Final 2023 Golden Globes predictions
Golden Globe nominations come out mid-December. I don’t really see anything changing from here to the end of the year. The only movies left to premiere are Avatar and Babylon. Both of which are almost guaranteed to be good, at the very least. And Avatar is guaranteed to be a huge hit.
Here are my previous predictions for the Globes, and it’s crazy how much things have changed.
The Globes usually have a couple of weird choices and I don’t think many of these will end up with Oscar nominations.
But here’s where I think the winds are blowing.
Motion Picture - Drama:
- The Fabelmans
- Women Talking
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Top Gun: Maverick
- TÁR
Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy:
- Babylon
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Spirited
Director:
- Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
- Damien Chazelle - Babylon
- James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
- Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Sarah Polley - Women Talking
Screenplay:
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Babylon
- The Fabelmans
- Women Talking
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
Lead Actor - Drama:
- Brendan Fraser - The Whale
- Austin Butler - Elvis
- Bill Nighy - Living
- Gabriel LaBelle - The Fabelmans
- Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick
Lead Actress - Drama:
- Danielle Deadwyler - Till
- Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
- Cate Blanchett - TÁR
- Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
- Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway
Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy:
- Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Diego Calva - Babylon
- Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Will Ferrell - Spirited
- George Clooney - Ticket to Paradise
Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy:
- Margot Robbie - Babylon
- Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Julia Roberts - Ticket to Paradise
- Sandra Bullock - The Lost City
- Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Supporting Actor:
- Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brad Pitt - Babylon
- Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
- Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse
Supporting Actress:
- Jean Smart - Babylon
- Claire Foy - Women Talking
- Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Hong Chau - The Whale
Original Score:
- The Fabelmans
- Babylon
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Women Talking
- Pinocchio
Original Song:
- “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
- “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
- “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
- “Do A Little Good" from Spirited
Animated Feature
- Pinocchio
- Turning Red
- Strange World
- My Father’s Dragon
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
@cloud_loud, have you actually watched all these movies, and are basing your predictions on your own personal opinions on each, or are you basing all this on meta knowledge of some sort? I'd be curious to hear about your process, if the latter.
I have seen: Top Gun, TAR, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Spirited (which was the Regal Monday Mystery Movie). I’ve also seen Elvis and Ticket to Paradise.
But I’m not basing it on my opinion of the films, otherwise EEAAO probably wouldn’t be on there.
I’ll go through the process of each film:
The Fabelmans won People’s Choice, winning that award is an automatic guarantee of getting nominated at the Oscar’s and by consequence also the Globes. Not that it needed that win, it’s Spielberg’s autobiographical movie after all.
Women Talking was runner-up at TIFF, and got enough critical acclaim to warrant awards attention. It’s also about an important subject matter and is MGM/Amazon’s priority for the season. I think it gets a Director nomination at least at the Globe’s since the Globe’s are trying to reform themselves and part of that reform involves nominating more women in the Director category.
Avatar: The Way of Water is the follow-up to Avatar which was a huge awards success and won the Golden Globe for Drama and Director.
Top Gun: Maverick is the movie of the year. It made so much money and was loved by everyone. It is the talk of the town. Once upon a time they wouldn’t have nominated it (they didn’t nominate The Dark Knight), but since then they’ve nominated Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road. So they’re more open to nominating genre films now.
TÁR is the most critically acclaimed film of the year. The HFPA usually likes having a serious drama like it. Very euro-esque. Like Foxcatcher or The Father. Plus it’ll make them seem smart.
Babylon is a huge film, it’s the type of thing that gets a lot of awards attention. Star studded, Academy Award winner as writer/director, about Hollywood, period piece. It’s Wolf of Wall Street meets Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It’s gonna be great.
The Banshees of Inisherin got a lot of acclaim from its premiere at Venice and ended up winning the Actor Prize for Colin Farrell and the Screenplay prize. Also, McDonagh is an Academy Award nominee and Searchlight, an awards juggernaut, is going to be prioritizing the film.
Everything Everywhere All At Once got rave reviews out of it’s SXSW premiere. It has the highest per-theater average opening of the year. And it legged out very well. It had incredible word-of-mouth, and people in the industry really responded to it. They would not stop posting about it. It’s this year’s Get Out, essentially.
Glass Onion is a sequel to Knives Out which was nominated three years ago at the Golden Globes. It premiered at TIFF to rave reviews. It managed to be the second runner-up, even when the first Knives Out didn’t place. It’s the first of its kind to place at TIFF. And thanks to other Netflix films underwhelming, Glass Onion is now Netflix’s priority for the season.
Spirited is a live-action musical with movie stars. The HFPA usually has a token musical in the category (and last year they had a lot to choose from). But this year, there aren’t any musicals besides this one. It’s a crowd-pleaser, I saw it in an almost packed theater and the audience really responded to it. It’s like The Greatest Showman, not great but fun escapism for people.
Elvis was a hit and Austin Butler got praise for his performance by both critics and people in the industry. The Whale has tremendous audience scores and Fraser has both a narrative and a lot of passion.
I could go on movie by movie, or if you have any questions I could answer them.
Ah, okay. Interesting. Thanks for the insight! One more (compound) question, if you don't mind... Do you do this just for fun, are you in the industry, or is there something like sports betting but for film awards that also incentivizes you to come up with these lists?
Sports betting websites for awards exist. I have not been brave enough to do that yet (though I kind of wish I put a bet down for CODA winning Best Picture). I do use a website called GoldDerby, and they offer points and leadboards and all that specifically for awards.
But yeah, it’s fun. I got into movies when I was a young teenager in high school. I started getting interested in the Oscar’s during that time as well, that was a way for me to watch movies I wouldn’t have known about otherwise (say Her or Nebraska). I started trying to predict this stuff about five years ago, when I started learning about other awards that lead up to the Oscar’s.
I wish I was in the industry. I’ve been trying/hoping to get in but nothing yet.
Heh, I guess I shouldn't be surprised there are places to gamble on awards, for those interested. Avoiding things like that isn't about lack of bravery though, at least for me, but rather self-preservation. ;)
And while I don't really follow the awards much, or the lead up to them, I do have pretty pretentious/arthousy taste in movies, and so still check out the nomination/winners lists occasionally for things to watch too. So I appreciate your lists for the same reason as well. Thanks for taking the time to share them here. :)