Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 11-12

Leader of Pussy Riot Band Escapes Russia, With Help From Friends (NYT)

Maria V. Alyokhina first came to the attention of the Russian authorities — and the world — when her punk band and performance art group Pussy Riot staged a protest against President Vladimir V. Putin in Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral.

For that act of rebellion in 2012, she was sentenced to two years in prison for “hooliganism.” She remained determined to fight Mr. Putin’s system of repression, even after being jailed six more times since last summer, each stint for 15 days, always on trumped-up charges aimed at stifling her political activism.

But in April, as Mr. Putin cracked down harder to snuff out any criticism of his war in Ukraine, the authorities announced that her effective house arrest would be converted to 21 days in a penal colony. She decided it was time to leave Russia — at least temporarily — and disguised herself as a food courier to evade the Moscow police who had been staking out the friend’s apartment where she was staying. She left her cellphone behind as a decoy and to avoid being tracked.

A friend drove her to the border with Belarus, and it took her a week to cross into Lithuania. In a studio apartment in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, she agreed to an interview to describe a dissident’s harrowing escape from Mr. Putin’s Russia.

Video of an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian tank on 6 May is getting much attention for the turret's attempt to go to the Moon. It should be getting a lot more attention, though, for where it happened and what this means for Russia.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1524448245539393539

Thread Reader:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1524448245539393539.html

The site of the attack has been geolocated to near Novoazovsk, a town deep in the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic".

The town has been under Russia/separatist control since 27 August 2014, when it was the scene of fighting (pictured below) during an attempted advance on Mariupol. It's 100 km inside separatist territory, and only 13 km from the Russian border.

…

It shows that Russia's worst nightmare in its occupied territory is coming true: a guerrilla war of roadside bombs, drones and loitering munitions - Iraq or Afghanistan on steroids.

In case you wanted to know just how stupid Putin's government thinks Russian people are:

During the May 9 V-Day celebration on Channel One, among the "couples separated because of the WWII" were... Bonnie and Clyde (via Meduza's Telegram channel). For comparison: the original photo of the criminal couple via Wikimedia Commons.

A Full List (and map) of Mysterious Fires in Russia
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8b6f4c03fdcd464c9de653fd28ccdce3

Lots of military enlistment offices, oil/fuel depots, and sites related to military research or supply. Unfortunately many of the sources cited for the data points are not very reputable, so have your grains of salt ready.

Two Russian journalists appear to defy Putin, slamming the war in Ukraine (CNN)

Two Russian reporters appeared to post at least 30 articles on Monday that criticized President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

CNN reviewed the articles, which were taken down almost immediately after they were published on a pro-Kremlin news site. Some were pegged to the 77th anniversary of the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany, while others criticized Putin for using Russia's Victory Day to justify his violent onslaught in Ukraine.

Reporters Egor Polyakov and Alexandra Miroshnikova made several claims in their articles, including that Russian defense officials were "lying to relatives" of those killed on the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet flagship. They directly accused Putin of launching one of the "bloodiest wars of the 21st century."

"Putin and his circle are doomed to face a tribunal after the end of the war," Polyakov and Miroshnikova published to the news site Lenta.ru. "Putin and his associates won't be able to justify themselves or flee after losing this war."

Polyakov and Miroshnikova are both business editors at Lenta.ru, a major pro-Kremlin Russian news site. The outlet's parent company was recently bought by Russia's Sberbank (SBRCY), which is subject to US sanctions for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

CNN reached out to the two reporters and lenta.ru for comment but did not immediately receive a response. Independent Russian news site Mediazone published what it said was a statement from Polyakov and Miroshnikova after the articles made their appearance.

"Putin is a paranoid dictator," they were quoted as saying. "Putin must go. He started a senseless war and is leading Russia into a ditch." Polyakov and Miroshnikova not only publicly rejected the government line on the Russia's invasion but went as far as to accuse Putin of lying about his intentions in Ukraine from the outset.

"Putin repeatedly lied about his plans for Russia in Ukraine, naming one goal at first then a completely different one." They pointed to Putin's call for a "liberation of Donbass," "de-Nazification," and the "demilitarization of Ukraine," as examples of what they describe as hastily put together justifications for a needless war.

One of the articles focused on what Polyakov and Miroshnikova described as the Russian military lying to families of Russian sailors who died on the Moskva flag ship that sank in the Black Sea last month.

The article claimed the Russian navy may have recirculated old images of the Moskva's crew to suggest more sailors made it off the ship unharmed than really did. "The video of the Black Sea fleet leadership and crew members that the Defense Ministry circulated after the tragedy could've been archival since a relative of a missing crew member actually recognized him in the video itself." CNN could not independently confirm these claims.

Each article the pair posted to the site started with the same urgent plea under the headline. "Disclaimer: This material is not approved by the state, therefore the Presidential administration will delete it... In other words: TAKE A SCREENSHOT URGENTLY before it's deleted."

The duo also appeared to sign off from Lenta.ru saying, "We're looking for work, lawyers and probably, political asylum!" "Don't be afraid, don't be quiet," they continued in an apparent call to action. "Resist! You are not one, you are many! The future is yours!... Peace to Ukraine!"

Is Putin Sick – Or Are We Meant to Think He Is? (The New Lines Magazine)

Western governments, not to mention the news organizations they leak to, are similarly inclined to have us envision Putin and the regressive state he rules in the worst possible light. When Alexander Solzhenitsyn sought an allegory to depict the Stalinist slave empire after the purges — one in which everyone from the Central Committee member to the petty apparatchik to the man-in-the-street was made to look complicit in the cannibalization of society — he opted for cancer. Treatment for a metastasizing tumor, as Solzhenitsyn knew from firsthand experience, could be every bit as destructive to the organism as the pathology itself.

Perhaps something of Solzhenitsyn’s literary legacy informs the whispers of Putin as the modern Sick Man of Europe. Then again, maybe he is just that. New Lines has obtained an audio recording of an oligarch close to the Kremlin who describes Putin as “very ill with blood cancer,” although the type of blood cancer was unspecified. Needless to say, we are unable to independently confirm this allegation, Putin’s medical charts being notoriously difficult to come by. But the recording represents rare testimony by someone with proven ties to the Russian government that its fanatical dictator may well be seriously unwell. And the oligarch had no idea he was being recorded.

For what it's worth, I've seen a couple of takes on "Putin is seriously ill" on Twitter that supposedly come from experienced doctors of medicine. One of them (in Russian, from a Ukrainian source) purports to be an anesthesiologist (no way to verify). The person in question claims that Putin's breath frequency is three times the norm (40-46/min. vs. the normal 12-18/min.), and that his head is very puffy, which is supposedly indicative of the Cushing syndrome: that is, a long-term heavy use of corticosteroids. For what it's worth, the latter claim aligns well with the one from the article, where a verifiable source claims the same about Putin's head.

My personal thoughts:

All of this is well and good as a morale boost for some people. I'm not too eager to believe it, one way or another: in either case, Putin remains in power and continues the slaughter of the Ukrainian people. Ill or not, makes no difference right now.

I'll believe the autopsy when I see it. Before then, I'd urge every single person with a gun within the Kremlin to think twice about what they value most: their job, or the bright future of their country.

From @DefenceU, Official Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:

Near Stary Saltiv,Kharkiv Territorial Defense fighters eliminated another new 🇷🇺T-90M "Breakthrough" tank. The pride of the russian tank industry was destroyed by the Swedish hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher Carl Gustaf.We thank the Swedish people and the King for their help.

Source (tweet includes video of T-90M kill)

As US blames Russia for KA-SAT hack, Starlink sees growing threat

Elon Musk says Russian hackers are increasing efforts to take down SpaceX’s Starlink broadband service amid the war in Ukraine.

“Starlink has resisted Russian cyberwar jamming and hacking attempts so far, but they’re ramping up their efforts,” Musk tweeted May 10.

Earlier that day, the United States formally blamed Russia for a late February cyberattack on Viasat’s KA-SAT satellite internet network.

[...]

Some KA-SAT customers have had to replace modems to continue using the network, which Viasat says is now stabilized.

Warning: Disturbing Video
Surveillance video shows Russian forces shooting civilians (CNN)

New surveillance video obtained by CNN shows Russian soldiers shooting two civilians in the back, providing a stark example of a potential war crime by Russian forces.

Rand Paul blocks bipartisan effort to swiftly pass Ukraine aid (CNN)

In a rare showing of public unity, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell took to the Senate floor to press for quick passage of a $40 billion aid bill for Ukraine but were blocked by GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky who is demanding changes to the legislation.

Despite the high-profile pressure from the two leaders, Paul refused to blink, meaning that Schumer will need to take procedural steps to overcome his objection, which could take several days, but will ultimately lead to passage of the supplemental spending bill sometime next week.

McConnell and Schumer on Thursday offered to allow a vote on Paul's amendment, but he insisted it be added to the underlying bill. The change Paul is seeking would create a special inspector general to oversee how the Ukraine military aid is spent. Members from both parties broadly agree with that notion, but forcing a change to the bill at this stage would be very time consuming and would slow getting the needed aid to Ukraine.

"The package is ready to go," Schumer said. "The vast majority of senators on both sides of the aisle want it. There's now only one thing holding us back the junior senator from Kentucky is preventing swift passage of Ukraine aid because he wants to add at the last minute his own changes directly into the bill. His change is strongly opposed by many members of both parties."

"We should vote on Senator Paul's amendment, and then we should pass the supplemental and we should do it today," McConnell added.

"My oath of office is the US constitution not to any foreign nation and no matter how sympathetic the cause, my oath of office is to the national security of the United States of America," Paul said in his remarks before objecting to moving to swift passage of the bill. "We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy."

Schumer responded that "it's clear from the junior senator from Kentucky's remarks he doesn't want to aid Ukraine."

"That is not the case for the overwhelming majority here," Schumer said. "Again all he will accomplish with his actions here today is to delay that aid. Not to stop it."

Ukraine halts some Russian gas flows to Europe

[...] in a statement late Tuesday, the Ukrainian gas transmission system operator (GTSOU) said it had decided to suspend operations at a major transit point because of "interference by the occupying forces." The Sokhranivka measuring station handles as much as 32.6 million cubic meters per day, or about a third of the Russian gas that flows via Ukraine to Europe, the operator said.

"As a result of the Russian Federation's military aggression against Ukraine, several GTS facilities are located in territory temporarily controlled by Russian troops and the occupation administration," it said, adding that Russian interference, including the unauthorized diversion of gas, had "endangered the stability and safety" of the system.

Ukraine said gas volumes could be shifted instead to the Sudzha transit point further west in territory it controls, and pointed to a similar move it said took place in 2020 to allow repairs to be carried out.

But Russia's state gas company, Gazprom, said in a statement that such a reconfiguration would be "technically impossible," adding that it saw no reason for the disruption.

(Sudzha seems to be in Russia northwest of Kharkiv, across the border from Sumy. Perhaps the transit point is on the Ukrainian side?)

Zongqiang Luo, natural gas analyst at Rystad Energy, said that no particular country was likely to feel an "immediate impact" because Europe's gas grid is well connected.

Gas flows through Sokhranivka have averaged at about 23 million cubic meters per day in May, he added. The Sudzha transit point could add 13 million cubic meters to its gas flow to help offset the shock.

But the shortfall would make it harder to refill storage tanks before winter and would "hasten Europe's plans to move away from imports of Russian gas," he wrote in a research note.

EU gas storage facilities are about 37% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That's about normal for the time of year, but well short of the 80% target the bloc has set for November.

The new risks come just as a solution appeared to be emerging for what has been the main headache for weeks — Moscow’s demand for ruble payments for its gas. Companies were increasingly confident they could keep buying Russian supplies without breaching sanctions, with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi on Wednesday appearing to back such a move. More European buyers are opening ruble accounts.

Looking to Help Ukrainian Refugees? A ‘Voluntourism’ Guide
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/travel/ukraine-refugees-poland-voluntourism.html