price pressure. But this is one of the primary benefits of a nationalized healthcare program, even if hospitals and doctor’s offices are the biggest financial losers.
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Comment on Just be normal about things - On sleepmaxxing, beef-only diets, political hysteria, and the lost art of being reasonable in ~health.mental
TonesTones LinkI couldn’t get through the first half of this blog post. I strongly believe this isn’t a symptom of culture change, but just how online feeds appear. In general, people do not post about things...I couldn’t get through the first half of this blog post. I strongly believe this isn’t a symptom of culture change, but just how online feeds appear.
In general, people do not post about things unless they’re strongly opinionated about it. Through the lens of a social media feed, I can see why the author feels the way they do about society’s treatment of everything.
In the real world, people seem just as indifferent and wishy-washy and normal as they have for most of my life.
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Comment on US releases powerful Anthropic model Mythos to some US companies in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentI think there’s a simpler explanation? People—or at least the executives at many companies involved—believe these models are quite powerful and want to justify government controls so they have...I think there’s a simpler explanation?
People—or at least the executives at many companies involved—believe these models are quite powerful and want to justify government controls so they have access to them before competitors do. Business as usual; capital building moats with regulatory capture!
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Comment on Apple announces significant price increases for MacBooks, iPads, more in ~tech
TonesTones LinkIf you want to upgrade, do so now! I just snagged a new Pro for $450 less than Apple’s new price on their website. I’ll probably leave it in the box for the next several months; I wasn’t planning...The price increases haven’t yet hit some of Apple’s products being sold on Amazon — many of which were already discounted for Prime Day.
If you want to upgrade, do so now! I just snagged a new Pro for $450 less than Apple’s new price on their website. I’ll probably leave it in the box for the next several months; I wasn’t planning to upgrade until early next year, but I don’t think memory prices will fall anytime soon.
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Comment on Does an alternative/FOSS version of the WhatsApp client exist? in ~tech
TonesTones LinkBeeper and Matrix both offer bridges to WhatsApp. I haven’t used either, but I am vaguely interested in messaging bridges and have Matrix self-hosting on my list of someday projects. Beeper may be...Beeper and Matrix both offer bridges to WhatsApp. I haven’t used either, but I am vaguely interested in messaging bridges and have Matrix self-hosting on my list of someday projects.
Beeper may be more plug-and-play, and more explicitly is designed for bridging to other messaging apps. Matrix is more of a messaging protocol itself, but as far as I understand, there do exist ways to connect to third-party apps if your heart so desires.
For Matrix, you will also have to choose from one of the clients to actually do your messaging. More points of possible breakage but it is a more “free and open” setup.
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Comment on What do you think the top three most used apps on your phone for the past week are? in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI predict Firefox Focus, Messages, and Music, in that order. Turns out it was Firefox Focus (6h), Messages (5h), and CoMaps (4h), an open source maps application. I did drive to multiple cities...I predict Firefox Focus, Messages, and Music, in that order.
Turns out it was Firefox Focus (6h), Messages (5h), and CoMaps (4h), an open source maps application. I did drive to multiple cities some distance away this week, so that’s where that came from. WhatsApp and Music were #4 and #5, respectively, with about 2h on each.
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Comment on How funerals keep Africa poor in ~life
TonesTones Link ParentHeard. I hadn’t really considered, but I see that the family units in Western cultures often consist only of the nuclear family. That’s definitely a greater economic strain on potential...Heard. I hadn’t really considered, but I see that the family units in Western cultures often consist only of the nuclear family. That’s definitely a greater economic strain on potential entrepreneurs or professionally successful individuals.
I wonder how much that culture would naturally subside if the institutions were stronger.
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Comment on How funerals keep Africa poor in ~life
TonesTones Link ParentI agree that the moral judgment is a valuable distinction to make. I think that even though “nepo baby” is a derogatory term, it’s still a common practice. Especially among wealthy and powerful...Though I agree in general, as above, I totally disagree with this. The scale and scope is so dissimilar. "Nepo baby" is a derogatory term in America, whereas in high-kinship societies it's just... life.
I agree that the moral judgment is a valuable distinction to make. I think that even though “nepo baby” is a derogatory term, it’s still a common practice.
Especially among wealthy and powerful families, families find ways to get that kinship outcome within the structures at hand, particularly education. Competitive, elite schools often have legacy admissions. Expensive private high schools serve as ways for privileged children to establish strong networks with other children of privilege when they’re just growing up.
My larger point was that one can see kinship allegiance still being a strong priority within American society. That allegiance just incurs less economic loss (or at least less obvious loss) because the institutions are strong.
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Comment on How funerals keep Africa poor in ~life
TonesTones LinkThanks for posting; I really enjoyed reading the article and the companion pieces from the author. I trust his general observations about some cultures in African societies, and the individual...- Exemplary
Thanks for posting; I really enjoyed reading the article and the companion pieces from the author.
I trust his general observations about some cultures in African societies, and the individual examples are compelling, but I was quite surprised by his chain of causation.
Kinship networks certainly do provide a number of important welfare functions: people want to see their relatives fed and housed and cared for, and a kinship network is, among other things, a mechanism for accomplishing that. But it’s hard not to notice something darker. The kinship network has a strong interest in preventing any of its members from becoming prosperous enough to no longer need it: someone who no longer needs your help is also someone who might not help you.
David argues that the kinship network hobbles people from investing in savings or business development, which makes sense to me, but then concludes that the kinship network hinders economic growth at large.
This dynamic, you’ll notice, isn’t really compatible with durable economic growth. Economic development is extraordinarily difficult in intensive kinship culture.
Concluding causation doesn't sit right with me, and this is because the observable behaviors of "kinship culture"—offering jobs to kinship members even when they aren't perfect, having credit networks also within families, needing to care for the unsuccessful or unemployed within kinship—are mostly well and alive within rich, well-off societies as well. I can only speak from anecdotal experience, but I believe it's quite rare for individuals to abandon their family's well-being for their own pursuit, unless there's been a severe conflict between that individual and the family. Kinship loyalty still appears very strong in at least American society.
The core difference, to me, is that there often isn't a tradeoff, because of the economic efficiencies in America that the African countries lack. When people age, children typically don't move back home to care; instead, elderly people are moved into private care facilities that can serve many people, and the elderly might pay from their own savings, a reverse mortgage, Social Security, etc. When someone is unable to work due to permanent disability, there's might be a legal structure set up to ensure their family can provide them some income tax-free, along with substantial government aid (which is still often insufficient, but I'm comparing against the societies described in the article). America is notorious among developed nations for being pretty unforgiving and unequal, but the centralized support structures are still leagues beyond undeveloped nations.
The author does identify that the lack of strong, central institutions contributes to the problem. But surprisingly, the author concludes that kinship loyalties prevent the institutions from forming.
In large part, this is because kinship loyalties crowd out loyalties to impersonal institutions: this lack of impersonal social trust is why African societies have so few large firms, for example. But it’s also because the glue that holds together kinship society is the occasional immolation of built-up wealth.
It seems far more intuitive to me to conclude that the existence of strong institutions alleviates the burden of kinship loyalty. When people can trust institutions (banks, courts of law, etc.), they can focus on themselves and their own careers, specializing and providing greater economic efficiency. Frankly, abandoning kinship loyalty in the type of society his other article describes seems like it would just mean letting all these unemployed or elderly people have no support.
There’s a reason why virtually every economically successful society has graduated from a social order that stresses the claims of kin into one that stresses the rights of individuals.
I think the economic, legal, and political successes come first, and the social order transformation comes later.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? (Results) in ~talk
TonesTones Link ParentI’m really hesitant to accept this claim off-hand. I do not know anything about Aboriginal life, but I’m only a couple generations removed from agricultural farmers, and my impression is their...From what I know of Aboriginal life, there wasn't actually a heap of work involved.
I’m really hesitant to accept this claim off-hand. I do not know anything about Aboriginal life, but I’m only a couple generations removed from agricultural farmers, and my impression is their work looked a lot closer to 9-9-6 than a 9-5, working from before sunrise till sunset with one day off.
Everything I've read indicates a life I could life with, probably happily.
I don’t think hard work necessarily precludes satisfaction, though. I think humans do adapt to their life, and working that many hours could be gratifying, especially when (a) it includes physical exercise and sunlight, and (b) the profits and rewards of labor are your own.
For example, a hunting tribe might consistently get “runner’s highs”, the exhiliration of physical fitness, great Vitamin D, the cultural bonding from a hunt, etc. A lot more base social and physical needs are satisfied by default, whereas many workers nowadays need to intentionally seek out those basics outside of work, even if they are working fewer hours on paper.
I’m a big believer in the hedonic treadmill, and I could totally buy into the idea that tribalistic cultures were happier even if the tangible quality-of-life is lower.
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentWealth taxes are somewhat difficult to implement because wealth can move. Two of the primary reasons wealthy individuals choose to keep their assets within the United States is because of tax and...Wealth taxes are somewhat difficult to implement because wealth can move. Two of the primary reasons wealthy individuals choose to keep their assets within the United States is because of tax and inheritance legislation, especially the step-up in basis that @stu2b50 mentions. The United States does have tax havens. Plenty of individuals live and spend their wealth elsewhere while keeping the actual assets within the country.
Aggressive taxation on assets in the States could push people with resources to move that money to other countries. That would hurt the geopolitical power of the United States as those assets would become much more difficult to keep subjected to U.S. law.
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Comment on Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentFantastic comment. Great to hear from somebody using these models firsthand. To add a bit of nuance, I think a further open question is if they’ll be able to create a moat around model...Fantastic comment. Great to hear from somebody using these models firsthand.
The open question is whether or not they'll ever be able to make enough profit to justify the astronomical investment and valuations.
To add a bit of nuance, I think a further open question is if they’ll be able to create a moat around model development. The issue around the profitability of LLMs is less about demand (it’s clear that’s high) and more about competition.
The highly profitable software companies have all had very high user lock-in. Many of the products are free, available by default, and benefit from network effects. It’s not clear yet if any of these will apply to LLMs. Instead, the market gets a plethora of LLMs to choose from, and the concern is that the capabilites of Fable might be imitated by the open-source models in a couple years or less. If they do, companies will switch vendors.
Without a moat, competition will drive margins low enough so these AI companies never justify their valuations. Software VCs assume their game is winner-take-all, which has consistently been justified. If that assumption fails, that’s when the bubble will burst.
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Comment on Clanker: A word for the machine in ~tech
TonesTones LinkThe use of “clanker” in the context is something I strongly disagree with. The word “clanker” was invented for this reason. It’s literally a parody of the n-slur. Online edgy people invented the...The use of “clanker” in the context is something I strongly disagree with.
There is however a part of this that I cannot ignore. I use “clanker” to create distance from the machine, but other people are using the same word very differently. Some online jokes and skits around “clankers” do not merely say “this robot is annoying” as they deliberately pull in the imagery of slavery, segregation, civil-rights-era racism, and anti-Black tropes.
This is problematic as in those contexts the clanker is not just a machine any more and instead becomes a prop for replaying human racism behind a science-fiction mask. That is horrible and I want no part in that.
The word “clanker” was invented for this reason. It’s literally a parody of the n-slur. Online edgy people invented the term for skits because of its linguistic similarity.
The alternative which still dehumanizes LLMs, but has a much less cruel origin is “bot”. “Bot” and “botting” have been used as terms since people have used robots to outsource the human part while playing games or using social media. People bot to level up accounts in games. Bot farms on social media bait engagement and manipulate storytelling.
“Clanker” is unacceptable. It was only created because it sounds like the n-slur.
Many of the large technology companies have, with great justification, earned a reputation for acting like they are working towards the greater good while simultaneously showing willingness to cause great harm to society for their bottom line.
OpenAI joined this trend when they effectively converted from a non-profit company to (now) preparing an IPO. They’ve also been willing to release models that clearly aren’t ready for the public in order to acquire greater funding.
There’s also great historical evidence that large companies use their power to influence regulation and build legal moats to prevent competition. Technology companies are newer to that game, but there’s a strong (in my opinion) economic argument that AI companies will need to do this or face existentially threatening levels of competition.
People don’t trust the executives of Silicon Valley, often for good reason.