25 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - June 1

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

10 comments

  1. [5]
    streblo
    Link
    Apparently, there are reasons to believe the much awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive may be kicking off.

    Apparently, there are reasons to believe the much awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive may be kicking off.

    9 votes
    1. [3]
      streblo
      Link Parent
      Economist: Ukraine’s counter-offensive appears to have begun.
      9 votes
      1. [2]
        unkz
        Link Parent
        Paywall, Article: For months a guessing game has played out in military circles worldwide: where and when would Ukraine conduct its counter-offensive? Most expected it to come through Zaporizhia...

        Paywall,

        Article: For months a guessing game has played out in military circles worldwide: where and when would Ukraine conduct its counter-offensive? Most expected it to come through Zaporizhia province, in the south of the country, perhaps directed at the city of Melitopol, with the aim of cutting the “land bridge” seized by Russian troops at the start of the war that connects occupied Crimea with Russia itself. Western officials had expected the offensive to begin two weeks ago, and some were getting impatient.

        On June 4th—two days before the anniversary of D-Day, the start of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis—Ukrainian forces launched what Russia’s defence ministry called a “large-scale” assault on five axes in the south-east of Donetsk province, in eastern Ukraine. Some of them may indeed threaten the land bridge; others were further to the north. Western officials tell The Economist that this does in fact mark the start of the offensive, with attacks also under way on other parts of the front. Yet the cream of Ukraine’s forces has not yet appeared on the battlefield.

        One Ukrainian attack took place around Velyka Novosilka, a minor settlement south-west of Donetsk city. Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of a Russian militia in Donetsk, said that Ukraine had followed up that attack by pretending to pull its forces back and then striking later at Novodonetske, around 12km to the south-east. The Ukrainians had conducted a successful assault with a limited strike force of just ten armoured vehicles, he said, adding that they had also disrupted Russian communications. Russia’s defence ministry said that Ukraine had thrown its 23rd and 31st mechanised brigades, including two tank battalions, at the front.

        There have been advances elsewhere, too. Ukrainian forces are understood to have regained territory in the western and northern suburbs of Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk that has been the locus of fighting for much of the past year. Other reports suggested that there was further fighting in the direction of Soledar, just north of Bakhmut. Russia claimed that the ground assaults had been repulsed, inflicting heavy losses on Ukraine.

        In fact Ukrainian troops were in Novodonetske by the morning of June 5th, says a Ukrainian source. “News from the…front line is becoming more alarming by the hour,” wrote one popular Russian Telegram channel. A Western official with knowledge of the situation says that Ukraine advanced in the area by up to five or six kilometres. But while Russia’s defence ministry was mounting its media campaign—hailing the role of General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top commander, in the defensive operation—Ukraine’s government has maintained a policy of information lockdown.

        American and European military officials advising Ukraine say that Russia’s defensive lines could be more fragile than thought, and that a fast, violent assault is the best way to minimise casualties on the Ukrainian sides and deny Russian forces the opportunity to reinforce the site of any breakthrough. They suspect that Ukraine has been too cautious in the past, notably during last year’s offensive in Kherson province, where its troops, despite the eventual liberation of Kherson city, allowed thousands of Russian forces to escape with their equipment.

        If Ukraine does intend to reinforce its attacks in Donetsk, it would suggest a slightly more easterly axis of advance than many had supposed. Velyka Novosilka lies around 120km north of Berdyansk, a key port on the Sea of Azov, and part of the land bridge between Russia and Crimea. A southward thrust in Donetsk could also threaten Mariupol, the port city captured and razed by Russia last year. Russian defences are slightly thinner in Donetsk than in Zaporizhia. Many of Russia’s diminished reserves, particularly those from the VDV airborne forces, have also been dragged north to Bakhmut in recent days, probably opening up gaps elsewhere on the front. Ongoing cross-border raids by Ukraine-backed militia into Russia’s Belgorod region, opening up hundreds of kilometres of additional frontlines, have also proved a useful distraction.

        However, Ukraine’s main effort is probably still to come. With the total length of the front around 900km and 12 offensive brigades at its disposal, Ukraine cannot afford to spread itself too thin. It will have to find the best places to break Russian lines along a narrow segment of the front. The task, some Western advisers say, is to force Russia to defend a number of areas at once, stretching its units thin. Russia cannot defend the entire length of the front equally. At this stage Ukraine is still probing Russian forces, looking for vulnerabilities—or creating them—before committing its strongest units.

        Images on social media appeared to show an American-supplied MaxxPro armoured vehicle abandoned near Neskuchne, immediately south-west of Velyka Novosilka. But although the 23rd and 31st brigades have benefited from Western equipment, they are not among the nine Western-supplied and trained brigades that Ukraine has built up over the last six months for the purposes of spearheading an offensive. Those units are equipped with Western tanks and engineering equipment to break through the multi-layered trenches, minefields and fortifications that stretch across Ukraine’s south and east. When they appear in force, there will be no room for ambiguity over whether or not the offensive has started in earnest.■

        9 votes
        1. skybrian
          Link Parent
          Thanks, but to avoid getting Tildes into copyright trouble, our convention is not to quote the entire article. Better to quote some excerpts that you think are particularly interesting, or link to...

          Thanks, but to avoid getting Tildes into copyright trouble, our convention is not to quote the entire article. Better to quote some excerpts that you think are particularly interesting, or link to an archive site. (Or both.)

          8 votes
    2. skybrian
      Link Parent
      Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2023 (ISW) [...]

      Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2023 (ISW)

      Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. ISW offers no assessment of these signals at this time. [...] ISW observed an increase in combat activity in different sectors of the frontline but will not speculate about the intent, weight, or focus of Ukrainian counteroffensives operations. A successful counteroffensive operation may take days, weeks, or even months before its outcome becomes fully clear, during which time Russian sources may falsely claim to have defeated it.

      [...]

      The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia.

      1 vote
  2. TemulentTeatotaler
    Link
    Wagner Group chief appears to escalate Kremlin feud by sitting in front of Ukraine's flag colors and praising the nation's fighting spirit:

    Wagner Group chief appears to escalate Kremlin feud by sitting in front of Ukraine's flag colors and praising the nation's fighting spirit:

    The outspoken head of Russia's notorious Wagner mercenary group praised Ukraine's fighting abilities while sitting in front of the colors of Ukraine's flag.

    In a video address, Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized the Russian establishment for not telling the country's citizens the truth about the "very difficult" situation in Ukraine.

    Behind him, large blue and yellow floor mats appear to be placed in a way that resembles Ukraine's flag. It's not clear if this was intentional.

    The controversial Wagner chief, once a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, has been escalating his public feud with Russia's top officials in recent months.

    He has regularly criticized government and army leaders for not supporting his fighters with needed weaponry. He has butted heads with the army over taking credit for Russian victories in the war.

    He has also spoken scathingly about Russia's elite for protecting their children from being drafted into the war as casualties mount – and has even made a rare veiled dig at Putin.

    8 votes
  3. skybrian
    Link
    What the Ukrainian Armed Forces Need to do to win (War on the Rocks) [...]

    What the Ukrainian Armed Forces Need to do to win (War on the Rocks)

    In our experience, across many units and staffs, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not promote personal initiative and foster mutual trust or mission command. As Michael Kofman and Rob Lee recently discussed on the Russia Contingency podcast, elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have an old Soviet mentality that holds most decision-making at more senior levels. Amongst military leaders at the brigade level and below, our impression is that junior officers fear making mistakes. During our training sessions with field grade officers, we are often asked what the punishment is for failure during missions or making bad decisions. We are also repeatedly asked at each step of planning or operations, “Who is allowed to make this decision?” They are surprised that U.S. battalion battle captains (staff officers who oversee ongoing battalion operations) have the authority to make decisions or give orders on behalf of the battalion commander.

    During training exercises, we have repeatedly observed that the Ukrainian military’s planning process requires separate orders for each phase of the operation. For example, a battalion in the defense cannot conduct a counterattack even if they are attacked. They do not have potential stand-by missions such as “be prepared to counterattack” that are planned in advance to exploit unexpected opportunities. They must await orders. Of course, the Ukrainian military’s planning process is based on local doctrine, and in actual combat, it depends upon the commander. However, what we have observed is that there are serious changes happening throughout the Ukrainian military’s officer corps. The younger officers realize that they must get rid of the old mentality but continue to face resistance from older officers wedded to Soviet doctrine and centralized planning. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee made similar observations after their most recent research trip to the country.

    Having trained every component of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we have continually seen a lack of an experienced noncommissioned officer corps. It is common to see field grade officers running around during training counting personnel and coordinating for meals. In the United States, it takes years to develop just a junior noncommissioned officer. Senior noncommissioned officers at the platoon level have at least ten years of experience. In the U.S. military, lieutenants lead platoons, but it is the job of the platoon sergeant to train them, as discussed in Defense News. In Ukraine, it is the job of a platoon commander straight out of their service academy to lead and train their platoon. Without effective noncommissioned officers, mission command at the company level and below is almost impossible to do, and they are directly responsible for the care, mentoring, and training of soldiers.

    [...]

    Western aid has been critical for Ukraine’s defense. However, the variety of equipment Ukraine now uses has led to significant logistics and maintenance challenges. In our experience, the Ukrainian military cannibalizes new equipment arriving in Ukraine to service equipment deployed in the field. As a result, front-line units only receive a small percentage of what is sent to the country. For example, a .50 caliber machine gun arrives in Ukraine with extra barrels, parts, manuals, and accessories, but by the time it gets to Donbas, all that remains is the gun.

    5 votes
  4. asterisk
    (edited )
    Link
    Today Muscovites destroyed Kaxôvka's HPP. Source: OC «South». Theoretically, it would flood Left bank [currently under Muscovia's controle] more than right [Ukraine] which still be affected,...

    Today Muscovites destroyed Kaxôvka's HPP. Source: OC «South». Theoretically, it would flood Left bank [currently under Muscovia's controle] more than right [Ukraine] which still be affected, Xerson is included. It isn't a new thing for Muscovia's history: the most famous is destroying Dnêpro HPP during the Second World War.

    4 votes
  5. skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up Nova Kakhovka dam near Kherson (The Guardian) [...] [...]

    Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up Nova Kakhovka dam near Kherson (The Guardian)

    As aerial footage circulated on social media, showing most of the dam wall washed away and a massive surge of water heading downstream, the army’s Southern Operational Command put up a Facebook post, accusing “Russian occupation troops” of blowing up the hydroelectric dam.

    The governor of the Kherson region, Oleksandr Prokudin, said that about 16,000 people were in the “critical zone” on the Ukrainian-controlled right bank of the Dnieper. He said people were being evacuated for districts upstream of Kherson city and would be taken to bus to the city and then by train to Mykolaiv, and on to other Ukrainian cities.

    [...]

    The disaster happened on the second day of Ukrainian offensive operations likely to mark the early stages of a mass counteroffensive. It could affect any Ukrainian plans for an amphibious assault across the Dnieper.

    [...]

    There could be two further dramatic side effects, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant upstream could lose access to water for cooling as the reservoir drains away, and the water supply to Crimea could also be severely affected.

    3 votes
  6. EgoEimi
    Link
    Though I support Ukraine's efforts against Russia, as the war progresses, the public should be aware and wary of unsavory elements within the Ukraine government and army, and be aware that much of...

    Though I support Ukraine's efforts against Russia, as the war progresses, the public should be aware and wary of unsavory elements within the Ukraine government and army, and be aware that much of the news we receive is propaganda, even if it is from "our side".

    Americans Were Aware of Intelligence Warning of Ukrainian Pipeline Attacks

    But an intelligence summary posted on a Discord server and obtained by The Washington Post showed that U.S. and European allies had reason to believe even before the September attacks that Ukraine viewed the pipelines as a tempting sabotage target — and had specific details about a planned operation using divers and deepwater equipment.

    ...

    So far, that has not happened. Even as Germany and other European countries have learned of Ukrainian involvement in the pipeline attack, they have nevertheless increased their military aid.

    American officials insisted on Tuesday there has been no determination about who within the Ukrainian government may have planned or authorized the attack. If it is eventually pinned on senior officials, European attitudes about support for Ukraine could change.

    Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History

    In November, during a meeting with Times reporters near the front line, a Ukrainian press officer wore a Totenkopf variation made by a company called R3ICH (pronounced “Reich”). He said he did not believe the patch was affiliated with the Nazis. A second press officer present said other journalists had asked soldiers to remove the patch before taking photographs.

    3 votes