TonesTones's recent activity
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Comment on Clanker: A word for the machine in ~tech
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Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentWould that work? It’d be a pretty strong claim that the weak efficient market hypothesis doesn’t hold. SpaceX’s filings are public, the rules changes are public, etc. The hedge funds have an...Would that work? It’d be a pretty strong claim that the weak efficient market hypothesis doesn’t hold. SpaceX’s filings are public, the rules changes are public, etc.
The hedge funds have an extremely strong financial incentive to short SpaceX if the plan really is a short-term pump and dump, putting downwards price pressure on the stock.
I acknowledge that there are other factors (a relatively small float, Elon’s ability to create demand for stock among a small collection of wealthy investors just by attaching his name to it, etc.) that could cause the hedge funds to get too nervous around making bets like shorts.
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Comment on What are people's experiences with using Kagi? in ~tech
TonesTones Link+1 for Kagi. I’ll echo the sentiment of others here that it feels bad to pay a monthly subscription for search; search doesn’t feel quite worth $10/month. (Though, for privacy-conscious folks,...+1 for Kagi. I’ll echo the sentiment of others here that it feels bad to pay a monthly subscription for search; search doesn’t feel quite worth $10/month. (Though, for privacy-conscious folks, it’s worth noting that a brief search yields that Google values each user’s data between $30-$60/month.)
I still pay for Kagi’s product because I’m paying (a) to support a company I believe in, (b) to fund their expansion into other products like Translate and Maps, and most importantly, (c) for the peace of mind. I can’t trust Big Tech anymore.
Between enshittification and data privacy violations, I always feel uncomfortable touching products from companies like Google. I don’t know if their offering will change under my feet since they only care about me as a product to sell, and not a buying customer. I recently was notified that a jury found Google liable in a class-action lawsuit for still tracking users who opted out of personal tracking. Like Tildes, using Kagi brings a little bit of my trust in the web back. That’s what I pay for.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI saw the headline and hypothesized if this would be an interesting method of using search data to extrapolate other conclusions about the world consistently. I was very disappointed. They really...I saw the headline and hypothesized if this would be an interesting method of using search data to extrapolate other conclusions about the world consistently.
profit of $1.2 million on Polymarket bets related to which public figures would top Google’s rankings for the most searched names in 2025.
I was very disappointed. They really do bet on anything these days.
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Comment on Updates to store tags: additions, removals, and edits in ~games
TonesTones Link ParentI wonder how many of these removals were based on internal search metrics. I infer from their post that they see the primary “purpose” of tags as a category you can search by. Then, they could...For example, "Documentary" an "Drama" are established genres that have been applied across many mediums for ages.
I wonder how many of these removals were based on internal search metrics. I infer from their post that they see the primary “purpose” of tags as a category you can search by. Then, they could remove tags that aren’t often used.
A hell of a lot more useful than "Capaybaras", surely.
I mean, surely Capybaras is some kind of community joke or inside joke at Steam.
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Comment on Jet Lag Season 17: Taiwan Rail Rush | Trailer in ~hobbies
TonesTones Link ParentEpisode 8 Spoilers This game was——by far——my favorite game they’ve played on Jet Lag so far. The actual play-by-play was a bit underwhelming, and the ending two epsiodes left me wanting, but there...Episode 8 Spoilers
This game was——by far——my favorite game they’ve played on Jet Lag so far. The actual play-by-play was a bit underwhelming, and the ending two epsiodes left me wanting, but there was so much strategic potential left untapped.I think that, during the last days, both teams gave up strong victory by stalling. The game is called Rail Rush! and I think both teams would have been rewarded for completing challenges quickly, even with the steals on the board.
This game basically came down to one team or the other failing a challenge, and I think the same would have happened without stalling (but by rushing, teams reduce their own variance by doing more challenges).
I hope they repeat this game, and we get to see a real chaotic ending with time pressure to complete the last challenge in order to make a critical final train.
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Comment on For thirty years I programmed with Phish on, every day. In 2026, the music is out of phase with the work. in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentThe analogy I had in mind was that, in both cases, it appears that a new technology makes a previous skill much less valuable. (Though programming by hand might make a comeback after the bubble...The analogy I had in mind was that, in both cases, it appears that a new technology makes a previous skill much less valuable. (Though programming by hand might make a comeback after the bubble pops.)
They're entirely different skillsets with different impacts on the world.
I agree that the analogy falls apart here.
I challenged your point because it seemed specious, but now it seems you're just pulling a "coal miners: learn to code!"
I claimed that handwriting is no longer around in a commercially relevant way. When you say I’m pulling a “coal miners: learn to code!”, is it because you’re reading “coders: learn to manage agents!”? I agree that they are different sets of skills, and I do think one needs to find work that suits their skills. I’m just quite skeptical about the future of programming as a career.
I personally think I’m a competent programmer, but I left software engineering entirely (for the legal field) in response to the rise of LLMs, since I hate the scope creep agents present.
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Comment on For thirty years I programmed with Phish on, every day. In 2026, the music is out of phase with the work. in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentMy thoughts came from the context of the blog post and the comment I responded to; both are about work. I believe that the industrial capacity for an activity is a good proxy for whether or not...My thoughts came from the context of the blog post and the comment I responded to; both are about work. I believe that the industrial capacity for an activity is a good proxy for whether or not that activity is a viable career.
The author of the post is not prevented from listening to Phish and coding by hand; I still do most of my hobby programming by hand. They’re only noticing that, if they want to continue to be paid for their work, that programming by hand is less viable. I think that’s analogous to handwriting.
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Comment on For thirty years I programmed with Phish on, every day. In 2026, the music is out of phase with the work. in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentDid it not? I’m pressed to think of a current industry that regularly produces handwritten documents. The only example I can think of is schooling, but that’s because handwriting is better for...typing didn't eradicate writing by hand
Did it not? I’m pressed to think of a current industry that regularly produces handwritten documents. The only example I can think of is schooling, but that’s because handwriting is better for memory. I can surely believe people will continue to code by hand in school to learn the basics if they are studying computer science.
self driving cars didn't save us all from driving for ourselves
Self-driving cars clearly aren’t ready yet, but the industry still has room to grow. Waymo works pretty well in San Francisco. I do not think humans will drive their own cars in 50 years, but these changes take time.
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Comment on US landlords want to be paid for pandemic losses and hope to reach a deal with the Donald Trump administration in ~finance
TonesTones LinkSo frustrating. My understanding is that these “losses” actually kept the landlords in business. At the end of the day, people lost their jobs. A large number of evictions combined with a low...So frustrating. My understanding is that these “losses” actually kept the landlords in business. At the end of the day, people lost their jobs. A large number of evictions combined with a low number of people willing to move would have made rents fall. Instead, rents increased over the pandemic. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the situation, but I think the net loss for the landlords would have greater had the pause on evictions not occurred.
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Comment on The zero-days are numbered — Firefox team uses AI to find and fix vulnerabilities in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentMaybe? Disclaimer that I’m neither a career software engineer nor have any experience in security research. Yes, but this advantage is asymmetric. In general, bad actors searching for security...Maybe? Disclaimer that I’m neither a career software engineer nor have any experience in security research.
Obviously, any form of testing that can do that CAN FIND BUGS AND VULNERABILITIES.
Yes, but this advantage is asymmetric. In general, bad actors searching for security gaps can only look in public products and code. Unless there’s a bad actor within an organization (which is an entirely separate issue), defenders get the chance to run new security tests before publicizing new code.
This blog post claims that getting a software product to have 0 vulnerabilities may be possible with AI. I’m heavily skeptical of that claim (even with the “may” conditional), but if it is true, those building a product would get the chance to fix vulnerabilties before attackers get the chance to exploit them.
Real solutions to this kind of problem will always stem from type or even mathematically safe code from the ground up.
I totally agree. While I can see how AI can find security bugs at scale, I’m not at all convinced that it will find even close to all the possible vulnerabilites.
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Comment on Am I German or autistic? in ~health.mental
TonesTones LinkI took the quiz and got 60% German. I’m pretty sure I’m autistic and doing post hoc justification as to why my behavior is socially positive, and so I get German. Anyway, I sent this to a friend...I took the quiz and got 60% German. I’m pretty sure I’m autistic and doing post hoc justification as to why my behavior is socially positive, and so I get German.
Anyway, I sent this to a friend who got neither and it said to him the following.
Someone you follow scored either Both or German. They sent it to you as a question or as a joke. You are their control group.
I got absolutely and unreasonably accurately called out. Unbelievable.
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Comment on Enjoying reading in the age of LLMs in ~humanities
TonesTones LinkHave you considered trying to find a local writing club or something similar? I’m not even sure those exist since I haven’t looked. But I hear that you cannot trust the world at large not to write...Have you considered trying to find a local writing club or something similar? I’m not even sure those exist since I haven’t looked. But I hear that you cannot trust the world at large not to write using LLMs. Considering the commercial incentive to use LLMs to publish this content at scale, I agree with that mistrust.
Still, if you were able to find a small community with shared values, you might be able to find that joy from reading works by others you personally know and trust.
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Comment on Anticipating a world where LLM use is widespread in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI would not be surprised if the Internet becomes a far less valuable place to run operations like gov. benefits after LLMs. Theoretically, paying to open up in-person benefit centers to take...Right now every open service on the internet is attack surface for loosely-directed agents noodling around. What happens when large numbers of people spin up an LLM agent and tell it to "try to get me as many government benefits as you can"?
I would not be surprised if the Internet becomes a far less valuable place to run operations like gov. benefits after LLMs. Theoretically, paying to open up in-person benefit centers to take requests would be cheaper and more efficient if you assume a vast majority of online requests are malicious. I’m sure there will be other solutions, too (like going in-person to submit the initial request and then managing the benefits online, or comparing request IP addresses to application details as an initial filter), but I’m not sure what the tradeoffs would be.
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Comment on US Supreme Court rules against Colorado ban on ‘conversion therapy’ for LGBTQ+ kids in ~lgbt
TonesTones Link ParentI really appreciate the detail you’ve provided. That makes the distinction a lot clearer and I understand what the court is getting at. I think the well-understood disagreement here is that I (and...I really appreciate the detail you’ve provided. That makes the distinction a lot clearer and I understand what the court is getting at.
uniquely dangerous when the government is placing limits exclusively on speech that corresponds to one side of the political spectrum.
I think the well-understood disagreement here is that I (and many other queer folk) would say that the existence of LGBTQ+ people is not political. And the Supreme Court opinions feel like they’re in bad faith.
But if a gay or transgender client seeks her counsel in the hope of changing his sexual orientation or gender identity, Ms. Chiles cannot provide it.
Considering the history of conversion therapy, to many Americans (imo, on both sides of the spectrum), this isn’t the spirit of the ruling. Obviously people who see the harm of conversion therapy know it’s not about this case, and the anti-queer religious population believes in converting even those who want to explore their identity.
For what it's worth, I agree with that principle.
I agree. I’m still largely unconvinced this ruling actually matters except as symbolism. Unsupportive parents would find a way to skirt this legislation regardless. Cultural change usually needs to come before legal change for the legal changes to stick.
I would rather have a court that disadvantages what I believe in if it helps make it more difficult for [Trump] (or people like him) to impose their beliefs on me.
The history of this Court’s rulings indicate that they are politically motivated, and I’d hesitate before saying that the court will uphold this precedent if it obstructs the Conservative agenda.
While that’s a hypothetical, I don’t think I’m alone in that belief. That’s the biggest tragedy of this court. Many Americans do not believe in the court system to simply apply the law anymore, and that weakens the authority of the government in the long-term.
I’m not sure there’s a good outcome in general. Like you have said elsewhere, ruling the other way could have set the precedent for anti-queer laws in other states. I only hope the country is able to rebuild these institutions in a healthier way once we are less divided.
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Comment on US Supreme Court rules against Colorado ban on ‘conversion therapy’ for LGBTQ+ kids in ~lgbt
TonesTones Link ParentCan you elaborate on what you mean by this? I’m not versed in free speech at all, and I haven’t read the opinion except for the portion you quoted. Aren’t there plenty of areas of law that control...Colorado's law [also] applies to speech and speech alone, and is therefore unconstitutional because it permits speech in one direction but not the other.
Can you elaborate on what you mean by this? I’m not versed in free speech at all, and I haven’t read the opinion except for the portion you quoted.
But the effort to recast speech as conduct failed in those cases—and it must here too.
Aren’t there plenty of areas of law that control speech and speech alone when one person has an obligation to not cause harm to another? For example, a doctor cannot use words to mislead patients about their medical issues, certain investment advisors cannot misrepresent investments, NDAs generally forbid speech, and defamation law is entirely about controlling speech.
As far as I understand, Colorado is not forbidding a licensed therapist from publishing a newspaper oped that promotes conversion therapy? I’m a bit confused about the specific rationale in this case.
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Comment on Did Disney really steal Aladdin? in ~movies
TonesTones Link ParentShe’s published 4 videos on Youtube since 2022. She’s published 17 on Nebula (excluding trailers). So a fan gets much more of her content on Nebula.She’s published 4 videos on Youtube since 2022. She’s published 17 on Nebula (excluding trailers). So a fan gets much more of her content on Nebula.
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Comment on MIRAGE: the illusion of visual understanding in ~tech
TonesTones LinkWow. I don’t have time to review the paper or underlying dataets right now, but it’s pretty remarkable if what the abstract claims does actually hold up. What’s the implication? Was the text of...Wow. I don’t have time to review the paper or underlying dataets right now, but it’s pretty remarkable if what the abstract claims does actually hold up.
What’s the implication? Was the text of thr questions in this exam just contained within the training data and this is simply a classic example of overfitting? Has the model seriously picked up on these “textual clues” as to what the right answer is? This certainly brings into question the ability of an LLM to provide consistent results in a truly novel setting.
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Comment on Bernie vs. Claude in ~society
TonesTones Link ParentI recognize that from a technical perspective, everything you are saying is completely true. Understanding the shortcomings of LLMs does make this video feel strange as a political message. I...I recognize that from a technical perspective, everything you are saying is completely true. Understanding the shortcomings of LLMs does make this video feel strange as a political message.
I think it’s a poignant commentary on the larger social situation, though. Most AI endorsers, including the companies building them, are not advertising “you can prompt this tool to say anything” or “this is a glorified yes-man”. They are saying “this will replace the vast majority of skilled white-collar workers”.
That makes this “interview” an effective catch-22. Either AI proponents must hypocritically critique the real shortcomings of their own products, or contend with their “oracle of truth” making a robust argument against the big tech business model.
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Comment on Fairphone released the industry’s first ever nature report - The impact of consumer electronics on nature and biodiversity in ~enviro
TonesTones Link ParentThe quote you are citing states “moderately or highly dependent on”. While the first few pages of the report don’t elaborate or cite where they get that statistic from, I’m assuming that...The quote you are citing states “moderately or highly dependent on”. While the first few pages of the report don’t elaborate or cite where they get that statistic from, I’m assuming that industries “lowly dependent on” natural resources are excluded.
For example, lots of service-based industries in the financial sector (e.g., banking) are only really dependent on the resources needed to construct equipment, and therefore probably generate an extraordinary amount of GDP per dollar of natural resources invested.
The use of “clanker” in the context is something I strongly disagree with.
The word “clanker” was invented for this reason. It’s literally a parody of the n-slur. Online edgy people invented the term for skits because of its linguistic similarity.
The alternative which still dehumanizes LLMs, but has a much less cruel origin is “bot”. “Bot” and “botting” have been used as terms since people have used robots to outsource the human part while playing games or using social media. People bot to level up accounts in games. Bot farms on social media bait engagement and manipulate storytelling.
“Clanker” is unacceptable. It was only created because it sounds like the n-slur.