I gotta say, I'm surprised. Orbán seemed serious about this, to the extent where I wasn't sure how he could change his mind without looking like a tool.
I gotta say, I'm surprised. Orbán seemed serious about this, to the extent where I wasn't sure how he could change his mind without looking like a tool.
What more could he manage to extort? The rest of the EU members seem to be fed up with his nonsense, and increasingly willing to act on those feelings. It seems Orban's play this summit focuses on...
What more could he manage to extort? The rest of the EU members seem to be fed up with his nonsense, and increasingly willing to act on those feelings.
It seems Orban's play this summit focuses on military aid for Ukraine.
This is also the posture-play. Turkey has been "negotiating" its entry to the EU since what, 1987? NATO-ascension for Ukraine also seems like a far-fetched future.
In both cases, the conditions for joining will take years for Ukraine to meet with a concerted, peaceful and stable situation. We seem to be a long way away from an end to the conflict.
But that's the thing, the EU already unblocked the 10bn. What was the point of the threat, if he just backed down? He couldn't and didn't get anything new. EU unity on this is fragile. Slovakia,...
But that's the thing, the EU already unblocked the 10bn. What was the point of the threat, if he just backed down? He couldn't and didn't get anything new.
EU unity on this is fragile. Slovakia, Austria and Italy weren't entirely unsympathetic to Hungary's demands. The Netherlands might be joining them soon, perhaps even France after. Hungary is alone after PiS' loss, but perhaps not for long. Why the fuck rock the boat now?
if his play is military aid, that's the wrong play. It should be legally simpler to find a process through QMV to get that money to Ukraine if Hungary blocks. Accession is the process where unanimity is absolute.
That's why I thought he meant it. Why create bad blood, get isolated, and then be forced to back down?
National politics. There is a strong anti-federalist sentiment inside the country with a desire to have Hungary be a sovereign nation that "will not dance to Brussel's tune" – this is the caption...
What was the point of the threat
National politics. There is a strong anti-federalist sentiment inside the country with a desire to have Hungary be a sovereign nation that "will not dance to Brussel's tune" – this is the caption on posters plastered all over the place right now with Alex Soros and Von der Leyen's faces.
Orban's original message towards his voter base was that they were not going to allow Ukraine in right now because there are other countries that have waited longer and should be prioritized (for example Serbia), due to concerns about minority rights (including the treatment of Hungarian minorities in Zakkarpatia), and due to problems with corruption in Ukraine.
Naturally the major reason for the veto was the withholding of funds but to keep up appearances towards the voters, they need to huff and puff a bit even after getting their pockets filled.
Very relevant to your first paragraph; a law Hungary passed two days ago: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-passes-sovereignty-law-orban-steps-up-campaign-2023-12-12/
His backing down is a farce, as there are literally 90 separate vetos he can use during the negotiations. Which he will probably all use. Every one involved knows this, so the media coverage is...
His backing down is a farce, as there are literally 90 separate vetos he can use during the negotiations. Which he will probably all use. Every one involved knows this, so the media coverage is nothing more than a propaganda move to hold on to the illusion that the eu is fine. It's absolutely screwed, completely defunct by having a veto for every member, which on its own is a good thing, but without the means to vote a member out is a design flaw which, when exploited, doomed the eu beyond retribution.
I gotta say, I'm surprised. Orbán seemed serious about this, to the extent where I wasn't sure how he could change his mind without looking like a tool.
What more could he manage to extort? The rest of the EU members seem to be fed up with his nonsense, and increasingly willing to act on those feelings.
It seems Orban's play this summit focuses on military aid for Ukraine.
This is also the posture-play. Turkey has been "negotiating" its entry to the EU since what, 1987? NATO-ascension for Ukraine also seems like a far-fetched future.
In both cases, the conditions for joining will take years for Ukraine to meet with a concerted, peaceful and stable situation. We seem to be a long way away from an end to the conflict.
But that's the thing, the EU already unblocked the 10bn. What was the point of the threat, if he just backed down? He couldn't and didn't get anything new.
EU unity on this is fragile. Slovakia, Austria and Italy weren't entirely unsympathetic to Hungary's demands. The Netherlands might be joining them soon, perhaps even France after. Hungary is alone after PiS' loss, but perhaps not for long. Why the fuck rock the boat now?
if his play is military aid, that's the wrong play. It should be legally simpler to find a process through QMV to get that money to Ukraine if Hungary blocks. Accession is the process where unanimity is absolute.
That's why I thought he meant it. Why create bad blood, get isolated, and then be forced to back down?
National politics. There is a strong anti-federalist sentiment inside the country with a desire to have Hungary be a sovereign nation that "will not dance to Brussel's tune" – this is the caption on posters plastered all over the place right now with Alex Soros and Von der Leyen's faces.
Orban's original message towards his voter base was that they were not going to allow Ukraine in right now because there are other countries that have waited longer and should be prioritized (for example Serbia), due to concerns about minority rights (including the treatment of Hungarian minorities in Zakkarpatia), and due to problems with corruption in Ukraine.
Naturally the major reason for the veto was the withholding of funds but to keep up appearances towards the voters, they need to huff and puff a bit even after getting their pockets filled.
Very relevant to your first paragraph; a law Hungary passed two days ago: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-passes-sovereignty-law-orban-steps-up-campaign-2023-12-12/
Oh my, surely they learn from Russia..
His backing down is a farce, as there are literally 90 separate vetos he can use during the negotiations. Which he will probably all use. Every one involved knows this, so the media coverage is nothing more than a propaganda move to hold on to the illusion that the eu is fine. It's absolutely screwed, completely defunct by having a veto for every member, which on its own is a good thing, but without the means to vote a member out is a design flaw which, when exploited, doomed the eu beyond retribution.
There's a billion places to veto, but it would've done real damage to the war effort and morale to veto now. He didn't.
To no ones surprise: Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine