23 votes

UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill

16 comments

  1. [8]
    Greg
    Link
    Minority Report civil liberties implications aside, I'm going to make a strong bet that this ends up costing tens of millions at minimum, probably more like hundreds of millions, and it all goes...

    Minority Report civil liberties implications aside, I'm going to make a strong bet that this ends up costing tens of millions at minimum, probably more like hundreds of millions, and it all goes to companies with an incredibly long and well documented history of vastly overcharging the state for sub-par tech work.

    The "good" ending is where it's so laughably, transparently useless that the only thing lost is the money spent developing it. The very plausibly bad ending is that it just barely does appear to work enough for agencies to actually use it, at which point they start making a concerted effort to hide whatever glaring flaws it has in order to justify the money spent (and potentially to avoid bad publicity around whatever cases it gets used in, if that information becomes public).

    43 votes
    1. [7]
      crissequeira
      Link Parent
      I was going to comment that I remember watching a movie like this starring Tom Cruise. Lost my opportunity. snaps fingers I guess that was the low-hanging fruit, comedically speaking. So, I guess...

      I was going to comment that I remember watching a movie like this starring Tom Cruise. Lost my opportunity. snaps fingers I guess that was the low-hanging fruit, comedically speaking.

      So, I guess the next step is to V for Vendetta the UK, right? Let’s go! puts on Guy Fawkes mask

      8 votes
      1. [4]
        Greg
        Link Parent
        Oh we've got 28 Days Later, we've got Children of Men, we've even got the venerable Nineteen Eighty-Four - there's a veritable smorgasbord of all-too-plausible British dystopias to choose from!

        Oh we've got 28 Days Later, we've got Children of Men, we've even got the venerable Nineteen Eighty-Four - there's a veritable smorgasbord of all-too-plausible British dystopias to choose from!

        8 votes
        1. protium
          Link Parent
          The anime Psycho-Pass was my initial thought when reading this article. I think I've fully transition to the 'AI is a tool' train of thought, but I genuinely don't know if it's possible for it to...

          The anime Psycho-Pass was my initial thought when reading this article.

          I think I've fully transition to the 'AI is a tool' train of thought, but I genuinely don't know if it's possible for it to be as powerful as it is without being used to enact authoritarian control. If this gets any positive results it will be sold as some kind of panacea, and I fear the public at large does not have the technical knowledge to refute, or even care about it.

          9 votes
        2. crissequeira
          Link Parent
          Dang! That’s right! 28 Days Later was such a traumatizing watch for me. lol I sometimes want to watch it again, but I don’t think I could stomach it anymore. Funny that you mention Nineteen...

          Dang! That’s right! 28 Days Later was such a traumatizing watch for me. lol I sometimes want to watch it again, but I don’t think I could stomach it anymore.

          Funny that you mention Nineteen Eighty-Four. I only read it for the first time towards the end of last year, and kept thinking (as probably everybody else does): “But... this is exactly what the UK is like at the moment. What!?”

          5 votes
        3. DefinitelyNotAFae
          Link Parent
          We can come back to the US for a good old fashioned Hunger Games

          We can come back to the US for a good old fashioned Hunger Games

          5 votes
      2. [2]
        CptBluebear
        Link Parent
        I have another one! https://xkcd.com/1425/ Admittedly, the bird recognition joke is currently in the process of aging like milk, but the punchline about easy and impossible still holds!

        snaps fingers I guess that was the low-hanging fruit, comedically speaking.

        I have another one! https://xkcd.com/1425/

        Admittedly, the bird recognition joke is currently in the process of aging like milk, but the punchline about easy and impossible still holds!

        4 votes
        1. DeaconBlue
          Link Parent
          That comic was from 2014, the five year estimate was not far off.

          That comic was from 2014, the five year estimate was not far off.

          3 votes
  2. glesica
    Link
    Wait, don't tell me, lemme guess! It will vastly overestimate the odds of members of marginalized groups and immigrants committing crimes. At the very least because if it doesn't confirm existing...

    Wait, don't tell me, lemme guess! It will vastly overestimate the odds of members of marginalized groups and immigrants committing crimes. At the very least because if it doesn't confirm existing social biases then decision makers will assume it doesn't work. So instead of actually catching criminals, it will just result in more resources put toward rounding up "inconvenient" people. Lovely.

    23 votes
  3. [3]
    donn
    Link
    Legitimately what has been different about this Labour government? It's all the same Tory policies, same Tory austerity and the same Tory surveillance state. The party that was just annihilated...

    Legitimately what has been different about this Labour government? It's all the same Tory policies, same Tory austerity and the same Tory surveillance state. The party that was just annihilated last elections.

    Are they just setting the scene for Reform UK? Is that their job?

    10 votes
    1. Greg
      Link Parent
      Pretty much the only thing I'm thankful for with this government is that I've got reasonable confidence they won't go embracing Trumpism with open arms, and they haven't been co-opted by Russia....

      Pretty much the only thing I'm thankful for with this government is that I've got reasonable confidence they won't go embracing Trumpism with open arms, and they haven't been co-opted by Russia. Both of those would be a real risk with Tory infighting (and outright Truss-level stupidity) being pulled ever rightwards by Farage and his cronies.

      Which is effectively to say yeah, they're no better than Cameron-era Tories, and the closest I can get to a compliment for them is that the "mainstream" right has got so, so much worse by comparison.

      11 votes
    2. lynxy
      Link Parent
      Not to entirely defend the current regime, as they have their own particular brand of awfulness and ineffectiveness, but the article does state that this programme was initiated by the Prime...

      Not to entirely defend the current regime, as they have their own particular brand of awfulness and ineffectiveness, but the article does state that this programme was initiated by the Prime Minister's Office during Sunak's tenure.

      8 votes
  4. Fiachra
    Link
    Some obvious ways I see this playing out in practice: I steal a loaf of bread but the judge extends my three month sentence to ten years because the computer said I have an elevated chance of...

    Some obvious ways I see this playing out in practice:

    • I steal a loaf of bread but the judge extends my three month sentence to ten years because the computer said I have an elevated chance of killing someone prior to age 35

    • Visas get cancelled and people preemptively deported for murders we imagine they will commit someday

    • People notice that the prediction is based on your history of mental health care and stop seeking help for fear of being labelled a killer. Suicide rates increase and reporting plummets, making data much harder to collect and future policy decisions less informed

    8 votes
  5. PopeRigby
    Link
    Philip K. Dick should be required reading for anyone who wants to work with technology.

    Philip K. Dick should be required reading for anyone who wants to work with technology.

    5 votes
  6. Eji1700
    Link
    Yeah because that's not going to bias the courts at all.... I know UK courts are different but I feel like even with my minimal knowledge this is just another step away from the idea that people...

    Yeah because that's not going to bias the courts at all....

    I know UK courts are different but I feel like even with my minimal knowledge this is just another step away from the idea that people should actually be proven guilty, not just assumed.

    3 votes