Greg's recent activity
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Comment on I think I have a broken AT&T route? in ~tech
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Comment on Goodbye refrigerants, hello magnets: Scientists develop cleaner, greener heat pump in ~enviro
Greg Link ParentThat’s really cool! Looks like the preprint is available for free if you’re interested: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4882758 I hadn’t come across SSRN before and now I’m a...That’s really cool! Looks like the preprint is available for free if you’re interested: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4882758
I hadn’t come across SSRN before and now I’m a little concerned that Elsevier are trying to embrace-extend-extinguish arxiv, but seems a useful resource for now at least
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Comment on Doctor fired after running emergency department warns about effect of for-profit firms on US health care (2022) in ~health
Greg Link ParentThis is it. Fairly often it's an extreme case of high-stakes weaponised incompetence rather than any actual problem with the fundamentals of the public service itself. Nationalisation isn't a...Basically people in the govt that don't like it, underfund it so it fails or has problems, and then point the finger at it saying "look it doesn't work", all a political game to them to destroy it.
This is it. Fairly often it's an extreme case of high-stakes weaponised incompetence rather than any actual problem with the fundamentals of the public service itself.
Nationalisation isn't a panacea, but after 40+ years of assets being handed to private entities at massive cost to the public it's pretty clear that a lot of the decision making is happening because of ideology, corruption, or both.
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Comment on Medicare for all would save 68,000 US lives per year and reduce costs by $450 billion in ~health
Greg Link ParentThe optimist in me agrees with you. The pragmatist in me has given up on the idea that a significant enough majority can be relied upon to take the same view, and wants to scream studies like this...I think about this every time we hesitate over whether we can "afford" single-payer healthcare. Can we afford not to implement it and still call ourselves a civilized society?
The optimist in me agrees with you. The pragmatist in me has given up on the idea that a significant enough majority can be relied upon to take the same view, and wants to scream studies like this from the rooftops until every single person knows that we can sidestep the “you should care about other people” debate (and associated existential crisis about how the fuck that’s even a debate) and jump straight to “this is objectively the better option, regardless of your worldview or priorities”.
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Comment on Medicare for all would save 68,000 US lives per year and reduce costs by $450 billion in ~health
Greg LinkFor fairly obvious reasons, there have been a lot of conversations in the last week or so about the death toll of the current US health insurance industry in the pursuit of profit. This is a study...For fairly obvious reasons, there have been a lot of conversations in the last week or so about the death toll of the current US health insurance industry in the pursuit of profit.
This is a study from about four years ago (just barely pre-pandemic), conducted by respected medical academics at Yale and published in The Lancet, that attempts to quantify those human and financial costs:
Taking into account both the costs of coverage expansion and the savings that would be achieved through the Medicare for All Act, we calculate that a single-payer, universal health-care system is likely to lead to a 13% savings in national health-care expenditure, equivalent to more than US$450 billion annually (based on the value of the US$ in 2017). The entire system could be funded with less financial outlay than is incurred by employers and households paying for health-care premiums combined with existing government allocations. This shift to single-payer health care would provide the greatest relief to lower-income households. Furthermore, we estimate that ensuring health-care access for all Americans would save more than 68 000 lives and 1·73 million life-years every year compared with the status quo.
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Medicare for all would save 68,000 US lives per year and reduce costs by $450 billion
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Comment on You can now put an expandable, cost-effective solar roof rack on your EV for off-grid charging in ~enviro
Greg Link ParentYeah, I can see value in the product even if it never actually pays for itself - if it works at all, which it seems like it probably should, I could see myself potentially spending that much just...Yeah, I can see value in the product even if it never actually pays for itself - if it works at all, which it seems like it probably should, I could see myself potentially spending that much just to guarantee I always had a little bit of range and reduce how often I'd need to wait around for charging spaces if I lived somewhere with a lot of sun and not a lot of infrastructure.
I definitely still find the payback claims a bit offputting: I think that accounting for realistic use patterns and prices rather than the "is this even physically possible?" I was doing above you'd be looking at ~5 years to break even compared to using only commercial chargers, ~10 if using a combination of commercial and residential, and no realistic breakeven within the product's lifespan if primarily charging at home.
But that's potentially still fine! I'd see it as a convenience cost with any potential payback as a significant bonus, I just wish companies were a bit more honest about that kind of thing.
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Comment on You can now put an expandable, cost-effective solar roof rack on your EV for off-grid charging in ~enviro
Greg (edited )Link ParentAgreed on pretty much everything you’ve said about the use case, but I am pretty dubious of their payback claims. Quick back of the envelope using $0.17/kWh (roughly the US average) would be...Agreed on pretty much everything you’ve said about the use case, but I am pretty dubious of their payback claims.
Quick back of the envelope using $0.17/kWh (roughly the US average) would be $2/day of value at a very unrealistically optimistic 100% of the fully folded out power rating for 12 hours. Unless I’ve missed something crucial, that’s an upper limit of $1,460 of value in two years - and in reality you wouldn’t hit that even in lab conditions, let alone in actual use.
Even if you’re in the most expensive power market in the US I don’t think it’d be possible to get a two year payback in real use.
All that’s to say I still like the idea, and I hope it proves to be viable - but I don’t buy their financial claims as possible, let alone realistic. And that makes me more concerned about the truth of the rest of what they’re saying.
[Edit] Actually, I guess if they’re using commercial fast charging costs as the baseline rather than home charging that might get you to a two year payoff with very optimistic but still just barely plausible assumptions. Maybe. I’d still say it’d be pretty disingenuous comparing a solar trickle charger to a high price fast charger, but it’s the only way I can see their numbers working.
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Comment on Google says AI weather model masters 15-day forecast in ~enviro
Greg Link ParentECMWF are using a 30 petaflop, 1,000,000 CPU cluster for 6 hours daily to run the forecasts, and dedicating a further 12 hours on that cluster to internal research work, so it's expensive and...ECMWF are using a 30 petaflop, 1,000,000 CPU cluster for 6 hours daily to run the forecasts, and dedicating a further 12 hours on that cluster to internal research work, so it's expensive and niche enough that only a few organisations want to make the investment.
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Comment on Romanian court annuls first round of presidential election in ~society
Greg Link ParentStrong agree on both parts! This does seem like a best case approach given where we’re at, at least: recognise the threat, air what’s going on loudly and clearly, and actually fucking react rather...Strong agree on both parts! This does seem like a best case approach given where we’re at, at least: recognise the threat, air what’s going on loudly and clearly, and actually fucking react rather than just shrugging and letting it happen as if it’s business as usual. Small though it is in the scheme of things, this actually gives me more hope than I’ve felt in the last month.
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Comment on Introducing ChatGPT Pro in ~tech
Greg Link ParentYou can also just hit "Download" on the page you linked above and it'll walk you through with a nice friendly GUI, which is probably more comfortable for a lot of users :) (cc @lou - although the...You can also just hit "Download" on the page you linked above and it'll walk you through with a nice friendly GUI, which is probably more comfortable for a lot of users :) (cc @lou - although the https://jan.ai/ link looks pretty nice too, I hadn't come across that one!)
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Comment on Waymo outsources fleet operations to African fintech Moove in Phoenix and, soon, Miami in ~transport
Greg Link ParentWeather's a good example of a dynamic situation that does depend significantly on location, actually - I was thinking of differences in fixed geography and architecture when it comes to...Weather's a good example of a dynamic situation that does depend significantly on location, actually - I was thinking of differences in fixed geography and architecture when it comes to navigation, but yeah it'd be totally fair to throw weather into the bucket as a feature of the city rather than just an external event.
The rest is... a much bigger topic that I honestly don't have the energy to get into as deeply it deserves. I very much see the problems that self driving cars could (and probably will) cause, but as with most automation I see them primarily as the same problems we've already got but bigger and faster. It's a catch 22: if we the had the organisation and political will to block the use of a given technology, that power would be better wielded by regulating in such a way that the technology actually benefits the community. If we don't have that power, it's already a foregone conclusion. Either way, I see it as a political failure more than anything.
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Comment on Waymo outsources fleet operations to African fintech Moove in Phoenix and, soon, Miami in ~transport
Greg Link ParentI don’t know for sure, but I’d be surprised if any given US city is meaningfully more difficult than another when you’re training the system to just that area, so I’d suspect regulatory...I don’t know for sure, but I’d be surprised if any given US city is meaningfully more difficult than another when you’re training the system to just that area, so I’d suspect regulatory environment and good old profit projections have more influence on the decision.
Situations like that autopilot glitch tend to be from general case systems getting thrown off by a situation they don’t recognise, and Waymo’s got the advantage of any given vehicle being limited to a specific area, so they should have pretty much 100% coverage for training data. Failure cases shift towards dynamic situations that could happen anywhere (construction, accidents, people behaving unexpectedly) rather than features of the city itself.
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Comment on Social media algorithms can change your views in just a single day in ~tech
Greg LinkI’ve got nothing meaningful to add at the macro scale - “threat to democracy” pretty well covers it already, I think. But at the micro scale, this could be a very useful bit of research. The paper...I’ve got nothing meaningful to add at the macro scale - “threat to democracy” pretty well covers it already, I think.
But at the micro scale, this could be a very useful bit of research. The paper says the reranking technique they used works both ways, and I think a lot of people would be more than happy to install a browser extension that helps to prevent “an immediate increase in negative emotions, such as sadness and anger” (the research paper’s words).
I’m not sure it’d end up reaching the people who it’s most important to reach on a societal level, but even if it just helps the mental health of those who do choose to use it, that seems like a net good for the world.
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Comment on How can it take 3GHz to emulate a Super Nintendo? One man’s quest to build a perfect SNES emulator. (2011) in ~games
Greg Link ParentThere is a real cost involved in digitising films well; not an absurd cost, or even a particularly large one in the context of a company like Disney, but a cost nonetheless. The logical next step...There is a real cost involved in digitising films well; not an absurd cost, or even a particularly large one in the context of a company like Disney, but a cost nonetheless. The logical next step in my mind would be at least giving the nerds blessing to do it themselves, since they're clearly willing to provide most of the expensive time and expertise for free, but even that would come with a stack of lawyer time to get it signed off if it were officially sanctioned by the company.
That might well not be the actual main cause here - I think you're likely right that Disney wants tight control of their IP, and I think @teaearlgraycold is likely right that Lucas personally didn't want to see the old versions released anyway - but even putting those aside it'd be an uphill battle trying to get them to spend anything at all without a clear expected return.
All that said, I'd dearly love to live in a world where "the fans who made us what we are would enjoy it" would still be considered a good reason for a business to spend some infinitesimal-to-them amount of money on a project. Or even just refrain from aggressively suing people, in the context of Nintendo…
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Comment on You should have a website in ~tech
Greg Link ParentMeanwhile I'm here feeling faintly uneasy that I can't independently own the phone number I've had for the last few decades, just in case some unprecedented glitch at the network provider...Meanwhile I'm here feeling faintly uneasy that I can't independently own the phone number I've had for the last few decades, just in case some unprecedented glitch at the network provider unassigns it from my account...
And ironically, the only reason I care is because purely IP-based services like Signal, WhatsApp, and some less-secure 2FA implementations still use it as a mandatory ID.
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Comment on You should have a website in ~tech
Greg Link ParentOh absolutely, I was meaning custom domain with the email itself hosted by Proton Mail, or Google Workspace, or whatever - I’ve been writing code and running servers for 20+ years and I still...Oh absolutely, I was meaning custom domain with the email itself hosted by Proton Mail, or Google Workspace, or whatever - I’ve been writing code and running servers for 20+ years and I still don’t want to bother hosting my own email, so fully agreed that it’s not on the cards for the vast majority! Just something that you can pick up and take elsewhere if a particular provider becomes untenable for whatever reason, basically.
And yeah, pretty much with you on the rest!
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Comment on You should have a website in ~tech
Greg Link ParentThis seems like a more important point than I maybe initially thought. I’m in the same boat as you, been online forever and deliberately don’t have any meaningful public profile - so my thinking...I've just seen way too many people cry how their whole livelihood disappeared when their main account got disappeared from whatever site they were using and want to tell them that there are options they can control.
This seems like a more important point than I maybe initially thought. I’m in the same boat as you, been online forever and deliberately don’t have any meaningful public profile - so my thinking below was around “unless you’re posting enough public content…” - but I guess a huge number of people are posting enough public content for it to matter to them.
The few of us saying “I recognise the risk, and it doesn’t apply to me” are perhaps forgetting that the risk does apply to an awful lot of the people who don’t recognise it.
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Comment on You should have a website in ~tech
Greg (edited )Link ParentYeah, I’ve been getting the feeling that a lot of the points about identity and ownership (partially the original post, partially ones here in the comments) would be better served by owning a...Yeah, I’ve been getting the feeling that a lot of the points about identity and ownership (partially the original post, partially ones here in the comments) would be better served by owning a domain and having your email there, unless you’re posting enough public content that labels like “blogger” or “photographer” might start to fit. [Edit: see above]
Email is effectively the single point of failure for the vast majority of accounts, and getting cut off by Google seems like a genuine and far-reaching risk of your access to everything disappearing, including stuff that Google doesn’t manage at all; a custom domain that you actually own mitigates a ton of that (not absolutely all of it, but I’d say at least 95%) because you can always point it somewhere else if the original email provider has issues.
Individual social accounts I’d kind of say once you’re gone, you’re gone. It’d suck to be cut off like that, but I don’t see much recourse from having a personal pseudo-linktree. Unless someone’s well known enough in a given community that people would go searching their username if they stopped posting, I guess - that’s the only real workaround I see for the “if a blogger posts in the forest with no SEO to hear it, does it make a sound?” issue.
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Comment on US President Joe Biden pardons son in ~society
Could it be a CGNAT issue? I’m not a network guy per se - which is to say I don’t have a concrete hypothesis to back that up - but it seems consistent with other times I’ve seen that being the problem. Things work for a while, because the mappings at the ISP side coincidentally don’t interfere with the local ones, but at some point they reconfigure as they onboard more customers or replace systems and their new mappings happen to be incompatible with your setup.
To @goryramsy’s point, it would also be something that could change at the carrier side without being visible to you, break your setup, and not technically be a bug on their side either.
[Edit] I’ve found tailscale to be excellent at punching through issues like this, so that might be a good way to test the issue, and even a viable longer term workaround.