The problem with Russian rhetoric is that we've crossed each and every one of their red lines, and they've done nothing. The only thing they have left is their nukes, which wouldn't make a...
The problem with Russian rhetoric is that we've crossed each and every one of their red lines, and they've done nothing. The only thing they have left is their nukes, which wouldn't make a difference in the battlefield, the fallout would hit Moscow, and would probably lose them the little support they have.
I agree that the nukes would cost them much of their remaining international support, but I wouldn’t discount their potential power on the battlefield. Let’s say one or two 1-100 kiloton weapons...
I agree that the nukes would cost them much of their remaining international support, but I wouldn’t discount their potential power on the battlefield. Let’s say one or two 1-100 kiloton weapons are used against a concentrated Ukrainian troop presence that is about to break through Russian defenses.
Those detonations would:
Kill thousands of troops
Injure tens of thousands
Likely cause a panic within the country, which would snare logistics due to people fleeing cities.
Require Ukrainian forces to fight under radiological conditions (CBRN suits, limited stay times, decontamination upon exit)
Divert troops/emergency response services to deal with fallout.
Now, the Ukrainians would almost certainly try again. But this pushes their plans back weeks, giving Russian conventional forces time to regroup and strengthen. The fallout would depend on burst height and wind patterns, but done right they wouldn’t need to worry about fallout landing on Russian soil, let alone Moscow.
It would also likely bring NATO or at least the US into the conflict, which probably outweighs all the positives. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Biden administration has hinted/suggested...
but I wouldn’t discount their potential power on the battlefield. Let’s say one or two 1-100 kiloton weapons are used against a concentrated Ukrainian troop presence that is about to break through Russian defenses
It would also likely bring NATO or at least the US into the conflict, which probably outweighs all the positives.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Biden administration has hinted/suggested there would be a (conventional) response to the usage of tactical nuclear weapons.
Oh I absolutely agree. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a nuclear response from the United States, in the form of an underground test. But for the Russians, they may see employment of...
Oh I absolutely agree. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a nuclear response from the United States, in the form of an underground test. But for the Russians, they may see employment of nuclear weapons, even with all its downsides, to be a matter of national survival. Their model is only as good as their inputs, and they may genuinely believe nuclear weapon use would bring Ukraine to the bargaining table and dissuade the U.S.
Agreed. Isn't nuclear strategy just a jolly little thing, knowing something as infallible as the human mind can reason us to our doom. ;) Luckily, even tactical nuclear weapon use would be...
Their model is only as good as their inputs, and they may genuinely believe nuclear weapon use would bring Ukraine to the bargaining table and dissuade the U.S.
Agreed. Isn't nuclear strategy just a jolly little thing, knowing something as infallible as the human mind can reason us to our doom. ;)
Luckily, even tactical nuclear weapon use would be telegraphed, so the US/NATO would have a small window to hopefully saturate that model with signals of a clear and hopefully unbearable cost.
I think we already did. At the high point of the nuclear sabre rattling, some US general described what the minimum response to nuclear escalation would be: the destruction of the entire Russian...
I think we already did. At the high point of the nuclear sabre rattling, some US general described what the minimum response to nuclear escalation would be: the destruction of the entire Russian sphere of influence short of Russia itself. Syria, Ukraine, everywhere the US can reach, Russians assets would disappear overnight.
I don't know if these things were directly related, but I do think the US let Russia know the consequences of even a single nuke. The immediate end of the war in Ukraine, and the loss of all Russian proxies all around the world.
Yea, I agree that's the case now. In this hypothetical the Russians are deploying their tactical nuclear weapons so whatever previous signals existed have failed. In such a scenario I'm just...
Yea, I agree that's the case now. In this hypothetical the Russians are deploying their tactical nuclear weapons so whatever previous signals existed have failed. In such a scenario I'm just saying the US still has a window to move the needle.
Having read up for many years on nuclear doctrine/strategies of both the US and the (then) Soviet Union during the Cold War, it's pretty sobering material. It's where terms like "megadeath" come...
Having read up for many years on nuclear doctrine/strategies of both the US and the (then) Soviet Union during the Cold War, it's pretty sobering material. It's where terms like "megadeath" come from (the band Megadeth takes their name from it); 1 megadeath is essentially 1 million dead. Reading about things like counterforce and countervalue, you realize this is the terrifying reality behind the scenes of nuclear sabre-rattling. To quote WarGames, "The only winning move is not to play".
How many are they using? 1? 100? There's always the risk that it doesn't go off, and you've given Kyiv a free nuke. I think Putin survives losing this war. I don't think he survives using nuclear...
How many are they using? 1? 100? There's always the risk that it doesn't go off, and you've given Kyiv a free nuke.
I think Putin survives losing this war. I don't think he survives using nuclear weapons. And indeed, their rhetoric around them has decreased significantly. They're not going to use them.
One or two probably, at most five. Even if you are generous, and assume a 50% dud rate (which is high IMO, the Russian nuclear deterrent stays well-funded), five bombs means there’s only a 3.125%...
One or two probably, at most five. Even if you are generous, and assume a 50% dud rate (which is high IMO, the Russian nuclear deterrent stays well-funded), five bombs means there’s only a 3.125% chance of all weapons failing. If they all failed, Kyiv would still have to carefully disassemble mangled up warheads containing collocated high explosives and nuclear material.
I agree that nuclear weapons use would end Putin, if not now then within a few years. But I would not discount the possibility of use, as they could be useful in the right circumstances (I’m thinking against an invasion into the Crimean Peninsula through the isthmus), and they may believe in an existential threat to the Russian state.
If a nuke is even launched, let alone detonated, it will immediately engage the entire world. Russia would have everyone's boots on their ground, not simply sanctions. The world cannot afford to...
If a nuke is even launched, let alone detonated, it will immediately engage the entire world. Russia would have everyone's boots on their ground, not simply sanctions. The world cannot afford to play coy with nukes, otherwise we'll lose out on the protection afforded by MAD. We can't have just a little nuking going on anywhere, nukes must never be excused or reasoned about. The only sane solution is the immediate destruction/imprisonment of the offending nations leadership, otherwise nukes become just another strategic weapon.
There are satellites the world over that monitor for nuclear detonations. A nuclear detonation has a very unique visual signal that cannot be replicated by any other process known on earth, known...
There are satellites the world over that monitor for nuclear detonations. A nuclear detonation has a very unique visual signal that cannot be replicated by any other process known on earth, known as a "double flash". These satellites are designed to spot the unique double flash signature to make sure people are adhering to non-proliferation and test ban treaties. The second a nuke went off anywhere in the world, everyone would know.
It's taken NATO a long time to come around to the fact that Putin is simply a bully who makes big threats on the assumption that if it's outlandish enough no one will risk confronting him. But...
It's taken NATO a long time to come around to the fact that Putin is simply a bully who makes big threats on the assumption that if it's outlandish enough no one will risk confronting him.
But it's a bluff, the way you get a bully to stop pushing is by punching them in the nose. Which is what Ukraine with the help of NATO has finally done and it has completely crumbled Putin's strongman facade.
Not to say he isn't still dangerous, but most of what he says is bluster, and the rest of it is just the minimum he can get away with to lend his threats credibility without causing backlash. Invading Ukraine again turned out to be a miscalculation in that regard, it's just a shame the world didn't step in when he first took Crimea, it could've saved many lives.
These threats are mainly for domestic consumption/ propaganda purposes. “We will annihilate the big bad USA/NATO/WEST, blah blah blah”. I’m not even sure it’s newsworthy in the sense that they’ve...
These threats are mainly for domestic consumption/ propaganda purposes. “We will annihilate the big bad USA/NATO/WEST, blah blah blah”. I’m not even sure it’s newsworthy in the sense that they’ve repeated it so much that it’s turned an into noise. It reminds me of schoolyard bullies, kids with a chip on their shoulder always talking shit and threatening others. That is of course until someone stands up to them and all of a sudden they show just how weak they are.
Yes, Russia will bury NATO... Under what remaining bodies they have left the throw into the meat grinder that would be the Western front. Even with nuclear first strike, they've shown they can't...
Yes, Russia will bury NATO... Under what remaining bodies they have left the throw into the meat grinder that would be the Western front.
Even with nuclear first strike, they've shown they can't completely blitz a relatively undefended neighbor state, they think they can stream roll half of Europe and still have bodies by the time they reach Germany? And, not pretending they're the heroes of every war, but the US could effectively attack them from almost all angles.
Take the nukes back off the table and their conventional troops won't make it to the other side of the Polish border.
Russia should just go back to peddling psyops, ruin more of America's soft power, and try again in a couple decades. Who knows, they might have a competent troop carrier by that point.
At this point, everybody recognizes the different roles and strategy (if any) in the Russian communication. Putin has chosen to be unreachable to international media and uses two sets of puppets...
At this point, everybody recognizes the different roles and strategy (if any) in the Russian communication.
Putin has chosen to be unreachable to international media and uses two sets of puppets instead:
Medvedev is the "crazy guy", tasked with releasing extreme opinions and statements, to test the waters and gauge the international community reaction about the underlying message, whether is NATO threats or nukes flailing.
Lavrov and to a lesser extent Shoigu are the ones to pay attention to when they speak, as they're effectively Putin's Metatron. Whether they make sense or not, it's likely that whatever they convey comes from him.
“Whether you like it, or not, history is on our side. We will bury you,” Medvedev said quoting former USSR leader Nikita Khrushchev.
Writing on Twitter, now X, he said: "Ukrainian criminals have announced that any strikes of theirs against whatever Russian target, “for example, in Crimea” were approved by NATO."
"If it is true – and there is no reason to doubt it is – then, this is a direct legally significant proof of the West’s complicity in the war against Russia. It is a refined casus belli, and for Russia, it is an opportunity to act within the jus ad bellum framework against each and every NATO country."
Part of just war theory, which was first developed in ancient Greece and is still used by some Christians today, casus belli is an act or situation that morally justifies conflict, with jus ad bellum referring to conditions under which a state can resort to war.
Medvedev has often taken to social media to write provocative and inflammatory statements about the Ukraine war and its Western allies.
Medvedev warned "apocalypse" was "drawing nearer", quoting biblical verse and old Soviet leaders.
These included: “And in those days shall men seek death, and shall not find it; and shall desire to die, and death shall flee from them,” from Revelation 9:6, the final book of the New Testament in the bible.
He then added: “We are remembered until we stand in the others’ way,” attributed to Vladimir Lenin, who led the Bolshevik Revolution and was the Soviet Union's first leader.
Most of Medvedev's past threats have rung hollow or provoked ridicule online from large numbers of social media users.
Medvedev is either actually insane, or is trying to pretend to be insane so that he doesn't fall out of a window for being a potential successor to Putin. There's no point in trying to understand...
Medvedev is either actually insane, or is trying to pretend to be insane so that he doesn't fall out of a window for being a potential successor to Putin.
There's no point in trying to understand the logic behind his statements, because there isn't any.
The thing about Russian politicians is that you need to remember they're not talking to you, they're always talking to their own people. Even when it seems to you that they're talking to the...
The thing about Russian politicians is that you need to remember they're not talking to you, they're always talking to their own people. Even when it seems to you that they're talking to the world.
They know the world doesn't believe a single word coming out of their mouths, but a worryingly large portion of their own population will go "Yay! You give it to the westerners, Medvedev!" and that's their purpose. Posturing for the media.
And actually, looking at the news, some African politicians are believing their schtick too...
Putin keeps a tighter leash on the nuclear weapons side, as he knows that those keep Russia relevant as a diet superpower. While the corruption endemic there has almost certainly affected their...
Putin keeps a tighter leash on the nuclear weapons side, as he knows that those keep Russia relevant as a diet superpower. While the corruption endemic there has almost certainly affected their nuclear triad, they have ensured it is adequately funded, with multiple options for nuclear response, including missiles capable of reaching the United States. Their ICBM fields are managed under a separate branch entirely. If those fail, they have Long-Range Aviation, if that fails, they have their boomers (ballistic missile subs).
The problem with Russian rhetoric is that we've crossed each and every one of their red lines, and they've done nothing. The only thing they have left is their nukes, which wouldn't make a difference in the battlefield, the fallout would hit Moscow, and would probably lose them the little support they have.
The West has done well in calling their bluffs.
I agree that the nukes would cost them much of their remaining international support, but I wouldn’t discount their potential power on the battlefield. Let’s say one or two 1-100 kiloton weapons are used against a concentrated Ukrainian troop presence that is about to break through Russian defenses.
Those detonations would:
Now, the Ukrainians would almost certainly try again. But this pushes their plans back weeks, giving Russian conventional forces time to regroup and strengthen. The fallout would depend on burst height and wind patterns, but done right they wouldn’t need to worry about fallout landing on Russian soil, let alone Moscow.
It would also likely bring NATO or at least the US into the conflict, which probably outweighs all the positives.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Biden administration has hinted/suggested there would be a (conventional) response to the usage of tactical nuclear weapons.
Oh I absolutely agree. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a nuclear response from the United States, in the form of an underground test. But for the Russians, they may see employment of nuclear weapons, even with all its downsides, to be a matter of national survival. Their model is only as good as their inputs, and they may genuinely believe nuclear weapon use would bring Ukraine to the bargaining table and dissuade the U.S.
Agreed. Isn't nuclear strategy just a jolly little thing, knowing something as infallible as the human mind can reason us to our doom. ;)
Luckily, even tactical nuclear weapon use would be telegraphed, so the US/NATO would have a small window to hopefully saturate that model with signals of a clear and hopefully unbearable cost.
I think we already did. At the high point of the nuclear sabre rattling, some US general described what the minimum response to nuclear escalation would be: the destruction of the entire Russian sphere of influence short of Russia itself. Syria, Ukraine, everywhere the US can reach, Russians assets would disappear overnight.
I don't know if these things were directly related, but I do think the US let Russia know the consequences of even a single nuke. The immediate end of the war in Ukraine, and the loss of all Russian proxies all around the world.
Yea, I agree that's the case now. In this hypothetical the Russians are deploying their tactical nuclear weapons so whatever previous signals existed have failed. In such a scenario I'm just saying the US still has a window to move the needle.
Having read up for many years on nuclear doctrine/strategies of both the US and the (then) Soviet Union during the Cold War, it's pretty sobering material. It's where terms like "megadeath" come from (the band Megadeth takes their name from it); 1 megadeath is essentially 1 million dead. Reading about things like counterforce and countervalue, you realize this is the terrifying reality behind the scenes of nuclear sabre-rattling. To quote WarGames, "The only winning move is not to play".
How many are they using? 1? 100? There's always the risk that it doesn't go off, and you've given Kyiv a free nuke.
I think Putin survives losing this war. I don't think he survives using nuclear weapons. And indeed, their rhetoric around them has decreased significantly. They're not going to use them.
One or two probably, at most five. Even if you are generous, and assume a 50% dud rate (which is high IMO, the Russian nuclear deterrent stays well-funded), five bombs means there’s only a 3.125% chance of all weapons failing. If they all failed, Kyiv would still have to carefully disassemble mangled up warheads containing collocated high explosives and nuclear material.
I agree that nuclear weapons use would end Putin, if not now then within a few years. But I would not discount the possibility of use, as they could be useful in the right circumstances (I’m thinking against an invasion into the Crimean Peninsula through the isthmus), and they may believe in an existential threat to the Russian state.
If a nuke is even launched, let alone detonated, it will immediately engage the entire world. Russia would have everyone's boots on their ground, not simply sanctions. The world cannot afford to play coy with nukes, otherwise we'll lose out on the protection afforded by MAD. We can't have just a little nuking going on anywhere, nukes must never be excused or reasoned about. The only sane solution is the immediate destruction/imprisonment of the offending nations leadership, otherwise nukes become just another strategic weapon.
There are satellites the world over that monitor for nuclear detonations. A nuclear detonation has a very unique visual signal that cannot be replicated by any other process known on earth, known as a "double flash". These satellites are designed to spot the unique double flash signature to make sure people are adhering to non-proliferation and test ban treaties. The second a nuke went off anywhere in the world, everyone would know.
It's taken NATO a long time to come around to the fact that Putin is simply a bully who makes big threats on the assumption that if it's outlandish enough no one will risk confronting him.
But it's a bluff, the way you get a bully to stop pushing is by punching them in the nose. Which is what Ukraine with the help of NATO has finally done and it has completely crumbled Putin's strongman facade.
Not to say he isn't still dangerous, but most of what he says is bluster, and the rest of it is just the minimum he can get away with to lend his threats credibility without causing backlash. Invading Ukraine again turned out to be a miscalculation in that regard, it's just a shame the world didn't step in when he first took Crimea, it could've saved many lives.
These threats are mainly for domestic consumption/ propaganda purposes. “We will annihilate the big bad USA/NATO/WEST, blah blah blah”. I’m not even sure it’s newsworthy in the sense that they’ve repeated it so much that it’s turned an into noise. It reminds me of schoolyard bullies, kids with a chip on their shoulder always talking shit and threatening others. That is of course until someone stands up to them and all of a sudden they show just how weak they are.
Yes, Russia will bury NATO... Under what remaining bodies they have left the throw into the meat grinder that would be the Western front.
Even with nuclear first strike, they've shown they can't completely blitz a relatively undefended neighbor state, they think they can stream roll half of Europe and still have bodies by the time they reach Germany? And, not pretending they're the heroes of every war, but the US could effectively attack them from almost all angles.
Take the nukes back off the table and their conventional troops won't make it to the other side of the Polish border.
Russia should just go back to peddling psyops, ruin more of America's soft power, and try again in a couple decades. Who knows, they might have a competent troop carrier by that point.
At this point, everybody recognizes the different roles and strategy (if any) in the Russian communication.
Putin has chosen to be unreachable to international media and uses two sets of puppets instead:
Medvedev is the "crazy guy", tasked with releasing extreme opinions and statements, to test the waters and gauge the international community reaction about the underlying message, whether is NATO threats or nukes flailing.
Lavrov and to a lesser extent Shoigu are the ones to pay attention to when they speak, as they're effectively Putin's Metatron. Whether they make sense or not, it's likely that whatever they convey comes from him.
Joshua Askew
Medvedev is either actually insane, or is trying to pretend to be insane so that he doesn't fall out of a window for being a potential successor to Putin.
There's no point in trying to understand the logic behind his statements, because there isn't any.
The thing about Russian politicians is that you need to remember they're not talking to you, they're always talking to their own people. Even when it seems to you that they're talking to the world.
They know the world doesn't believe a single word coming out of their mouths, but a worryingly large portion of their own population will go "Yay! You give it to the westerners, Medvedev!" and that's their purpose. Posturing for the media.
And actually, looking at the news, some African politicians are believing their schtick too...
Putin keeps a tighter leash on the nuclear weapons side, as he knows that those keep Russia relevant as a diet superpower. While the corruption endemic there has almost certainly affected their nuclear triad, they have ensured it is adequately funded, with multiple options for nuclear response, including missiles capable of reaching the United States. Their ICBM fields are managed under a separate branch entirely. If those fail, they have Long-Range Aviation, if that fails, they have their boomers (ballistic missile subs).