Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - July 20

Wheat prices rise for a third day as Russia-Ukraine tensions stoke fears of major food crisis (CNBC)

It marks the third consecutive day of price rises. The most actively traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was last seen trading around 1.4% higher at 737.6 cents per bushel, notching a three-week high.

It follows a jump of 8.5% in the previous session, the biggest daily gain in more than a year, on mounting geopolitical tensions. Wheat prices remain well below the peak levels of 1,177.5 cents per bushel reached in May of last year, however.

Should we expect further price increases or is the news that grain shipments aren’t coming priced in now?

New video from Anders Puck Nielsen - Naval war is back after grain deal collapse

In which he discusses what the grain deal meant and what it means militarily now that it's no longer in effect. He also suggests that it's not a coincidence that Ukraine bombed the Kerch bridge on the day that the grain deal was going to expire - leaving Russia with no choice but to choose not to extend it. However this is not necessarily bad, he says, as Ukraine have become rather well equipped in terms of anti-ship weapons and even drones to take out the weak Russian Black Sea forces, meaning they may not be able to actually enforce a blockade

U.S. Says Main Thrust of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Underway

The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss Ukraine’s war plans, cited three reasons.

First, Ukrainian forces have been making plodding but steady progress clearing a path through the dense Russian minefields and other fortifications. Second, they sensed an opportunity with the sacking of the regional Russian commander, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, to exploit turmoil in the local Russian leadership.

Last month, General Popov addressed his troops in a four-minute recording, accusing his superiors of inflicting a blow on his forces by removing him from his post in retaliation for voicing the truth about battlefield problems to senior leadership behind closed doors.

And third, Ukrainian artillery barrages have been steadily attacking Russian artillery, ammunition depots and command posts in areas well behind the front lines, creating a vulnerability to exploit if advancing Ukrainian forces can punch through the Russian defenses, and cause havoc in the rear.

“The Russians are stretched,” a Western official said on Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details and intelligence assessments. “They are still experiencing problems with logistics, supply, personnel and weapons. They’re feeling the pressure.”

Seems like they are attacking Robotyne again. Hopefully with more success this time. In the last two months, Ukraine has been confirmed to have destroyed about 10x the amount of artillery pieces along the front line relative to what they've lost so there is reason to be optimistic I think.

Ukraine is also possibly starting to commit it's reserve breaching force.

Some concurrent concerns from a Russian perspective here:

Not sure if this deserves a separate thread outside of here or not... but I stumbled across this

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/20/1189040872/russia-ukraine-black-sea-grain-ships

How can other countries help draw the line, other than sanctions?

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2023 - https://www.iswresearch.org/2023/07/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_23.html?m=1

Ukraine war: Russia expands pool of men eligible for call-up

Russia is raising the maximum age at which men can be conscripted from 27 to 30, making more of them liable to serve in the armed forces.

The change was passed by the lower house of parliament on Tuesday.

It still needs to approved by the upper house and by President Vladimir Putin, but this is seen as a formality.

BBC News – Robert Greenall – 25th July 2023