Picture: Anora

This is more of a fluid race than we have been used to this decade so far. Conclave could win here. PGA is the only guild that uses the voting system the Oscar's does, and Anora won there. However, Conclave won SAG Ensemble and is guaranteed a screenplay win and that's all that Spotlight needed to win in a fractured field.

Director: Sean Baker - Anora

Again, director was split at this year's BAFTA and DGA. With Corbet (Brutalist) winning the former and Baker winning the latter. DGA has determined the race most of the time when the category is split like this.

Original Screenplay: Anora written by Sean Baker

It won WGA, and it's closest competition would be A Real Pain which did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Had The Substance won Original Screenplay in BAFTA this would be more in jeopardy.

Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Screenplay by Peter Straughan. Based on the novel by Robert Harris.

Swept.

Lead Actor: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

I'm going with the SAG four. SAG and BAFTA have alternated these past few years and the Academy went with all the BAFTA winners last year (which is how Stone beat Gladstone). So I'm sticking with this pattern and saying Chalamet beats Brody. (fun fact: Chalamet would be the youngest winner in this category, Adrian Brody currently holds that title for his performance in The Pianist).

Lead Actress: Demi Moore - The Substance

Again, SAG. I think Moore has the narrative unlike Mikey Madison who is her closest competition.

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Swept.

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Swept.

Cinematography: The Brutalist

It won the BAFTA. Maria and Nosferatu are the only other films with wins but they're not Picture nominees and the winner in this category is usually a Picture nominee.

Original Score: The Brutalist

Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez

Costume Design: Wicked

Production Design: Wicked

Hair and Make-up: The Substance

VFX: Dune: Part Two

Sound: Dune: Part Two

BAFTA and CAS split here, with CAS going with A Complete Unknown. ACU just doesn't make much sense as a Sound winner to me. La La Land couldn't even win a sound award so I'm sticking with the bombastic sound here.

Film Editing: Conclave

Again, not a clear winner here. Conclave won BAFTA and the editors guild will announce winners after the Oscar ceremony. There used to be a correlation in this category with Sound, but since the merging of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into one category this correlation has gotten weaker. EEAAO won here without a Sound nomination, and Oppenheimer won here despite losing Sound to Zone of Interest.

International Feature: Emilia Perez

Some people seem to think that I'm Still Here will win here due to the controversies surrounding Emilia Perez. It's clear that those controversies did not affect Saldana's chances so I don't see why it would ruin them here.

Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Another split category. The Golden Globes went with Flow while the BAFTA's went with Wallace and Gromit. When the category is this split it goes to the PGA winner (Toy Story 4 won here having only won PGA).

Documentary Feature: No Other Land

I don't know much about this category, but this documentary has drummed up quite a bit of buzz. So I'll go with this.

Picture:

1. Emilia Perez
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. Anora
5. A Complete Unknown
6. The Substance
7. Wicked
8. Dune Part Two
9. A Real Pain
10. Nickel Boys

Director:

1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
2. Jacque Audiard - Emilia Perez
3. Edward Berger - Conclave
4. Sean Baker - Anora
5. Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. The Substance
3. A Real Pain
4. The Brutalist
5. Challengers

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. Emilia Perez
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Nickel Boys
5. Dune Part Two

Lead Actor:

1. Adrian Brody - The Brutalist
2. Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
4. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

Lead Actress:

1. Demi Moore - The Substance
2. Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
3. Mikey Madison - Anora
4. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
5. Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
4. Yuriy Borisov - Anora
5. Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
2. Ariana Grande - Wicked
3. Margaret Qualley - The Substance
4. Isabella Rosellini - Conclave
5. Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown

Film Editing:

1. Emilia Perez
2. Conclave
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Wicked
5. The Substance

Cinematography:

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Emilia Perez
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave

Sound:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Gladiator II

Original Score:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. The Wild Robot
4. Emilia Perez
5. Challengers

Original Song:

1. El Mal from Emilia Perez
2. Kiss the Sky from The Wild Robot
3. Mi Camino from Emilia Perez
4. The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
5. Compress/Repress from Challengers

Costume Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Nosferatu
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Hair & Make-up:

1. The Substance
2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
3. Wicked
4. Nosferatu
5. A Different Man

Production Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Nosferatu

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Alien: Romulus
5. Twisters

Animated Feature:

1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir of a Snail
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
3. I'm Still Here
4. Kneecap
5. Flow

We are officially one week away from the Oscar's and all the precursors (being the award shows that happen before the Oscar's) have come and gone. Here's where I think the Oscar's will go on March 10th.

Picture: Oppenheimer

It's a done deal.

Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

After unexpectedly winning the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay it immediately became the front-runner in the category besting previous front-runners The Holdovers and Barbie (which got switched over to Adapted anyway). Having picked up the BAFTA in the same category, it's locked.

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Also having won the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay, beating out Poor Things and Oppenheimer (which BAFTA loved) this is also pretty clearly the favorite to win here. Two weak winners in a row for this category imo.

Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

This seemed obvious for a long time, but now that he's swept all the awards it's a done deal..

Lead Actress: Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

This is actually a tight race between her and Emma Stone in Poor Things. They both won the Globe and Stone won the BAFTA while Gladstone won SAG. Gladstone wasn't even nominated at BAFTA (despite the jury being there to nominate minorities) which complicated the race. However, with SAG having gone after BAFTA I think that'll have more influence and give Gladstone more momentum. Also, most of the time when SAG gives Best Ensemble to the eventual Picture winner they tend to go 4/4 in the acting categories.

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

He swept like Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress: D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Also swept.

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: What Was I Made For? from Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Makeup & Hairstyling: Maestro

Costume Design: Barbie

Poor Things won BAFTA, however BAFTA as a whole did not like Barbie very much. And there's too much iconography attached to the film in this category that I think the Oscar's will go for it over Poor Things.

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects: The Creator

After the branch snubbed both Oppenheimer and Poor Things, it muddled the winner in this category. People initially thought Guardians of the Galaxy 3 would be the winner. But there's pretty severe anti-superhero bias in the category. The Creator won at the VFX guild, it's flashy, it looks good, and it's somewhat of a "serious" movie.

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This isn't as clear as a race as I thought it would have been. Globes and BAFTA went with Boy and the Heron in this category while Critic's Choice and PGA went with Spider-Verse. The Oscar's usually goes populist in this category (eg they went with Toy Story 4 when Globes and BAFTA went in a more artsy direction). So I'm sticking with Spider-Man here.

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This would give Wes Anderson his first Oscar win, if the Academy doesn't blue ball him.

Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

Documentary Short: The ABC's of Book Banning