19
votes
Matt Levine's Money Stuff: Reddit plans to allow users to buy IPO shares, Nvidia share purchases and Three Arrows Capital [a collapsed crypto company]
Link information
This data is scraped automatically and may be incorrect.
- Title
- Bloomberg
- Word count
- 77 words
Just got the message on my very old reddit account:
I also got invited on my old account, anyone think this is worth riding for a pump and dump? Or is it just a sinking ship
if I were a betting man I'd short it. but I also don't think it's worth throwing money at in the slightest - T-bill yield is so high that almost nothing else makes sense.
Good looking out, I had forgotten about T-bills, just threw a good chunk of my savings in there for an 8 week.
1 month bills are pushing up against 5.5%. I honestly don't understand why anyone is buying anything other than CDs, bond backed funds, bonds themselves, or parking money in a high yield savings account.
Well people are always looking for a get rich quick scheme, and 5.5% is never going to do much more than just fight inflation. People are chasing those Nvidia/Apple/Tesla gains.
I got the same email. I'm curious what their "external DSP Administrator" will use as criteria for who gets in...
I just received mine too.
I'm not from the US so there's no way I can jump in but it would've been nice. Monetization and making your platform awful seems to do wonders for the stock price.
If there's truth to this, and 75.000 redditors (who and why that number?) get to buy the IPO, at least some of the "IPO bubble"-demand is taken off market. That's surely a risk both to institutional investors in the IPO and regular folks who want to get in early.
It's also a risk because you've got fewer institutional investors in it for the long term.
This reads like a move of desperation. Who of the owners today really want their money out of reddit?
I'm struggling to see other compelling reasons to IPO with interest rates being so high (and everyone predicting they'll go down), unless the investors really just don't think they can make the site profitable and the financial outlook is just getting worse day by day as the least-bad ideas don't work and the company moves onto successively worse ideas.
I mean Reddit have a lot of problems because they want to list, and they also host r/wallstreetbets, everyone's favourite weird stock manipulation/turning the stock market into a place for gambling kind of adventure. Odds are that extremely online Reddit-using meme stock investors will probably trade Reddit shares and chaos will ensue. I guess trying to get some of those people to buy Reddit stock in the IPO gives them a vested interest in doing weird and crazy things to make the stock go up, rather than down.
just want to push back on this, while everyone is predicting this the inflation numbers simply do not support it. I think higher rates are here to stay for a while, at least until inflation is actually under control. This might explain why they're making a move like this, maybe they (imo correctly) don't think rates are likely to drop in the next year and they're running low on money to burn.
They’re actually surprisingly cash flush if you read their s1. $1.2b in cash or cash equivalents and $(85)mm fcf.
I’d wager it has something to do with employee retention and their liquidity, something all private tech companies that offer stock as a major part of their comp has to deal with.
I'd have to look closer at their financial info but this seems very obviously like a bad time to IPO unless there's something forcing them to. And the whole 'letting random redditors invest in them before IPO' thing does really reek of desperation. It seems an awful lot like whoever is owning or running reddit wants to find bagholders.
Do you mean the goal is to transfer reddit employee stock to suckers and let those employees walk away with bigger paychecks? What do you think is forcing them to IPO now?
No, the goal is to prevent your employees from leaving en masse. Early employees have had a significant portion of their net worth locked up in illiquid assets and would very much like to have liquidity. Additionally, if they issue double trigger RSUs, like many private tech companies do, it's likely that the oldest batch are at risk of expiring. If word gets out that you let double trigger RSUs expire, that's a big blow for your ability to hire talent in the future.
To some extent trying to "time" your IPO is just as much folly as your average layperson trying to time the market. The process is so long that god knows what the market will look like by the time you actually IPO. Who says that things won't be worse in 6 months?
We can tell from their S-1 that they're not exactly in need of cash - they have very long runway, by all accounts, with $1.2b in cash or cash equivalents and a fairly low burn rate, at least relative to their cash pile.
I guess I'm confused by this because from google it seems to take 6-9 months to IPO in total which means they've probably only been planning this from some point last year. Did reddit operations staff get caught up in rate cut mania that hard?
Interesting, that makes a lot more sense. If they're likely to expire in the next year or two then they don't really have a choice.
Related news: Reddit files to list IPO on NYSE under the ticker RDDT
On TV they also added (to the best of my transcription abilities):
Net income for the quarter ending Dec 31st is $18+ million. ~$250 million in revenue over those 3 months. 73 million daily active unique users. 267.5 million weekly active unique users. The usual big banks are underwriting Reddit's IPO.
I mean I'm here for the ride, for me personally this promises a lot of entertainment value. Sometimes when the world is so absurd I think one has to laugh at it.
Headline got my attention, but the paywall stopped me from reading further.
I know Steve Huffman was considering this for a couple years now (talked to him when he was in Germany)… I’m surprised they are still considering this after the backlash recently. I don’t know if they’ll have another GameStop moment here, it’ll probably be the opposite.
This is an archive link.
If you are interested, you can sign up to receive it by email free of charge.
Why would they? If nothing else they likely would have issues with employee retention if they remained private.
I guess my 10yr old lurker account wasn’t enough to make the list.