Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 18

Pentagon Says Accounting Mistake Leaves U.S. With $3 Billion More in Arms for Ukraine archived
https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-error-leaves-pentagon-with-3-billion-more-in-arms-for-ukraine-u-s-says-6d6f4576

The Pentagon has overcounted the value of the weaponry it has sent to Ukraine by at least $3 billion, an error that could eliminate the need to ask Congress for more money to keep Kyiv in the fight this spring, people familiar with the situation said.

The military services inadvertently used a higher value for at least some of the weaponry the Pentagon sent to Ukraine, using valuations for new equipment instead of the older gear pulled out of U.S. stockpiles, the people said.

An internal audit identified the difference in March, and now the Biden administration may not need to seek additional funding from Congress for next year, the people said. The Pentagon has sent nearly $40 billion in military aid to help Ukraine defend itself since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Accounting used in announcements of military aid since the error was discovered have all been correct, Pentagon officials said. Military officials are reviewing past announcements of assistance to ensure they didn’t miss anything else. The overall value of the accounting error could grow, officials said.

Happy little accident.

I'd like to leave two twitter threads here, because I find they highlight a perspective on the whole F-16 debate that I haven't seen expressed as clearly and credibly elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1660261077026762753

https://twitter.com/TJOSInt/status/1659757656997871619

TL;DR: F-16s are difficult to maintain, and they're designed to be maintained on the front lines by highly skilled technicians. It's also likely that Ukraine will get maintenance-heavy older aircraft with lesser capabilities. They're not suitable to be operated on ad-hoc airfields, like e.g. Mig-29s are. They require an immaculate airfield, which means Russia will have an easier time identifying their location and disrupting operations. It is also a pipe-dream to think that Ukraine could seriously contest russian air superiority. There won't be a Desert Storm style air campaign; there probably won't even be denial of Russian airspace to Russian aircraft. With clever use of data link, F-16s can still be dangerous in an air-to-air role, but mostly the advantage is in enabling the (better) use of air-launched cruise missiles and HARM. This isn't to say we shouldn't send them, but that we should temper our expectations for when they will have an impact, and how large that impact will be.

Personal thoughts: I'm more and more confident there should've been some Saab Gripens in there as well, at least if air-to-air missions are important. More capable of using improvised airfields, higher-range missiles (MBDA Meteor) and a more modern, presumably higher-performance radar. Having merely the threat of a Gripen in the air would force Russia to fly a lot more cautiously, as they might just be the outranged ones now.[*] For ground strikes, I think nothing beats compatibility with the US arsenal, so F-16 is a decent choice there. Assuming NATO/EU make rational decisions in close coordination with Ukraine, I can only assume that Ukraine isn't particularly interested in air-to-air; or that Gripen training is underway secretly. If we don't assume rational decisions (or assume that the relevant governments know more than me, I guess :D), the fighter coalition could be betting too much money on the wrong horse.

I'm leaning towards the assumption that Ukraine doesn't care that much for air-to-air; their air defenses are solid enough and improving steadily, and actually contesting Russia's air space would entail suppression of Russian air defense, which is just not reasonable. There isn't much to be gained by air-to-air missions that you can't do from the ground. Hence, air-to-ground missions. And hence F-16. I suppose if they had their way, Ukraine would love a plane that maintains and operates like a Gripen and has the weapons compatibility list of an F-16.

Also credit to the reddit user who posted them on a german sub.

[*] To illustrate this, imagine flying a Mig-31 on your regular combat air patrol a good bit behind Russian lines. You're pretty much waiting for a chance target to pop up behind Ukrainian lines. You'd then lob a missile at it without ever being in danger yourself. During these patrols, your radar warning receiver is constantly alerting you to the fact there's a Patriot or IRIS-T or other western SAM system in Ukraine, and it can probably see you. But that's ok, you're far out of range of their missiles. You know where the missiles are, you know their range, you're safe. Now if you have to assume that there might be a gripen in the air, you're in deep shit. The Gripen could keep its radar off, sneak up on you as close as reasonably possible without being detected by your own radar or that of your own SAMs. The Gripen knows where you are, because it's data linked to the Patriot site. Once in range, it'll lob a missile your way. That missile goes marching all the way across the front line, 100, 150km or so. All the while, to you, esteemed Mig-31 driver, it all seems fairly routine. Sure, there's a Patriot site somewhere in the distance, looking for stuff, but it's far enough away. Once the Meteor is close enough to you that you can't reasonably escape anymore, it turns on its own radar to home in on you. Your radar warning receiver screams what can only be summed up as "we're all going to die!". There's seconds left until impact, and no maneuver you do could possibly prevent that. That hypothetical, that threat is why Russia would have to push back its own air activity if Ukraine had Meteor missiles.

US signals to allies it won’t block their export of F-16 jets to Ukraine (CNN)

The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.

Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.

A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.

While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.

US lawmakers and congressional staffers have joined in the F-16 lobbying campaign, urging the administration to provide the jets so that Ukraine can establish control over its skies.

“As a bipartisan group of lawmakers, we view the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine as essential for providing Kyiv with the air support capability required to fully defend their nation against Russia’s unprovoked, illegal, and brutal invasion, and to make the territorial gains necessary to reclaim their country,” a group of Republican and Democratic lawmakers wrote in a letter to President Joe Biden on Wednesday that was obtained by CNN.

The issue is expected to be a subject of debate at the next NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July, officials said.

For anyone who's been napping and not really following things too closely:

Something is happening - I'm not exactly sure what, and the signal/noise ratio is bad right now. It could be mostly psyop, but it seems like something is going on at the least. Ukraine-aligned Russian partisans/deserters are occupying Russian territory near the border, it seems?

This is, as far as I can see right now, a very minor development as far as the hard facts go. It could be a Ukrainian-sanctioned incursion into Russia, which is something we haven't really seen before in such an overt way. But beyond that: it's very local, and unlikely to affect the situation all too much. It might develop into something bigger, or these guys might disappear into the woodwork and wreak havoc on Russia behind the front lines. Who knows, at this point.

If there's one thing I can say for certain, it's that /r/noncredibledefense is having a blast right now.