TonesTones's recent activity
-
Comment on What do you think the top three most used apps on your phone for the past week are? in ~tech
-
Comment on How funerals keep Africa poor in ~life
TonesTones Link ParentHeard. I hadn’t really considered, but I see that the family units in Western cultures often consist only of the nuclear family. That’s definitely a greater economic strain on potential...Heard. I hadn’t really considered, but I see that the family units in Western cultures often consist only of the nuclear family. That’s definitely a greater economic strain on potential entrepreneurs or professionally successful individuals.
I wonder how much that culture would naturally subside if the institutions were stronger.
-
Comment on How funerals keep Africa poor in ~life
TonesTones Link ParentI agree that the moral judgment is a valuable distinction to make. I think that even though “nepo baby” is a derogatory term, it’s still a common practice. Especially among wealthy and powerful...Though I agree in general, as above, I totally disagree with this. The scale and scope is so dissimilar. "Nepo baby" is a derogatory term in America, whereas in high-kinship societies it's just... life.
I agree that the moral judgment is a valuable distinction to make. I think that even though “nepo baby” is a derogatory term, it’s still a common practice.
Especially among wealthy and powerful families, families find ways to get that kinship outcome within the structures at hand, particularly education. Competitive, elite schools often have legacy admissions. Expensive private high schools serve as ways for privileged children to establish strong networks with other children of privilege when they’re just growing up.
My larger point was that one can see kinship allegiance still being a strong priority within American society. That allegiance just incurs less economic loss (or at least less obvious loss) because the institutions are strong.
-
Comment on How funerals keep Africa poor in ~life
TonesTones LinkThanks for posting; I really enjoyed reading the article and the companion pieces from the author. I trust his general observations about some cultures in African societies, and the individual...- Exemplary
Thanks for posting; I really enjoyed reading the article and the companion pieces from the author.
I trust his general observations about some cultures in African societies, and the individual examples are compelling, but I was quite surprised by his chain of causation.
Kinship networks certainly do provide a number of important welfare functions: people want to see their relatives fed and housed and cared for, and a kinship network is, among other things, a mechanism for accomplishing that. But it’s hard not to notice something darker. The kinship network has a strong interest in preventing any of its members from becoming prosperous enough to no longer need it: someone who no longer needs your help is also someone who might not help you.
David argues that the kinship network hobbles people from investing in savings or business development, which makes sense to me, but then concludes that the kinship network hinders economic growth at large.
This dynamic, you’ll notice, isn’t really compatible with durable economic growth. Economic development is extraordinarily difficult in intensive kinship culture.
Concluding causation doesn't sit right with me, and this is because the observable behaviors of "kinship culture"—offering jobs to kinship members even when they aren't perfect, having credit networks also within families, needing to care for the unsuccessful or unemployed within kinship—are mostly well and alive within rich, well-off societies as well. I can only speak from anecdotal experience, but I believe it's quite rare for individuals to abandon their family's well-being for their own pursuit, unless there's been a severe conflict between that individual and the family. Kinship loyalty still appears very strong in at least American society.
The core difference, to me, is that there often isn't a tradeoff, because of the economic efficiencies in America that the African countries lack. When people age, children typically don't move back home to care; instead, elderly people are moved into private care facilities that can serve many people, and the elderly might pay from their own savings, a reverse mortgage, Social Security, etc. When someone is unable to work due to permanent disability, there's might be a legal structure set up to ensure their family can provide them some income tax-free, along with substantial government aid (which is still often insufficient, but I'm comparing against the societies described in the article). America is notorious among developed nations for being pretty unforgiving and unequal, but the centralized support structures are still leagues beyond undeveloped nations.
The author does identify that the lack of strong, central institutions contributes to the problem. But surprisingly, the author concludes that kinship loyalties prevent the institutions from forming.
In large part, this is because kinship loyalties crowd out loyalties to impersonal institutions: this lack of impersonal social trust is why African societies have so few large firms, for example. But it’s also because the glue that holds together kinship society is the occasional immolation of built-up wealth.
It seems far more intuitive to me to conclude that the existence of strong institutions alleviates the burden of kinship loyalty. When people can trust institutions (banks, courts of law, etc.), they can focus on themselves and their own careers, specializing and providing greater economic efficiency. Frankly, abandoning kinship loyalty in the type of society his other article describes seems like it would just mean letting all these unemployed or elderly people have no support.
There’s a reason why virtually every economically successful society has graduated from a social order that stresses the claims of kin into one that stresses the rights of individuals.
I think the economic, legal, and political successes come first, and the social order transformation comes later.
-
Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? (Results) in ~talk
TonesTones Link ParentI’m really hesitant to accept this claim off-hand. I do not know anything about Aboriginal life, but I’m only a couple generations removed from agricultural farmers, and my impression is their...From what I know of Aboriginal life, there wasn't actually a heap of work involved.
I’m really hesitant to accept this claim off-hand. I do not know anything about Aboriginal life, but I’m only a couple generations removed from agricultural farmers, and my impression is their work looked a lot closer to 9-9-6 than a 9-5, working from before sunrise till sunset with one day off.
Everything I've read indicates a life I could life with, probably happily.
I don’t think hard work necessarily precludes satisfaction, though. I think humans do adapt to their life, and working that many hours could be gratifying, especially when (a) it includes physical exercise and sunlight, and (b) the profits and rewards of labor are your own.
For example, a hunting tribe might consistently get “runner’s highs”, the exhiliration of physical fitness, great Vitamin D, the cultural bonding from a hunt, etc. A lot more base social and physical needs are satisfied by default, whereas many workers nowadays need to intentionally seek out those basics outside of work, even if they are working fewer hours on paper.
I’m a big believer in the hedonic treadmill, and I could totally buy into the idea that tribalistic cultures were happier even if the tangible quality-of-life is lower.
-
Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentWealth taxes are somewhat difficult to implement because wealth can move. Two of the primary reasons wealthy individuals choose to keep their assets within the United States is because of tax and...Wealth taxes are somewhat difficult to implement because wealth can move. Two of the primary reasons wealthy individuals choose to keep their assets within the United States is because of tax and inheritance legislation, especially the step-up in basis that @stu2b50 mentions. The United States does have tax havens. Plenty of individuals live and spend their wealth elsewhere while keeping the actual assets within the country.
Aggressive taxation on assets in the States could push people with resources to move that money to other countries. That would hurt the geopolitical power of the United States as those assets would become much more difficult to keep subjected to U.S. law.
-
Comment on Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentFantastic comment. Great to hear from somebody using these models firsthand. To add a bit of nuance, I think a further open question is if they’ll be able to create a moat around model...Fantastic comment. Great to hear from somebody using these models firsthand.
The open question is whether or not they'll ever be able to make enough profit to justify the astronomical investment and valuations.
To add a bit of nuance, I think a further open question is if they’ll be able to create a moat around model development. The issue around the profitability of LLMs is less about demand (it’s clear that’s high) and more about competition.
The highly profitable software companies have all had very high user lock-in. Many of the products are free, available by default, and benefit from network effects. It’s not clear yet if any of these will apply to LLMs. Instead, the market gets a plethora of LLMs to choose from, and the concern is that the capabilites of Fable might be imitated by the open-source models in a couple years or less. If they do, companies will switch vendors.
Without a moat, competition will drive margins low enough so these AI companies never justify their valuations. Software VCs assume their game is winner-take-all, which has consistently been justified. If that assumption fails, that’s when the bubble will burst.
-
Comment on Clanker: A word for the machine in ~tech
TonesTones LinkThe use of “clanker” in the context is something I strongly disagree with. The word “clanker” was invented for this reason. It’s literally a parody of the n-slur. Online edgy people invented the...The use of “clanker” in the context is something I strongly disagree with.
There is however a part of this that I cannot ignore. I use “clanker” to create distance from the machine, but other people are using the same word very differently. Some online jokes and skits around “clankers” do not merely say “this robot is annoying” as they deliberately pull in the imagery of slavery, segregation, civil-rights-era racism, and anti-Black tropes.
This is problematic as in those contexts the clanker is not just a machine any more and instead becomes a prop for replaying human racism behind a science-fiction mask. That is horrible and I want no part in that.
The word “clanker” was invented for this reason. It’s literally a parody of the n-slur. Online edgy people invented the term for skits because of its linguistic similarity.
The alternative which still dehumanizes LLMs, but has a much less cruel origin is “bot”. “Bot” and “botting” have been used as terms since people have used robots to outsource the human part while playing games or using social media. People bot to level up accounts in games. Bot farms on social media bait engagement and manipulate storytelling.
“Clanker” is unacceptable. It was only created because it sounds like the n-slur.
-
Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
TonesTones Link ParentWould that work? It’d be a pretty strong claim that the weak efficient market hypothesis doesn’t hold. SpaceX’s filings are public, the rules changes are public, etc. The hedge funds have an...Would that work? It’d be a pretty strong claim that the weak efficient market hypothesis doesn’t hold. SpaceX’s filings are public, the rules changes are public, etc.
The hedge funds have an extremely strong financial incentive to short SpaceX if the plan really is a short-term pump and dump, putting downwards price pressure on the stock.
I acknowledge that there are other factors (a relatively small float, Elon’s ability to create demand for stock among a small collection of wealthy investors just by attaching his name to it, etc.) that could cause the hedge funds to get too nervous around making bets like shorts.
-
Comment on What are people's experiences with using Kagi? in ~tech
TonesTones Link+1 for Kagi. I’ll echo the sentiment of others here that it feels bad to pay a monthly subscription for search; search doesn’t feel quite worth $10/month. (Though, for privacy-conscious folks,...+1 for Kagi. I’ll echo the sentiment of others here that it feels bad to pay a monthly subscription for search; search doesn’t feel quite worth $10/month. (Though, for privacy-conscious folks, it’s worth noting that a brief search yields that Google values each user’s data between $30-$60/month.)
I still pay for Kagi’s product because I’m paying (a) to support a company I believe in, (b) to fund their expansion into other products like Translate and Maps, and most importantly, (c) for the peace of mind. I can’t trust Big Tech anymore.
Between enshittification and data privacy violations, I always feel uncomfortable touching products from companies like Google. I don’t know if their offering will change under my feet since they only care about me as a product to sell, and not a buying customer. I recently was notified that a jury found Google liable in a class-action lawsuit for still tracking users who opted out of personal tracking. Like Tildes, using Kagi brings a little bit of my trust in the web back. That’s what I pay for.
-
Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
TonesTones LinkI saw the headline and hypothesized if this would be an interesting method of using search data to extrapolate other conclusions about the world consistently. I was very disappointed. They really...I saw the headline and hypothesized if this would be an interesting method of using search data to extrapolate other conclusions about the world consistently.
profit of $1.2 million on Polymarket bets related to which public figures would top Google’s rankings for the most searched names in 2025.
I was very disappointed. They really do bet on anything these days.
-
Comment on Updates to store tags: additions, removals, and edits in ~games
TonesTones Link ParentI wonder how many of these removals were based on internal search metrics. I infer from their post that they see the primary “purpose” of tags as a category you can search by. Then, they could...For example, "Documentary" an "Drama" are established genres that have been applied across many mediums for ages.
I wonder how many of these removals were based on internal search metrics. I infer from their post that they see the primary “purpose” of tags as a category you can search by. Then, they could remove tags that aren’t often used.
A hell of a lot more useful than "Capaybaras", surely.
I mean, surely Capybaras is some kind of community joke or inside joke at Steam.
-
Comment on Jet Lag Season 17: Taiwan Rail Rush | Trailer in ~hobbies
TonesTones Link ParentEpisode 8 Spoilers This game was——by far——my favorite game they’ve played on Jet Lag so far. The actual play-by-play was a bit underwhelming, and the ending two epsiodes left me wanting, but there...Episode 8 Spoilers
This game was——by far——my favorite game they’ve played on Jet Lag so far. The actual play-by-play was a bit underwhelming, and the ending two epsiodes left me wanting, but there was so much strategic potential left untapped.I think that, during the last days, both teams gave up strong victory by stalling. The game is called Rail Rush! and I think both teams would have been rewarded for completing challenges quickly, even with the steals on the board.
This game basically came down to one team or the other failing a challenge, and I think the same would have happened without stalling (but by rushing, teams reduce their own variance by doing more challenges).
I hope they repeat this game, and we get to see a real chaotic ending with time pressure to complete the last challenge in order to make a critical final train.
-
Comment on For thirty years I programmed with Phish on, every day. In 2026, the music is out of phase with the work. in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentThe analogy I had in mind was that, in both cases, it appears that a new technology makes a previous skill much less valuable. (Though programming by hand might make a comeback after the bubble...The analogy I had in mind was that, in both cases, it appears that a new technology makes a previous skill much less valuable. (Though programming by hand might make a comeback after the bubble pops.)
They're entirely different skillsets with different impacts on the world.
I agree that the analogy falls apart here.
I challenged your point because it seemed specious, but now it seems you're just pulling a "coal miners: learn to code!"
I claimed that handwriting is no longer around in a commercially relevant way. When you say I’m pulling a “coal miners: learn to code!”, is it because you’re reading “coders: learn to manage agents!”? I agree that they are different sets of skills, and I do think one needs to find work that suits their skills. I’m just quite skeptical about the future of programming as a career.
I personally think I’m a competent programmer, but I left software engineering entirely (for the legal field) in response to the rise of LLMs, since I hate the scope creep agents present.
-
Comment on For thirty years I programmed with Phish on, every day. In 2026, the music is out of phase with the work. in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentMy thoughts came from the context of the blog post and the comment I responded to; both are about work. I believe that the industrial capacity for an activity is a good proxy for whether or not...My thoughts came from the context of the blog post and the comment I responded to; both are about work. I believe that the industrial capacity for an activity is a good proxy for whether or not that activity is a viable career.
The author of the post is not prevented from listening to Phish and coding by hand; I still do most of my hobby programming by hand. They’re only noticing that, if they want to continue to be paid for their work, that programming by hand is less viable. I think that’s analogous to handwriting.
-
Comment on For thirty years I programmed with Phish on, every day. In 2026, the music is out of phase with the work. in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentDid it not? I’m pressed to think of a current industry that regularly produces handwritten documents. The only example I can think of is schooling, but that’s because handwriting is better for...typing didn't eradicate writing by hand
Did it not? I’m pressed to think of a current industry that regularly produces handwritten documents. The only example I can think of is schooling, but that’s because handwriting is better for memory. I can surely believe people will continue to code by hand in school to learn the basics if they are studying computer science.
self driving cars didn't save us all from driving for ourselves
Self-driving cars clearly aren’t ready yet, but the industry still has room to grow. Waymo works pretty well in San Francisco. I do not think humans will drive their own cars in 50 years, but these changes take time.
-
Comment on US landlords want to be paid for pandemic losses and hope to reach a deal with the Donald Trump administration in ~finance
TonesTones LinkSo frustrating. My understanding is that these “losses” actually kept the landlords in business. At the end of the day, people lost their jobs. A large number of evictions combined with a low...So frustrating. My understanding is that these “losses” actually kept the landlords in business. At the end of the day, people lost their jobs. A large number of evictions combined with a low number of people willing to move would have made rents fall. Instead, rents increased over the pandemic. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the situation, but I think the net loss for the landlords would have greater had the pause on evictions not occurred.
-
Comment on The zero-days are numbered — Firefox team uses AI to find and fix vulnerabilities in ~tech
TonesTones Link ParentMaybe? Disclaimer that I’m neither a career software engineer nor have any experience in security research. Yes, but this advantage is asymmetric. In general, bad actors searching for security...Maybe? Disclaimer that I’m neither a career software engineer nor have any experience in security research.
Obviously, any form of testing that can do that CAN FIND BUGS AND VULNERABILITIES.
Yes, but this advantage is asymmetric. In general, bad actors searching for security gaps can only look in public products and code. Unless there’s a bad actor within an organization (which is an entirely separate issue), defenders get the chance to run new security tests before publicizing new code.
This blog post claims that getting a software product to have 0 vulnerabilities may be possible with AI. I’m heavily skeptical of that claim (even with the “may” conditional), but if it is true, those building a product would get the chance to fix vulnerabilties before attackers get the chance to exploit them.
Real solutions to this kind of problem will always stem from type or even mathematically safe code from the ground up.
I totally agree. While I can see how AI can find security bugs at scale, I’m not at all convinced that it will find even close to all the possible vulnerabilites.
-
Comment on Am I German or autistic? in ~health.mental
TonesTones LinkI took the quiz and got 60% German. I’m pretty sure I’m autistic and doing post hoc justification as to why my behavior is socially positive, and so I get German. Anyway, I sent this to a friend...I took the quiz and got 60% German. I’m pretty sure I’m autistic and doing post hoc justification as to why my behavior is socially positive, and so I get German.
Anyway, I sent this to a friend who got neither and it said to him the following.
Someone you follow scored either Both or German. They sent it to you as a question or as a joke. You are their control group.
I got absolutely and unreasonably accurately called out. Unbelievable.
-
Comment on Enjoying reading in the age of LLMs in ~humanities
TonesTones LinkHave you considered trying to find a local writing club or something similar? I’m not even sure those exist since I haven’t looked. But I hear that you cannot trust the world at large not to write...Have you considered trying to find a local writing club or something similar? I’m not even sure those exist since I haven’t looked. But I hear that you cannot trust the world at large not to write using LLMs. Considering the commercial incentive to use LLMs to publish this content at scale, I agree with that mistrust.
Still, if you were able to find a small community with shared values, you might be able to find that joy from reading works by others you personally know and trust.
I predict Firefox Focus, Messages, and Music, in that order.
Turns out it was Firefox Focus (6h), Messages (5h), and CoMaps (4h), an open source maps application. I did drive to multiple cities some distance away this week, so that’s where that came from. WhatsApp and Music were #4 and #5, respectively, with about 2h on each.