Thales's recent activity

  1. Comment on 2023-24 NHL season: who makes the playoffs and where? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    Western Conference Standings Prediction C1 DAL C2 COL C3 WPG P1 VAN P2 EDM P3 VGK WC1 LA WC2 NSH The Western Conference playoff teams are set, imo, but the order is where this conference gets...

    Western Conference Standings Prediction

    C1 DAL
    C2 COL
    C3 WPG

    P1 VAN
    P2 EDM
    P3 VGK

    WC1 LA
    WC2 NSH

    The Western Conference playoff teams are set, imo, but the order is where this conference gets interesting.

    The Central is the most unpredictable division. DAL/WPG/COL are locked into those top 3 spots but I could see any of them claiming #1. DAL/WPG in particular made some excellent deadline additions for depth. Not sure how I feel about COL losing Byram, but Mittelstadt fills the hole at 2C (empty since Kadri left) and I feel like he could have another gear.

    In the Pacific, I think VAN is too far ahead (and too good) for anyone to catch up. The Oilers will have to settle for second place, although I doubt they mind after such a scary start to the year. I'm also confident Vegas turns their skid around and transforms back into the championship team we saw last year (and earlier this season).

    Of the non-playoff teams, MIN has the most potential to disrupt things, imo. I could see them challenging NSH for that last spot in the wild card... but it's a tall order at this stage of the season. I think they'll fall short despite their easy schedule to end the year.

  2. Comment on 2023-24 NHL season: who makes the playoffs and where? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    Eastern Conference Standings Prediction A1 FLA A2 BOS A3 TOR M1 NYR M2 CAR M3 NYI WC1 TBL WC2 DET The Bruins and Panthers play each other twice before the end of the season, and I think it's going...

    Eastern Conference Standings Prediction

    A1 FLA
    A2 BOS
    A3 TOR

    M1 NYR
    M2 CAR
    M3 NYI

    WC1 TBL
    WC2 DET


    The Bruins and Panthers play each other twice before the end of the season, and I think it's going to be those two games that decide who takes the top spot. The Panthers have the slightly more difficult schedule, but they also have a game and a point in hand. Ultimately, I predict they clear BOS by a handful of points and pair off against the Red Wings in the playoffs, setting up yet another TOR vs. BOS round 1 rematch.

    In the Metro, I think the Rangers will hold their edge over the Canes despite the latter picking up this year's biggest trade deadline acquisition in Jake Guentzel. I doubt Kuznetsov will end up making a big impact in Carolina, but who knows. That being said, the Rangers may regret taking #1 in the Metro given that it will match them up against Tampa Bay instead of the Islanders 😳

    1 vote
  3. Comment on 2023-24 NHL season: who makes the playoffs and where? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    The playoff teams in the West are set, imo. The situation in the East is down to four teams fighting for three spots. As of today: NYI are on a six game winning streak. DET are on a five game...

    The playoff teams in the West are set, imo. The situation in the East is down to four teams fighting for three spots. As of today:

    M3: PHI (74pts; 17 games left)

    WC1: TBL (74pts; 17 games left)
    WC2: NYI (72pts; 19 games left)


    Out: DET (72pts; 18 games left)

    NYI are on a six game winning streak. DET are on a five game skid.

    However… I think when it all shakes out, the standings will look like this:

    M3: NYI

    WC1: TBL
    WC2: DET


    Out: PHI

    By some power rankings, the Red Wings have one of the easiest schedules left in the entire league. Even going by objective point percentage, they still have a slightly easier schedule than NYI/PHI.

    Their recent skid (imo), is down to a combination of the loss of Dylan Larkin, some tough opponents (VGK, COL, FLA), and... a little bit of genuinely bad play. But, their next five games are against non-playoff teams! By the time they face sterner competition again, Larkin should be back in the lineup.

     

    The Flyers are a Tortorella-induced mirage that's been coming apart in the back half of this season. I expect them to continue to drop in points percentage due to goaltending issues and a lack of star-power.

    I think the Isles make it because of how weak the top of the Metro is this year (NJ's goaltending and injury issues changed the face of that division) and because their team has been playing stingy defence and getting timely offence/goaltending of late.

    Tampa I simply can't count out.

     

    One team to watch in all of this, not because they'll make it but because they have the potential to play kingmaker: Buffalo.

    The Sabres have been playing better in their last 20ish games. Over the rest of the season, they play DET x3, PHI x1, NYI x1, and TBL x1. Will be interesting to see what their role is in the final Eastern Conference standings.


    Edit: another team to watch: NYR. They play NYI x3, PHI x 2, Det x1, TBL x1. They may end up choosing their own opponent if they drop into M2 and play M3 (either PHI or NYI). Interesting.

    1 vote
  4. Comment on What's a "house rule" that has made a game more fun for you? in ~games

    Thales
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    It's the base game that isn't balanced--I think your house rule is pretty much necessary to correct for the game's snowballing bias.

    Doubt it's balanced

    It's the base game that isn't balanced--I think your house rule is pretty much necessary to correct for the game's snowballing bias.

    16 votes
  5. Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books

    Thales
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    The sheer number of characters in this novella was insane. I actually wrote up a review for it a little while ago. It's essentially spoiler-free, but I'll put it in tags just in case you want to...

    I've been trying to get through Gabriel García Márquez's Chronicle of a Death Foretold

    The sheer number of characters in this novella was insane. I actually wrote up a review for it a little while ago. It's essentially spoiler-free, but I'll put it in tags just in case you want to wait till after you're done to read it :)

     

    My review of *Chronicle of a Death Foretold*, by Gabriel Garcia Marquez (no major spoilers)

    I had no idea what to expect entering this novella. Gabriel Garcia Marquez is frequently talked up as Latin America’s premiere writer and I’ve been eager to try his work for a long time

    • I think this is something I would have really enjoyed had it been easier to follow the ridiculous number of names, locations, personal histories, and interrelationships
    • Santiago Nasar is the son of Placida Linero (why they don’t share a last name is a mystery), the friend of the unnamed narrator, best friend of Cristo Bedoya, fiancé of Flora Miguel, patron of Maria Alejandrina Cervantes, enemy of Pedro and Pablo Vicario, suspected lover of Angela Vicario, la di da di da
    • I gave up trying to work out the relationships after like 50 names had been introduced in the first 35 pages
    • But as headache-inducing as the web of interrelationships is to follow, that’s also where this story finds its spark. There’s a sense of gravity and reality to the story that comes from the deep personal histories and relationships that connect the characters; old conflicts, promises, alliances, and rivalries extend backward years into the past
    • It’s impressive how Marquez introduces and fleshes out so many characters and so many relationships in so few pages—even if it did nearly kill me
    • The narrator delves into the past, peeling it back, layer by layer, and each level stripped away only reveals more levels of history, deeper and deeper
    • There is a real sense of humour and humanity in Marquez’s characters and his writing
    • I look forward to hopefully getting a slower-paced, more accessible experience with Love in the Time of Cholera, though I anticipate that large casts and complicated relationships are something of a staple in Marquez’s work

    I had an okay time with it, but like you, I wasn't enthralled by the story.

    1 vote
  6. Comment on Toronto Maple Leafs' Morgan Rielly to appeal five-game suspension to NHL commissioner Gary Bettman in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
    Link Parent
    I think this is one of those situations where everyone's just going to have to watch the video and decide for themselves whether Rielly was aiming for the head vs the shoulder. I don't know if...

    I think this is one of those situations where everyone's just going to have to watch the video and decide for themselves whether Rielly was aiming for the head vs the shoulder.

    I don't know if anyone is still following this who hasn't already seen the tape and picked a side (lol) but here's the video for anyone who hasn't already seen it.

    There's a slow motion replay around 1:44. Unfortunately there aren't many angles.

    1 vote
  7. Comment on Toronto Maple Leafs' Morgan Rielly to appeal five-game suspension to NHL commissioner Gary Bettman in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    I haven’t seen a video that shows the trajectory of Rielly’s swing change due to contact with Greig’s shoulder. Until that video emerges, I’m siding with the DOPS, Bettman, and (anecdotally) most...

    I think it's pretty obvious that Rielly wasn't targeting the head. He had plenty of time to line it up properly if that were the case, instead of having it glance up off the shoulder.

    I haven’t seen a video that shows the trajectory of Rielly’s swing change due to contact with Greig’s shoulder. Until that video emerges, I’m siding with the DOPS, Bettman, and (anecdotally) most neutral fans on this being intentional.

    1 vote
  8. Comment on Toronto Maple Leafs' Morgan Rielly to appeal five-game suspension to NHL commissioner Gary Bettman in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    I was extremely disappointed by Rielly's actions. I'm a fan of the Senators and have a history with head injury, so naturally I was upset seeing Greig take a headshot--but I'm also generally a fan...

    I was extremely disappointed by Rielly's actions.

    I'm a fan of the Senators and have a history with head injury, so naturally I was upset seeing Greig take a headshot--but I'm also generally a fan of Morgan Rielly. Even if he plays for a rival team, I've always recognized him as a skilled player, and his outspoken support for the LGBT community is inspiring in a sport that has some serious homophobia issues. His relationship with Tessa Virtue is also cute, and I admire him for the way he has (seemingly) handled the endless Tessa Virtue X Scott Moir shipping with grace. Watching him succumb to emotions on the ice and deliver a headshot was as surprising as it was disappointing.

    I don't buy the "it was an accident, he was aiming for the body" excuse from Rielly, and I'm pleased to see Bettman gave it zero credence as well:

    "This is not a case where Mr. Rielly's stick was delivered to the misection or shoulder and 'rode up' to Mr. Greig's head" (page 8).

    I think the slapshot was awesome--I love rivalry in sports. It's one of the few areas of life where shit-talking, flexing, etc. is 100% fine, in my opinion. I'm genuinely hoping that the next time Toronto has an open net opportunity vs Ottawa, one of the Leafs winds up for a clapper and then gives the Sens bench a big shit-eating grin. It would be hilarious if this turned into an ongoing thing between the two teams.

    I would have also been cool with Rielly challenging Greig to a fight and/or shoving him. The response isn't the issue--the decision to respond is actually fantastic for the rivalry, imo--it's the egre(i)giousness of the response that is the whole problem here. I think Bettman nailed it in point#1 on page 7.

    Hopefully this is a one-time thing from Rielly and I can go back to being a fan.

    1 vote
  9. Comment on Toronto Maple Leafs' Morgan Rielly to appeal five-game suspension to NHL commissioner Gary Bettman in ~sports.hockey

  10. Comment on "If the role of dysfunctional parenting in psychological disorders was ever fully recognized, the DSM would shrink to the size of a thin pamphlet" in ~health.mental

    Thales
    Link Parent
    This observation is really insightful, and a succinct summary of something I've been thinking about a lot lately: sometimes, the "cycle of trauma" isn't something that only needs to be broken once...

    So when we don't fit, and are punished for it, it comes from everywhere, all sides at all times and that's traumatizing. Our parents tried to save us from the trauma they felt by pushing us into "normal boxes" and that caused trauma too. We don't bounce back well, especially in childhood when the only examples we have to learn from are traumatized NDs who may just barely be keeping their own heads above water (or not).

    This observation is really insightful, and a succinct summary of something I've been thinking about a lot lately: sometimes, the "cycle of trauma" isn't something that only needs to be broken once within a family; sometimes it may need to be broken again and again within a lineage because it may be self-generating.

    If a lineage is genetically predisposed to behaviour that is "incompatible" with society as defined by neurotypical people, members of that lineage may need to teach each successive generation how to handle their tricky DNA and love themselves despite it.

    This in no way downplaying the heroic efforts of those labouring to break the cycle of abuse! Those who succeed are doing the noblest form of work and have my undying admiration. I only recommend that you chronicle your journey for the sake of your descendants lest they one day find themselves having to break the cycle anew.


    One other thought: I would be cautious about referring to neurotypicals as a monolith. I understand you're referring to them as monolithic in the same sense that Tolstoy once referred to happy vs unhappy families ("Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way") but I think lumping large groups of people together is almost always dangerous.

    7 votes
  11. Comment on Roughly halfway through the NHL's 2023-2024 season: what are your thoughts on the season so far? How is your team doing? Any surprises? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    I was a huge fan of Sakic as a kid so the Avs have always been my second team. It sucks how much injuries and "personal circumstances" will likely decide Colorado's fate this year. Landeskog Byram...

    I was a huge fan of Sakic as a kid so the Avs have always been my second team.

    It sucks how much injuries and "personal circumstances" will likely decide Colorado's fate this year.

    • Landeskog
    • Byram
    • Lekhonen
    • And now Nichushkin

    Have all missed time, and those are huge losses. If the team is at full strength come playoffs, I think they have as good a chance as anyone in the West to win the cup. It's good to see Lehkonen and Byram slated for return next week, though it comes right on the heels of Nichushkin departing for the Player Assistance Program. And who knows if/when Landeskog will be back (nice to see him skating again though).

    They're a fun team to watch though! One of the most exciting teams in the league, imo.

    1 vote
  12. Comment on Roughly halfway through the NHL's 2023-2024 season: what are your thoughts on the season so far? How is your team doing? Any surprises? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    How do you feel about Tampa/NJ creeping up behind the Wings? My lukewarm take: if the Wings make it, the Flyers are the ones to draw out. NJ hops them to take 3rd in the Metro and TBL/DET take the...

    How do you feel about Tampa/NJ creeping up behind the Wings?

    My lukewarm take: if the Wings make it, the Flyers are the ones to draw out. NJ hops them to take 3rd in the Metro and TBL/DET take the wildcard spots.

  13. Comment on Roughly halfway through the NHL's 2023-2024 season: what are your thoughts on the season so far? How is your team doing? Any surprises? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    My team remains… the Ottawa Senators (15-23-0)… Well, DJ Smith is finally gone. As I said in my post at the 10 game mark: The fact that the team has continued its dreadful run post-Smith has many...
    • Exemplary

    My team remains… the Ottawa Senators (15-23-0)…

    Well, DJ Smith is finally gone. As I said in my post at the 10 game mark:

    "I don't think we'll know the real state of the team until DJ Smith and the rest of the coaching staff are (finally) fired and we can see the team with a real structure in place. Currently there seems to be almost no system."

    The fact that the team has continued its dreadful run post-Smith has many Sens fans despairing, but I don't know that we should be blowing up the team just yet. We're still early in the post-DJ era. Learning to play within a real defensive structure for the first time in years was never going to be easy. You could liken it to learning a new language: the early days aren't going to be pretty. There are going to be a lot of mistakes and it's going to get uglier before it gets better.

    But some of these guys (Tkachuk, Stutzle, Chabot, etc.) need to snap out of playing "DJ Smith hockey" and realize they're expected to play defence now. Tkachuk and Stutzle are the most worrisome given how much they've struggled under Martin.

    That being said, this team does need a major retool. We need a #1 goalie, another defenceman like Sanderson, and we either need Stutzle to mature physically/mentally into an all-around 1C or we need a Ryan O'Reilly type 2C. (Or a new top centre, altogether...)

    So basically I'm saying we need a #1D, a 1G, and possibly a #1C. NBD.

     


     

    The Good:

    • Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto, and Greig are all still <25 and long-term pieces
    • Batherson, Chabot, Chych, Zub, and Joseph are all good-to-great complementary players
    • Giroux is a great veteran presence
    • Tarasenko should fetch a decent haul at the TDL (how is Tank +10 on this team? I know +/- is basically meaningless, but still)
    • Two first rounds picks this year (plus whatever else we can get at the TDL)

    The Bad:

    • Too many one-dimensional players: Stutzle, Norris, Batherson have all become soft, one-way forwards (although at least Bath is doing it well, lately); Chabot and Chychrun play like soft offensive defenceman, and lately even Sanderson has been playing soft; our fourth line forwards are all just warm bodies; etc.
    • Our "game-breaking talent" (Tkachuk/Stutzle) has regressed hard
    • Depth (Kastelic, Chartier, MacEwen, Kelly, Kubalik, etc.) is dreadful
    • Prospect pool is depleted
    • Goaltending is awful
    • We're going to lose a 1st some time in the next three years

    At this point, when/if I watch, it's to see how the players are responding to Martin's adjustments and how much of this team can be salvaged. The 2024 draft is going to be critical for this iteration of the Sens.

     


     

    League-wide, the biggest surprises for me are the teams leading the Atlantic, Central, and Pacific. I had Boston, Vancouver, and Winnipeg as bubble teams; instead, Vancouver is #1 in the league, WPG is setting defensive records in a high-scoring era, and the Bruins have somehow shrugged off losing their top two centres. Philadelphia's play under Torts is also impressive.

    The competition for the Jack Adams this year is going to be fierce.

    Conversely, I'm very surprised by the Sabres' struggles. I like that roster a lot. I know they've had injuries, but they've been consistently bad all season. Would be curious to hear a Sabres' fan's perspective on their year.

    7 votes
  14. Comment on Huge ancient city found in the Amazon in ~humanities.history

    Thales
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    It's astonishing how such massive settlements can just disappear from mainstream knowledge for centuries. I'm very excited to see what new discoveries come out about this and how they reshape our...

    A huge ancient city has been found in the Amazon, hidden for thousands of years by lush vegetation.
    The discovery changes what we know about the history of people living in the Amazon.

    "It changes the way we see Amazonian cultures. Most people picture small groups, probably naked, living in huts and clearing land - this shows ancient people lived in complicated urban societies," says co-author Antoine Dorison.
    The city was built around 2,500 years ago, and people lived there for up to 1,000 years, according to archaeologists.
    It is difficult to accurately estimate how many people lived there at any one time, but scientists say it is certainly in the 10,000s if not 100,000s.

    Researchers first found evidence of a city in the 1970s, but this is the first time a comprehensive survey has been completed, after 25 years of research.
    It reveals a large, complex society that appears to be even bigger than the well-known Mayan societies in Mexico and Central America.

    It's astonishing how such massive settlements can just disappear from mainstream knowledge for centuries. I'm very excited to see what new discoveries come out about this and how they reshape our understanding of South American civilization.

    I was fascinated by the Inca, Maya, and Aztecs as a child--it would have blown my mind to learn about peoples like the Kilamope and Upano (not to mention Olmecs, Toltecs, Mapuche, etc.).

    30 votes
  15. Comment on Quizzle – Can you guess the word in fewer than twenty questions? in ~games

    Thales
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    I loved this! The feeling of getting the answer on my 20th guess was surprisingly thrilling (lol). Spoilers for the questions I asked and the answers I received My guesses were almost completely...

    I loved this!

    The feeling of getting the answer on my 20th guess was surprisingly thrilling (lol).

    Spoilers for the questions I asked and the answers I received

    My guesses were almost completely random. I started with "is the word more than five letters long?" and then "is it alive?" After asking this, I realized "is it organic?" would have been a better question, so that was my third.

    "Is it bigger than a standard loaf of wonder bread?" then "can I order it on amazon?"

    I stumped it with "is it more than 20 american dollars?" (hahaha).

    Eventually I asked "is it a tool?" and got a yes response, which narrowed it down considerably. "Is it used in a kitchen?" "is it used for cleaning?" "is it a solid?"

    "Is it a cloth?" was my 19th guess, forgetting that the game had already told me the word was more than five letters. But the "yes" response led me to my final question: "Is it a towel?"

    😮‍💨

    Y'all are much better at this than me, hahaha.

    One suggestion: it would be lovely to be able to see a list of all the questions you asked at the end of the game. (In part so I can laugh at how redundant many of my questions were...).

    3 votes
  16. Comment on Roughly ten games into the NHL season: what are your thoughts on the season so far? How is your team doing? Any surprises? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
    Link Parent
    It seems like everything except the top 6 is struggling in Edmonton--is that about right? And from the sounds of it, even McDavid/Draisaitl aren't up to their usual standard?

    It seems like everything except the top 6 is struggling in Edmonton--is that about right? And from the sounds of it, even McDavid/Draisaitl aren't up to their usual standard?

    1 vote
  17. Comment on Roughly ten games into the NHL season: what are your thoughts on the season so far? How is your team doing? Any surprises? in ~sports.hockey

    Thales
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    Andlauer and the young talent are the only reason I have any hope in the future of this team. I'm not sure if it was Andlauer's decision to not can Dorion/DJ at the beginning of the summer or if...

    Andlauer and the young talent are the only reason I have any hope in the future of this team.

    I'm not sure if it was Andlauer's decision to not can Dorion/DJ at the beginning of the summer or if they were kept on because the sale of the team didn't officially go through till the end of the summer, but either way it hasn't panned out.

    Last season was DJ's "prove it" year and he failed. This year should have been a fresh start.

    ///

    I honestly don't mind Brady going to war against the fanbase on behalf of the guys in the room. If he wants to tell us to STFU about the coach and his teammates, good on him, hahaha. Doesn't mean the booing will stop, though ;)

    3 votes