2026 Oscar predictions
Picture: One Battle After Another
This became a tight race with Sinners late in the game. The obvious parallel here is 1917 and Parasite. 1917 won PGA, DGA, and BAFTA just like OBAA did. Parasite won SAG Ensemble and went on to win Picture from there.
I’m betting on OBAA being stronger than 1917. Notably 1917 was never in contention to win a Screenplay or an Acting award the way OBAA is. And OBAA is nominated in Film Editing and the front-runner in that category which 1917 missed.
I have correctly predicted every Picture winner since The Shape of Water but this is the first year where I’m in danger of losing that streak.
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Whether Sinners ends up winning Picture, I think this goes to PTA regardless.
Original Screenplay: Sinners
Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
Lead Actor: Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
After Chalamet shot himself in the foot with his unorthodox press run for Marty Supreme, Jordan is the only one in the category going in with an industry award as the BAFTA awarded a British actor.
I think Chalamet really fucked up his chances to win for a while and will now win well into his 40s or even into his 50s. He should have played it better.
Lead Actress: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan - Weapons
After winning SAG it seems like it’s heading that way. Mosaku won the BAFTA but she had a homefield advantage. This is also an opportunity to award a veteran actress who never got her due, and will be supported by young people who enjoyed Weapons.
Supporting Actor: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
Despite not campaigning and not appearing at the majority of the award shows (or perhaps because of that) Penn ended up winning both the SAG and BAFTA. Essentially sleepwalking to his third Oscar.
Original Score: Sinners
Original Song: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
Sound: F1
Casting: Sinners
Production Design: Frankenstein
Cinematography: One Battle After Another
Sinners was originally the front-runner and would have made history as the first female cinematographer to win. However it lost both the ASC and BAFTA for Cinematography.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein
Costume Design: Frankenstein
Film Editing: One Battle After Another
Sinners won the ACE Drama awards and OBAA won the ACE Comedy award. This category used to be correlated with Sound but since the sound categories were merged it has now correlated with Picture.
VFX: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
International Feature: Sentimental Value
18/20, hot damn! You only missed best cinematography and best casting. What's your secret? Is it just years of following the industry award cycles, or do you have a handy crystal ball nearby?
Also, now I know who to call when I'm heading to Vegas. Don't worry, I'll cut you in at a fair 20%.
I’ve been watching all this stuff since the year 12 Years A Slave won and loosely predicted it the following year and started more seriously predicting it the year The Shape of Water won.
This year I did much better than I usually do, because sometimes I get stubborn about certain things that lead me down the wrong path. Like my own personal dislike of EEAAO made me predict less wins for it than I should have.
There’s a lot of award shows before the Oscars so you can get a good grasp on what’s gonna win if you keep up with them.
Cinematography was the first woman, first Black person and first Filipino if I understood correctly!