8 votes

Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of August 30

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Tags: ask.survey, recurring.weekly, coronaviruses.covid19, coronavirus

This thread is posted weekly, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!

11 comments

  1. [2]
    AugustusFerdinand
    Link
    Who wants to see a uniquely American and simultaneously Onion-y headline? Oklahoma's ERs are so backed up with people overdosing on ivermectin that gunshot victims are having to wait to be treated
    Who wants to see a uniquely American and simultaneously Onion-y headline?

    Oklahoma's ERs are so backed up with people overdosing on ivermectin that gunshot victims are having to wait to be treated

    9 votes
    1. HotPants
      Link Parent
      I actually checked, because I had a hard time believing this one... While Ivermectin horse paste is sold out online, the Ivermectin dog chews are still available...

      I actually checked, because I had a hard time believing this one...

      While Ivermectin horse paste is sold out online, the Ivermectin dog chews are still available...

      5 votes
  2. [3]
    kfwyre
    Link
    Child Covid-19 hospitalizations in the United States reach a new high Schools aren't even fully reopened yet nationwide (many districts start after Labor Day), so I fear this is only going to get...

    Child Covid-19 hospitalizations in the United States reach a new high

    Between August 20 and 26, an average of 330 children were admitted to hospitals every day with Covid-19, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    That's the highest rate of new Covid-19 hospitalizations among children in more than a year -- a record that was broken several times in August, according to CDC data.

    Schools aren't even fully reopened yet nationwide (many districts start after Labor Day), so I fear this is only going to get worse.

    7 votes
    1. kfwyre
      Link Parent
      Child COVID-19 cases accounted for 22.4% of weekly U.S. cases as kids return to school

      Child COVID-19 cases accounted for 22.4% of weekly U.S. cases as kids return to school

      While child COVID-19 cases declined in early summer, they have "increased exponentially," with more than a five-fold increase the past month, according to the academy. The U.S. saw child cases go from about 38,000 the week ending July 22 to more than 200,000 the past week.

      The rate of child COVID-19 cases last week was well above the average throughout the pandemic. Since the pandemic began, children represented 14.8% of total cumulated cases. In total, 4.8 million children have tested positive for COVID-19, and new variants are posting a higher risk for children, most of whom are not yet eligible for the COVID-19 vaccines.

      7 votes
    2. Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      I was on campus today for like the 5th time ever. It's the 2nd day of classes, and there are people everywhere. There's a part of my brain that is just deliriously happy to be around people,...

      I was on campus today for like the 5th time ever. It's the 2nd day of classes, and there are people everywhere. There's a part of my brain that is just deliriously happy to be around people, walking around on a nice sunny day. I then become hyper-aware of other people when I step inside of a building where masks are required at all times. Fortunately my office has only my 1 coworker in it, and has a large amount of empty space in it. And students don't really come through there at all.

      4 votes
  3. [2]
    skybrian
    Link
    Rogue antibodies involved in almost one-fifth of COVID deaths […]

    Rogue antibodies involved in almost one-fifth of COVID deaths

    The international research team focused on detecting autoantibodies that could neutralize lower, more physiologically relevant concentrations of interferons. They studied 3,595 patients from 38 countries with critical COVID-19, meaning that the individuals were ill enough to be admitted to an intensive-care unit. Overall, 13.6% of these patients possessed autoantibodies, with the proportion ranging from 9.6% of those below the age of 40, up to 21% of those over 80. Autoantibodies were also present in 18% of people who had died of the disease.

    […]

    To examine this link further, the researchers hunted for autoantibodies in a massive collection of blood samples taken from almost 35,000 healthy people prior to the pandemic. They found that 0.18% of those between 18 and 69 had existing autoantibodies against type 1 interferon, and that this proportion increased with age: autoantibodies were present in around 1.1% of 70- to 79-year-olds, and 3.4% of those over the age of 80.

    6 votes
    1. balooga
      Link Parent
      Woah, that is fascinating. How easy would it be to screen people for the presence of these autoantibodies now, while they are healthy, as a means of better estimating their own potential covid risks?

      Woah, that is fascinating. How easy would it be to screen people for the presence of these autoantibodies now, while they are healthy, as a means of better estimating their own potential covid risks?

      3 votes
  4. [2]
    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    The Impact of Mask Distribution and Promotion on Mask Uptake and COVID-19 in Bangladesh From the summary: Emphasis added. There is more context in on the summary page and the full paper is here...

    The Impact of Mask Distribution and Promotion on Mask Uptake and COVID-19 in Bangladesh

    From the summary:

    In Bangladesh, researchers and IPA partnered with Bangladeshi policymakers and a local NGO to design and evaluate various strategies to increase mask-wearing and assess the impact of community mask-wearing on SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. They found that a four-part intervention (the “NORM model”) tripled mask usage (a 29- percentage-point increase), and increased physical distancing by 5 percentage points. Further, this increase in mask-wearing reduced symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. When surgical masks were employed, 1 in 3 symptomatic infections were avoided for individuals 60+ years old, the age group that faces the highest risk of death following infection. This was the first large-scale randomized evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of masks in a real-world setting.

    Emphasis added. There is more context in on the summary page and the full paper is here

    (Funded by GiveWell, my favorite charity evaluator.)

    5 votes
    1. skybrian
      Link Parent
      I don’t follow the statistics, but here are some doubts about this study: Effect size is significantly more important than statistical significance […]

      I don’t follow the statistics, but here are some doubts about this study:

      Effect size is significantly more important than statistical significance

      Rather than providing all of this statistical analysis, why not report the unadjusted counts of positive individuals for the reader to interpret? Especially considering that symptoms were reported precisely down to the person.

      […]

      Unfortunately, of course, most effect sizes are not factor of 20. Indeed, they are usually less than a factor of 2. As we saw in the mask study, the effect size was less than a factor of 1.1. I’m picking on the mask study only because it has been so attention grabbing. It’s a convenient example to illustrate how statistical modeling can muddy the waters in randomized control trials. But it is only one of many examples I’ve come across in the past few months. If you pick a random paper out of the New England Journal of Medicine or the American Economic Review, you will likely find similar statistical muddiness.

  5. skybrian
    Link
    Biden's top-down booster plan sparks anger at FDA […] […]

    Biden's top-down booster plan sparks anger at FDA

    On Tuesday, two top FDA vaccine regulators resigned — a decision that one former official said was rooted in anger over the agency’s lack of autonomy in the booster planning so far. A current health official said the pair, Marion Gruber and Philip Krause, left over differences with FDA’s top vaccine official Peter Marks. Now the agency is facing a potential mutiny among its staff and outside vaccine advisers, several of whom feel cut out of key decisions and who view the plan to offer boosters to all adults as premature and unnecessary.

    POLITICO spoke to 11 current and former health officials and people familiar with the matter who described growing exasperation with the administration's disjointed process for implementing its booster plan. Those sources said there is little coordination between federal health agencies, even as two top FDA officials try to guide the rollout.

    […]

    Woodcock and Marks were instrumental in crafting an Aug. 18 statement from HHS officials on the Sept. 20 booster timeline, said one senior official. That person said that the timeline was informed in part by Woodcock and Marks’ estimation of when they would get key data from vaccine makers, but also could shift based on new data, echoing the joint statement.

    Another senior health official with direct knowledge of the situation said that political appointees within the White House largely steered the mid-August booster announcement.

    […]

    While third doses are still only authorized for immunocompromised people, including organ-transplant patients, others who don't fit into that category have plunged ahead with additional vaccinations under the mistaken notion that FDA has already given the greenlight. Nearly one million booster doses have already been administered in the U.S. according to the latest CDC data.

    “Many, many, many” providers in southern states with coronavirus case surges are dosing health care workers and patients with boosters absent an FDA approval because of confusion over Biden booster remarks, said Helen Talbot, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University and member of CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, the panel that recommends how vaccines are used.

    2 votes