disclaimer that I haven't done much research into this thought and it's mostly anecdotal but I doubt I am wrong?

I personally don't go to theaters, except for comicbook movies. and the only reason I go to theaters for comicbook movies is just cause I liked to discuss the comicbook movies on social media as soon as possible, but honestly, either I am getting really old or the redditors on /r/marvelstudios are getting young and younger everyday cause i go to those comments and it's not really a place I'd describe as open to a civil and non-memey discussion of the latest Marvel movie but I digress.

Point being, I personally prefer to wait for movie to arrive at streaming services. why?

1. I don't have to deal with other people.
   1. I went to watch Creed 3 near the end of its theater run. 3 people chose to sit in front of me when the whole auditorium was basically empty (they looked to be in their mid-late 20s, maybe even early 30s.) I didn't care. What I did care was that one of the dudes spent half his time on his fucking phone. To the point that I literally had to bend over and ask him to put it away and he still didn't. this idiot just attempted to angle the phone in a manner such that I couldn't see it, or so he thought, the light still was there, just less. At that point, I just got too resentful of theaters to tell him off again but felt very stubborn about not moving away from my seat.
   2. I went to watch Aquaman 2 (iirc on opening weekend). I knew the movie was not gonna be great going in, just wanted to mark the end of the DCEU in theaters. 3 young girls were sitting in the middle section. as the movie started, these girls started taking selfies of themselves for the grams or snapchat or whatever the fuck it was. The light from their phone was bright. There was a couple sitting a seat or 2 to my right. the dude and I collectively rolled our eyes at the girls. They took 1 picture. I was like "OK, thank God". 2 pictures, I think "let's hope the second take works". Third picture "this is ridiculous". by this point, I wanted to throw something at them and just leaned over and asked them to put their phone away. I may been asshole cause it seemed like I scared them with that comment and to be quite frank, I took pleasure that I scare them, even accidentally.
2. Theaters are extremely non-inclusive. This one bugs me a lot just cause of Eternals and CODA and Hollywood pretending they are woke. Not sure if anyone here has ever tried to use the closed captioning devices. I am personally not deaf, but I do have trouble processing words. I am the kind of guy who will often ask people to repeat themselves to fully understand what they said. Obviously can't do that with a movie but reading closed captioning helps me process. I finally decided to start trying the closed captioning devices in theaters around the time of Avengers Endgame I think. It's very hit or miss. either the theater forgot to charge the device so it gives out halfway through the movie, or it's just all old and it's neck doesn't retain it's form when I twist it into the good position and it ends up pointing the closed captioning at someone who is a good 1 foot shorter than me or it's fully charged and can retain its form but the studios behind the movie didn't put any serious effort into the closed captioning so half the fucking words are missing, rendering it pointless. My gf and I went to watch Mad Max Furiosa in theaters the other day and the theater didn't even have any remaining, they had given their to the studio to fix and didn't have any in stock as a result.
3. Not sure about the states but up here in Canada, our big chain is Cineplex and they are so desperate to charge us extra that they now charge an extra "service fee" that you get charged only if you buy online.
4. And the classic complaint of "just the snacks cost us a movie and a half nowadays"

However, I don't know if I blame the theater for my issues.

I've read the stories about how Disney have theaters over a barrel with how controlling they are with how much of a cut of a theater tickets goes to Disney and how Disney insists on how many auditorium the theaters devote to their movies. And how theaters charge so much for concession cause they are trying to keep the lights on to some extent cause the studios demand so much of the profit. And if it's a struggle to keep the lights on, I am not surprised they can't be more enforcing with the policy of no-phones during a movie.

It seems to me the studios, in an attempt to "maximize" their profit as much as possible, demanded as much as possible from theaters, while not realizing that the less of a cut that theaters take, the less theaters can invest in a welcoming environment where people actually want to go to and therefore people come less cause couple that with streaming services, why wouldn't people come less?

So I think the demise of theaters and the rise of streaming service can't just be attributed to how much more convenient it is to wait 8 months for a movie on streaming service but it's also attributable to the decline in quality at theaters which I think is cause studios are bleeding them dry.

So I find it odd that studios and production companies bitch moan and complain that people don't go to movies more in a time where a movie has to make 500 million $ just to be considered profitable but they've never really done any proper self-reflection on a possible reason why people don't go to theaters as much anymore.

The year is over. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was released, marking the official end of the DCEU. It goes out with a whimper. Aquaman won't be profitable, but it won't lose as much as The Marvels of The Flash did this year, which I suppose is some consolation prize.

As I said in my summer of busts post only two superhero movies this year made a profit theatrically. In certain corners of the box office community, there was a belief that The Marvels would beat Spider-Verse, but that never seemed realistic. It even came up short of the most conservative initial predictions for it. It did so poorly that it made The Flash's performance look decent.

So what happened? Last year Superhero movies dominated the box office. Although, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water were the top 2 grossing movies. Both domestic and worldwide. But still, all three Marvel films opened to over 100M. Two made over 400M DOM, although, one had poor word of mouth. Even Thor: Love and Thunder, with some horrendous word of mouth, almost grossed 350M DOM. And all three were some of the most profitable blockbusters of the year.

I think 2022 laid the groundwork for what happened this year. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder were received poorly among general audiences. I would also say even though Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was well received, its reception was still pretty tepid, especially compared to the first. And people started enjoying blockbusters with a different look and flavor with Top Gun and Avatar, which made audiences reconsider what types of movies they should watch. Something I think falls in between here is The Batman, which, of course, is a superhero movie, but one that has a distinct look and feel. So, I would place that next to the blockbusters that offered something different than the MCU formula audiences had gotten used to consuming.

Going into 2023, audiences were still interested in superhero movies and, specifically, the MCU. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opened to over 100M, a franchise high. The poor reception of the film was, apparently, the straw that broke the camel's back for audiences.

This wasn't evident right away since the two superhero movies that were released right after (Guardians 3 and Across the Spider-Verse) were well-received and were some of the biggest hits of the year. Even with a softer opening, Guardians 3 managed to leg out incredibly well to outgross the first installment of the franchise. The post I made directly after Guardians 3 opened was perhaps premature in this regard. But I think the superhero films to come out after Spider-Verse proved that point right. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse required fantastic word of mouth to be the hits that they were. If they were received as poorly as the 2022 MCU films, they wouldn't have become the hits they are.

This might seem obvious, you need a good movie that audiences like to be a hit at the box office. But, this was not the case in the prime era of superhero movies. In 2016, Suicide Squad was released with poor critical and audience reception. Yet it grossed 325M DOM and 745M WW. That same year X-Men: Apocalypse still managed to make over 500M WW also with poor reception. Venom would make over 800M WW two years later. Even as recently as 2021, the poorly received Eternals (while the pandemic was still ongoing) made over 400M WW which is double The Marvel's gross.

Quantumania was the start of it but The Flash, Blue Beetle, The Marvels, and Aquaman cemented it. This is a dead genre, and it had an explosive death this year. The top three grossing movies this year worldwide are Barbie, The Super Mario Bros Movies, and Oppenheimer. All three are quite different. And I think they show that audiences are ready for something else, and are shopping around. What used to excite audiences in the 2010s simply isn't exciting them anymore. As GenZ becomes the same age Millennials were ten years ago, they're simply not into superhero movies. The demographic for superhero movies will continue to get older as they continue to fall out of fashion. GenZ is finding interest elsewhere as they made Hunger Games and Wonka hits that outgrossed the majority of superhero movies released this year.

So what of the future?

2024 is barren in Superhero movies. There are technically five comic book movies coming out. However, three of those are from the Sonyverse; Madame Web, Kraven the Hunter, and Venom 3. Two of those seem to be guaranteed bombs and I don't think anyone expects Venom 3 to hit the same numbers as the first Venom. The only two major comic book movies to come out in 2024 are Deadpool 3 and Joker Folie à Deux.

Deadpool 3 is going to be heavily connected to the MCU. With all the plot leaks available, it's looking to be a multiverse cameo fest. This seems exactly the wrong time to be doing this type of film. Cameo porn, as coined by James Gunn, is not a guaranteed money maker as The Flash made it evident earlier this year. Mix that in with the fact that Deadpool 2 was released now almost six years ago, when the market was friendlier to superhero movies, and how heavily connected it is to a Disney+ show, I don't believe this is going to right the MCU ship the way Disney is hoping.

Joker Folie à Deux, however, should benefit from not being a typical comic book film the way something like Deadpool 3 is going to be. And the first Joker has had a long shelf life in the minds of audiences. It should be able to rise above the fatigue of the genre to interest audiences in it.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another top 3 without superhero films. Audiences could potentially gravitate towards other blockbusters like The Garfield Movie, Beetlejuice 2, and Dune: Part Two, or some other variation of films, to make those the three highest-grossing films of the year.

As we look even further beyond, we have Captain America 4 (which was originally set to release in 2024 but got delayed due to them doing massive reshoots), Fantastic Four, Thunderbolts, and Blade for the MCU in 2025. I doubt most of these are even gonna come out in 2025 since some of them don't even have completed scripts! From here on out I think the MCU is just too messy to predict. I suppose if something like Thunderbolts is good (which is being rewritten and directed by the duo that did Beef) that could help them start rebuilding their reputation. I'm not sure if there is gonna be any immediate fix available to jump-start the box office for this universe again though. I think it's gonna take some time. And I don't see the Avengers films currently planned to be massive money-makers either. I think it's time for Disney to reconsider their continuity, start over, and move on. They got too big too fast, and it's over.

Luckily for WB, well maybe not so lucky, the DCEU was already a disaster. So they got a headstart on rebooting and starting fresh with Superman: Legacy in 2025 (they should have rebooted after Justice League but Aquaman making a billion gave them false confidence that they could right the ship). Given Gunn's track record, this should be good. It should be well-reviewed, and it should get a strong audience reception. I think it can easily gross the same amount as The Batman given how much it has going for it. There has not been a good Superman movie since the 80s, I think it's about time a Superman movie breaks out with a 21st-century audience.

Also in 2025; The Batman Part II. Much like Joker, The Batman has kept a long shelf life. It resonated with the primary target audience for superhero films, that being white guys 25-35. It's dark and mature in a way that the audience wants these movies to be. People still talk about it and I don't see its relevancy dying down in another year. I think WB struck gold with The Batman, the way they did with Joker, and I think The Batman Part II could be another billion-dollar hit for WB.

It is weird to talk about a genre this way when it was dominant for most of my life. Writing a post-mortem for Superhero movies was not something I expected to do at the beginning of the year. It felt like something that was always going to be culturally dominant. But trends change and Hollywood is in an interesting place right now.

topics about the strike are becoming one of the most common things in ~movies. for example, compare:

https://tildes.net/~movies?order=new

https://tildes.net/~movies?tag=strikes&order=new

as we do with other frequent topics, a megathread helps consolidate the discussion, making it easier for people interested in the topic to talk about it, and easier to discuss small or minor updates that may not warrant a full topic of their own.

(it also makes it easier for people not interested in the topic to ignore it - because they only need to ignore a single post, rather than a topic tag)