22 votes

How a start-up utopia became a nightmare for Honduras: US investors are suing Honduras over special economic zones, and the dispute could bankrupt the country

23 comments

  1. [3]
    DefinitelyNotAFae
    Link
    This is one of those things funded by Thiel and Srinivasan isn't it? Srinivasan is the one with the whole weird "Greys shall run San Francisco and let's run the Blues out and take over the police...

    This is one of those things funded by Thiel and Srinivasan isn't it?

    Srinivasan is the one with the whole weird "Greys shall run San Francisco and let's run the Blues out and take over the police by offering their family kickbacks in the form of jobs" thing.

    Thiel just sucks and wants to do autonomous cities on the ocean and said (although he's apologized for) some really awful things about rape.

    Idk why I think this conservative libertarian utopia would suck.

    18 votes
    1. [2]
      boxer_dogs_dance
      Link Parent
      If you videogame at all, BioShock is a powerful immersive rebuttal to these guys

      If you videogame at all, BioShock is a powerful immersive rebuttal to these guys

      9 votes
      1. DefinitelyNotAFae
        Link Parent
        I do occasionally but haven't played it. I may try to when my computer is fixed.

        I do occasionally but haven't played it. I may try to when my computer is fixed.

  2. [8]
    Plik
    Link
    Surprising that SEZs lead to corruption and awful bullshit yet again in another developing economy.

    Surprising that SEZs lead to corruption and awful bullshit yet again in another developing economy.

    7 votes
    1. [7]
      Minori
      Link Parent
      They've been effectively leveraged by China, Mexico, and Vietnam. If officials are corrupt and just trying to defraud investors and the public, there are much easier ways than setting up special...

      They've been effectively leveraged by China, Mexico, and Vietnam. If officials are corrupt and just trying to defraud investors and the public, there are much easier ways than setting up special economic zones. I'm not convinced that they cause corruption.

      1 vote
      1. Fal
        Link Parent
        Don't forget the original SEZ: Ireland

        Don't forget the original SEZ: Ireland

        3 votes
      2. [5]
        Plik
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        They 100% do. A lot of the catfishing/pig butchering scams come out of Chinese call centers run out of these places where a variety of African and SE Asian nationals are human trafficked and...

        They 100% do. A lot of the catfishing/pig butchering scams come out of Chinese call centers run out of these places where a variety of African and SE Asian nationals are human trafficked and forced to scam people from their own countries in their native language or even other nationalities if they are from a country with decent English language proficiency (Philippines, Nigeria).

        You even have Indians who were probably doing the same thing previously in India (the guys Coffeezilla goes after), now doing it from within Chinese SEZs in Myanmar and Laos.

        The pay is good if you are part of the scam gang (i.e. not trafficked), ~3000 USD a month in countries where most people make maybe 80-500/month.

        Also drugs, this map kinda says it all:
        https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/prelaunch/6.3.3_Main_methamphetamine_trafficking_flows.pdf

        Bunch of links from a previous post of mine on the topic here:

        https://tildes.net/~misc/1im2/america_is_losing_southeast_asia_why_us_allies_in_the_region_are_turning_toward_china#comment-dkr9

        3 votes
        1. [2]
          Minori
          Link Parent
          Thanks for all the links. Perhaps surprisingly, I'm pretty familiar with the region and some of the problems. The human trafficking situation in Myanmar is fucked, but I still don't see what that...

          Thanks for all the links. Perhaps surprisingly, I'm pretty familiar with the region and some of the problems. The human trafficking situation in Myanmar is fucked, but I still don't see what that has to do with SEZs. For all intents and purposes, those regions are autonomously run by local gangs as you mention.

          Special economic zones have been used to great effect by less corrupt countries. Mexico, China, and Vietnam have used them to grow their industrial base and experiment with industrial policy in a controlled way. The basic idea is simply having some territories with unique rules and regulations. What's the alternative for development? China's predatory loans? Ignoring growth and accepting poor living standards?

          3 votes
          1. Plik
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            Yeah, I don't disagree with that, but "less corrupt" as a qualifier changes the situation drastically. When you have "more corrupt" things seem to usually go very badly. The alternative for...

            Yeah, I don't disagree with that, but "less corrupt" as a qualifier changes the situation drastically. When you have "more corrupt" things seem to usually go very badly.

            The alternative for development is basic healthcare, education, access to non-corrupt micro-finance, and social programs. Then you let people develop themselves. Capitalism alone as a cure for under-development isn't enough because ultimately capitalism is a greedy and selfish process, and if not controlled by decent laws like in the SEZs in Myanmar and Lao just leads to horrible human rights abuses.

            I agree that SEZs can work, but would argue that countries need to be more developed to begin with for this to happen, primarily because they come from a better bargaining position. How do they get there? Healthcare, education, finance, and social support...then capitalism.

            Edit: Mandatory apology for all the links 😅

            2 votes
        2. [2]
          skybrian
          Link Parent
          I’m guessing that what China does and what some American ideologues do are rather different. Seems like there are a lot of Chinese criminals that are pretty nasty? One day I hope to read a...

          I’m guessing that what China does and what some American ideologues do are rather different. Seems like there are a lot of Chinese criminals that are pretty nasty?

          One day I hope to read a in-depth article about what really happened at Prospera - how they screwed up, whether they learned anything from it.

          1 vote
          1. Plik
            Link Parent
            Could be, I don't know much about the American side of SEZs. I would assume it's probably negative for the locals, but not as negative. Usually it's stuff like imbalanced trade/loan agreements...

            Could be, I don't know much about the American side of SEZs. I would assume it's probably negative for the locals, but not as negative.

            Usually it's stuff like imbalanced trade/loan agreements that don't really help the local economy as much as they appear to on the surface, e.g:

            Water rights for bottled water that remove access to water for the locals, and in turn force them to pay more than they had to before because they have to buy said bottled water.

            Nestle and baby formula in Africa which resulted in "Many third-world mothers tried to save money by over-diluting the formula with contaminated water, leading to malnutrition and the deaths of millions of infants." (Kagi summarizer).

            Or ye olde, "we will do FDI, so you guys get money", and then extracting all profit from the country, creating burdensome infrastructure costs that end up not being covered by said FDI, and the only longterm gain is a few thousand local employees getting salary, while tens or hundreds of thousands have their lives affected by a giant MNC factory being suddenly built in their backyards.

            3 votes
  3. [10]
    skybrian
    Link
    I'm quite skeptical of this article. Some parts seem absurd: I don't believe it. Is that, like, what they could have theoretically bought under unrealistic assumptions? I wonder where someone at...

    I'm quite skeptical of this article. Some parts seem absurd:

    In 2021, the United Nations expressed strong concern over Honduran ZEDEs, stating that they posed a potential threat to human rights in Honduras. The U.N. estimated that ZEDEs could wind up controlling approximately 35 percent of the country’s territory.

    I don't believe it. Is that, like, what they could have theoretically bought under unrealistic assumptions? I wonder where someone at the UN got it from?

    I also don't believe the big headline number in the lawsuit means all that much. I mean, sure, they sued for that much; anyone could put anything in a lawsuit. But what are the chances of getting it?

    I suspect Próspera would settle for being able to continue using the land they already bought under their existing agreement.

    5 votes
    1. [9]
      ignorabimus
      Link Parent
      Investor-state dispute settlement can lead to really absurd outcomes which I think most people find deeply morally unpalatable. Unfortunately the system seems to operate with pretty limited...

      Investor-state dispute settlement can lead to really absurd outcomes which I think most people find deeply morally unpalatable. Unfortunately the system seems to operate with pretty limited scrutiny and basically anything that is in a contract seems to go (a problem given that many contracts – particularly for sovereign debt – are just copypasta boilerplate from earlier prospectuses which nobody reads).

      I actually wouldn't be surprised if "poor country gets fucked by international system" is the outcome, as has transpired (devastatingly) in so many other cases.

      9 votes
      1. [8]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        My understanding is that, in principle, having an international court is supposed to guard against investors getting screwed when there is a regime change and the new regime says, "that was then,...

        My understanding is that, in principle, having an international court is supposed to guard against investors getting screwed when there is a regime change and the new regime says, "that was then, this is now. We're just going to take your investments, and you can't do anything about it because we're the government."

        I think there is a case for debt forgiveness sometimes, but if there's nothing guarding against that sort of scenario then unstable countries might have trouble getting foreign investment? It's a problem the US doesn't have because a change in government doesn't result in previous contracts not being honored, but it is for less stable countries.

        The government backing out of a deal seems to be what's going on here? But people are more sympathetic with the government in this case, not because the investors are actually all that threatening (they don't seem very competent) but because they're weird outsiders. So they make up wild scenarios about how the weirdos might be threatening. One of things the weirdos seem pretty bad at is public relations.

        1 vote
        1. [7]
          DefinitelyNotAFae
          Link Parent
          The weirdos are among the richest men in the world. If they'd like to have better PR, they probably could manage it. Also you cannot PR your way out of advocating for fascism.

          The weirdos are among the richest men in the world. If they'd like to have better PR, they probably could manage it.

          Also you cannot PR your way out of advocating for fascism.

          7 votes
          1. [6]
            skybrian
            Link Parent
            The investors in a company are not necessarily the same people as company management. Having outside investors is a thing. There are sometimes disputes between investors and management. And they...

            The investors in a company are not necessarily the same people as company management. Having outside investors is a thing. There are sometimes disputes between investors and management. And they may very well disagree on all sorts of things unrelated to the company.

            Blurring the lines in this way is a common tactic people use when they don't care enough to understand what's going on and just feel like making wild accusations.

            1 vote
            1. [5]
              DefinitelyNotAFae
              Link Parent
              The weirdos that are the other weirdos' financial investors can pay for better PR. IMO the entire concept is rotten to start, and paying poor countries to make weird private city-states is not a...

              The weirdos that are the other weirdos' financial investors can pay for better PR. IMO the entire concept is rotten to start, and paying poor countries to make weird private city-states is not a social good. PR isn't the problem.

              (How was I supposed to know which set of weirdos you were referring to?)

              Blurring the lines in this way is a common tactic people use when they don't care enough to understand what's going on and just feel like making wild accusations.

              Also I'm not playing passive aggressive indirect language games here. If you think that I am doing a thing, please feel free to tell me. If you feel like some other people might maybe sometimes do a thing, please tell them.

              6 votes
              1. [4]
                skybrian
                Link Parent
                I disagree that the whole concept is "rotten to the core" and I think people making connections to Peter Thiel or Balaji Srinivasan is about as legitimate as when conservatives make connections...

                I disagree that the whole concept is "rotten to the core" and I think people making connections to Peter Thiel or Balaji Srinivasan is about as legitimate as when conservatives make connections from some nonprofit to George Soros and imply that it proves some kind of global conspiracy.

                Sure, they are investors. So what? What are you implying by making that link?

                1 vote
                1. [3]
                  DefinitelyNotAFae
                  Link Parent
                  I figured you disagreed. I find the base concept.- a privatized city state that operates on regulation only by choice, that privatizes all social services, that genuinely threatens the...

                  I disagree that the whole concept is "rotten to the core" and I think people making connections to Peter Thiel or Balaji Srinivasan is about as legitimate as when conservatives make connections from some nonprofit to George Soros and imply that it proves some kind of global conspiracy.

                  I figured you disagreed. I find the base concept.- a privatized city state that operates on regulation only by choice, that privatizes all social services, that genuinely threatens the sovereignity of the impoverished country it's based in, all of that is rotten. It's banana republics and manifest destiny all over again. I don't trust VCs and libertarian utopias to make ethical decisions for people. Governments don't always either but they're at least hypothetically accountable.

                  Their founder has talked about how great it will be to have any drug or medical device approved in any country available there. I see a few problems with having zero standard other than "any other country allows it" and if someone is harmed by a doctor there (licensed by whom, anyone?) they can do.... Arbitration. I'm sure pollution of the surrounding land will not be a problem.

                  And for the record, theres a difference between claiming George Soros pays X people and noting who the investors are. If George Soros actually invests in some sort of non-profit, he probably believes in what it's doing right? If I just pretended that Srinivasan and Thiel were major investors, I'd be doing what most of those conservatives are doing. I'm not saying their names like boogiemen, I'm saying I don't trust where they're putting their money. And I think interfering with the sovereignty of a country is bad whether it's my government doing it or a bunch of billionaires.

                  Sure, they are investors. So what? What are you implying by making that link?

                  Shitty people are financially supporting a shitty business. I'm being pretty specific at how bad I think a libertarian utopia concept is.

                  10 votes
                  1. [2]
                    skybrian
                    Link Parent
                    I'm skeptical about whether it will work but I just don't see it as much of a threat. Prospera is tiny! You could just walk out. And they're ideologically opposed to preventing people from...

                    I'm skeptical about whether it will work but I just don't see it as much of a threat. Prospera is tiny! You could just walk out. And they're ideologically opposed to preventing people from leaving.

                    I also wonder whether people having dodgy medical treatments (and they do seem pretty iffy) there is worse in practice than people going to Mexico or India to have things done more cheaply. I don't think the Mexican government is going to be of much help if your operation isn't a success?

                    I doubt pollution will be a problem because, again, the place is tiny. They'd be polluting themselves. And they don't seem to be doing any manufacturing?

                    3 votes
                    1. DefinitelyNotAFae
                      Link Parent
                      Sure it's not a threat to us, it is a threat to Honduras. But precedents about sovereign corporate city states are not something I'd like to see. As for voluntary, children are also impacted and...

                      Sure it's not a threat to us, it is a threat to Honduras. But precedents about sovereign corporate city states are not something I'd like to see.

                      As for voluntary, children are also impacted and they have zero control. And much like high deductible health insurance, low regulation is great until something goes wrong. "You can just leave" - or can the people they're employing? Especially if their land is annexed (legal by the ZEDE law, if theoretically disallowed in Prospera, will that last if there's no legal prohibition, just arbitration and some people with a lot more money than others? I mean they could just change their rules and tada it's fine.)

                      And I maintain the concept is bad, and so are all the other little "I'm building a utopia" things that many of the same VCs are investing in.

                      I'm philosophically and ethically opposed to these projects, at least as they're being proposed and implemented today. I can see a world of self selected citizenship, but if it's more Jennifer Government than METAtropolis, I am much less interested. So when I say they're funded by a guy that advocated for a fascist tech takeover of Silicon Valley, and I think they're rotten from the beginning, I'm not implying anything or unwilling to understand or making up bogeymen. Hang out with shitty people, expect the smell to spread.

                      10 votes
  4. skybrian
    Link
    Some background about other things going on in Honduras: Silicon Valley Investors Are Not Honduras' Biggest Problem ...

    Some background about other things going on in Honduras:

    Silicon Valley Investors Are Not Honduras' Biggest Problem

    The authors are keen to point out that the men who helped establish the ZEDE laws were very corrupt, coming to power in the wake of a 2009 coup. With the help of future President Hernández, President Porfirio Lobo oversaw a purge of Honduras’ courts to push through the ZEDE laws. Castro, the article suggests, is just trying to undo this antidemocratic legacy and recover losses incurred under a period of aberration in Honduras’ otherwise very democratic history. They fail to mention that Castro’s husband was the man that was removed in the coup, and that he was trying to rewrite the constitution to overstay his term limits.

    More importantly, Honduras is not just locked in a dispute with Silicon Valley billionaires, as the authors would lead you to believe. Other claimants against Honduras at the International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) include the Paiz family, one of the wealthiest in Guatemala, the U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase, and others from Honduras, Panama, Mexico, Chile, Norway, and the Caymans. More claims were brought by private energy companies after Castro’s 2022 reforms pushed out private investment to expand the state’s role in electricity production. Predictably, there are no signs of progress for Honduras’ crippled energy grid. The state-run National Electric Energy Company loses over $30 million every month, with debts amounting to more than 10 percent of Honduran GDP.

    This is to say that Honduras’ current feud with Próspera is part of a pattern of reneging on obligations to investors and expanding state influence, not a one-time rectification of a coup by Silicon Valley billionaires.

    ...

    Castro has more recently ended Honduras’ decades-old extradition agreement with the US, claiming that a plot is being hatched against her government over criticism of her hostility to business from the US embassy. Not surprisingly, there is quite compelling evidence that Castro, like her predecessor, has ties to drug traffickers: Her brother-in-law is shown on video entertaining $650,000 in bribes from a cartel for her presidential campaign. To be clear, narco-governance in Honduras is an entrenched bipartisan phenomenon, not the exclusive domain of the prior Próspera-friendly president.

    So contrary to the author’s claims that US government support for Próspera’s legal action is what is hindering a stable and democratic Honduras, socialist narco-governance appears to be the much bigger impediment, both to stable democracy and economic prosperity. The best solution to the current lawsuit would be for the Honduran government to reinstate Próspera’s legal autonomy, not for the US government to oppose its own investors. Sadly, whether or not the US changes its posture toward the Próspera lawsuit, Honduras’ drift toward Venezuelization under Castro looks inevitable in light of the full scope of investor disputes.

    1 vote