Picture: One Battle After Another

This became a tight race with Sinners late in the game. The obvious parallel here is 1917 and Parasite. 1917 won PGA, DGA, and BAFTA just like OBAA did. Parasite won SAG Ensemble and went on to win Picture from there.

I’m betting on OBAA being stronger than 1917. Notably 1917 was never in contention to win a Screenplay or an Acting award the way OBAA is. And OBAA is nominated in Film Editing and the front-runner in that category which 1917 missed.

I have correctly predicted every Picture winner since The Shape of Water but this is the first year where I’m in danger of losing that streak.

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another

Whether Sinners ends up winning Picture, I think this goes to PTA regardless.

Original Screenplay: Sinners

Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another

Lead Actor: Michael B. Jordan - Sinners

After Chalamet shot himself in the foot with his unorthodox press run for Marty Supreme, Jordan is the only one in the category going in with an industry award as the BAFTA awarded a British actor.

I think Chalamet really fucked up his chances to win for a while and will now win well into his 40s or even into his 50s. He should have played it better.

Lead Actress: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan - Weapons

After winning SAG it seems like it’s heading that way. Mosaku won the BAFTA but she had a homefield advantage. This is also an opportunity to award a veteran actress who never got her due, and will be supported by young people who enjoyed Weapons.

Supporting Actor: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another

Despite not campaigning and not appearing at the majority of the award shows (or perhaps because of that) Penn ended up winning both the SAG and BAFTA. Essentially sleepwalking to his third Oscar.

Original Score: Sinners

Original Song: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters

Sound: F1

Casting: Sinners

Production Design: Frankenstein

Cinematography: One Battle After Another

Sinners was originally the front-runner and would have made history as the first female cinematographer to win. However it lost both the ASC and BAFTA for Cinematography.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein

Costume Design: Frankenstein

Film Editing: One Battle After Another

Sinners won the ACE Drama awards and OBAA won the ACE Comedy award. This category used to be correlated with Sound but since the sound categories were merged it has now correlated with Picture.

VFX: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters

Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor

International Feature: Sentimental Value

Picture:

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Odyssey
5. The Social Reckoning
6. Fjord
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
9. The Entertainment System is Down
10. All of a Sudden

Director:

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Digger
2. Martin McDonagh - Wild Horse Nine
3. Ruyuski Hamaguchi - All of a Sudden
4. Tom Ford - Cry to Heaven
5. Ruben Ostlund - The Entertainment System is Down

Original Screenplay:

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. No One Cares
5. The Entertainment System is Down

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Project Hail Mary
2. The Social Reckoning
3. Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
4. All of a Sudden
5. Cry to Heaven

Lead Actor:

1. Tom Cruise - Digger
2. Sebastian Stan - Fjord
3. Nicolas Hoult - Cry to Heaven
4. Ryan Gosling - Project Hail Mary
5. Sam Rockwell - Wild Horse Nine

Lead Actress:

1. Renate Reinsve - Fjord
2. Kirsten Dusnt - The Entertainment System is Down
3. Sandra Huller - 1949
4. Mikey Madison - The Social Reckoning
5. Juliann Moore - No One Cares

Supporting Actor:

1. Mark Ruffalo - Being Heumann
2. Steve Buscemi - Wild Horse Nine
3. Jesse Plemmons - Digger
4. Aaron Taylor Johnson - Cry to Heaven
5. Colman Domingo - Michael

Supporting Actress:

1. Parker Posey - Wild Horse Nine
2. Adele - Cry to Heaven
3. Sandra Huller - Digger
4. Giuliani Nahmany - Fjord
5. Samantha Morton - The Entertainment System is Down

No one’s sure if The Entertainment System is Down is coming out this year, Ostlund decided to skip Cannes so it could be set for a 2027 Cannes premiere or he could skip the festival entirely. He’s won two Palmes for The Square and Triangle of Sadnes.

Cry to Heaven seems to be a big contender everyone has pegged. I was initially against it because Anne Rice + Tom Ford seems too campy for the Academy but I also felt that way early on about Conclave and Hamnet and the people initially hyping it up were right. Plus I love Adele so I will be stanning that.

Don’t think Dune 3 is happening because it’s got the been there done that problem. Part two got less nominations than Part one despite having better critical reception and higher box office. Avatar Fire and Ash dropped off from Way of Water so I’m assuming the same sci fi trilogy trajectory here.

Picture

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Sentimental Value
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein
• Train Dreams
• Bugonia
• F1
• The Secret Agent

Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler - Sinners
• Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
• Guillermo del Toro - Frankenstein

Original Screenplay

• Sinners
• Sentimental Value
• Marty Supreme
• Weapons
• The Secret Agent

Adapted Screenplay

• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Train Dreams

Lead Actress

• Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
• Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
• Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another
• Emma Stone - Bugonia

Lead Actor

• Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
• Michael B Jordan - Sinners
• Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
• Jesse Plemons - Bugonia

Supporting Actress

• Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
• Amy Madigan - Weapons
• Odessa A'zion - Marty Supreme
• Wumni Mosaku - Sinners
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value

Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
• Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
• Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
• Paul Mescal - Hamnet

Casting

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein

Cinematography

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• Train Dreams

Costume Design

• Frankenstein
• Sinners
• Wicked: For Good
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme

Film Editing

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Marty Supreme
• F1
• Frankenstein

Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein
• Wicked: For Good
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• One Battle After Another

Production Design

• Frankenstein
• Wicked: For Good
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme

Original Score

• Sinners
• One Battle After Another
• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• F1

Original Song

• "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters
• "I Lied To You" from Sinners
• "The Girl in the Bubble" from Wicked: For Good
• "Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless
• "Drive" from F1

Sound

• F1
• Sinners
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• One Battle After Another
• Frankenstein

Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Frankenstein
• Superman
• F1
• The Lost Bus

Animated Feature

• KPop Demon Hunters
• Zootopia 2
• Arco
• Elio
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

Documentary Feature

• The Perfect Neighbor
• 2000 Meters to Andriivka
• The Alabama Solution
• Cover-Up
• Apocalypse in the Tropics

International Film

• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• It Was Just an Accident
• No Other Choice
• Sirat

Picture: Anora

This is more of a fluid race than we have been used to this decade so far. Conclave could win here. PGA is the only guild that uses the voting system the Oscar's does, and Anora won there. However, Conclave won SAG Ensemble and is guaranteed a screenplay win and that's all that Spotlight needed to win in a fractured field.

Director: Sean Baker - Anora

Again, director was split at this year's BAFTA and DGA. With Corbet (Brutalist) winning the former and Baker winning the latter. DGA has determined the race most of the time when the category is split like this.

Original Screenplay: Anora written by Sean Baker

It won WGA, and it's closest competition would be A Real Pain which did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Had The Substance won Original Screenplay in BAFTA this would be more in jeopardy.

Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Screenplay by Peter Straughan. Based on the novel by Robert Harris.

Swept.

Lead Actor: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

I'm going with the SAG four. SAG and BAFTA have alternated these past few years and the Academy went with all the BAFTA winners last year (which is how Stone beat Gladstone). So I'm sticking with this pattern and saying Chalamet beats Brody. (fun fact: Chalamet would be the youngest winner in this category, Adrian Brody currently holds that title for his performance in The Pianist).

Lead Actress: Demi Moore - The Substance

Again, SAG. I think Moore has the narrative unlike Mikey Madison who is her closest competition.

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Swept.

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Swept.

Cinematography: The Brutalist

It won the BAFTA. Maria and Nosferatu are the only other films with wins but they're not Picture nominees and the winner in this category is usually a Picture nominee.

Original Score: The Brutalist

Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez

Costume Design: Wicked

Production Design: Wicked

Hair and Make-up: The Substance

VFX: Dune: Part Two

Sound: Dune: Part Two

BAFTA and CAS split here, with CAS going with A Complete Unknown. ACU just doesn't make much sense as a Sound winner to me. La La Land couldn't even win a sound award so I'm sticking with the bombastic sound here.

Film Editing: Conclave

Again, not a clear winner here. Conclave won BAFTA and the editors guild will announce winners after the Oscar ceremony. There used to be a correlation in this category with Sound, but since the merging of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into one category this correlation has gotten weaker. EEAAO won here without a Sound nomination, and Oppenheimer won here despite losing Sound to Zone of Interest.

International Feature: Emilia Perez

Some people seem to think that I'm Still Here will win here due to the controversies surrounding Emilia Perez. It's clear that those controversies did not affect Saldana's chances so I don't see why it would ruin them here.

Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Another split category. The Golden Globes went with Flow while the BAFTA's went with Wallace and Gromit. When the category is this split it goes to the PGA winner (Toy Story 4 won here having only won PGA).

Documentary Feature: No Other Land

I don't know much about this category, but this documentary has drummed up quite a bit of buzz. So I'll go with this.