glesica's recent activity

  1. Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech

    glesica
    Link Parent
    What you're saying here is that we should accept worse predictions in the interest of fairness. I would agree if prediction markets served some other social purpose, like commodities markets do....

    Well informed analysts can still drive much of the trading and have better insight into a prediction then the average person.

    What you're saying here is that we should accept worse predictions in the interest of fairness. I would agree if prediction markets served some other social purpose, like commodities markets do. But the literal only reason to have prediction markets is to predict the future, there's nothing else being risked, there's no other impact on the "real" economy. It's a literal casino, if they want to have rules, let them pay for the enforcement.

  2. Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk

    glesica
    Link Parent
    At this point, I'm not sure this is even crackpot. I mean, even the partial set of Epstein files that have been released pretty much prove it (maybe not the specific percentage, but the overall...

    I just think 10-20% of humans are born without the psychological barriers that regulate the rest of us, and they've been using that as a superpower to make the world their playground at our expense.

    At this point, I'm not sure this is even crackpot. I mean, even the partial set of Epstein files that have been released pretty much prove it (maybe not the specific percentage, but the overall gist).

    Edit: My friend and I talked about this a few months ago. One thought we had is that "primitive" societies sentenced these people to death (or banishment, same thing). Like, if you took more than your fair share in, say, an early Polynesian culture, I suspect you weren't going to last long. But today, we've actually designed a system that favors these personalities.

    5 votes
  3. Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk

    glesica
    Link Parent
    I used to listen to "Real Dictators", a podcast that chronicles the lives and times of dictators around the world and through history. Interesting stuff. One of the most interesting realizations I...

    The first person that a con man cons is himself into believing he’s justified in his shitty immoral behavior.

    I used to listen to "Real Dictators", a podcast that chronicles the lives and times of dictators around the world and through history. Interesting stuff. One of the most interesting realizations I had was just how many dictators seem to have genuinely believed that they were the only hope for their countries, even if they didn't start out like that, and even once things had gone off the rails.

    6 votes
  4. Comment on Introducing WebGPU support for llama.cpp in ~tech

    glesica
    Link
    This is pretty neat! I'm hopeful that we're moving toward a world where local models are the norm and remote models are mostly used for large, complex, or specialized tasks. I don't know how...

    This is pretty neat! I'm hopeful that we're moving toward a world where local models are the norm and remote models are mostly used for large, complex, or specialized tasks. I don't know how realistic that is, time will tell.

    4 votes
  5. Comment on Zoo CAD engine overview in ~engineering

    glesica
    Link Parent
    I've had a lot of success using OpenSCAD for designing gizmos to be 3D printed, but it's definitely got rough edges. If you try it, download the nightly build or whatever they call it, they...

    I've had a lot of success using OpenSCAD for designing gizmos to be 3D printed, but it's definitely got rough edges. If you try it, download the nightly build or whatever they call it, they haven't done an official release in YEARS so the release version is lacking a lot of features.

    3 votes
  6. Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech

    glesica
    Link Parent
    But the whole point of a "prediction market" is to make... predictions. You WANT insider trading if your goal is to predict the future, because people with "insider" knowledge push the market...

    and insider trading needs to be tightly regulated.

    But the whole point of a "prediction market" is to make... predictions. You WANT insider trading if your goal is to predict the future, because people with "insider" knowledge push the market toward correct predictions. The problem is that these aren't prediction markets any more, they're casinos, and there's too much money being risked.

    8 votes
  7. Comment on The Enhanced Games are Sunday. Here's what to know about the controversial event. in ~sports

    glesica
    Link Parent
    That's fair. I was mostly thinking of acute danger, like if there's a decent chance of the athlete just dropping dead in the middle of an event because of the PED. I don't know if there are any...

    That's fair. I was mostly thinking of acute danger, like if there's a decent chance of the athlete just dropping dead in the middle of an event because of the PED. I don't know if there are any actual substances in common use that have this property, but I can certainly imagine them existing (probably from watching a lot of dystopian movies or something).

    2 votes
  8. Comment on The Enhanced Games are Sunday. Here's what to know about the controversial event. in ~sports

    glesica
    Link Parent
    This is the only real argument for an athletic event where there is no drug testing, in my opinion. It's silly, but if basically everyone is already doping, then why keep up the charade of...

    Which specific PED, how it's used, and how they cover their tracks varies over time, but the reality is that on the world-stage there's a constant PED race.

    This is the only real argument for an athletic event where there is no drug testing, in my opinion. It's silly, but if basically everyone is already doping, then why keep up the charade of testing?

    I'm not sure that proudly declaring open season is the right way to handle it though, surely it would be possible to ban substances that are known to be dangerous and that can be reliably tested for.

    4 votes
  9. Comment on OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO in the coming weeks in ~finance

    glesica
    Link
    Cynical take, but I don't think an unrealistic one, is that they've gotta dump this on to the public markets before the bubble bursts. I'm not even a skeptic about the technology, it works, and...

    Cynical take, but I don't think an unrealistic one, is that they've gotta dump this on to the public markets before the bubble bursts. I'm not even a skeptic about the technology, it works, and it's useful (though certainly not for as many things as the hype machine would have us believe). But it's also overinflated and investors want their returns.

    28 votes
  10. Comment on Project Glasswing: what Mythos showed us in ~comp

    glesica
    Link Parent
    That's an interesting point. I do wonder if we're heading (back) to a world where developing software is rather expensive.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to find cybercrime insurance policies starting to put Mythos contracts as a requirement for getting said insurance.

    That's an interesting point.

    I do wonder if we're heading (back) to a world where developing software is rather expensive.

    2 votes
  11. Comment on Project Glasswing: what Mythos showed us in ~comp

    glesica
    Link Parent
    It's an interesting combination, that LLMs seem poised to both write most of the code, and also audit / exploit that code. So one LLM adds a new feature to library X, another LLM pulls the new...

    It's an interesting combination, that LLMs seem poised to both write most of the code, and also audit / exploit that code. So one LLM adds a new feature to library X, another LLM pulls the new version into product Y, and yet another LLM is watching and immediately attempts to exploit the change.

    I can't help but wonder if the software ecosystem is about to fundamentally change. Like, where are the costs going to fall? Is it on the library author to run a bug-finding model? Or on whoever pulls it into their project (in which case, that's a lot of duplication of effort)? Can the model writing the code self-audit, eventually, so it just doesn't write exploitable bugs?

    Crazy times.

    2 votes
  12. Comment on Electric ships are slowly starting to make sense in ~transport

    glesica
    Link Parent
    I would imagine that the benefit is also a bit less for cruise ships because there are so many things other than the engines that need power?

    I would imagine that the benefit is also a bit less for cruise ships because there are so many things other than the engines that need power?

    3 votes
  13. Comment on Introducing Googlebook, designed for Gemini Intelligence in ~tech

    glesica
    Link Parent
    I read an article once about how OS/2 added Windows compatibility and the thesis was that it actually expedited it's own downfall because 1) no one ported their software since people could already...

    I read an article once about how OS/2 added Windows compatibility and the thesis was that it actually expedited it's own downfall because 1) no one ported their software since people could already run it, and 2) people figured they might as well go with Windows since that's what the software was intended to run on. I thought that was pretty interesting. I'm not sure what the move is to gain traction other than paying everyone to port their software, but MS tried that (a bit) with Windows Phone and I assume it turned out to be too expensive (or they just got distracted, which MS tends to do).

  14. Comment on I think that we won’t see any new and radical new gaming input devices or form factors anymore in ~games

    glesica
    Link Parent
    Yeah, that's fair. I was thinking about how AR glasses are often marketed as kind of passive, always-running devices that helps out contextually. So, there would need to be a fair bit of...

    Yeah, that's fair. I was thinking about how AR glasses are often marketed as kind of passive, always-running devices that helps out contextually. So, there would need to be a fair bit of separation between the "game" and the normal stuff, because it would be super annoying to be walking down the street and suddenly there's a game thing happening in front of you.

  15. Comment on I think that we won’t see any new and radical new gaming input devices or form factors anymore in ~games

    glesica
    Link Parent
    Sounds like a recipe for neck pain. Or the solution to neck pain?! Now I'm intrigued and need to think about this...

    I'm expecting eye/head tracking to become prominent controls though.

    Sounds like a recipe for neck pain. Or the solution to neck pain?! Now I'm intrigued and need to think about this...

  16. Comment on I think that we won’t see any new and radical new gaming input devices or form factors anymore in ~games

    glesica
    Link Parent
    I completely agree with this, but it doesn't always turn out that people want games in all spaces. For example, Facebook "games" were huge very briefly, but then died. I suspect that people just...

    Games ultimately go where users are

    I completely agree with this, but it doesn't always turn out that people want games in all spaces. For example, Facebook "games" were huge very briefly, but then died. I suspect that people just didn't want "social" games bugging them all the time. I do wonder whether people will want games on a device that they wear all the time and rely on for daily life "stuff".

    2 votes
  17. Comment on Goldman Sachs flags Amazon and Alphabet for inflating S&P 500 earnings growth figures in ~finance

    glesica
    Link Parent
    That was always sort of the purpose behind Alphabet, as opposed to Google, IIRC. Alphabet was supposed to make bets "from A to Z" or something like that, one of which was Google itself, and Google...

    So apparently, Alphabet is becoming more like an investment firm now?

    That was always sort of the purpose behind Alphabet, as opposed to Google, IIRC. Alphabet was supposed to make bets "from A to Z" or something like that, one of which was Google itself, and Google would stick to building "stuff".

    1 vote
  18. Comment on Young people are falling behind, but not because of AI in ~finance

    glesica
    Link Parent
    I think this is the key. AI isn't a paradigm shift, it's just another tool that the owner class can use to reduce costs and thereby increase profits.

    I think this is the key. AI isn't a paradigm shift, it's just another tool that the owner class can use to reduce costs and thereby increase profits.

  19. Comment on Google Chrome silently installs a 4 GB AI model on your device without consent in ~tech

    glesica
    Link Parent
    That's fair. Actually, I recently tried to install World of Warcraft on my Windows machine (I haven't played in like 15 years, but a friend suggested I revisit it) and I literally didn't have...

    That's fair. Actually, I recently tried to install World of Warcraft on my Windows machine (I haven't played in like 15 years, but a friend suggested I revisit it) and I literally didn't have enough space.

    2 votes
  20. Comment on Google Chrome silently installs a 4 GB AI model on your device without consent in ~tech

    glesica
    Link Parent
    Do you not have 4GB of storage available, or do you just not like the idea of 4GB of data sitting there? Just curious. I understand that there are many people in the world for whom storage space...

    Do you not have 4GB of storage available, or do you just not like the idea of 4GB of data sitting there? Just curious. I understand that there are many people in the world for whom storage space is still a real constraint. On the other hand, my personal experience is that most of the people I interact with who complain about storage space are actually just kind of OCD about it, the kind of people who go spelunking in system directories to delete things they think they'll never use.

    5 votes