EgoEimi's recent activity
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Comment on We are witnessing the self-immolation of a superpower in ~society
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Comment on We are witnessing the self-immolation of a superpower in ~society
EgoEimi (edited )Link ParentThe Tax Foundation did an excellent analysis breaking down the complexity and side effects of the proposed tax, and how assessment of wealth is not straightforward. The tl;dr: Assessing wealth is...- Exemplary
The Tax Foundation did an excellent analysis breaking down the complexity and side effects of the proposed tax, and how assessment of wealth is not straightforward.
The tl;dr: Assessing wealth is complicated. Billionaires' net worths are inflated because have non-tradable assets like voting shares. The proposed tax leaves open the possibility of the state taxing private assets as publicly tradable, which would make the wealth tax much, much bigger than 5%. It'd be irrational for many billionaires to not leave California.
Californians will think they defeated the billionaire class when really these billionaires are going to take their companies with them elsewhere, and California will be worse off economically for it. If I were so cynical I'd think it'd make a deviously good plot by a Machiavellian ultraconservative think tank to convince Californians to gleefully dismantle their own economic influence.
> Under the initiative, “For any interests that confer voting or other direct control rights, the percentage of the business entity owned by the taxpayer shall be presumed to be not less than the taxpayer’s percentage of the overall voting or other direct control rights.”[2] > > Founders often hold private Class B or other super-voting shares with transfer restrictions preventing them from being sold to the public, but which confer voting control over a publicly traded company. Together, for instance, Larry Page and Sergey Brin own about 11.3 percent of Alphabet (Google) but control 52.3 percent of voting rights. Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg owns about 13.6 percent of Meta but has 61.0 percent voting control.[3] > > It is possible that the California Franchise Tax Board (FTB), charged with administering the new tax, would determine that these shares are publicly tradable because they have an ascertainable value and can be converted into tradeable Class A shares under a dual-class structure. In that case, they would be taxed by their market value.It's complicated. People see 5% and they think it's small, but the tl;dr is that voting shares cause billionaires' net worth to be significantly inflated, and so taxing that inflated net worth is actually onerous. Plus, it makes California a drastically less attractive tax environment.
People think, "we're not going to miss the billionaires." But when the billionaires move, so too will the center of gravity for their companies. Then in 5–10 years, the headquarters will be changed to Austin or Miami. And then 10–20 years, the ecosystem of talent will start shifting over. And everyone knows that California isn't the most business-friendly: it has succeeded in spite of its environment because it lucked out on network effects for tech, biotech, and film and entertainment.
We can see a parallel in LA where the film industry has been struggling. The number of film productions has been dropping by 10–20% YOY, and unemployment in the entertainment sector has been rising. This is due to rising labor costs (the IATSE and SAG union strikes increased the cost of hiring in LA), in combination to other places offering cheaper labor costs and more generous film tax credits. So now, places like New Jersey, Georgia, Toronto, and Vancouver are merging as new film production hubs.
I realize I'm pulling the topic away from the US and toward California. But I see in California the same psychological process: people are experiencing a world that's changing and becoming more competitive, but in search of boogeymen they are leaping for short-term solutions that cause lasting damage to the foundations of their prosperity.
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Comment on We are witnessing the self-immolation of a superpower in ~society
EgoEimi Link ParentI dispute the notion that all the returns are concentrating in the few and none are going to normal people. Everyday Californians are incredibly wealthy: the median Californian has a net worth of...I dispute the notion that all the returns are concentrating in the few and none are going to normal people. Everyday Californians are incredibly wealthy: the median Californian has a net worth of $288k. For comparison, the median American has a net worth of $109k. The median European? A paltry $28k.
There are high housing costs and high living costs, which are driven by high housing costs driving high labor costs, but that is largely a policy issue that Californians inflicted upon themselves through Prop 13 and zoning, which respectively hinder development of high-value urban land and has severely restricted the housing supply from keeping up with the state's expanding and increasingly affluent population.
Besides, California's 200 billionaires only own 7% of the state's wealth. There's a notion/vibe that the billionaires own nearly everything, but that's not true.
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Comment on We are witnessing the self-immolation of a superpower in ~society
EgoEimi LinkThe prosperity of the US is indeed built on boring foundations: market liberalism, a safe and friendly business environment, advanced technology, sound monetary policy, rule of law, military...The prosperity of the US is indeed built on boring foundations: market liberalism, a safe and friendly business environment, advanced technology, sound monetary policy, rule of law, military supremacy, US-centric globalism, etc.
But in our recently digital democracy, people have been riled up to look for easy boogeymen and have forgotten the hard, boring foundations of our prosperity. This happens across the political spectrum, both right and left. Most people I talk to in real life—both liberal and conservative—actually don't know how/why the US is prosperous: they just retreat to the same tired tropes.
An aside, I heard that in California voters are contemplating a tax on unrealized capital gains, and it's a close tie so far. Californians think that they're going to wrest what's theirs back from the evil billionaires, but they don't realize they're actually drawing their knife to their golden goose's neck.
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Comment on Why America needs fewer bus stops in ~transport
EgoEimi Link ParentBut public transit in America is designed for poor people. At a policy level, it's treated as a public good/service to be municipally subsidized for the good of a city's working class — but...But public transit in America is designed for poor people. At a policy level, it's treated as a public good/service to be municipally subsidized for the good of a city's working class — but fundamentally it is not seen as a product to be marketed and sold.
At best, it's a utilitarian experience. At worst, you're dealing with delays, bumpy jerky rides, litter, people blasting music, crowds, some suspicious dark brown stain on your bus' fabric seat that hasn't been cleaned in years, and/or some homeless guy sitting next to you with soiled pants.
In many US cities, public transit is a less comfortable and pleasant experience than private transportation. If you make $70k, then you're probably spending ~$10.5k/year on transportation. You could get yourself a nice used Lexus with comfy seats, a smooth suspension, AC, seat warmers, surround sound system, cup holders, the works.
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Comment on Why America needs fewer bus stops in ~transport
EgoEimi Link ParentThe author wrote: I've observed the same in major European cities. US bus routes have many stops that are only a small sign, whereas European bus routes have fewer stops, but those stops tend to...The author wrote:
By contrast, a bus stop in a French city like Marseille will have shelters and seating by default. Higher quality stops in the city also include real time arrival information, better lighting for safety, level boarding platforms, curb extensions that prevent illegal parking at bus stops, and improved pedestrian infrastructure leading to the stops. Marseille is not a particularly wealthy French city, but because it has wider stop spacing and fewer stops, it can invest more money into each one.
I've observed the same in major European cities. US bus routes have many stops that are only a small sign, whereas European bus routes have fewer stops, but those stops tend to have shelters, digital signage, and the works.
The bigger hurdle in America is getting people to even consider taking the bus.
I think the bus experience in America is just unpleasant. Frequent and aggressive start/stops (as drivers try to keep to schedule) makes for a very choppy ride experience. There are frequent delays, and the bus speed is still overall slow: I've sometimes given up waiting at a bus stop and simply outwalked the bus.
Plus, America has uniquely... interestingly ratchet characters that I have not encountered in such frequency in other wealthy and poor countries alike.
At the same time, Americans are wealthy and most Americans can afford private vehicles, so many prefer to not deal with the public transit experience.
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Comment on Why we are excited about confessions in ~tech
EgoEimi Link ParentThe jury's still out on this one. Some cognitive scientists suspect that consciousness emerges from recursiveness, that is a system thinking about and narrating itself. Consciousness and...The jury's still out on this one.
Some cognitive scientists suspect that consciousness emerges from recursiveness, that is a system thinking about and narrating itself.
Consciousness and intelligence aren't necessarily coupled. For example, people can walk and accomplish complex tasks (like washing dishes) while asleep.
But for sure, there's nothing metaphysically or divinely special about humans, and it's inevitable that we build an intelligence that rivals or surpasses our own.
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Comment on Why the renovation of US Federal Reserve headquarters costs $2.5 billion in ~finance
EgoEimi Link ParentFor $2.5bn you can get a new office building every year for 25 years. From an architectural standpoint, the Federal Reserve Building isn't even remarkable.For $2.5bn you can get a new office building every year for 25 years. From an architectural standpoint, the Federal Reserve Building isn't even remarkable.
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Comment on Why the renovation of US Federal Reserve headquarters costs $2.5 billion in ~finance
EgoEimi Link ParentThat is true. I just feel/think that $2.5bn is mind bogglingly obscene for two mere buildings, and I hope that whatever systems led to this get changed. For comparison, the reconstruction of Notre...That is true. I just feel/think that $2.5bn is mind bogglingly obscene for two mere buildings, and I hope that whatever systems led to this get changed.
For comparison, the reconstruction of Notre Dame—also a large but far more delicate historic preservation project—cost $900m.
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Comment on Iran’s supreme leader signals harsher crackdown as protest movement swells in ~society
EgoEimi LinkAs much as I despise Trump, I find his (well, most likely Marco Rubio's) approach to regime change in Venezuela interesting because: It was relatively bloodless and had almost no civilian...As much as I despise Trump, I find his (well, most likely Marco Rubio's) approach to regime change in Venezuela interesting because:
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It was relatively bloodless and had almost no civilian casualties.
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They did not invade or dismantle the government. Instead they kept existing institutions intact, preventing destabilization of the country. Interestingly, they disempowered an incompetent leader and empowered someone competent: Delcy Rodriguez. This is a radically different, realist approach from past US approaches that'd try to replace a government outright.
Rodriguez is a socialist minister who has been implementing limited market reforms that have helped to somewhat stabilize Venezuela in recent years. Now that she's empowered, she might have a freer hand at implementing market reforms and stabilizing the country further, alleviating the refugee crisis.
Now with Iran, the IRGC is bloodily trying to put down protests. Without assistance, anti-government forces face a very bloody path to overthrowing the government. At this point, regime change seems inevitable: the government has lost the most crucial pillar of legitimacy: the economic pillar, in addition to the social pillar. Now the question is: how many Iranian lives will be expended to achieve regime change?
Limited military intervention—strikes on IRGC and state security sites—by the US and its allies could accelerate the process and reduce the government's ability to violently suppress protesters, thereby saving tens of thousands of lives.
It is easy for us to say, "well, the Iranian people must decide for themselves, we cannot intervene!" The process of "deciding for themselves" is messy and never purely organic. We must remember that the American Revolution would have been impossible if not for the financial and material assistance of France, Spain, and the Netherlands.
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Comment on Why the renovation of US Federal Reserve headquarters costs $2.5 billion in ~finance
EgoEimi LinkApple's spaceship HQ is much larger, has extensive underground infrastructure, uses ultra-high-end materials, and was built in an ultra HCOL with very high construction costs, and it cost just...Apple's spaceship HQ is much larger, has extensive underground infrastructure, uses ultra-high-end materials, and was built in an ultra HCOL with very high construction costs, and it cost just $5bn.
I think sometimes it's just more efficient to tear a building down and build something new.
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Comment on Amazon Pharmacy starts offering Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss pill in ~health
EgoEimi Link Parent$150 breaks down to a (coffee shop) coffee a day, which is pretty good for a drug that can improve quality of life and life expectancy to a life-altering degree.$150 breaks down to a (coffee shop) coffee a day, which is pretty good for a drug that can improve quality of life and life expectancy to a life-altering degree.
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Comment on US households using Ozempic spend less on groceries in ~health
EgoEimi Link ParentInitially when it was released there was a huge shortage (due to overwhelming demand), but now competitors have emerged and production capacity has exploded, so prices have been cratering.Initially when it was released there was a huge shortage (due to overwhelming demand), but now competitors have emerged and production capacity has exploded, so prices have been cratering.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
EgoEimi Link ParentI think anyone who spends enough time in progressive spaces knows that those spaces, like any other space, can have their own share of bullies, sociopaths, and narcissists. And people in...As an extreme example, I'd prefer a kind grandma that uses (what I'd consider) slurs over a cruel bully that speaks politely.
I think anyone who spends enough time in progressive spaces knows that those spaces, like any other space, can have their own share of bullies, sociopaths, and narcissists.
And people in progressive spaces aren't immune to groupthink and misinformation. People across the spectrum fall into the trap of thinking that if they're on the right side then they're thinking the right thoughts.
It's necessary and healthy for a democratic society and its various sub-societies and factions to self-critique.
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Comment on What private companies are you happy doing business with? in ~talk
EgoEimi (edited )Link ParentFrom inside sources, I heard that they worked extremely hard to make AirPods repairable and recyclable. Like, they spent years and burnt out many TPMs before throwing in the towel. I also disagree...The only product in Apple’s lineup that I think planned obsolescence is a problem is their AirPods, which lies entirely in their non-replaceable micro-batteries.
From inside sources, I heard that they worked extremely hard to make AirPods repairable and recyclable. Like, they spent years and burnt out many TPMs before throwing in the towel.
I also disagree with @OBLIVIATOR's assertion that Apple is some e-waste villain. I know through friends that Apple takes recycling extremely seriously and throws real corporate weight into it. It's not just marketing. They have whole teams dedicated to building full recycling supply chains and entire new technologies and equipment to recycle their products. They throw huge corporate resources behind their sustainability efforts, and the executive leadership cares and checks in and holds the teams accountable — so it's not some forgotten department relegated to a back room. It's actually central.
They really do lead the industry in sustainability.
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Comment on What’s a point that you think many people missed? in ~talk
EgoEimi Link ParentIt's crazy how financially illiterate people are. And charitable deductions. I often read and hear people say that wealthy people donate to avoid taxes. They're certainly donating because they...It's crazy how financially illiterate people are.
Similar thoughts to "tax write-offs", which many people think somehow means the government pays you for the entire value of the thing you're writing off.
And charitable deductions. I often read and hear people say that wealthy people donate to avoid taxes. They're certainly donating because they believe in the cause or out of vanity (or likely some combination of both), but they're absolutely not getting ahead financially through philanthropy.
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Comment on What private companies are you happy doing business with? in ~talk
EgoEimi LinkRobert McNeel & Associates are a private, employee-owned software company behind Rhino 3D, one of the most powerful CAD software out there. Its scripting add-on, Grasshopper, is used by all the...Robert McNeel & Associates are a private, employee-owned software company behind Rhino 3D, one of the most powerful CAD software out there. Its scripting add-on, Grasshopper, is used by all the avant garde architecture to create those alien spaceship-looking building designs you see out there.
They're a quiet, unsexy firm and have been developing and refining Rhino 3D for over 30 years. Their software license is expensive ($1000 a seat) but once you buy it it's yours, and their customer support is great (US-based and speak English).
Quality is out there, but you've got to pay for it.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
EgoEimi Link ParentThere are some structural barriers: There are a lot of undocumented Asian immigrants. It's not in the public consciousness: when the public thinks of undocumented immigrants, they think of...There are some structural barriers:
- There are a lot of undocumented Asian immigrants. It's not in the public consciousness: when the public thinks of undocumented immigrants, they think of immigrants from Latin America. They have access to fewer government resources, formal employment, etc.
- Language barriers. The linguistic distance between English and Spanish is much shorter than it is between English and Mandarin/Canatonese/(insert Chinese dialect)/Vietnamese/Thai/Tagalog. Asian immigrants struggle to learn English, and that makes it hard for them to access government and legal resources, employment outside of the Asian community, etc.
- Intergenerational PTSD. There's significant war trauma in Asian refugee communities (Vietnamese, Laotian).
For example, the Hmong American community came here as refugees (the US did a little shadow war in Laos, oops) and is marked by a high poverty rate and low educational success (very high dropout rate, very low college degree attainment), which has resulted in high crime participation rates and Hmong gangs. But in our current framework, they'd be considered overprivileged Asians.
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Comment on US strikes Venezuela and says its leader, Nicolas Maduro, has been captured and flown out of the country in ~society
EgoEimi Link ParentI don't think this action strengthens or weakens those, as those countries are doing what they want anything but are simply constrained by firepower, not by global adherence to international law....I don't think this action strengthens or weakens those, as those countries are doing what they want anything but are simply constrained by firepower, not by global adherence to international law.
Russia tried to pull off a decapitation strike but failed, and it's still continuing its invasion in defiance of international outrage.
China doesn't have the capability to invade Taiwan (yet) due to various factors:
- US and Japan will intervene militarily
- Taiwan is extraordinarily important to the world economy. Advanced chips are far more precious than oil, which is an abundant commodity.
- Taiwan has a capable and advanced military armed by US and Europe. Invading Taiwan is too politically costly for China and could destabilize the CCP: tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of Chinese families will be outraged that their only child was killed or maimed in a vanity military project.
Israel has already been doing what it wants and it's clear that it doesn't care what the international community thinks.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
EgoEimi Link ParentThis is often repeated but incorrect: most police forces in the US trace their origins to European police models (particularly British) which themselves have long histories since time immemorial...It is always worth pointing out that the history of police forces in the United States goes back, in many if not most places, to slave patrols.
This is often repeated but incorrect: most police forces in the US trace their origins to European police models (particularly British) which themselves have long histories since time immemorial when humans began forming polities and began differentiating between politically legitimate and illegitimate violence.
As soon as a law is laid down, the question of how a polity enforces that law (ultimately through monopoly of violence) is answered with some sort of police function.
I think something that gets overlooked is how California wealth inequality is undergirded by inequality in human capital and productivity. The economy is structured around very high value-added industries, which rely on highly educated workers, and California attracts a good number of the planet's most exceptionally educated and productive people.