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    1. Post-fall festivals 2023 Oscar predictions

      Okay, I promise this is the last time I’ll make one of these posts for the rest of the year. The major fall festivals (TIFF, Telluride, and Venice) happened. So many movies got mediocre reception...

      Okay, I promise this is the last time I’ll make one of these posts for the rest of the year.

      The major fall festivals (TIFF, Telluride, and Venice) happened. So many movies got mediocre reception at these festivals (namely Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu’s Bardo, Florian Zeller’s The Son, and Sam Mendes’s Empire of Light).

      So the race has taken a more serious shape. Here are the old predictions.

      Here are the renewed predictions:

      Picture:

      1. The Fabelmans
      2. Babylon
      3. Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      5. The Banshees of Inisherin
      6. Women Talking
      7. Elvis
      8. TAR
      9. The Whale
      10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Alt: Top Gun: Maverick

      Director:

      1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
      2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
      3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      5. Todd Field - TAR

      DGA Snub: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Lead Actor:

      1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
      2. Austin Butler - Elvis
      3. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
      4. Bill Nighy - Living
      5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

      Alt: Diego Calva - Babylon

      Lead Actress:

      1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
      2. Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
      3. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      4. Cate Blanchett - TAR
      5. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

      Alt: Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

      Supporting Actor:

      1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
      4. Brad Pitt - Babylon
      5. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking

      Alt: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Supporting Actress:

      1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
      2. Claire Foy - Women Talking
      3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
      4. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
      5. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Alt: Nina Hoss - TAR

      Original Screenplay:

      1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      2. The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. Babylon
      4. The Fabelmans
      5. TAR

      Adapted Screenplay:

      1. Women Talking
      2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
      3. The Whale
      4. Living
      5. Bones & All

      Cinematography:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Empire of Light
      5. The Batman

      Production Design:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fablemans
      4. Elvis
      5. Amsterdam

      Costume Design

      1. Babylon
      2. The Fabelmans
      3. Elvis
      4. Amsterdam
      5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      Hair and Make-up

      1. The Whale
      2. Elvis
      3. The Batman
      4. Babylon
      5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      Original Score:

      1. The Fabelmans
      2. Babylon
      3. Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Women Talking
      5. Empire of Light

      Sound:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Babylon
      4. Elvis
      5. The Fabelmans

      Film Editing:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      5. Elvis

      VFX:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
      5. The Batman
      4 votes
    2. Updated 2023 Oscar predictions

      I wouldn’t be doing an update this early on but there were recent news of many movies being delayed to 2023 including Killers of the Flower Moon and Rustin. Here’s the last one:...

      I wouldn’t be doing an update this early on but there were recent news of many movies being delayed to 2023 including Killers of the Flower Moon and Rustin.

      Here’s the last one: https://tildes.net/~movies/11ix/early_predictions_for_the_2023_oscars

      Picture:

      1. The Fabelmans
      2. Empire of Light
      3. Bardo
      4. Avatar: The Way of Water
      5. Babylon
      6. The Whale
      7. Women Talking
      8. Elvis
      9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      10. White Noise

      Director:

      1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
      2. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
      3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
      5. Alejandro G Innaritu - Bardo

      Original Screenplay:

      1. The Fabelmans
      2. Babylon
      3. Empire of Light
      4. Bardo
      5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Adapted Screenplay

      1. White Noise
      2. Women Talking
      3. The Whale
      4. The Son
      5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Lead Actor:

      1. Austin Butler - Elvis
      2. Adam Driver - White Noise
      3. Daniel Cacho - Bardo
      4. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
      5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

      Lead Actress:

      1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
      2. Cate Blanchett - TAR
      3. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      4. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
      5. Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody

      Supporting Actor:

      1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
      2. Seth Rogen - The Fabelmans
      3. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking
      4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
      5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

      Supporting Actress:

      1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
      2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
      3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
      4. Laura Dern - The Son
      5. Greta Gerwig - White Noise

      Animated Feature:

      1. Strange World
      2. My Father's Dragon
      3. Turning Red
      4. Pinnochio
      5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

      Best Original Score:

      1. The Fabelmans
      2. Avatar: The Way of Water
      3. Women Talking
      4. Babylon
      5. Empire of Light

      Best Sound:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Elvis
      4. Babylon
      5. Bardo

      Best Production Design:

      1. Babylon
      2. Amsterdam
      3. Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Empire of Light
      5. Elvis

      Best Cinematography:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Bardo
      3. Babylon
      4. Empire of Light
      5. The Fabelmans

      Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

      1. Elvis
      2. The Whale
      3. White Noise
      4. Babylon
      5. The Batman

      Best Costume Design:

      1. Elvis
      2. Amsterdam
      3. Babylon
      4. Empire of Light
      5. The Fabelmans

      Best Film Editing:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      5. Elvis

      Best Visual Effects:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
      4. The Batman
      5. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      5 votes
    3. Early predictions for the 2023 Oscars

      It’s the summer movie season, which means that Oscar season is right around the corner. Here are my current predictions for what gets nominated. Not everything will end up happening, last year I...

      It’s the summer movie season, which means that Oscar season is right around the corner. Here are my current predictions for what gets nominated. Not everything will end up happening, last year I had The Last Duel making several categories and it ended up getting blanked. You can see my previous relatively early predictions here

      The Cannes Film Festival happened and it was a total bust. Doesn’t seem like there will be a Cannes breakout this year like last year’s Drive My Car.

      Picture:

      1. Killers of the Flower Moon
      2. Empire of Light
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Avatar: The Way of Water
      5. Babylon
      6. The Whale
      7. Poor Things
      8. Women Talking
      9. Elvis
      10. Thirteen Lives

      Director:

      1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
      2. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
      3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
      5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking

      Original Screenplay:

      1. Empire of Light
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Thirteen Lives
      5. TAR

      Adapted Screenplay

      1. Killers of the Flower Moon
      2. Poor Things
      3. Women Talking
      4. The Whale
      5. The Son

      Lead Actor:

      1. Austin Butler - Elvis
      2. Hugh Jackman - The Son
      3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
      5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

      Lead Actress:

      1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
      2. Cate Blanchett - TAR
      3. Emma Stone - Poor Things
      4. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
      5. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

      Supporting Actor:

      1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
      2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking
      4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
      5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

      Supporting Actress:

      1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
      2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
      3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
      4. Laura Dern - The Son
      5. Jean Smart - Babylon

      Animated Feature:

      1. Lightyear
      2. Strange World
      3. Turning Red
      4. Pinnochio
      5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

      Best Original Score:

      1. Empire of Light
      2. Avatar: The Way of Water
      3. Women Talking
      4. Babylon
      5. Killers of the Flower Moon

      Best Original Song:

      1. Hold My Hands by Lady Gaga from Top Gun: Maverick
      2. Carolina by Taylor Swift from Where The Crawdad Sing?
      3. Nobody Like U by Billie Eillish and Finneas from Turning Red
      4. On My Way by Jennifer Lopez from Marry Me
      5. Vegas by Doja Cat from Elvis (might be ineligible)

      Best Sound:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Babylon
      5. Thirteen Lives

      Best Production Design:

      1. Babylon
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Empire of Light
      5. Elvis

      Best Cinematography:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Babylon
      4. Empire of Light
      5. Poor Things

      Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

      1. The Batman
      2. Elvis
      3. The Whale
      4. Babylon
      5. Poor Things

      Best Costume Design:

      1. Poor Things
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Babylon
      4. Empire of Light
      5. Elvis

      Best Film Editing:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Thirteen Lives
      5. Elvis

      Best Visual Effects:

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
      4. The Batman
      5. Thirteen Lives
      5 votes