Okay like... It's fine to be concerned about the new variant, but this article feels a bit like fear mongering and a whole lot of meaningless words. We know it's more contagious, but the main...
Okay like... It's fine to be concerned about the new variant, but this article feels a bit like fear mongering and a whole lot of meaningless words. We know it's more contagious, but the main concern within the scientific community is vaccine efficacy which turned out it doesn't effect it.
I get that they want more people to be concerned or at least have a heightened awareness, but with the restrictions already in place in the US and the flagrant ignoring of that, I genuinely don't think there's much we can do. The case here in CO was in butt fuck no where county. People there who don't care for restrictions aren't going to care more because of a variant. Unless this shit starts killing more people and more groups, people probably won't change their behaviors (and even if it did, I'm still skeptical people might change).
A better article should've gone over more objectively how the new variant will affect spreading and compare models of infection rates with and without the variants but instead they're like "oh so there's nothing to worry about right? Wrong!" and then say substantially nothing immediately after that. This was probably longer than it needed to be and is a bit click baity and fear mongering.
This variant being more contagious is itself a huge problem. It’s a race to vaccinate enough people before things get even worse. Unfortunately the FDA is being obstinate about making changes to...
This variant being more contagious is itself a huge problem. It’s a race to vaccinate enough people before things get even worse. Unfortunately the FDA is being obstinate about making changes to speed things up.
I agree that it seems unlikely that people will change behavior much, in the US at the population level. A problem is that the variant can’t be distinguished from the other COVID infections with usual COVID tests, which means we only have spotty reports of its spread. It’s unlikely that we will see much difference other than another wave of infections, eventually. I sometimes wonder what role this new variant has in the increase we’ve already seen.
Given the uncertainty and lack of data I think you’re overestimating what modeling can be done. But, the basic idea is that exponential growth is expected, and if you want a bit more math (from a non-expert) you could try this blog post.
The only thing I can think of that might make a dent in the general public is video of overflowing hospital wards and the dead stacking up in trucks and morgues. That lovely moment in time when...
The only thing I can think of that might make a dent in the general public is video of overflowing hospital wards and the dead stacking up in trucks and morgues. That lovely moment in time when the nurses are putting a red X in marker on the heads of those they have to let die to save those with a better chance at survival. Cali's already started.
What worries me the most about the new variant (other than the big boost to its transmission) is that it appears to affect younger people. There's no hard studies on this yet but they will be...
What worries me the most about the new variant (other than the big boost to its transmission) is that it appears to affect younger people. There's no hard studies on this yet but they will be coming soon and that's something to watch for. These newer strains are more aggressive in how they target the lungs and latch on. That improvement may be enough to let them tangle with a young person's immune system on even footing, and that could put young people at or near the same risk level as old people for the first time during this pandemic.
If kids and 20-somethings lose the immune advantage granted by their youth-based superpowers this pandemic gets a lot more serious.
That 'less severe' bit is what may be going away. Young people may end up in the same general boat as 60-somethings if this stuff gets that good at latching on to lung tissue. That includes...
That 'less severe' bit is what may be going away. Young people may end up in the same general boat as 60-somethings if this stuff gets that good at latching on to lung tissue. That includes children, too - and that's a serious problem, if this threat materializes.
"Restrictions" is heavily dependent on where you're from. I certainly wasn't making any national statements and should have clarified that point. But I 100% agree with you. It's hard for people to...
"Restrictions" is heavily dependent on where you're from. I certainly wasn't making any national statements and should have clarified that point. But I 100% agree with you. It's hard for people to convince when the ones they elected/are looking to for leadership don't do Jack shit. But, at the same time, these people have been easily convinced and are ignoring all the evidence that tells them certain procedures help. It's an unfortunate thing that's feeding off of itself and isn't helping anyone.
Okay like... It's fine to be concerned about the new variant, but this article feels a bit like fear mongering and a whole lot of meaningless words. We know it's more contagious, but the main concern within the scientific community is vaccine efficacy which turned out it doesn't effect it.
I get that they want more people to be concerned or at least have a heightened awareness, but with the restrictions already in place in the US and the flagrant ignoring of that, I genuinely don't think there's much we can do. The case here in CO was in butt fuck no where county. People there who don't care for restrictions aren't going to care more because of a variant. Unless this shit starts killing more people and more groups, people probably won't change their behaviors (and even if it did, I'm still skeptical people might change).
A better article should've gone over more objectively how the new variant will affect spreading and compare models of infection rates with and without the variants but instead they're like "oh so there's nothing to worry about right? Wrong!" and then say substantially nothing immediately after that. This was probably longer than it needed to be and is a bit click baity and fear mongering.
This variant being more contagious is itself a huge problem. It’s a race to vaccinate enough people before things get even worse. Unfortunately the FDA is being obstinate about making changes to speed things up.
I agree that it seems unlikely that people will change behavior much, in the US at the population level. A problem is that the variant can’t be distinguished from the other COVID infections with usual COVID tests, which means we only have spotty reports of its spread. It’s unlikely that we will see much difference other than another wave of infections, eventually. I sometimes wonder what role this new variant has in the increase we’ve already seen.
Given the uncertainty and lack of data I think you’re overestimating what modeling can be done. But, the basic idea is that exponential growth is expected, and if you want a bit more math (from a non-expert) you could try this blog post.
The only thing I can think of that might make a dent in the general public is video of overflowing hospital wards and the dead stacking up in trucks and morgues. That lovely moment in time when the nurses are putting a red X in marker on the heads of those they have to let die to save those with a better chance at survival. Cali's already started.
What worries me the most about the new variant (other than the big boost to its transmission) is that it appears to affect younger people. There's no hard studies on this yet but they will be coming soon and that's something to watch for. These newer strains are more aggressive in how they target the lungs and latch on. That improvement may be enough to let them tangle with a young person's immune system on even footing, and that could put young people at or near the same risk level as old people for the first time during this pandemic.
If kids and 20-somethings lose the immune advantage granted by their youth-based superpowers this pandemic gets a lot more serious.
That 'less severe' bit is what may be going away. Young people may end up in the same general boat as 60-somethings if this stuff gets that good at latching on to lung tissue. That includes children, too - and that's a serious problem, if this threat materializes.
"Restrictions" is heavily dependent on where you're from. I certainly wasn't making any national statements and should have clarified that point. But I 100% agree with you. It's hard for people to convince when the ones they elected/are looking to for leadership don't do Jack shit. But, at the same time, these people have been easily convinced and are ignoring all the evidence that tells them certain procedures help. It's an unfortunate thing that's feeding off of itself and isn't helping anyone.