My current Oscar predictions
I know that there aren’t a lot of film buffs here, and that a lot of you don’t care about awards. I love awards. The oscars are actually a really important thing that got me watching more interesting movies. And I make it a point to watch all the Best Picture nominees every year.
I spend a lot of time on trying to predict what will get nominated and will win at the Oscars. I’m pretty okay at it. I average about a 76% correctly predicting what gets nominated and an 80% what wins. Things change as more award shows happen. And the closer we get to the Oscars.
But, I wanted to share with y’all what I thought would get nominated at the Oscars this coming year.
In no specific order:
Best Picture:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
The Last Duel
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
Dune
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Best Director:
Adam McKay - Don’t Look Up
Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Ridley Scott - The Last Duel
Denis Villeneuve - Dune
Best Lead Actress:
Jodie Comer - The Last Duel
Jennifer Lawrence - Don’t Look Up
Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
Best Lead Actor:
Will Smith - King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio - Don’t Look Up
Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Adam Driver - The Last Duel
Best Supporting Actress:
Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Meryl Streep - Don’t Look Up
Aunjaune Ellis - King Richard
Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
Best Supporting Actor:
Jamie Dornan - Belfast
Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza
Mark Rylance - Don’t Look Up
Jared Leto - House of Gucci
Jon Bernthal - King Richard
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
House of Gucci
Dune
West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Being the Ricardos
Best Cinematography:
Dune
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
The Last Duel
The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design:
House of Gucci
The Last Duel
West Side Story
Dune
Being the Ricardos
Hair and Makeup:
House of Gucci
Being the Ricardos
King Richard
Dune
West Side Story
Best Production Design:
Licorice Pizza
The Last Duel
Dune
West Side Story
Belfast
Best Sound:
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
Dune
No Time To Die
The Last Duel
Best Original Score:
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Last Duel
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Original Song:
No Time To Die from No Time To Die
Be Alive from King Richard
Down to Joy from Belfast
Dos Oruguitas from Encanto
Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
Best Film Editing:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
The Last Duel
Dune
Belfast
Best Visual Effects:
Black Widow
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Dune
No Time To Die
Don’t Look Up
That’s what I have for now.
If this list is worth anything, it’s to let you guys know what films have a lot of buzz. The only films I think are certain of getting a Best Picture nomination are Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, and Don’t Look Up.
If you haven’t watch Belfast or King Richard as of yet, I highly recommend checking them out.
No thoughts about Spencer / Kristen Stewart?
Edit: I also figured French Dispatch would get nominated for something. I'll be the first to say I don't entirely understand awards though.
The French Dispatch and Spencer definitely have buzz. With a lot of people thinking that Stewart is the front-runner to win Lead Actress.
The French Dispatch started losing a lot of buzz when it premiered at Cannes to good but not ecstatic reviews like The Grand Budapest got. When it screened at Telluride it got an even worse reception. It’s a movie that’s gotten a lot more 7s than 9s. It’s something that might show up in technical categories (Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Hair & Makeup) but I think there’s too much competition this year for the Academy to give a few nominations to a lukewarm received movie.
Spencer is a movie that is not playing well with the general audience. It has a lower audience score than Jackie (from the same director) which was a successful movie with the Academy and for which Natalie Portman was given a nomination (who at some point, like Stewart, was considered the front-runner). The problem is that this seems to be a more polarizing movie than Jackie was, and it’s by all accounts (I haven’t actually seen either movie) a much weirder movie than Jackie. So because of that I don’t see it performing well with the Academy, and especially with the Actor’s branch who prefer crowd-pleasers.
Gotcha, thank you!
Boy does this lineup reinforce the "this is not for plebians" reputation the Oscars have. A huge number of nominations go to a Netflix movie that hasn't even released and the rest of the films that have had release are films that haven't been seen by most people because hard-headed fools decided to do a traditional cinema release during an ongoing pandemic.
That being said, I'm hoping that Dune wins a number of these categories. Visual effects at minimum.
I think Don’t Look Up has the potential to be a big hit among general audiences. The trailer makes it seem like a really accessible studio comedy crowd-pleaser, and it releases during Christmas. (I also think it’s currently the front-runner to win Best Picture).
Edit: Actually the only movie I named in Best Picture that could be considered art-house is Power of the Dog, the rest can be considered crowd-pleasers.
Really? When's the last time a straight up comedy won Best Picture? I guess Parasite has some comedic elements, but I wouldn't say it's primarily a comedy, and it's a huge outlier anyway. Most Best Picture winners, or even nominees, are serious dramas. Often self-consciously so.
Well I expect there to be dramatic moments in this, and have a tone closer to something like Succession (which Adam McKay is an Executive Producer on and also directed the first episode) than Anchorman (which McKay also directed). From all the test screenings it seems like it’s gonna play very well with the academy, and is Netflix’s priority of the season. It’s also a political satire, which helps a lot.
I wouldn’t call them straight-up comedies, but comedies that have won Best Picture are Green Book, Birdman, The Artist, and The King’s Speech (which is much more of a buddy comedy than most people remember). With the exception of The Artist which had virtually no competition, all of these movies ended up beating their more serious counterparts (Roma, Boyhood, and The Social Network).
I'm not a film buff but I too love awards! They're great for finding new stuff to try, in my experience, whether they be for books, movies, TV shows, music, etc. So thank you for sharing, your list is intriguing and I'll have to check out some of your nominees.
Assuming you've seen most these movies, what/who do you think deserves to win thus far?
I have not seen most of these movies, in fact about five of the movies I list on my Best Picture predictions haven’t been released or have only had screenings in like five theaters.
I could say that my favorite movies of the year include In The Heights, Last Night in Soho, Belfast, and The Last Duel.